Biggest holes for all AFC teams- ESPN Insider

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Posted 4 days ago - Biggest holes for all 32 NFL teams

We're six days away from the official start of NFL free agency, and we're four days away from the start of the "legal tampering period." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Indianapolis for the NFL combine last week, and fans are excited to see where their favorite teams go in the draft in April.

What is the biggest need for each of the 32 NFL franchises? Football Outsiders looks here at the biggest hole on each team's roster as of the beginning of March.

Pieces might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Sports Info Solutions' charting metrics referenced below are available via subscription at FootballOutsiders.com.


AFC East


Buffalo Bills: Front seven

Buffalo finished 31st in run defense DVOA last season. They finished 28th in adjusted sack rate, and, per Sports Info Solutions charting, 31st in pressure rate. The defensive line is watching stalwart Kyle Williams become a free agent, and the Bills have received almost no return so far from their first-round investment in Shaq Lawson. Besides Jerry Hughes, this unit is completely barren.

At linebacker, scrap-heap find Lorenzo Alexander was second on the team in hurries, at 22.5. He's turning 35. Preston Brown is a free agent with average-at-best tape. If I put the rest of Buffalo's linebackers in a list with Madden franchise-mode, AI-created draft prospects, only true fans would know the difference.

Then, of course, there's the fact that Buffalo actually has a few weaknesses. They seem hell-bent on getting rid of Tyrod Taylor, Eric Wood's sudden (yet delayed for salary-cap purposes) retirement leaves them with a hole on the interior line, and their wide receivers are still bad. Things could be going better in Buffalo.

Miami Dolphins: Guard and off-ball linebacker

With the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Miami's big issue shifts to the line protecting him, as per usual. After moving Laremy Tunsil to left tackle, Miami could provide only a heaping helping of replacement-level guys who have been kicking around for a while at guard. Jermon Bushrod was probably the best of them, and he wasn't much. Panthers guard Andrew Norwell is the best of the lot in free agency, but the Dolphins don't figure to have much money to spend, as they are one of two teams already over the cap.

Bafflingly committed to Kiko Alonso, the Dolphins were shredded by tight ends last season, allowing a 17.2 percent DVOA to the position that ranked 28th in the league. All Alonso did of note last year was look lost in coverage and ring Joe Flacco's bell on "Thursday Night Football." Lawrence Timmons and Koa Misi are also fairly replaceable at this stage of their careers. The Dolphins will be hoping that second-round 2017 pick Raekwon McMillan can rehab from a torn ACL to fix these problems.

New England Patriots: Front seven

With the expected returns of Derek Rivers (ACL tear) and Dont'a Hightower (torn pectoral), the Patriots have some upside but also some instability up front. Players such as Elandon Roberts and Kyle Van Noy have been inconsistent, and after dealing away Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, lack of talent was a major reason the Patriots cratered to 31st in defensive DVOA.

The Patriots don't have the means to completely fix this in one offseason because the problem isn't depth -- it's a lack of top-line talent. Elite front-seven talent just doesn't hit free agency often. DeMarcus Lawrence and Ezekiel Ansah have been franchised. The best New England could hope for in these areas are older players on the James Harrison path (Julius Peppers?) or a nice, solid player with some limitations, such as Trent Murphy or Avery Williamson.

The decision to move on from Alan Branch and Martellus Bennett gives them a little more wiggle room under the salary cap. We'll see how they use it.

New York Jets: Quarterback

I figured out why the Jets want to give Kirk Cousins an offer he can't refuse: They don't have a good option at quarterback. Josh McCown is a free agent and can't make it through a full season as a starter anyway. Bryce Petty has proved to be fungible, and Christian Hackenberg ... well, the less said about him, the better.


The Jets enter the offseason with a full war chest of cap space and the sixth overall draft pick in a class that has as many as four franchise-capable quarterbacks, depending on whom you believe in. Even if the answer is not Cousins -- maybe Sam Bradford and a first-round pick battling it out -- the Jets must address the quarterback position in order for the notion of them in the playoffs to become less laughable.

-- Rivers McCown

 

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AFC North


Baltimore Ravens: Wide receiver

The Ravens were 26th in passing offense DVOA, at minus-4.8 percent, and while the offense improved late in the year as Joe Flacco recovered from knee and back injuries, the lack of quality targets hindered the team all season. The team's leading wideout in DYAR (47th overall) was Mike Wallace, who is a free agent. Breshad Perriman is looking like a bust, and Jeremy Maclin might need to redo his contract to stick around.

It remains to be seen whether the Perriman fiasco scares the Ravens off from selecting a wide receiver in the first round. Regardless, the more probable move is one that has worked out in the past with the likes of Steve Smith Sr. and Anquan Boldin -- snagging cap cuts and offering a Baltimore baptism. Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb leap to mind as strong possibilities for this role, with the likes of Mohamed Sanu a dark horse. The draft doesn't offer many top-flight receivers, but there are plenty of midround options the Ravens could target, including LSU's D.J. Chark and Indiana's Simmie Cobbs Jr.

Cincinnati Bengals: Offensive line

Not much mystery here. While the numbers suggest a line more mediocre than putrid (24th in adjusted line yards, 20th in adjusted sack rate), there's little doubt that the lack of consistent play up front has hamstrung the offense for two years running. Cedric Ogbuehi has been mostly a bust. Jake Fisher's future is in doubt given the irregular heartbeat that ended his season. Only Clint Boling can be counted on as a quality starter headed into 2018.

Certainly, the team will address the line in the draft, and more than once, even if the Bengals don't go lineman with their top choice (No. 12). Coach Marvin Lewis indicated that his return was in part predicated on a new willingness to pursue free agents, though splashing out for the likes of Andrew Norwell remains highly unlikely. Baltimore center Ryan Jensen is a possibility, though other, less expensive AFC Northers such as James Hurst and Chris Hubbard would be more Bengals-esque additions. Fans hope the most important addition is new offensive line coach Frank Pollack, in from Dallas to replace longtime coach Paul Alexander.

Cleveland Browns: Quarterback

As ever. DeShone Kizer was who we thought he was -- an athletic, big-armed specimen with the accuracy of an Imperial Stormtrooper trying to blast an above-the-title member of the Rebel Alliance. The newly hired non-nerds in the Browns' front office will go back to the well to find a starter and perhaps a different backup, too, given their antipathy toward just about everything Sashi Brown & Co. did, personnel-wise (they sure love all those draft picks and cap space, though!).

Whoever winds up as Browns signal-caller, be it a free agent or top draftee (you know the names; guessing who the team will draft/sign at this point is just that -- guessing), will have a sturdy line and a decent group of playmakers to work with, one that surely will be improved in the draft and free agency. The Browns could well add, as a hypothetical, Saquon Barkley, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Eifert, Terrelle Pryor Sr., Derrius Guice and Christian Kirk and still be in a position to draft a quarterback with the first pick and sign a bridge free-agent veteran, all while addressing the defense as well. The team can't help but improve, but it still all starts with the choice for the next quarterback(s).

Pittsburgh Steelers: Safety

Ryan Shazier's injury was not only scary but also crippling to the Pittsburgh defense. Before he went out against Cincinnati in Week 13, Pittsburgh sported the fourth-best defense in the league (13.7 percent DVOA). Without the unit's best player, the Steelers fell to ninth (6.4 percent DVOA), then surrendered 45 points at home to Blake Bortles in the playoffs.

But with Vince Williams, T.J. Watt and enigmatic but toolsy Bud Dupree around, Pittsburgh still has quality linebackers to work with. At safety, however, the outlook is more problematic. Mike Mitchell is a likely cap casualty, while Sean Davis was inconsistent in Year 2.

Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid have worrying injury histories, but they are intriguing options for a rebirth with new scenery. The Steelers also will attack the position in the draft, most likely on Day 2. Terrell Edmunds, Tremaine's less heralded brother, had a strong career at Virginia Tech and could be in play, as could a local product, Jordan Whitehead of Pitt.

-- Robert Weintraub

 

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AFC South

Houston Texans: Offensive line

This has been mentioned already, but the Texans are in a rather odd place this offseason. One year ago, they made the divisional round of the playoffs despite essentially being quarterbacked by a lamppost in shoulder pads. They found a franchise quarterback in the draft, forgot they had done so until the second half of Week 1 and promptly finished 4-12 after said quarterback blew out his knee in October. Two of the three best players in their defensive front seven lost almost the entirety of the season to injury, the only 16-game starter in their secondary is a free agent, and they are on their third defensive coordinator in three seasons. A year ago, they looked like they were only a quarterback away. Now the Texans are secure at that position (provided Deshaun Watson's recovery goes OK), but they're putting out fires all over the roster.

The most devastating of those blazes is the one that has annihilated the offensive line. Since the end of the 2015 season, the Texans have lost Duane Brown, Ben Jones, Brandon Brooks and Derek Newton to trades, free agency or injury. Only Brown ever made a Pro Bowl in Houston, but all four were solid players, and with them in place, the Texans' line was once considered the strength of the team. Last year's line was the team's clear and obvious weakness, and with three of last year's starters headed for free agency, every spot except center is likely to be occupied by a different player next season.

There are two major obstacles to a rebuild: the lack of viable free agents, leading to fierce competition for the few who come available, and the team's lack of draft capital stemming from last offseason's quarterback shuffling. Cleveland owns both of Houston's top two draft picks, putting top tackle prospects such as Mike McGlinchey and Brian O'Neill well out of the Texans' reach. The Texans might be able to trade into the second round if a prospect they like is available, but given the breadth of the problem, they might be better off putting as many picks as possible on the roster with a few veteran additions and waiting to see how things shake out.

Indianapolis Colts: Pass defense

The Colts' offense has a few pieces in place, but the defense is full of holes. The run defense was solid enough last year, ranking 10th in DVOA, and the switch back to a 4-3 base should suit interior linemen Al Woods and Johnathan Hankins just fine. What they need now are upgrades to last season's 32nd-ranked DVOA pass defense. Unfortunately, that means literally the entire pass defense: pass rush, cover linebackers and defensive backs.

It helps that the staff knows what it wants to achieve. New defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus already has discussed in some detail his intention to return the Colts to a Tampa 2 base, meaning primarily zone coverages, simplified gap responsibilities and an emphasis on speed over size. Outside linebackers John Simon and Jabaal Sheard will transition to defensive end, while returning safety Malik Hooker should excel as a ball-hawking deep safety tasked with keeping routes in front of him and breaking on the ball.

Everything else is a question mark. The only cornerback to start 10 games for the Colts last season, Rashaan Melvin, is a free agent. Previous top corner Vontae Davis was cut in acrimonious circumstances in November and has since joined the Bills. Early offseason rumors had Clayton Geathers moving to weak-side linebacker, but general manager Chris Ballard has said that Geathers is staying at safety. The team desperately needs cover linebackers and cornerbacks, might need another safety depending who works out next to Hooker and probably needs at least one true 4-3 defensive end added to the rotation with Sheard and Simon. It is not quite the mess of last offseason, when the team switched out almost the entire starting lineup, but the front office has a lot of work to do this year to bring the defense up to the necessary standard.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Quarterback

Just over a week ago, Blake Bortles Joe Flacco'ed his way into a contract extension for the Jaguars after a season in which he was just mediocre enough for the team to make the AFC Championship Game despite him. Big contracts on defense have the Jaguars up close and personal with the salary cap, and re-signing free-agent-to-be Allen Robinson is an expensive offseason priority. This probably factored into the extension: While $54 million over three years is a lot of money for a mediocre starter, the extension lowers Bortles' $19.5 million cap hit in 2018 from his fully guaranteed fifth-year option. The Jaguars have a deep and talented defense, a solid offensive line, talented backs and an apparent knack for finding and developing young receivers. Quarterback is their one glaring weakness: With a better passer, they are likely preseason favorites to win the AFC.

With so much money tied up elsewhere, the options available to actually get a better quarterback are limited. Most of the obvious upgrades in free agency will be too expensive for Jacksonville to squeeze under the cap. Backup Chad Henne is a free agent, so the team is likely to take a quarterback at some point in the 2018 draft. Whether they do so on Day 1, as we suggested in our Bold Moves column or wait until later in the draft will provide some clue to the level of confidence the team has in Bortles for next season and beyond.

Tennessee Titans: Guard, edge rusher

The Titans are quite an awkward team to assess -- they're a marginal playoff squad with a basic level of competence at most positions but very few actual strengths. The offensive line, particularly at tackle, is the strongest unit on the roster, while the loss of Eric Decker and Harry Douglas probably leaves receiver the weakest. Even there, the Titans believe they will have two starting-caliber receivers with some development from second-year professional Corey Davis alongside veteran Rishard Matthews. As always, tight end Delanie Walker will make a big contribution as a pass target, and Taywan Taylor at least offers a credible deep threat. Mike Mularkey was roundly criticized for much of his two seasons as the Titans head coach, but his one definite contribution was to help fashion a solid roster with few glaring problem areas.

That said, age and free agency could open two such holes quite quickly. Right guard Josh Kline is an unrestricted free agent. He's the sort of solid but unspectacular guard who would not typically be expensive to retain but might be a target for other teams competing in a very limited market. Left guard Quinton Spain is a restricted free agent, giving the Titans at least the option to match any contract offer made to him. The loss of either player would open an obvious hole on the roster, but neither is so important that the Titans could not find an adequate replacement.

On defense, the outside pass rush came last year from veterans Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo. Morgan is 29, and Orakpo will be 32 on opening day. Both players are still performing well -- they combined for 30 starts and 14.5 sacks -- but backup Erik Walden is a 33-year-old free agent, and the team has basically nobody else at that position. Regardless of what happens with Walden, the Titans are widely expected to add at least one edge rusher in April's draft.

-- Andrew Potter

 

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AFC West

Denver Broncos: Quarterback

Over the past two seasons, Trevor Siemian has proved to be fantastic value as a seventh-round pick. Very few late-round quarterbacks are able to prove themselves as decent quarterbacks, much less earn starting jobs for two seasons. However, Siemian is more fit to be a backup or spot starter than the player on whom Denver places its future.

The quarterback on whom Denver did try to place its future, Paxton Lynch, appears to have been a poor investment. Lynch has started just five games in two years since he was a first-round selection in 2016. Heading into both seasons, Lynch was given every opportunity to supplant Siemian as the starting quarterback but hardly came close either time. Lynch is a long shot to develop into what Denver hoped he could be when it drafted him.

Brock Osweiler and Chad Kelly round out Denver's quarterback depth chart from last season. Osweiler started four games for the Broncos in 2017, but he signed only a one-year deal and seems unlikely to be brought back. Kelly was the last pick in the 2017 NFL draft, and he likely will not remain on the active roster if Denver brings in a quarterback via free agency.

Kansas City Chiefs: Inside linebacker

Time is undefeated. After 12 fantastic seasons, Derrick Johnson finally hit a wall in 2017. Johnson lost the speed and suddenness that made his strength so imposing. Tracking sideline to sideline became difficult for Johnson, and he lost his steam as a downhill force in the run game. When Johnson became an unrestricted free agent this offseason, Kansas City made the easy decision to move on.

Assuming none of the team's free agents are re-signed, Reggie Ragland would start alongside Terrance Smith or Ukeme Eligwe in 2018. A late addition last offseason, Ragland proved to be a decent fit in Kansas City, but he is not an impact player. Ragland provides a baseline level of play in the run game while falling flat as a three-down player. Worse yet, Smith and Eligwe are unproven players who could not find snaps in an already bad linebacker group in 2017.

Kevin Pierre-Louis is the team's only pending free-agent linebacker. Pierre-Louis began his career as a strong-side linebacker with Seattle, playing more of an edge-setting role than a true off-ball linebacker position. In his transition to Kansas City's defense, Pierre-Louis did not show signs of being anything more than a functional depth player. Kansas City might benefit from keeping Pierre-Louis, but he is not the answer at inside linebacker.

Los Angeles Chargers: Off-ball linebacker

The Chargers rostered one definitively good off-ball linebacker last season: Denzel Perryman. Unfortunately, an ankle injury kept Perryman off the field for the first half of the season, leaving the team to lean on a slew of Band-Aids to stay afloat until his return. Jatavis Brown and Hayes Pullard ended the season with the most linebacker snaps on the team, yet neither was on the field even half the time, and neither proved to be particularly valuable when on the field.

By season's end, the Chargers even began opting for dime personnel over nickel, subbing out one of their linebackers for a sixth defensive back. Outside of Perryman, the unit could not be trusted in any capacity.

Since 2014, Perryman is the only off-ball linebacker the team has selected within the first three rounds of the draft. The Chargers have not signed a major free agent at the position in that time either. If the Chargers want to fix their mess, they need to throw legitimate resources at the position.

Oakland Raiders: Cornerback

Poor pass defense has plagued the Raiders the past couple of years. The Raiders ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA in 2016, only to get progressively worse by finishing 30th in 2017. Relying on gambles in free agency has not worked out quite the way they had envisioned. Likewise, drafting a first-round cornerback in 2017 (Gareon Conley) did not immediately fix anything. Oakland's cornerback unit needs to be stripped down and rebuilt.

David Amerson already has been cut, and he signed with the Chiefs. If Oakland is sensible, it will allow TJ Carrie to walk as an unrestricted free agent. Finally, Sean Smith, who flopped as a major free-agency signing in 2016, has an option in his contract that allows Oakland to cut him without penalty. That option ought to be exercised.

With Paul Guenther now in the fold as defensive coordinator, it would be wise to stock the cupboard with cornerbacks via free agency and the draft. Guenther came over from Cincinnati, where cornerback talent and depth were never an issue. Investing in cornerback also will allow Khalil Mack to wreak more havoc and help Oakland re-establish a defensive identity.

-- Derrik Klassen