Current State of Reds and Beyond

[Redsfan1507]

The Reds lose because they have less talent than their opposition. They won't win much until that is reversed.

 

[JohnU]

Or it's JJ Hooover throwing still another telegraphed 2-seamer.

 

[Redsfan1507]

You can tell winning teams from losing teams by the way they handle failure. Winning teams replace failures with successes, and losing teams talk about how hard the failure is working.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I do believe baseball is a game of streaks, and over time, everything usually winds up close to where it should be. The good news there is, I'm sure Joey Votto will hit better than .218, and Suarez won't have 45 errors. The concerning thing is that hitting under .250 for a quarter of the season requires hitting .350 for an unusually long time to end up at .300, and a 25 % improvement might still leave Suarez with 30 E's.

My biggest concerns are that Hamilton, Schebler, and two thirds of the pitching staff really are nearly as bad as they seem, Cozart really hasn't become a .380 hitter, and Mesoraco might never swing the same way he did in 2014 again.

I keep telling myself how hard it is to lose 98 games...but it appears lately, our Reds might have perfected how to do that.

 

[eburg5000]

Wonder what were going to get tonight with Simon on the mound?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Simon's go to pitch is his split finger. He hasn't been able to command it early on. If he's throwing it for strikes he'll pitch better, if not... expect another poor performance.

Overall Mesoraco has hit a descent % of his balls in play hard and hasn't struck out any more than normal. He's hit hard line drives and groundballs, but he hasn't been elevating the ball having gone 0-8 on flyballs in his first 50 AB's and continues to be a pull-a-holic hitting into the shift. The inability to elevate the ball is something new and I'd have to think it's directly related to his hip.

 

[JohnU]

Meso has no pull power now and he's not quite skilled enough to adjust. He's currently the No. 2 guy on the depth chart and I would think he might be No. 3 before much longer.

 

[JohnU]

Gotta wonder when the Reds will lose their 60th game. Can they make it till the All Star break?

 

[JohnU]

Moving forward, it's clear the Reds need to make decisive and swift changes in the bullpen.
Another starter on the DL suggests something when I look at the league and see zero evidence that other teams are suffering from this much bad luck.
Cingrani's tenure probably ought to be at an end but that presumes Cody Reed is a useful alternative.
Adleman's debut was encouraging against a team that had not seen him before. Still, he seemed pretty much capable of controlling the zone.
Obviously Hoover isn't getting much respect. Gotta wonder who goes when some of the wayward injured trickle back into the clubhouse. Seems like rehab is a 5-letter word to the Reds medical staff.

 

[eburg5000]

I was actually expecting Hoover to come in in the ninth.

 

[eburg5000]

I was actually expecting Hoover to come in in the ninth.

 

[eburg5000]

Not sure why that posted twice, but Probably has something to do with windows 10

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Adleman pitched much better than what we're used to seeing from a call up. There's nothing in his past that suggest he'd pitch that well, but if nothing else he earned another start. What he does with the opportunity.... who knows?

When it comes to Stephenson and Cody Reed the Reds have made it pretty clear to me that they're not going to be using MLB service time to develop, sit between starts, or pitch out of the bullpen. They need to move some of their SP's into those roles, but I think the Reds are hanging their hat on those two being top of the rotation work horses.

The FO continues to be reluctant to DFA players. They moved Kyle Skipworth to the 60 DL to add Adleman. Catcher Kyle Skipworth has no value beyond minor league fodder and I'd be surprised if another team would claim him off waivers.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Not sure what I keep hitting to change the font on my smart phone, but none of my post is meant to be bold or enlarged.

 

[JohnU]

I think we're all OK with the errors that happen on this platform. The least problem we have is double-posting. At least we aren't being trolled.

My concern moving forward on ANY young pitcher is that the Reds organization seems to produce a lot of snakebite on these pitchers. We used to blame Baker for all that. Looks like Dusty has a lot of control over the fact that the entire Reds rotation is on the DL. Thanks to Dan Straily, Tim Adleman and Pasta Alfredo, they don't have to use a pitching machine for 9 innings.

I thought Straily looked like a long reliever but now, he looks durable enough to be the backend of the rotation, possibly decent trade fodder in June. I think Finnegan has sewed up a rotation spot. Iglesias is in ... if he hasn't wrecked that shoulder. If it was an elbow, I would be less worried, even with TJ as a likely outcome.

They will probably endure Cingrani and Hoover this year since there isn't much out there that's better. Sad to see young guys watch from the dugout as their QS efforts end up in a no-decision or a loss.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Straiy has performed well in whichever role they've asked of him. The Reds look to have a plethora of backend rotation guys; Moscot, Lamb, Travieso, and more.

IMO
DeSclafani is a backend rotation pitcher and I'd put Iglesias as a middle of the rotation guy if he proves durable enough to pitch every five days. Finnegan is a hard one for me too call.... middle rotation or bullpen setup man. Homer....who knows?

The Reds really need Stephenson and Reed to pan out. They do have the #2 overall pick this June...maybe a future ace? It'll be interesting to see which direction they draft. They have 3 of the top 43 picks this year.

I think this team needs to be actively trying to trade some of its minor league pitching to balance the overall organizationsl depth. The cupboard is still bare when it comes to outfielders. All these minor league pitchers aren't going to work out and they've got to get some value while some remains.

 

[JohnU]

Everything else aside, we are still not clear on the short-term impact MLB will have with Cuba.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I could see the day when Cubans are made available to the MLB through a system similiar to the Asian Posting System.

Nearly all International players have someone getting their hand greased to hook up with a Major League team. The kids from the Dominican Republic have buscones (street agents) and then there's the posting system.....I'm sure the Cuban government could play nice for a not so small service fee.

 

[eburg5000]

I think Castro made that pretty clear about the "not so small service fee"

 

[eburg5000]

As for Straily, He was a lucky pickup. I think a lot of teams would like to have him. That would be in they're bullpen or a 5th starter. He's already "eaten more innings than Simon, And he keeps you in the game.