Why JAX and MIN are good for football

[averagejoe]

its too quiet in here!
Lets go Jags and Eagles!

As much as I would love to see Brady NOT in the Super Bowl...I cannot get behind the idea of Blake Bortles. Just doesn't seem right

I have nothing against the Eagles and hope they do well.
But I believe that a Jacksonville - Minnesota Super Bowl would be good for football.

Here are some reasons:

1) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "points allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 17 points per game (15.8 and 16.8 respectively).

2) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "yards allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 290 yards per game (275.9 and 286.1 respectively).

3) This season there were a whopping 19 QB that averaged more passing yards per game than Blake Bortles (230.4) and Case Keenum (236.5). One of those 19 QB only started 1 game (Patrick Mahomes - 284.0).

4) There were also 14 QB that scored more TD than Bortles and Keenum. (Both B & K each scored 23 total TD.)

5) Both the Jaguars and Vikings ranked better in rushing offense than in they did in passing offense.

Jaguars were #1 in rushing and #17 in passing.
Vikings were #7 in rushing and #11 in passing.​

What does this all mean and why is this good?

The cliche says "defense wins championships," but more and more teams seem to load up on offensive play-makers each year.

The Vikings and Jaguars have shown that you don't need a Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger to win.

Despite the seeming ineptitude of Blake Bortles, the Jaguars controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #3 in time-of-possession averaging 32:19 per game.

Likewise, even though Keenum was not the first choice (Teddy Bridgewater) or second choice (Sam Bradford) to lead the Vikings, they too controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #2 in time-of-possession averaging 32:26 per game.

Both teams had success. Much of that was success was because of running the ball, controlling the clock, and a stifling defense.

The NFL is a copy-cat league.

For the many teams that don't have an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, I'm sure some GM's and owners are taking note that if they use this off-season to strengthened up the defense and were more effective at running the ball, (as opposed to finding the next stud QB and receiving duo) then their team could make a run at a championship.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Jags, Vikings and Eagles all using the Seahawks formula. ...good run game and strong defense to go gor the gold.

 

[averagejoe]

I also think that the Jags beat the Patriots.
Might be crazy?
Tom Coughlin is the VP of the Jags and has beat the Patriots twice with the Giants.

 

[obxyankeefan]

I also think that the Jags beat the Patriots.
Might be crazy?
Tom Coughlin is the VP of the Jags and has beat the Patriots twice with the Giants.

Tom Coughlin was the coach of the Jaguars when they lost to the Patriots in the 1995 AFCCG.


I am rooting for the Jaguars to win it all, because of the number of relatives I have in the Jacksonville area plus their starting middle linebacker in their first season I backed up in high school.

Keith Goganious

 

[TREFF]

I think you logic is flawless (as usual).
But,
The pats still beat the Jags, dang near 500yds and 5 scores from Big Ben says, what stifling D?

 

[Trudem]

I have nothing against the Eagles and hope they do well.
But I believe that a Jacksonville - Minnesota Super Bowl would be good for football.

Here are some reasons:

1) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "points allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 17 points per game (15.8 and 16.8 respectively).

2) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "yards allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 290 yards per game (275.9 and 286.1 respectively).

3) This season there were a whopping 19 QB that averaged more passing yards per game than Blake Bortles (230.4) and Case Keenum (236.5). One of those 19 QB only started 1 game (Patrick Mahomes - 284.0).

4) There were also 14 QB that scored more TD than Bortles and Keenum. (Both B & K each scored 23 total TD.)

5) Both the Jaguars and Vikings ranked better in rushing offense than in they did in passing offense.

Jaguars were #1 in rushing and #17 in passing.
Vikings were #7 in rushing and #11 in passing.​

What does this all mean and why is this good?

The cliche says "defense wins championships," but more and more teams seem to load up on offensive play-makers each year.

The Vikings and Jaguars have shown that you don't need a Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger to win.

Despite the seeming ineptitude of Blake Bortles, the Jaguars controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #3 in time-of-possession averaging 32:19 per game.

Likewise, even though Keenum was not the first choice (Teddy Bridgewater) or second choice (Sam Bradford) to lead the Vikings, they too controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #2 in time-of-possession averaging 32:26 per game.

Both teams had success. Much of that was success was because of running the ball, controlling the clock, and a stifling defense.

The NFL is a copy-cat league.

For the many teams that don't have an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, I'm sure some GM's and owners are taking note that if they use this off-season to strengthened up the defense and were more effective at running the ball, (as opposed to finding the next stud QB and receiving duo) then their team could make a run at a championship.

I get that but I’ll never root for the Vikings. I would rather Brady win again...I think I just threw up in my mouth

 

[Trudem]

Tom Coughlin was the coach of the Jaguars when they lost to the Patriots in the 1995 AFCCG.


I am rooting for the Jaguars to win it all, because of the number of relatives I have in the Jacksonville area plus their starting middle linebacker in their first season I backed up in high school.

Keith Goganious

Let me know if you come visit. We can get a drink!

 

[obxyankeefan]

Let me know if you come visit. We can get a drink!

It's been years. I believe the last time I was in the area was 1999, Steelers at Jaguars MNF game a couple of days after christmas. The past few times I have seen those relatives has been going to WDW and them driving down to see us for a day or two. I will let you know if I am ever in the area again.

 

[Trudem]

It's been years. I believe the last time I was in the area was 1999, Steelers at Jaguars MNF game a couple of days after christmas. The past few times I have seen those relatives has been going to WDW and them driving down to see us for a day or two. I will let you know if I am ever in the area again.

My wife and I are letting our Disney passes go. We have switched to Universal. I will convince her to switch back when Star Wars Land opens though but we hit Orlando about once every six weeks or so

 

[Clayton]

We just had Carolina and Denver in a super bowl recently. Defense on defense matchups don't do much for me.

 

[obxyankeefan]

My wife and I are letting our Disney passes go. We have switched to Universal. I will convince her to switch back when Star Wars Land opens though but we hit Orlando about once every six weeks or so

My parents make the drive from Virginia about six times a year to go to Disney. 2014 was the last time my wife and me went. It has gotten way to expensive, and all the people running around ignoring the rules really got to us the last time we went. The wife is saying that we will go back with all the grandkids for my 50th birthday in a few years.

 

[Trudem]

My parents make the drive from Virginia about six times a year to go to Disney. 2014 was the last time my wife and me went. It has gotten way to expensive, and all the people running around ignoring the rules really got to us the last time we went. The wife is saying that we will go back with all the grandkids for my 50th birthday in a few years.

It is a madhouse. I have two boys, 5 and 2, that I push around in a stroller and people do not respect personal space. It’s gotten to the point that I just let the stroller wreck their ankles when it’s their fault or rudeness that caused the contact. It gives me some space for. Little while at least

 

[SteelersPride]

ESPN radio had some analytics the other day, it was 5 am and i was driving to work, half asleep.........

But basically it was talking about how this system ranked all time defenses.........how the buccaneers, Ravens, seahawks, denver all won with great D.

They then said using their system that this years jags team is the #1 d of all time , again in this system...........and that based on this system they wont be shocked if they win the big dance

take it for what its worth, personally since the steelers are out, i want jax or minny i been loving minny since like week 4 but i would love to see that shit hole franchise of jax win

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Jags, Vikings and Eagles all using the Seahawks formula. ...good run game and strong defense to go gor the gold.

It was a proven formula probably 100+ years before the Seahawks used it...

 

[tlance]

I have nothing against the Eagles and hope they do well.
But I believe that a Jacksonville - Minnesota Super Bowl would be good for football.

Here are some reasons:

1) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "points allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 17 points per game (15.8 and 16.8 respectively).

2) The Vikings and Jags ranked 1 and 2 respectively in "yards allowed." The only 2 teams that allowed less than 290 yards per game (275.9 and 286.1 respectively).

3) This season there were a whopping 19 QB that averaged more passing yards per game than Blake Bortles (230.4) and Case Keenum (236.5). One of those 19 QB only started 1 game (Patrick Mahomes - 284.0).

4) There were also 14 QB that scored more TD than Bortles and Keenum. (Both B & K each scored 23 total TD.)

5) Both the Jaguars and Vikings ranked better in rushing offense than in they did in passing offense.

Jaguars were #1 in rushing and #17 in passing.
Vikings were #7 in rushing and #11 in passing.​

What does this all mean and why is this good?

The cliche says "defense wins championships," but more and more teams seem to load up on offensive play-makers each year.

The Vikings and Jaguars have shown that you don't need a Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger to win.

Despite the seeming ineptitude of Blake Bortles, the Jaguars controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #3 in time-of-possession averaging 32:19 per game.

Likewise, even though Keenum was not the first choice (Teddy Bridgewater) or second choice (Sam Bradford) to lead the Vikings, they too controlled the CLOCK on offense and ranked #2 in time-of-possession averaging 32:26 per game.

Both teams had success. Much of that was success was because of running the ball, controlling the clock, and a stifling defense.

The NFL is a copy-cat league.

For the many teams that don't have an Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, I'm sure some GM's and owners are taking note that if they use this off-season to strengthened up the defense and were more effective at running the ball, (as opposed to finding the next stud QB and receiving duo) then their team could make a run at a championship.

I don't know if it is good or not, but I bet ratings would be higher if the Pats made it.

One thing I do know for sure is that QB salaries are out of control in a bad way. The elite QBs should be paid, but the problem is that the market way overinflates the price tag for the league average QB. JAX is in their current position in large part because Bortles is on a rookie deal. Even though he sucks, he will command a lot of money if he wins a super bowl.

 

[DJ]

People were talking on here about the Jags being contracted......my how fast a team can turn around their fortunes.

 

[DJ]

I don't know if it is good or not, but I bet ratings would be higher if the Pats made it.

One thing I do know for sure is that QB salaries are out of control in a bad way. The elite QBs should be paid, but the problem is that the market way overinflates the price tag for the league average QB. JAX is in their current position in large part because Bortles is on a rookie deal. Even though he sucks, he will command a lot of money if he wins a super bowl.

Like Flacco. Even if Flacco may be better but still just average,

 

[HaroldSeattle]

It was a proven formula probably 100+ years before the Seahawks used it...

Pretty sure most know I'm not claiming the Seahawks invented the forumla, simply brought it back in fashion.

 

[BigKen]

IF the Jags and Vikes are in the Super Bowl it will be the worst rated SB in television history. Nobody but Jags and Vikes fans will watch. No one will give a rat shit. The reason the NFL, NBC and the advertisers want the Patriots is because the ratings will be huge with 95% of viewing audience watching to see if the Vikes or Eagles can knock them off.

Defense is still the buzzword for this year’s NFL playoffs.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles ranked No. 1, 2 and 3, respectively, for fewest points allowed per drive during the regular season, with the New England Patriots finishing a respectable sixth. But don’t confuse these teams for some of the one-dimensional, defense-only squads we have seen in the past — they can score points, too.

The Patriots led the league in scoring efficiency (2.6 points per drive), the Eagles ranked fifth (2.2), and the Vikings finished eighth (2.0). The Jaguars weren’t offensive dynamos, but they finished above average at 13th (1.8).

And don’t worry too much about Philadelphia’s drop-off in points with quarterback Nick Foles filling in for the injured Carson Wentz: The defense has stepped up, allowing 1.2 points per drive over the past four games, including the playoffs, to give them the second-best mark among playoff teams in that span (behind the Vikings at 0.7).

It’s that stellar defense — and the possibility the Vikings could appear in the championship game at U.S. Bank Stadium, their home field — that has Minnesota with almost as good of a chance as the Patriots to win Super Bowl LII.

Title odds are determined by using the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings, which take into account a team’s actual record and what its record should be based on points scored and allowed — also known as its Pythagorean win percentage — and simulating the playoffs 5,000 times.

Team Seed Chance to win Super Bowl LII Super Bowl LII Odds
New England Patriots AFC No. 1 seed 34% 2-to-1
Minnesota Vikings NFC No. 2 seed 30% 2-to-1
Philadelphia Eagles NFC No. 1 seed 24% 3-to-1
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC No. 3 seed 12% 7-to-1
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9)

Winner:Patriots, 66 percent
Pick: Jaguars +9

The Jaguars have shut down the passing game of their opponents all season. Four of their key defensive players — defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Malik Jackson, and cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey — were named to the Pro Bowl after the team limited opposing quarterbacks to a 68.5 passer rating against during the regular season, a mark that was 18 points better than the average defense in 2017.

[Can Bill Belichick and the Patriots survive losing another pair of star coordinators?]

Tom Brady isn’t your run-of-the-mill passer: Against the four defenses that ranked in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent, Brady posted a 78.8 Total Quarterback Rating. If sustained over a full season, that would have been the best mark by any qualifying passer. Put another way, Brady has been the NFL’s best quarterback when facing the best defenses.

[Patriots’ Tom Brady is a freak, and Jaguars’ defense will only make him better]

In addition, the Jaguars dominated offensive formations that utilized “11 personnel”, which means one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers are on the field. According to research by Warren Sharp, Jacksonville allowed a mere 4.9 yards per attempt and 73 passer rating against in these situations. If an offense used a formation with no more than two wideouts, those numbers increased to 9.6 and 99, respectively. The Patriots, meanwhile, ran “11 personnel” just 45 percent of the time, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL. When New England ran two-receiver sets with two tight ends (“12 personnel,” 14 percent of the time), it averaged a 146.8 passer rating. In two-receiver sets featuring two running backs (“21 personnel,” 26 percent), it managed a passer rating of 131.2.

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Winner: Vikings, 54 percent
Pick: Vikings -3

The battle of the backup quarterbacks, Case Keenum and Nick Foles, will be the focal point, but one of the key matchups will be how left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai, filling in for the injured Jason Peters since Week 7, handles Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen.

[A wing and a prayer: Eagles’ Nick Foles turned to a higher power before returning to Eagles]

Griffen was credited with 13 sacks during the regular season and finished as the 10th-best edge rusher per the game charters at Pro Football Focus. He had a sack against Drew Brees in the divisional playoff game Sunday in addition to deflecting a pass into the arms of teammate Anthony Barr for the Vikings’ second interception. Griffen has at least one sack in each of his three career playoff games.

Vaitai ranks 52 out of 55 qualified tackles after allowing nine sacks, 10 hits and 20 hurries. That could spell disaster for Foles, whose passer rating drops from 106.3 to 34.0 under pressure. An incomplete pass, by comparison, results in a passer rating of 39.6.

 

[fknhippie]

I get that but I’ll never root for the Vikings. I would rather Brady win again...I think I just threw up in my mouth