So the PAC 12 has no shot at the Playoff.

[TrustMeIamRight]

I'm legitimately not. Remember, these aren't just my opinions.

And yes, I have been right this entire time. As of Saturday, with 3 games remaining - 1 on the road against an 8-3 michigan and one on a neutral site against unbeaten Wisconsin - they had a 30% chance of making the playoff. That 30% included them needing to win all of their games, and no other fuckery happening. You do realize none of the teams had over a 70% chance on that segment right? (that was Bama's odds). Get over yourself, you're wrong. They weren't talking about the odds to make the playoff in they won out.

Here's another link:

Full odds to win 2017-18 College Football Playoff

Why would the Las Vegas Superbook have OSU as the 3rd most likely team to win the CFP if the odds of them making it were so low?

You're just wrong. It's not a big deal. I suppose if there's complete and total chaos and somehow OSU is left out, you'll get some sort of "victory"?

So you think you have a 30% chance to beat a Michigan team who hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all year and Wisconsin whose big win is Northwestern? THAT is what you think you have a 30% chance of accomplishing?

 

[Across The Field]

So you think you have a 30% chance to beat a Michigan team who hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record all year and Wisconsin whose big win is Northwestern? THAT is what you think you have a 30% chance of accomplishing?

They were also saying that before the michigan-Wisconsin game, and if michigan had upset Wisconsin that would've dramatically hurt our chances. 30% would've been for Wisconsin to beat michigan and then Minnesota, us to beat michigan and then Wisconsin, and for some other crazy shit to not happen. Yes, that's a fair percentage to put on that. Again, never once during the segment did they say "if they win out". Do you honestly think Alabama would have a 70% chance to make the playoff if they won out? Is that what makes sense to you?

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

They were also saying that before the michigan-Wisconsin game, and if michigan had upset Wisconsin that would've dramatically hurt our chances. 30% would've been for Wisconsin to beat michigan and then Minnesota, us to beat michigan and then Wisconsin, and for some other crazy shit to not happen. Yes, that's a fair percentage to put on that. Again, never once during the segment did they say "if they win out". Do you honestly think Alabama would have a 70% chance to make the playoff if they won out? Is that what makes sense to you?

OSU HAS to win out. Period. Alabama does not. Alabama could lose to Auburn and still have a chance to get in the CFP. Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

Ohio State CANNOT, you HAVE TO WIN OUT to even have a chance. OSU could win out and STILL not get in, contrary to your belief (see bad losses to OU and Iowa why that is)

So AGAIN — in your mind, you think OSU wins and they are in. So in essence, you think OSU has a 30% shot to beat UM and Wisconsin?

 

[Across The Field]

OSU HAS to win out. Period. Alabama does not. Alabama could lose to Auburn and still have a chance to get in the CFP. Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

Ohio State CANNOT, you HAVE TO WIN OUT to even have a chance. OSU could win out and STILL not get in, contrary to your belief (see bad losses to OU and Iowa why that is)

So AGAIN — in your mind, you think OSU wins and they are in. So in essence, you think OSU has a 30% shot to beat UM and Wisconsin?

OSU does have to win out, which isn't a guarantee. Hence them at 30% to make it.

If Alabama doesn't have to win out, why would they only have a 70% chance then? Are you saying it's 70% because they still have to beat Auburn and Georgia? Because that's the explanation for these percentages that I've been using and that you've been rejecting this entire time.

I'm tired of having to explain this to you. I already have explained the 30% thing to you ad nauseum and it had to do with more than just OSU winning out. I don't know what else to tell you because you're just ignoring what I post, so we can call this quits until you start paying attention and using your brain.

 

[uncfan103]

OSU HAS to win out. Period. Alabama does not. Alabama could lose to Auburn and still have a chance to get in the CFP. Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

Ohio State CANNOT, you HAVE TO WIN OUT to even have a chance. OSU could win out and STILL not get in, contrary to your belief (see bad losses to OU and Iowa why that is)

So AGAIN — in your mind, you think OSU wins and they are in. So in essence, you think OSU has a 30% shot to beat UM and Wisconsin?

2017 College Football Predictions

They just need chalk. The reason they have a 30% chance of getting in the playoffs is because of all the chalk that needs to happen. Play around on the link.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

OSU does have to win out, which isn't a guarantee. Hence them at 30% to make it.

If Alabama doesn't have to win out, why would they only have a 70% chance then? Are you saying it's 70% because they still have to beat Auburn and Georgia? Because that's the explanation for these percentages that I've been using and that you've been rejecting this entire time.

I'm tired of having to explain this to you. I already have explained the 30% thing to you ad nauseum and it had to do with more than just OSU winning out. I don't know what else to tell you because you're just ignoring what I post, so we can call this quits until you start paying attention and using your brain.

My degrees are in accounting and finance — I’ve taken classes on statistics and mathematical probabilities. You don’t have to explain anything to me — I’m trying to explain to you that OSU needs help to get in. The 30% chance for OSU to get into the CFP includes them beating Wisconsin and Michigan AND other pieces falling their way (as in Bama winning out, Miami winning out and OU winning out) — THAT is the probability for that happen. If Bama loses, OSU May not get in, if OU loses, OSU May not get in, if Miami loses, OSU May not get in. They take the sum total of it all and THAT is why OSU is only at 30% to get in.

The 70% takes into account the given (Bama winning out, of course they are in), but also takes into account if they were to lose to either Auburn or Georgia.

Basically I’m telling you — the 30% they have you listed as doesn’t mean, you only have a 30% chance to beat UM (you are favored by 11) and Wisconsin (LV had it as OSU -7) — the 30% is taking the probability of ALL scenarios from the other teams.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

2017 College Football Predictions

They just need chalk. The reason they have a 30% chance of getting in the playoffs is because of all the chalk that needs to happen. Play around on the link.

Not sure what just needing chalk means? But thank you for the link. @Across The Field click win out for OSU and tell me what the odds are Ohio State is in the CFP? In YOUR logic, it should say close to 100%

 

[Across The Field]

My degrees are in accounting and finance — I’ve taken classes on statistics and mathematical probabilities. You don’t have to explain anything to me — I’m trying to explain to you that OSU needs help to get in. The 30% chance for OSU to get into the CFP includes them beating Wisconsin and Michigan AND other pieces falling their way (as in Bama winning out, Miami winning out and OU winning out) — THAT is the probability for that happen. If Bama loses, OSU May not get in, if OU loses, OSU May not get in, if Miami loses, OSU May not get in. They take the sum total of it all and THAT is why OSU is only at 30% to get in.

The 70% takes into account the given (Bama winning out, of course they are in), but also takes into account if they were to lose to either Auburn or Georgia.

Basically I’m telling you — the 30% they have you listed as doesn’t mean, you only have a 30% chance to beat UM (you are favored by 11) and Wisconsin (LV had it as OSU -7) — the 30% is taking the probability of ALL scenarios from the other teams.

If Clemson beats Miami, OSU will get in over Miami. You're not going to ever convince me that a 1-loss team that has struggled mightily with so many shitty teams and doesn't have a conference title and has 1 (maybe 2) ranked wins is going to get over a 2-loss conference champ with two top 10 wins and 3 (maybe 4) ranked wins overall. If it happens, I'll eat crow.

Again, you're going with upsets to support your logic. That doesn't prove your point. You're the one pointing out these oddities that need to happen for OSU to get kept out if they win out.

Yes, the 30% takes into account the probability of everything. It also took into account the possibility of michigan upsetting Wisconsin, which could have very well kept OSU out as Wisconsin would've probably dropped 6-7 spots. However, you were wrong in saying it was only 30% AFTER we win out. I tried explaining that to you multiple times. It's 30% IF we win out, which is far from a given. I'm confident we will, but going to Ann Arbor for THE rivalry game against a team out for revenge and then turning around 1 week later and facing a likely unbeaten Wisconsin team who has looked very solid lately is far from an easy task.

 

[Across The Field]

Not sure what just needing chalk means? But thank you for the link. @Across The Field click win out for OSU and tell me what the odds are Ohio State is in the CFP? In YOUR logic, it should say close to 100%

You call yourself a sports fan and don't know what chalk means?

According to this website, the ONLY way OSU is not projected to be in the playoff is if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG and Clemson and Oklahoma win out. They are a few percentage points behind Alabama in this scenario.

Otherwise, they are projected to be in the top 3-4 with every single other scenario. I would say those odds are very, very high.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

You call yourself a sports fan and don't know what chalk means?

According to this website, the ONLY way OSU is not projected to be in the playoff is if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG and Clemson and Oklahoma win out. They are a few percentage points behind Alabama in this scenario.

Otherwise, they are projected to be in the top 3-4 with every single other scenario. I would say those odds are very, very high.

I know what chalk is, but never heard it used as he did.

And show me the scenario where OSU is 100% in if they win the next two

 

[gpm1976]

OSU HAS to win out. Period. Alabama does not. Alabama could lose to Auburn and still have a chance to get in the CFP. Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

Ohio State CANNOT, you HAVE TO WIN OUT to even have a chance. OSU could win out and STILL not get in, contrary to your belief (see bad losses to OU and Iowa why that is)

So AGAIN — in your mind, you think OSU wins and they are in. So in essence, you think OSU has a 30% shot to beat UM and Wisconsin?

Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

I"m not sure how this could be the case. Bama no longer has a win over a ranked team. If they lose to UGA, they would be .500 against ranked teams and would also not have won their conf. We simply can't have two teams from the same conf in the playoffs. The PAC is likely out and Notre Dame in. That means the winner of the BIG should get that last spot.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Alabama could beat Auburn and lose to Georgia and still get in.

I"m not sure how this could be the case. Bama no longer has a win over a ranked team. If they lose to UGA, they would be .500 against ranked teams and would also not have won their conf. We simply can't have two teams from the same conf in the playoffs. The PAC is likely out and Notre Dame in. That means the winner of the BIG should get that last spot.

If the B1G didn’t get hammered in their only two OOC games against CFP quality teams, I’d agree. Unfortunately, OSU was beaten convincingly by OU and MSU was hammered by ND and both were home games for the B1G.

The only guarantee the B1G has is if Wisconsin wins. There is no guaranteed spot otherwise, and I have a feeling the loss to Iowa is going to kill OSU and there is no excuse for it.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

You call yourself a sports fan and don't know what chalk means?

According to this website, the ONLY way OSU is not projected to be in the playoff is if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC CCG and Clemson and Oklahoma win out. They are a few percentage points behind Alabama in this scenario.

Otherwise, they are projected to be in the top 3-4 with every single other scenario. I would say those odds are very, very high.

Click Bama losing to Auburn and Georgia winning the SEC and if Auburn wins out it is a tossup as well. It’d go back to who people would rather play a 2nd time Auburn Bama or OSU OU

 

[Across The Field]

I know what chalk is, but never heard it used as he did.

And show me the scenario where OSU is 100% in if they win the next two

LOL OSU is projected to be ranked 3-4 in all scenarios but one. They're all projections at this point, dimwit. If they have the 3rd or 4th highest projection to make the playoffs, that would mean they're in the playoffs in those projections. I do not know how to make this simpler for you. If you're resorting to arguing semantics, then go ahead, but please realize your original assertion of OSU needing all of this help to get in even if they win out has been blown out of the water, as the projections have proven you wrong.

 

[Across The Field]

Click Bama losing to Auburn and Georgia winning the SEC and if Auburn wins out it is a tossup as well. It’d go back to who people would rather play a 2nd time Auburn Bama or OSU OU

So basically you've gone from saying that OSU needs a ton of help to get in even if they win out to now hinging your entire argument on Alabama being upset. That's the only way OSU MIGHT not make it in, and even then the percentages of Alabama getting in over them are small.

 

[TexasExes98]

That's one of the most retarded things I've ever read in my entire life.

Why? tOSU had no business in the playoff last year. They didn't win their division nor their conference and were an ass hair away from 5 losses. There is a reason they were stomped and embarrassed by Clemson and that's b/c they had no business being there in the 1st place, but you guys sell hotel rooms and tickets and are good for the local economy. This year, you guys already have 2 losses and were curbstomped by an average, unranked Iowa team. Now in 2015, tOSU should have been in the playoff without a doubt. I firmly believe ya'll would have gone back to back if it wasn't for that fluke loss to MSU.

 

[TexasExes98]

I think 8 teams makes the most sense. In nearly every year, the best team would be ranked in the top 8. It would add 1 extra game for 2 teams. They'd be good games too. At least on paper.

If it ended as it is today (I know it couldn't, but for the sake of this point):
Alabama vs Ohio State
Miami vs Georgia
Oklahoma vs Auburn
Clemson vs Wisconsin

3 SEC teams? NO fucking way......TCU is just as worthy of a 2 loss team as AU.

 

[gpm1976]

If the B1G didn’t get hammered in their only two OOC games against CFP quality teams, I’d agree. Unfortunately, OSU was beaten convincingly by OU and MSU was hammered by ND and both were home games for the B1G.

The only guarantee the B1G has is if Wisconsin wins. There is no guaranteed spot otherwise, and I have a feeling the loss to Iowa is going to kill OSU and there is no excuse for it.

I would agree, but it's shaping up to be a weird year.. so take your pick.

Winner of SEC
Winner of ACC
Notre Dame
BIG / PAC ???

 

[gpm1976]

Why? tOSU had no business in the playoff last year. They didn't win their division nor their conference and were an ass hair away from 5 losses. There is a reason they were stomped and embarrassed by Clemson and that's b/c they had no business being there in the 1st place, but you guys sell hotel rooms and tickets and are good for the local economy. This year, you guys already have 2 losses and were curbstomped by an average, unranked Iowa team. Now in 2015, tOSU should have been in the playoff without a doubt. I firmly believe ya'll would have gone back to back if it wasn't for that fluke loss to MSU.

How about other teams stop fucking losing so that OSU can be dropped from the conversation..? The PAC is a bigger mess than the BIG right now and no one wants to see a conference get two teams in.. so what do you do? If OSU wins the BIG, they are in the conversation yet again.

 

[Myles]

3 SEC teams? NO fucking way......TCU is just as worthy of a 2 loss team as AU.

Not according to the rankings. It's all we have.