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Niner Outlaw
Stay out of my territory.
Well, here we are, playing the Cowboys again in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Last year's game ended in a nail-biter, so let's hope for a better showing this time.
Overall, Dallas is a better team than they were when we faced them last year. On offense, Dallas is better than last year in the running game--the Dak injury forced the team to focus more on the run and they've smartly stuck with it. Pollard made the PB at RB and the Cowboys like to bring in an extra OLineman to block as a FB. In the passing game, they no longer have Amari Cooper, but Dak can still put up big numbers through the air, as Lamb had 1,300yds at WR and Shultz had 500yds+ at TE . Shultz caught a lot of balls last year against us, so we should expect more of the same this year--lots of runs, play action, and deeper shots taken. While Dak led the league in INTs, a lot of those were fluky plays where the WR bobbled the ball (ala the Purdy/Jennings INT against Washington).
--what is really going to matter is whether the Niners D can get pass pressure like they did last season. Dallas's OLine is a bit shuffled with Jason Peters likely not playing, meaning they will put the rookie back out at LT (where he's played surprisingly well) and put Connor McGovern in at LG. We will need a big game from Armstead inside, as he's been missing from the stat sheet for weeks.
Dallas's defense is GOOD. They are 2nd in DVOA (behind the Niners).
--The D is much better against the pass than they are against the run. That plays into the Niners' offensive strength.
--They force fumbles like no other team in the league, so ball security will be paramount.
--They like to play man coverage and bring pressure, so it'll be interesting to see how Kyle goes after them.
--Parsons is a beast of a pass rusher, so the Niners may try to slow him and the pass rush down by running at him and throwing screens and quicker passes. ---It's interesting to note that they are dead last in defensive DVOA in defending #2 receivers, so the D is good at slowing down #1 WRs, but not nearly as good at defending the secondary receiver.
The Niners are also a better team than last year's.
CMC makes the entire offense more dynamic and Purdy's emergence has improved the offense over and above what Jimmy was giving us. And it's hard to forget that Jimmy wasn't exactly known for big playoff performances. BA, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC provide plenty of offensive firepower for Purdy and Kyle to use. The Niners run-heavy offense plays right into where Dallas's defense is weakest (its not weak, just relatively so), so we have ot establish the run game.
The Niners are the healthiest we've been all year. We're much healthier than we were in last year's game. Last year, Jimmy was playing through a thumb injury and injured his shoulder in the Dallas game to the point it needed offseason surgery (his INT was thrown after the shoulder injury). Purdy comes in not only playing better than Jimmy but he's healthy and more mobile. McGlinchey was out last year and TW was playing through an ankle sprain. Both are healthy this time around.
We have some improvements on defense and some losses. I think the interior of our DLine is weaker than last year, as I think we've missed Arden Key quite a bit. However, Bosa missed the entire 2nd half of the Dallas game last year. And we were without Warner in the 4th quarter. This year we're much healthier. The Niner secondary is better than it was last year. Sure, we're down Moseley, but Ward is an improvement over Moseley and the other Ward has played really well at NCB, haven taken over the spot from K.Williams from last year.
The worries for the Niners imo is at CB2 and safety. Demo has been picked on this season, so expect Dallas to try and isolate him in coverage and throw up some 50/50 balls his way and challenge him. Demo is coming off of his best game this year, so his confidence is high. The other weakness I see is at safety, where Hufanga has a history of blowing coverages and peeking in the backfield.
Another worry is turnovers. Purdy has been careful with the ball, but we seem to be due for a freak fumble and Dallas's defense forces a lot of fumbles.
It's worth noting that the Niners will get 2 more days of rest than Dallas b/c the Cowboys played on Monday night. It's also notable that this is the FOURTH straight road game for Dallas. All that extra time didn't help the Packers last year, so Here's hoping the Cowboys are a little fatigued by the travel and short week.
Vegas has the Niners favored by 3.5 to 4 points. Considering that the game is in SF, that's practically a pick em on a neutral field.
Well, what do we think?
Overall, Dallas is a better team than they were when we faced them last year. On offense, Dallas is better than last year in the running game--the Dak injury forced the team to focus more on the run and they've smartly stuck with it. Pollard made the PB at RB and the Cowboys like to bring in an extra OLineman to block as a FB. In the passing game, they no longer have Amari Cooper, but Dak can still put up big numbers through the air, as Lamb had 1,300yds at WR and Shultz had 500yds+ at TE . Shultz caught a lot of balls last year against us, so we should expect more of the same this year--lots of runs, play action, and deeper shots taken. While Dak led the league in INTs, a lot of those were fluky plays where the WR bobbled the ball (ala the Purdy/Jennings INT against Washington).
--what is really going to matter is whether the Niners D can get pass pressure like they did last season. Dallas's OLine is a bit shuffled with Jason Peters likely not playing, meaning they will put the rookie back out at LT (where he's played surprisingly well) and put Connor McGovern in at LG. We will need a big game from Armstead inside, as he's been missing from the stat sheet for weeks.
Dallas's defense is GOOD. They are 2nd in DVOA (behind the Niners).
--The D is much better against the pass than they are against the run. That plays into the Niners' offensive strength.
--They force fumbles like no other team in the league, so ball security will be paramount.
--They like to play man coverage and bring pressure, so it'll be interesting to see how Kyle goes after them.
--Parsons is a beast of a pass rusher, so the Niners may try to slow him and the pass rush down by running at him and throwing screens and quicker passes. ---It's interesting to note that they are dead last in defensive DVOA in defending #2 receivers, so the D is good at slowing down #1 WRs, but not nearly as good at defending the secondary receiver.
The Niners are also a better team than last year's.
CMC makes the entire offense more dynamic and Purdy's emergence has improved the offense over and above what Jimmy was giving us. And it's hard to forget that Jimmy wasn't exactly known for big playoff performances. BA, Deebo, Kittle, and CMC provide plenty of offensive firepower for Purdy and Kyle to use. The Niners run-heavy offense plays right into where Dallas's defense is weakest (its not weak, just relatively so), so we have ot establish the run game.
The Niners are the healthiest we've been all year. We're much healthier than we were in last year's game. Last year, Jimmy was playing through a thumb injury and injured his shoulder in the Dallas game to the point it needed offseason surgery (his INT was thrown after the shoulder injury). Purdy comes in not only playing better than Jimmy but he's healthy and more mobile. McGlinchey was out last year and TW was playing through an ankle sprain. Both are healthy this time around.
We have some improvements on defense and some losses. I think the interior of our DLine is weaker than last year, as I think we've missed Arden Key quite a bit. However, Bosa missed the entire 2nd half of the Dallas game last year. And we were without Warner in the 4th quarter. This year we're much healthier. The Niner secondary is better than it was last year. Sure, we're down Moseley, but Ward is an improvement over Moseley and the other Ward has played really well at NCB, haven taken over the spot from K.Williams from last year.
The worries for the Niners imo is at CB2 and safety. Demo has been picked on this season, so expect Dallas to try and isolate him in coverage and throw up some 50/50 balls his way and challenge him. Demo is coming off of his best game this year, so his confidence is high. The other weakness I see is at safety, where Hufanga has a history of blowing coverages and peeking in the backfield.
Another worry is turnovers. Purdy has been careful with the ball, but we seem to be due for a freak fumble and Dallas's defense forces a lot of fumbles.
It's worth noting that the Niners will get 2 more days of rest than Dallas b/c the Cowboys played on Monday night. It's also notable that this is the FOURTH straight road game for Dallas. All that extra time didn't help the Packers last year, so Here's hoping the Cowboys are a little fatigued by the travel and short week.
Vegas has the Niners favored by 3.5 to 4 points. Considering that the game is in SF, that's practically a pick em on a neutral field.
Well, what do we think?