Why JAX and MIN are good for football

fknhippie said:

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BigKen said:

IF the Jags and Vikes are in the Super Bowl it will be the worst rated SB in television history. Nobody but Jags and Vikes fans will watch. No one will give a rat shit. The reason the NFL, NBC and the advertisers want the Patriots is because the ratings will be huge with 95% of viewing audience watching to see if the Vikes or Eagles can knock them off.

Defense is still the buzzword for this year’s NFL playoffs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles ranked No. 1, 2 and 3, respectively, for fewest points allowed per drive during the regular season, with the New England Patriots finishing a respectable sixth. But don’t confuse these teams for some of the one-dimensional, defense-only squads we have seen in the past — they can score points, too.

The Patriots led the league in scoring efficiency (2.6 points per drive), the Eagles ranked fifth (2.2), and the Vikings finished eighth (2.0). The Jaguars weren’t offensive dynamos, but they finished above average at 13th (1.8).

And don’t worry too much about Philadelphia’s drop-off in points with quarterback Nick Foles filling in for the injured Carson Wentz: The defense has stepped up, allowing 1.2 points per drive over the past four games, including the playoffs, to give them the second-best mark among playoff teams in that span (behind the Vikings at 0.7).

It’s that stellar defense — and the possibility the Vikings could appear in the championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium, their home field — that has Minnesota with almost as good of a chance as the Patriots to win Super Bowl LII.

Title odds are determined by using the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings, which take into account a team’s actual record and what its record should be based on points scored and allowed — also known as its Pythagorean win percentage — and simulating the playoffs 5,000 times.

Team Seed Chance to win Super Bowl LII Super Bowl LII Odds
New England Patriots AFC No. 1 seed 34% 2-to-1
Minnesota Vikings NFC No. 2 seed 30% 2-to-1
Philadelphia Eagles NFC No. 1 seed 24% 3-to-1
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC No. 3 seed 12% 7-to-1
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)

Winner:Patriots, 66 percent
Pick: Jaguars +9

The Jaguars have shut down the passing game of their opponents all season. Four of their key defensive players — defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson, and cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey — were named to the Pro Bowl after the team limited opposing quarterbacks to a 68.5 passer rating against during the regular season, a mark that was 18 points better than the average defense in 2017.

[Can Bill Belichick and the Patriots survive losing another pair of star coordinators?]

Tom Brady isn’t your run-of-the-mill passer: Against the four defenses that ranked in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent, Brady posted a 78.8 Total Quarterback Rating. If sustained over a full season, that would have been the best mark by any qualifying passer. Put another way, Brady has been the NFL’s best quarterback when facing the best defenses.

[Patriots’ Tom Brady is a freak, and Jaguars’ defense will only make him better]

In addition, the Jaguars dominated offensive formations that utilized “11 personnel”, which means one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers are on the field. According to research by Warren Sharp, Jacksonville allowed a mere 4.9 yards per attempt and 73 passer rating against in these situations. If an offense used a formation with no more than two wideouts, those numbers increased to 9.6 and 99, respectively. The Patriots, meanwhile, ran “11 personnel” just 45 percent of the time, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. When New England ran two-receiver sets with two tight ends (“12 personnel,” 14 percent of the time), it averaged a 146.8 passer rating. In two-receiver sets featuring two running backs (“21 personnel,” 26 percent), it managed a passer rating of 131.2.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Winner: Vikings, 54 percent
Pick: Vikings -3

The battle of the backup quarterbacks, Case Keenum and Nick Foles, will be the focal point, but one of the key matchups will be how left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai, filling in for the injured Jason Peters since Week 7, handles Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen.

[A wing and a prayer: Eagles’ Nick Foles turned to a higher power before returning to Eagles]

Griffen was credited with 13 sacks during the regular season and finished as the 10th-best edge rusher per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. He had a sack against Drew Brees in the divisional playoff game Sunday in addition to deflecting a pass into the arms of teammate Anthony Barr for the Vikings’ second interception. Griffen has at least one sack in each of his three career playoff games.

Vaitai ranks 52 out of 55 qualified tackles after allowing nine sacks, 10 hits and 20 hurries. That could spell disaster for Foles, whose passer rating drops from 106.3 to 34.0 under pressure. An incomplete pass, by comparison, results in a passer rating of 39.6.

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DJ said:

I disagree. It's the last football game (NCAA or NFL) for a while.....so I think more people will be watching it than most expect.....and also because it's 2 different teams than the usual participants.

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averagejoe said:

And just to clarify the point I was originally making has more to do with HOPE for the other 20+ teams' FANBASE without an elite QB.

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Clayton said:

There are usually less than 5 elite defenses every year, too, so its not like thats an easier thing to come across.

Jags also just gave up 42 points. I'm not really sure they have a narrative.

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Trudem said:

Jags also sacrificed yards last for burning times. My concern is their DBs were allowed alot of contact against the Steelers that could have been called and I guarantee it is called against the Pats.

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averagejoe said:

The barbs between the 2 fan bases may be more entertaining than the game itself.

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