Assessing a QB (Beyond Competency)

[Stymietee]

I’ve read many posts and articles on Sam Howell, most proclaiming that it’s too early to tell what he is or is not on the professional level, which is absolutely true if you’re looking at the level of competency as your marker. While it is vitally important that your QB maintains some level of competency, the higher the better, competency isn’t the primary marker used to judge your QB… Team Fit is that marker.

Before I go on, let me remind you of a few other things that lend themselves to this discussion. (Apologies to those who would prefer Dr Seuss over Tolstoy)

1. How to build your team… some argue that you build the team first then get your QB while others insist that getting that guy at QB is the first thing that you do.
2. The ultimate goal is long annual playoff runs and championships
3. There are 3 basic types of QBs

A. Generational talents… These guys not only answer all questions but elevate the play of everyone around them. They are indeed rare and comprise about 3-5% of the league.

B. Highly competent in a system that fits their distributive talents… Every one of these guys are dependent upon how well they fit on a team that’s built to win. They can be found on teams stocked with dominant players elsewhere in key positions. (Think Brock Purdy and the 49ers, Stafford being traded to the Rams, etc.) These guys aren’t as rare but you’d have to have an imaginative, highly proficient, management team to pull it off. Right now I’d say that they make up approximately 20-25% of the league but putting Purdy, Stafford, and a couple of others aside most are not a very good fit where they currently work.

C. Everyone else… Primarily identifiable as Journeymen to good enough to start in the NFL… They are usually backups or starters who give you moments of hope but either don’t have the team around them to be more than average or don’t have the skill set to elevate team play. This group makes up approximately 70-77% of the league.

The Commanders don’t have a dominating offensive line, they don’t have stud game-changing skill players at any position on the offense side of the ball and their current starting QB isn’t the type to elevate the play of anyone currently on this team. Can they win games with him... absolutely, but remember the goals outlined in #2 above. Since the focus on this board has been Sam Howell, ask yourself the one glaring question about him after considering the current makeup of this team… is he the type that best fits this team if the goal is consistent playoff runs and championships?

Is he a generational talent? …No!

Is he on a team built to win? …No!

Is he on a team that has game-changing players? …No!

Is he the type that can elevate the play of his current teammates? … No!

(Let me know if there is a type that I've not identified)

 

[deanpet21]

I’ve read many posts and articles on Sam Howell, most proclaiming that it’s too early to tell what he is or is not on the professional level, which is absolutely true if you’re looking at the level of competency as your marker. While it is vitally important that your QB maintains some level of competency, the higher the better, competency isn’t the primary marker used to judge your QB… Team Fit is that marker.

Before I go on, let me remind you of a few other things that lend themselves to this discussion. (Apologies to those who would prefer Dr Seuss over Tolstoy)

1. How to build your team… some argue that you build the team first then get your QB while others insist that getting that guy at QB is the first thing that you do.
2. The ultimate goal is long annual playoff runs and championships
3. There are 3 basic types of QBs

A. Generational talents… These guys not only answer all questions but elevate the play of everyone around them. They are indeed rare and comprise about 3-5% of the league.

B. Highly competent in a system that fits their distributive talents… Every one of these guys are dependent upon how well they fit on a team that’s built to win. They can be found on teams stocked with dominant players elsewhere in key positions. (Think Brock Purdy and the 49ers, Stafford being traded to the Rams, etc.) These guys aren’t as rare but you’d have to have an imaginative, highly proficient, management team to pull it off. Right now I’d say that they make up approximately 20-25% of the league but putting Purdy, Stafford, and a couple of others aside most are not a very good fit where they currently work.

C. Everyone else… Primarily identifiable as Journeymen to good enough to start in the NFL… They are usually backups or starters who give you moments of hope but either don’t have the team around them to be more than average or don’t have the skill set to elevate team play. This group makes up approximately 70-77% of the league.

The Commanders don’t have a dominating offensive line, they don’t have stud game-changing skill players at any position on the offense side of the ball and their current starting QB isn’t the type to elevate the play of anyone currently on this team. Can they win games with him... absolutely, but remember the goals outlined in #2 above. Since the focus on this board has been Sam Howell, ask yourself the one glaring question about him after considering the current makeup of this team… is he the type that best fits this team if the goal is consistent playoff runs and championships?

Is he a generational talent? …No!

Is he on a team built to win? …No!

Is he on a team that has game-changing players? …No!

Is he the type that can elevate the play of his current teammates? … No!

(Let me know if there is a type that I've not identified)

I would say Howell has the arm and the mobility to be the QB. He just has to get the mental part of the game down and we should have something here. IMO he fits in to what EB wants to do.

 

[duke1861]

I would say Howell has the arm and the mobility to be the QB. He just has to get the mental part of the game down and we should have something here. IMO he fits in to what EB wants to do.

He just doesn't have the protection. We won't know what he has talent wise until he has a decent OLine.

 

[deanpet21]

He just doesn't have the protection. We won't know what he has talent wise until he has a decent OLine.

agreed. But would you agree that he has the physical tools to be a successful QB in the league.

 

[duke1861]

agreed. But would you agree that he has the physical tools to be a successful QB in the league.

Yes.

Guts
Arm
Speed
Doesn't get rattled
Accurate
Fearless

Those are mental and physical traits I see about 1/3 into the season so far. I just don't want him to become Patrick Ramsey or David Carr. Rivera is on his way to making sure that happens.

 

[Stymietee]

agreed. But would you agree that he has the physical tools to be a successful QB in the league.

I would say Howell has the arm and the mobility to be the QB. He just has to get the mental part of the game down and we should have something here. IMO he fits in to what EB wants to do.

Right now there's a chance that he might be the QB going forward, but the team as currently constructed doesn't have the players that fit in what EB had in KC or enhance Howell's obvious strengths, (He's no MaHomes) assuming that's his model. Beyond the offensive line that everyone is focused on they still need a game-breaking WR, an all-purpose TE, and an additional speedy running back to compliment Robinson.

 

[Stymietee]

agreed. But would you agree that he has the physical tools to be a successful QB in the league.

Define "successful" Right now every starting QB in the league can be seen as successful because they made it.

 

[chillerdab]

I think your percentages are off, and that there is a category between “qbs who fit the system” and “journeymen.”

I would argue the fourth category that you are missing is “qbs who could thrive if they were in a system that played to their strengths / had better coaching”

I think Howell fits in that slot right now.

He doesnt look like a journeyman to me, like Heinicke was, or Wentz was, or Mayfield is, or Zach Wilson probably is.

He isnt a generational talent either.

And it sure doesnt look like EB is putting him in a system that will allow him to be successful, operating behind the sieve.

 

[Stymietee]

I think your percentages are off, and that there is a category between “qbs who fit the system” and “journeymen.”

I would argue the fourth category that you are missing is “qbs who could thrive if they were in a system that played to their strengths / had better coaching”

I think Howell fits in that slot right now.

He doesnt look like a journeyman to me, like Heinicke was, or Wentz was, or Mayfield is, or Zach Wilson probably is.

He isnt a generational talent either.

And it sure doesnt look like EB is putting him in a system that will allow him to be successful, operating behind the sieve.

I accept your perspective and the percentages could be off, I won't contest that, but to your second point, the Purdy reference covers that and Howell is not on a team anywhere close to one that's built to his strengths. In fact, he was drafted into this pretty average team and expected to fit into it. Historically, Howell would be well suited to play on a team that featured the Hogs of old with a bashing/gnashing run game, both a blocking TE, one who is a passing threat and at least one Hall-of-fame type receiver on it.

No one said that he was a journeyman, in fact given those three types, I'd say right now he looks like someone who fits on the other end of that third-tier spectrum. (good enough to start in the NFL) So we agree that he probably isn't going to be a journeyman.

For systems to work, they have to have the types of players that operate at a high level within that system. Eric Bieniemy had nothing to do with the players drafted or signed here... that was all on Rivera. I can almost guarantee that given a good GM and the HC duties, most of the current players will be elsewhere going forward.

Now, just between you and me, I believe that every one of those players who complained about being worked too hard won't be on an EB-driven squad.

 

[deanpet21]

Right now there's a chance that he might be the QB going forward, but the team as currently constructed doesn't have the players that fit in what EB had in KC or enhance Howell's obvious strengths, (He's no MaHomes) assuming that's his model. Beyond the offensive line that everyone is focused on they still need a game-breaking WR, an all-purpose TE, and an additional speedy running back to compliment Robinson.

I think we are fine at WR and RB's. We need a TE and olineman. He has some nice weapons right now to work with.

 

[deanpet21]

Define "successful" Right now every starting QB in the league can be seen as successful because they made it.

stat wise maybe top 15.

 

[Stymietee]

I think we are fine at WR and RB's. We need a TE and olineman. He has some nice weapons right now to work with.

Fine at WR?? How do you come to that conclusion? Terry at his best is WR2, and JD is also a WR2 type. I think that Samuel is OK in the slot and it didn't hurt them to sign JC back in case Samuel goes down or next year they want to part with him. The ONLY high-level RB on this team is Robinson and he's more the pound type, meaning that on balance they need that speedy, slashing type of guy.

 

[deanpet21]

Fine at WR?? How do you come to that conclusion? Terry at his best is WR2, and JD is also a WR2 type. I think that Samuel is OK in the slot and it didn't hurt them to sign JC back in case Samuel goes down or next year they want to part with him. The ONLY high-level RB on this team is Robinson and he's more the pound type, meaning that on balance they need that speedy, slashing type of guy.

I think there is enough talent at the position for Howell.

 

[Stymietee]

stat wise maybe top 15.

Kirk Cousins is a top 15 QB and the teams that he's been on don't produce the desired results. (Playoff runs and titles) Within the team concept, your QB has to be one who fits on a team that is a force within itself or one of those generational talents that the organization builds around. Most of the league is either searching for that generational talent or has no clue about building a team and getting that high-level triggerman to QB it. "Successful" in the NFL or any sport means consistent deep playoff appearances and titles, all of the rest are either personal achievements and/or those who provide some level of competition for the ultimate winners in the league. (Mostly a sellable product though, if we're getting right down to it)

 

[Stymietee]

I think there is enough talent at the position for Howell.

Let's say that you're right and Howell becomes that top 15 type of QB (32 starters in the league so pretty average correct?) He would be working on a pretty average team using your "stat" metric and you're insisting that an average team will somehow overachieve their average status. In what world does this happen consistently? Average teams give average results and may on occasion overachieve. Is that what you really want? Not me!

Honestly, I am beginning to be convinced that this fanbase has been beaten down so much and for so long that "competitive" appears to be a wowing achievement!

 

[skinsdad62]

Kirk Cousins is a top 15 QB and the teams that he's been on don't produce the desired results. (Playoff runs and titles) Within the team concept, your QB has to be one who fits on a team that is a force within itself or one of those generational talents that the organization builds around. Most of the league is either searching for that generational talent or has no clue about building a team and getting that high-level triggerman to QB it. "Successful" in the NFL or any sport means consistent deep playoff appearances and titles, all of the rest are either personal achievements and/or those who provide some level of competition for the ultimate winners in the league. (Mostly a sellable product though, if we're getting right down to it)

right now after a small sample size i see slinging sam as a mobile KC with a better arm . this evaluation is subject to going up or down . what we need to see is if he can process fast enough , can he make clutch plays , and can he make adjustments to what opposing DC's do to him when they study film on him

 

[Stymietee]

right now after a small sample size i see slinging sam as a mobile KC with a better arm . this evaluation is subject to going up or down . what we need to see is if he can process fast enough , can he make clutch plays , and can he make adjustments to what opposing DC's do to him when they study film on him

Yeah, that's a good personal assessment, but for the Howell experiment to work this team has to be restructured beyond bolstering their offensive line.

 

[chillerdab]

Sty, saying that TM is at best a number two wr is not correct. He’s clearly a number one. He produces like a number one wr with a revolving carousel of qbs and an ever-degrading offensive line.

 

[deanpet21]

Let's say that you're right and Howell becomes that top 15 type of QB (32 starters in the league so pretty average correct?) He would be working on a pretty average team using your "stat" metric and you're insisting that an average team will somehow overachieve their average status. In what world does this happen consistently? Average teams give average results and may on occasion overachieve. Is that what you really want? Not me!

Honestly, I am beginning to be convinced that this fanbase has been beaten down so much and for so long that "competitive" appears to be a wowing achievement!

No but you have to play the hand you were dealt. The big question this year was how Howell would do as QB1. Sure, he has made mistakes, but I think he is playing above expectations right now.

 

[Stymietee]

Sty, saying that TM is at best a number two wr is not correct. He’s clearly a number one. He produces like a number one wr with a revolving carousel of qbs and an ever-degrading offensive line.

I will give you this... he's a number 1 on this team but that's about it.