AFC West Roundup

[randymon]

First, let me be clear: I loathe FF and don't waste my time on it. I feel it is ruining football fandom and immediately withdraw from football conversations with "fans" who are actually FF fans. When I discern they want to talk only fantasy implications I bail. I also don't do redzone. When the Broncos aren't playing my next go-to is always another AFC West team. If the Broncos top rivals are on at the same time the Broncos are I often record them and watch them later.

If you're not buying I sat there and watched a Raiders game start to finish that's fine with me. I'd be willing to say with extreme confidence I watched as many Raiders snaps as you did. Add in the Chiefs and my snap count on AFC West rivals probably obliterates yours.

Next round's on me.

Well.....that was just a friendly rib but on behalf of the millions of FF fans, I would sincerely like to apologize for our loathsome and apparently disgusting behavior and evil partaking of such a hideous indulgence. Please forgive me.

 

[randymon]

Well considering for the articles and podcasts that I do I have to watch every team the Broncos play for analysis yeah I'm guessing I've actually watched the Raiders more than you. Most weeks I'm watching the All-22 film to break down opponents such as tendencies, weaknesses, strengths, and so on. Such as for Derek Carr the best way to make him uncomfortable is to play the deep ball and the screen game. His worst ability is in the 1-20 range beyond the LOS. In fact he is one of the 5 worst QB's when asked to throw in such a range. So force him to have to beat you in that area and you got a shot of having him make some mistakes. His mechanics are not great which is why he struggles with accuracy in that range. What makes them difficult to defend though is because they have a run game that makes you commit extra guys to the box to help stop it and WR's that can win one-on-one match ups.

Defensively they are weak up the middle big time. This is where you stated earlier addition in FA to help that defense of theirs. Might want to actually go look what they did in FA before commenting. At this time they have lost Nate Allen, Daren Bates, DJ Hayden, Stacy McGee, Perry Riley, Malcolm Smith, Brynden Trawick, and Dan Williams to FA.

The addition they made was Jelani Jenkins.

So if that defense is to improve for the Raiders it will take the 2nd year guys and the rookies this year stepping up to make that happen. If anything FA hurt their team. They lost 2 of the 3 main guys they used in rotation on the inside of the DL, starting LB, and Nate Allen then at the Safety position. None of them were star players by any means but if nothing else depth will be a huge question mark.

Once again I am completely humbled and awed at the same time.

 

[cdumler7]

Once again I am completely humbled and awed at the same time.

I just think it is ridiculous that you think because you live on the West Coast and get all of the Raiders games that means you watch more of them than anybody else in here. It is 2017 with technology that allows any of us to watch every game played each week and watch it in even greater detail than what you see on tv.

Plus just a quick note...just because you watch a game doesn't mean you understand it as much as others. There are others on this board that I am in awe of their understanding of the game. They can get more from watching one game than most can get from an entire season about an individual team.

 

[Clayton]

One of those stats that is very difficult to repeat is that of turnovers. The Chiefs and Raiders finished 1st and 2nd in the NFL in that stat if I remember right. 3 seasons ago for the Chiefs they were 2nd to last in that stat. Just goes to show how much that stat can change from one year to the next for any given team. A great showing of this stat is that only 2 teams that finished in the top-5 from the year before finished in the top-5 the season before that. We go back another season and no team in the league has finished top-5 in turnovers all 3 seasons. In fact none of them finished top-10 all 3 seasons. Carolina and Denver were the only team to finish top-15 all 3 seasons. Some regression in that department for both KC and Oakland should lead to a tougher path to winning in those close games.

FWIW, the most unsustainable part of turnover margins is who recovers fumbles and the Chiefs were 15th in doing that. Some of it was a function of the Chiefs playing some awful QBs last year (Jets come to mind immediately).

Certainly Smith came up short against Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh last year but there were some moments where he thrived at the come back and there were some costly turnovers there. I think its possible that the Chiefs will not create as many turnovers next year but also not be too hurt by it if they actually field a better team than what was on the field during the first half of the season.

People forget that the Chiefs were a mess in a lot of ways and fixing themselves as the season went along. Its hard to make projections when a team is always injured or trying to figure out key positions like CB2 or just stopping any running back from doing whatever it wants. The Chiefs just finished the teams in its division so they won a lot of games but I think talentwise they can't have the same issues they had last year because there is nothing sustainable about having Reid and Alex Smith for comebacks week in and week out. They need to play up to their max potential on paper and I think thats why I'm not super optimistic about next year because inevitably there are going to be major injuries again.

 

[randymon]

I just think it is ridiculous that you think because you live on the West Coast and get all of the Raiders games that means you watch more of them than anybody else in here. It is 2017 with technology that allows any of us to watch every game played each week and watch it in even greater detail than what you see on tv.

Plus just a quick note...just because you watch a game doesn't mean you understand it as much as others. There are others on this board that I am in awe of their understanding of the game. They can get more from watching one game than most can get from an entire season about an individual team.

Jesus ! Get over it ! I just assumed since I was stuck in Raider market that I was left with no choice but to watch Raider games and probably saw more games than most. I wasn't bragging. Figured I'd just seen more and their potential. You and Ikf on your periods again ? Go bake a pie or something and calm done.

 

[cdumler7]

Jesus ! Get over it ! I just assumed since I was stuck in Raider market that I was left with no choice but to watch Raider games and probably saw more games than most. I wasn't bragging. Figured I'd just seen more and their potential. You and Ikf on your periods again ? Go bake a pie or something and calm done.

I'm good man. Just amazed at some of the things you say on here is all. You would think I wouldn't keep being surprised by you but hey glad you keep this relationship fresh.

 

[Mingo]

You two crack me up

 

[randymon]

I'm good man. Just amazed at some of the things you say on here is all. You would think I wouldn't keep being surprised by you but hey glad you keep this relationship fresh.

First, let me be clear: I loathe FF and don't waste my time on it. I feel it is ruining football fandom and immediately withdraw from football conversations with "fans" who are actually FF fans. When I discern they want to talk only fantasy implications I bail. I also don't do redzone. When the Broncos aren't playing my next go-to is always another AFC West team. If the Broncos top rivals are on at the same time the Broncos are I often record them and watch them later.

If you're not buying I sat there and watched a Raiders game start to finish that's fine with me. I'd be willing to say with extreme confidence I watched as many Raiders snaps as you did. Add in the Chiefs and my snap count on AFC West rivals probably obliterates yours.

Next round's on me.

Crap ! I didn't catch it first time. Your leaving board ? Your refusal to engage " any fans of FF " pretty much eliminates everyone here then. Nice knowing ya buddy.

 

[WalkerBoh]

You two crack me up

I'm thinking one of them should just propose already and get it over with

 

[cdumler7]

I'm thinking one of them should just propose already and get it over with

Sorry one of the things on my list of qualities needed is somebody who hates Trevor Siemian so unless Randy changes his mind on that not going to happen. Deal Breaker

 

[iknowftbll]

Crap ! I didn't catch it first time. Your leaving board ? Your refusal to engage " any fans of FF " pretty much eliminates everyone here then. Nice knowing ya buddy.

This board is full of Broncos fans, some of whom also do FF. Huge difference. A lot of the FF fans I'm talking about either don't have a team loyalty at all or in some cases have allowed their loyalty to FF overtake their team loyalty to the point they root for players who are playing against their own team. Those are the people I don't bother talking football with.

 

[WalkerBoh]

This board is full of Broncos fans, some of whom also do FF. Huge difference. A lot of the FF fans I'm talking about either don't have a team loyalty at all or in some cases have allowed their loyalty to FF overtake their team loyalty to the point they root for players who are playing against their own team. Those are the people I don't bother talking football with.

I believe it's possible to do both. If I have a player going up against the Broncos, I have no problem watching that player go for 100 yards and 3 TD while Denver wins 35-21.....

 

[iknowftbll]

I believe it's possible to do both. If I have a player going up against the Broncos, I have no problem watching that player go for 100 yards and 3 TD while Denver wins 35-21.....

Yeah I know some people can pull off the balancing act, it's just not for me.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Yeah I know some people can pull off the balancing act, it's just not for me.

Now if Denver loses such a game, I'm still rather irate. So usually I avoid such situations if at all possible. I'd much rather see my player get blanked in a Denver win than see him score a bunch of points in a Denver loss.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Sorry one of the things on my list of qualities needed is somebody who hates Trevor Siemian so unless Randy changes his mind on that not going to happen. Deal Breaker

No marriage is without challenges.

 

[randymon]

This board is full of Broncos fans, some of whom also do FF. Huge difference. A lot of the FF fans I'm talking about either don't have a team loyalty at all or in some cases have allowed their loyalty to FF overtake their team loyalty to the point they root for players who are playing against their own team. Those are the people I don't bother talking football
Somebody must of never won.

 

[iknowftbll]

Now if Denver loses such a game, I'm still rather irate. So usually I avoid such situations if at all possible. I'd much rather see my player get blanked in a Denver win than see him score a bunch of points in a Denver loss.

Yeah, the few years I actually played I refused to start players who were going up against the Broncos any given week. This was during our really lean years (~2006-2009 or so) and people asked why I'd pass on a sure thing. I just couldn't bring myself to start a player against my team even though I knew he was probably going to have a good game.

 

[iknowftbll]

It's time to start scouring the web to discern what the fans of our AFC West rivals are expecting. Here's a couple fun reads on the Chiefs:

The sky isn’t falling for the Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC in 2017

 

[Mingo]

Thanks @iknowftbll

Reading the articles got me thinking on a few points:

1) It is going to be a nice touch going into the two games with KC - to follow Special Team play in those games. Brock Olivio knows the KC system - inside out - he probably knows the best way to deal with Tyreek (kick away from him). One of the most exciting things to think about is the qualitative improvement of the Bronco's special teams play. I believe specials account for 1/3 of each game.

2) Alex Smith has grudgingly won my respect over the years. He has his limitations as a QB, but he plays with a passion for the game - and has the ability to make plays in the game. In general - there are a lot of older QBs looking to start around the league - Brees, Brady, Rivers, Manning, Roethlisberger Palmer, and Rogers - a trend merging with a passing league trend - merging with rush the passer trends - means more injuries to top QBs - especially the older ones. This would make the extra Broncos QB to be - a person of value.

3) The Chiefs by every scientific measure - suck.

 

[iknowftbll]

The reason I still consider the Chiefs a bigger threat than the Raiders is since Reid took over, for the most part their production on offense and defense alike has ranked in the bottom half of the league, and in some cases bottom third. At the same time they've managed to keep opponents scoring down and averaged respectable scoring production as well. And ultimately they've won a lot of games despite limits on offense or injuries on defense. That stability is something I believe in. At least to the point that it'll carry them into playoff contention again.

Compare that to the Raiders, who may have a far more exciting offense, but will need a lot more out of their defense as we've discussed at length here. Granted, the possibility their defense actually does improve is always there. I question this because of some of the FAs they lost, but who knows? Maybe players will step up. The other possibility is the offense takes it to the next level, but even still without improvement on defense this is a recipe for a 13-3 season and an early playoff exit. A regression toward the mean is just as reasonable to expect as is improvement on the Raiders offense, defense, or both. Despite the hype they're getting, it won't surprise me if they finish 8-8. Even 7-9 wouldn't surprise me. If I recall I picked them to go 9-7 because I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt.

What makes the Chiefs different to me is they are consistently winning despite being marginal offensively and defensively. They've somehow found ways to get it done and I suspect as that AA writer alluded the Chiefs special teams are likely a big part of that.

I can't wait to see how this Broncos team look, especially now that they've been essentially counted out entirely. If they fix their run defense the defense alone will be good enough for 8 wins. I keep saying even marginal improvement on offense couple with a defense that can stop the run again and this team is right back in it. I'm excited to see if we can get more than just marginal improvement from the offense.