Game #18 Jacksonville Jaguars vs NE Patriots 1-21-2018

[BigKen]

Looking at the Jags/Steelers final stats, you can easily see how the Steelers scored 42 points. Big Bem was 37-59 469 yds and 5 TDs. What doesn't compute is Bortles 14-26 214 yds 1 TD and Fourbette 25 carries for 102 yards and 3 TDs.

So I decided to watch the game again on NFL network at 1:00 AM (couldn't sleep) to see what the hell actually happened.

4 Plays were critical in this game. Roethesberger's fumble that was returned for a TD and the one INT Ben had. Both were games changers. If Ben hadn't fumbled the ball, the Jags would not have that extra 7 points and would be home next week. The other two were unnecessary 4th down tries that gave the Jags incredible short field position.

QB fumbles are always a problem because they give a wicked swing in momentum and they aren't 100% the QB's fault. The OL has to step up when they know that the DL is better than average. The other problem is that there are always 4 or 5 other guys in the area and someone always seems to kick the ball on the ground.

The biggest difference between the Steelers and the Patriots, is that Belichick learned his lesson when he went for a first down on 4th and 2 against the Colts. He doesn't make the same mistake twice. Brady lost fumbles in the past but over the past 3 years, he's learned not hold the ball away from his body. If he's going to lose it, he has a 50/50 chance of falling on it.

Before the Pats/Titans, I said to a friend, that the Titan had a miraculous Mariota pass that was blocked back to Mariota for a TD. That was the game winner. I said that won't happen with the Patriots. It didn't and without the gifts, there was no chance for the Titan playing a real game of football.

Now on to this week's game........ The Patriots will focus on Fournette and put most their effort in shutting him down. That will force Bortles to throw the ball. He threw away about 10 passes yesterday because of the pressure. I think the Patriots get to him early and sack him very early. That will make him even more unsteady. 14-26 for 214 is NOT going to translate into a victory in Foxboro. Bortles also got away with some pretty bad passes that should have been knocked down or even intercepted. The Patriots secondary will make him pay for those. The biggest thing that the patriots MUST do early is close down the edges. Bortles likes to run out of the pocket and will get 9-10 yards along the edge to the sideline. Keep him in the pocket and make him throw crap passes.

Offensively, the Patriots just have to do what they've been doing the past 5 or 6games. Dion Lewis is small, quick and powerful for a RB. Big guys are easy to tackle but Lewis is hard to find and has a knack for making DL's work their butts off. The Jags have problems covering RBs comingout of the backfield on apss plays. They like to drop their LBs back about 10 yards and react. Do that against the Patriots and you'll be giving up first downs all day.

The Buffalo Bills held the Jags to 10 points two weeks ago. Belichick and Patricia will study every single defensive play and figure out exactly how they did what Pittsburgh couldn't do. They will employ the same game plan and tweak it. The Patriots are not Santa Claus, and they will NOT give the Jags the same gifts the Steelers did.

Game starts off with the Jags expending a trainload of adrenalin and energy. They'll be gasping at the end. Patriots 38 Jaguars 16.

 

[NEhomer]

Hope you're right Ken.

If the Pats have one of their off days like they sometimes do, yesterday's Jags team will take 'em out. I'm sure they're going to take this one very seriously.

 

[nefansince75]

Looking at the Jags/Steelers final stats, you can easily see how the Steelers scored 42 points. Big Bem was 37-59 469 yds and 5 TDs. What doesn't compute is Bortles 14-26 214 yds 1 TD and Fourbette 25 carries for 102 yards and 3 TDs.

So I decided to watch the game again on NFL network at 1:00 AM (couldn't sleep) to see what the hell actually happened.

4 Plays were critical in this game. Roethesberger's fumble that was returned for a TD and the one INT Ben had. Both were games changers. If Ben hadn't fumbled the ball, the Jags would not have that extra 7 points and would be home next week. The other two were unnecessary 4th down tries that gave the Jags incredible short field position.

QB fumbles are always a problem because they give a wicked swing in momentum and they aren't 100% the QB's fault. The OL has to step up when they know that the DL is better than average. The other problem is that there are always 4 or 5 other guys in the area and someone always seems to kick the ball on the ground.

The biggest difference between the Steelers and the Patriots, is that Belichick learned his lesson when he went for a first down on 4th and 2 against the Colts. He doesn't make the same mistake twice. Brady lost fumbles in the past but over the past 3 years, he's learned not hold the ball away from his body. If he's going to lose it, he has a 50/50 chance of falling on it.

Before the Pats/Titans, I said to a friend, that the Titan had a miraculous Mariota pass that was blocked back to Mariota for a TD. That was the game winner. I said that won't happen with the Patriots. It didn't and without the gifts, there was no chance for the Titan playing a real game of football.

Now on to this week's game........ The Patriots will focus on Fournette and put most their effort in shutting him down. That will force Bortles to throw the ball. He threw away about 10 passes yesterday because of the pressure. I think the Patriots get to him early and sack him very early. That will make him even more unsteady. 14-26 for 214 is NOT going to translate into a victory in Foxboro. Bortles also got away with some pretty bad passes that should have been knocked down or even intercepted. The Patriots secondary will make him pay for those. The biggest thing that the patriots MUST do early is close down the edges. Bortles likes to run out of the pocket and will get 9-10 yards along the edge to the sideline. Keep him in the pocket and make him throw crap passes.

Offensively, the Patriots just have to do what they've been doing the past 5 or 6games. Dion Lewis is small, quick and powerful for a RB. Big guys are easy to tackle but Lewis is hard to find and has a knack for making DL's work their butts off. The Jags have problems covering RBs comingout of the backfield on apss plays. They like to drop their LBs back about 10 yards and react. Do that against the Patriots and you'll be giving up first downs all day.

The Buffalo Bills held the Jags to 10 points two weeks ago. Belichick and Patricia will study every single defensive play and figure out exactly how they did what Pittsburgh couldn't do. They will employ the same game plan and tweak it. The Patriots are not Santa Claus, and they will NOT give the Jags the same gifts the Steelers did.

Game starts off with the Jags expending a trainload of adrenalin and energy. They'll be gasping at the end. Patriots 38 Jaguars 16.

Good analysis Ken, but flawed. I'll go out and a limb and say Pittsburg actually won the game. I say that because both team were trying to lose and Pittsburg did it better.

A lot of Pittsburg's success was on desparation plays that shouldn't have happened, or better said wouldn't have been tried had the game been close. The touchdown before the half is one example and the late TD on a 4th to Brown is another.

It was just a wierd game where neither team seemed to want to win.

 

[PatsFan2003]

It's going to be a very physical game and the Patriots need to be ready for it. No-huddle and quick outlet passes to wear those big boys out.

 

[redseat]

It's going to be a very physical game and the Patriots need to be ready for it. No-huddle and quick outlet passes to wear those big boys out.

Though this is the team that can prevent those quick outlet passes and guard anyone the Patriots have on offense

 

[PatsFan2003]

Though this is the team that can prevent those quick outlet passes and guard anyone the Patriots have on offense

Yes but supposedly, Jimmy G torched the Jags doing just that.

 

[redseat]

Yes but supposedly, Jimmy G torched the Jags doing just that.

well yeah he's the GOAT so naturally he would torch them

 

[BigKen]

Jacksonville is very much like the Titans. They have problems covering the RBs coming out for passes. The Jags like to drop their LBs back about 10 yards from the line and let them try to pick up the TE and float to the edge to keep anything from going outside. Lewis and White can take full advantage and quick turn to the middle and pick up sizeable chunks of yardage. The other problem is that they play the safeties about 19 yards off the line and they cheat on the WR going down the sideline. This is where white becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back. Once he gets a couple of yards, he's always good for 12-15 more.

Attitude is extremely important. Jacksonville may not believe that they were lucky as hell to beat the Steelers and that the Steelers made a bunch of serious mistakes. If they start to think that they outplayed the Steelers and they can do the same against the Patriots, they will actually be playing tricks on themselves. Marrone and his staff have to convince them that were lucky and that the Pats won't give away this game. Fournette was not the same after he hurt his ankle. I don't know how much Lanocaine they shot into that ankle, but I'd be willing to bet he needed more today. You know that they're going to dope up that ankle for Sunday and hope that he plays near 100%. Patriots have done an excellent job shutting down the big backs from the Bye week until last week. If they stop Fournette, Bortles is not the QB who can throw the rock for 350 yards and 4-5 TDs.

 

[redseat]

Fournette should be fine in a week... but yes when he came back he didn't look the same at all

 

[CreepCreep2014]

31 pts the Jags got cause of Pitt fuck ups...INT, FRTD, 4th and 1 twice and the onside kick failure that lead to 3 pts. Big Ken broke it down dam well too. IDK what Pitt was doing that game, but man, they seemed to fuck up at all the wrong times.

Same game plan on defense as it was with Tenn. Stop the run, keep Bortles in the pocket and make him pass it with pressure in his face. My issue is that Butler has now become a liability for this defense and Gillmore has stepped the fuck up. IDK, Butler seems to have lost a step and is having trouble staying with these quick WR that he had no issues with before. That is what Jax WR are, small and quick. I really hope Branch is back for this one, we can use that beef inside and I expect Harrison to get more time on the edge, he was awesome in that game. He did his job. I think the defense will do it's job. Seems the communication issues are over.

Plain an simple for the offense. WR need to step up big time. These CB are no joke. I think Gronk will have a big game. Vance McDonlad was huge for Pitt on Sunday. Cooks needs to hold onto the ball. I think we see a ton of screens, and short passes to RB out the backfield. Should be big games for Rex, White, Dlew. I'm thinking Britt might be active cause of his size with these Jags CB. I expect both Allen and Hollister to be on the field more to help the OT in this game. It's not gonna be an easy game for the offense, but as long as we hold onto the football and no mistakes, we should do OK.

Usually NE has the edge is coaching, but not this time. Marone with the help of Coughlin will not shit their pants like most coaches do vs NE in big games. Jags have a big time defense and NE is supposed to have a big time offense.....The outcome of this game wont shock me unless there is a blowout by either side.

 

[SDGuy73]

Usually NE has the edge is coaching, but not this time. Marone with the help of Coughlin will not shit their pants like most coaches do vs NE in big games. Jags have a big time defense and NE is supposed to have a big time offense.....The outcome of this game wont shock me unless there is a blowout by either side.

 

[YankeeRebel]

Living real close to Jville I will say this, and have been saying this all year, that defense can be really stout at times. I think the Pats can run on them, but I feel it needs to be more North South and less East West. TB12 can pretty much read any defense he will put the receivers in the best possible position. I expect a lot of Dink and Dunk passes as the Jags pass rush is quick to get to the QB. The have smaller faster LBs that can be run over at times.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

well yeah he's the GOAT so naturally he would torch them

Post of the year.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

Patriots to decide Wednesday if they need Malcolm Mitchell as insurance

 

[YankeeRebel]

Patriots to decide Wednesday if they need Malcolm Mitchell as insurance

Well that is interesting it would make some sense to me, but if he has not been 100% at practice or has been missing substantial time the last few weeks I wonder about the timing. What the status on him at practice.

 

[Shoeshine Boy]

He missed Wed last week but practiced on Thurs

 

[YankeeRebel]

He missed Wed last week but practiced on Thurs

Any word about this week.

@BigKen Updates?

 

[BigKen]

I was watching a program last night about the Jaguars defense and why it has been so successful. They play a Cover 3 on approx. 75% of their defensive snaps. That is, they put both safeties and usually Jalen Ramsey back about 15 yeards off the line of scrimmage. A.J. Bouyea lines up with the#1 WR man to man. Ramsey picks up the #2 about 7 yards off the line. Smith and Mack the two fast LB's pick up the #3 and TE coming off the line.
It works very well especially against teams that don't have Antonio Browns or AJ Greens.

Most teams don't have a Tom Brady at QB either. This will be why the Patriots will activate Malcolm Mitchell for this Sunday's AFCCG. Mitchell will switch off with Phillip Dorsett and they will be the decoys that must be covered by a CB. Basically, the Patriots will spread the defense with 5 WRs. The Jags will have to use 6 DBs and put a safety in the middle of the field to cover if any of the WRs break loose. The middle will be open and this is where the Patriots take advantage with Gronk. They'll line him up next to the RT, take two steps and cut diagonally left, then head straight up field, usually 2-3 steps ahead of the CB, LB or safety covering him.
Patriots will also take advantage of the Cover 3 by haviung Dion Lewis or James White or Rex Burkhead lined up next to TB12 in the backfield. They hold for two seconds to make sure that there is no blitzer, release to line of scrimmage and cut diagonally in the 10-12 open space behind the defensive line.

The Bills kept their game with the Jags low scoring by sealing the edge and not allowing Bortles out of the pocket and forcing him to throw the ball before he could line up his recievers. That, and good tackling on Fournette before he can break out beyond the line of scrimmage. Problem for the Bills is that other than McCoy, they didn't have much else on offense.

You can bet that BB and MP will copy the Bills' strategy on defense and play into the Jags strength on offense, thus taking advantage of bad match-ups. The Patriots have multiple skill players and a QB that can adjust on the fly. Jags are in for a track meet.

 

[YankeeRebel]

I was watching a program last night about the Jaguars defense and why it has been so successful. They play a Cover 3 on approx. 75% of their defensive snaps. That is, they put both safeties and usually Jalen Ramsey back about 15 yeards off the line of scrimmage. A.J. Bouyea lines up with the#1 WR man to man. Ramsey picks up the #2 about 7 yards off the line. Smith and Mack the two fast LB's pick up the #3 and TE coming off the line.
It works very well especially against teams that don't have Antonio Browns or AJ Greens.

Most teams don't have a Tom Brady at QB either. This will be why the Patriots will activate Malcolm Mitchell for this Sunday's AFCCG. Mitchell will switch off with Phillip Dorsett and they will be the decoys that must be covered by a CB. Basically, the Patriots will spread the defense with 5 WRs. The Jags will have to use 6 DBs and put a safety in the middle of the field to cover if any of the WRs break loose. The middle will be open and this is where the Patriots take advantage with Gronk. They'll line him up next to the RT, take two steps and cut diagonally left, then head straight up field, usually 2-3 steps ahead of the CB, LB or safety covering him.
Patriots will also take advantage of the Cover 3 by haviung Dion Lewis or James White or Rex Burkhead lined up next to TB12 in the backfield. They hold for two seconds to make sure that there is no blitzer, release to line of scrimmage and cut diagonally in the 10-12 open space behind the defensive line.

The Bills kept their game with the Jags low scoring by sealing the edge and not allowing Bortles out of the pocket and forcing him to throw the ball before he could line up his recievers. That, and good tackling on Fournette before he can break out beyond the line of scrimmage. Problem for the Bills is that other than McCoy, they didn't have much else on offense.

You can bet that BB and MP will copy the Bills' strategy on defense and play into the Jags strength on offense, thus taking advantage of bad match-ups. The Patriots have multiple skill players and a QB that can adjust on the fly. Jags are in for a track meet.

I noticed TB12 typically releases at 2.5 seconds after the snap are you thinking the aforementioned schemes will work with that release point or will he be forced or game planned to release sooner?

Also do you see the no huddle / hurry up offense playing a role here with mutliple formations and no time for them to adjust?

Passing against that D can be dangerous, we can run the ball on them IMO.

 

[BigKen]

The jags are not a blitzing team. I believe I saw where they only blitzed about 12% of the time. The Jags try to focr thr pocket in towards the middle to take away the QB's ability to 'step up'. This is Brady's technique and if the Jags can keep him from stepping up, he'll tend to throw a bit off his back foot. What I think we'll see is a quick RB release to the right or left and a very quick release screen. This is a huge problem for the jags. They send four DL, have 2 LBs about 8-10 yards off the line ready to cover, two corners covering off the line and three deep. The quick screen generally gives up 5-7 yards before the LBs can react and what the Jags will have to do is get into a 4-3-2-2 and the third LB is 33 year old Paul Polouzney (? SP) who was burned by Gronk in the preseason and two years ago in athe regular season. The jags do NOT match up well with patriots.