Would you rather have Mike Trout with current contract or the first overall pick in next 5 drafts?

[MilkSpiller22]

To highlight specific deficiencies in the prospect, problems that may cause him to fail as well.

Just for starters

But prospects are like every single MLB team during preseason... Full of optimism... if you compare a player to a bust, then your not helping anybody... If you compare a player to a success then you add value to that player for future trades, you give the player some needed confidence, and I am sure much more happens...

 

[DragonfromTO]

But prospects are like every single MLB team during preseason... Full of optimism... if you compare a player to a bust, then your not helping anybody... If you compare a player to a success then you add value to that player for future trades, you give the player some needed confidence, and I am sure much more happens...

Why would anyone not employed by the prospect's team give a shit about adding trade value to the player and filling him with confidence though?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Why would anyone not employed by the prospect's team give a shit about adding trade value to the player and filling him with confidence though?

the original comparison probably came by scouts trying to convince their teams to sign/draft him... Then the team that drafts the player will clearly only add to hype... But the comparison is certainly a big piece of any hype... Once something is said, it cant be unsaid... and these teams will just harp on it to over value their players... Then the rest of the media tends to report whatever they hear, and clearly the comparison is going to be loud...

 

[WiggyRuss]

Basically,

Trout
2016: $15.2M, 2017: $19.2M, 2018: $33.2M, 2019:$33.2M, 2020: $33.2M

Or

First overall pick in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts?

WAR's of last five overall draft picks:
Dansby Swanson: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Brady Aiken: 0 (did not sign; has not appeared in MLB)
Mark Appel: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Carlos Correa: 3.3
Gerrit Cole: 10.2

I ran the data, and since the first overall pick back in 1965, the average WAR is 21.4. This, however, is obviously impacted by all the players who never reached the majors and thus posted WAR's of 0, so let's look at the median, which turns out to be 17.2. Only 25% of the players had career WARs of 28.9 or higher. In only four full seasons, Trout has posted a WAR that is nearly 10 wins better than 75% of first round picks over their full careers. So it would appear Trout is clearly the right choice.

But we're not comparing five years of Trout to one draft pick; we're comparing him to five first overall draft picks. So let's look at the average career WAR of the five best draft picks. That comes out to a WAR of 75.4. And that's their whole careers, and a best-case scenario. Trout could get 45 wins over the next five years alone. I don't think it's close, I'd take Trout's contract.

id take Trout--- best player of his generation- probablythe best player since Barry Bonds---- I dont know how Trout does not end up as a top 10 guy of all time in all likelihood....for that? gotta take Trout...

now if Harper was among those #1 overalls- along with some other solid talent- it would be a much more difficult conversation.

 

[uncfan103]

Give me the picks. I'm the type of guy that refuses to put all my eggs in one basket. I may not draft another Trout, but is there probability that I get two guys that could match his WAR? I'd say that's a good shot.

I haven't read past this so far, so you could've addressed it in the 6 other pages but...

Why do you want two guys to match one players WAR? You still are a position behind. You're not playing an extra player just because you have two guys matching one players WAR.

You could have Trout (9 WAR) and Calhoun (3 WAR) or you could have two draft picks that combine for a 9 WAR. You're going to choose every time to take Trout and Calhoun over two players that generate 9 WAR together.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I haven't read past this so far, so you could've addressed it in the 6 other pages but...

Why do you want two guys to match one players WAR? You still are a position behind. You're not playing an extra player just because you have two guys matching one players WAR.

You could have Trout (9 WAR) and Calhoun (3 WAR) or you could have two draft picks that combine for a 9 WAR. You're going to choose every time to take Trout and Calhoun over two players that generate 9 WAR together.

you are right, but that was not forman meant... It was the correct argument, just not correctly argued...

 

[The Q]

I haven't read past this so far, so you could've addressed it in the 6 other pages but...

Why do you want two guys to match one players WAR? You still are a position behind. You're not playing an extra player just because you have two guys matching one players WAR.

You could have Trout (9 WAR) and Calhoun (3 WAR) or you could have two draft picks that combine for a 9 WAR. You're going to choose every time to take Trout and Calhoun over two players that generate 9 WAR together.

Part of it is the $$. I'll take that extra 16 mil plus 2 players. To get a guy like Cole on the open marketnis more than that 16 mil.

 

[tducey]

Mike Trout.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

I think one man could do it.. if that one man was the milk man...

That shit be sour

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I think it depends on the situation of the team. For the Mets, adding Mike Trout to the lineup to go along with our pitching staff would put them over the top and they would be real World Series contenders for the next 5 years.

 

[Omar 382]

Hey, stats are fine, pull up Correa's first 432 AB's(all he's had) and match them against ARod's first 432 AB's....not his first 800 or 1500, both of their 1st 432 . I don't have time now, but if you can't find it, I will post it later . ARod had like 200 or so going into his 3rd season, so those two plus his 1st 230 or so of that season. 432 vs 432, I already have a pretty good idea, can't wait for you to post the results

Can't blame that on Correa though, as I'm sure you know, the best young players are often held back when they are ready, case in point, Kris Bryant .My guess is Correa could have matched the paltry numbers ARod put up at 18-19 for 200 AB's.

Carlos Correa: .256/.351/.423 with a .338 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ in 268 PA this year. 11th among shortstops in WAR this year.

Man, you got me. Good thing your knowledge of rotational swings allowed you to see that Correa is the next A-Rod

 

[The Q]

Carlos Correa: .256/.351/.423 with a .338 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ in 268 PA this year. 11th among shortstops in WAR this year.

Man, you got me. Good thing your knowledge of rotational swings allowed you to see that Correa is the next A-Rod

to be fair, rotational swings is the correct swing.

I HATE these fake teachers who teach things like squish the bug or swing down the on ball (like chopping a tree).

That is NOT how the best hitters hit.

 

[Omar 382]

to be fair, rotational swings is the correct swing.

I HATE these fake teachers who teach things like squish the bug or swing down the on ball (like chopping a tree).

That is NOT how the best hitters hit.

That was besides the point. UGay was claiming that because Correa had a certain swing, he was going to be A-Rod 2.0.

I'm not a swing expert, but I believe that all hitters use both swing paths occasionally, with some using one more than the other. If you're trying to make contact with a man on third and less than 2 outs, I think a linear swing is better, but if you're a power hitter or want to hit for power, a rotational swing is more useful.

 

[UK Cowboy]

That was besides the point. UGay was claiming that because Correa had a certain swing, he was going to be A-Rod 2.0.

I'm not a swing expert, but I believe that all hitters use both swing paths occasionally, with some using one more than the other. If you're trying to make contact with a man on third and less than 2 outs, I think a linear swing is better, but if you're a power hitter or want to hit for power, a rotational swing is more useful.

UGay? If anyone is feminine, it's a stat geek who never made varsity and was on JV as a freshman. You're a joke Omar, but I'm still willing to be buddies. Just to show their are no hard feelings, I will give you a free class at my MMA school anytime you make it to East Texas. Just sign the waiver and the lesson will be free

 

[UK Cowboy]

to be fair, rotational swings is the correct swing.

I HATE these fake teachers who teach things like squish the bug or swing down the on ball (like chopping a tree).

That is NOT how the best hitters hit.

Finally, an intelligent post...

 

[The Q]

Finally, an intelligent post...

You heard of Don Slaught's Right View Pro?

 

[UK Cowboy]

That was besides the point. UGay was claiming that because Correa had a certain swing, he was going to be A-Rod 2.0.

I'm not a swing expert, but I believe that all hitters use both swing paths occasionally, with some using one more than the other. If you're trying to make contact with a man on third and less than 2 outs, I think a linear swing is better, but if you're a power hitter or want to hit for power, a rotational swing is more useful.

Considering you never made it past JV, I doubt you could describe the difference between a linear, rotational, or a bungee swing for that matter

 

[UK Cowboy]

You heard of Don Slaught's Right View Pro?

Yep, I have a friend who coaches HS in Tyler that likes to use it with his younger kids to teach mechanics. Showing my age(47), I remember when Slaught caught for my Rangers lol

 

[The Q]

Yep, I have a friend who coaches HS in Tyler that likes to use it with his younger kids to teach mechanics. Showing my age(47), I remember when Slaught caught for my Rangers lol

I got it when I played in college.

Love that damn system.

Haven't used it in years though.

I could probably make money just doing swing reviews by plugging them into RVP lol.

 

[Omar 382]

UGay? If anyone is feminine, it's a stat geek who never made varsity and was on JV as a freshman. You're a joke Omar, but I'm still willing to be buddies. Just to show their are no hard feelings, I will give you a free class at my MMA school anytime you make it to East Texas. Just sign the waiver and the lesson will be free

Keep ignoring the original point, UGay