Would you rather have Mike Trout with current contract or the first overall pick in next 5 drafts?

[MilkSpiller22]

The over excessive comp's always make me laugh. I had to put up with 5 years of foreplay hearing Domonic Brown being the next Darryl Strawberry, and look how that worked out. Just because someone plays the same position, and has a similar swing, doesn't mean they will be as good a player (I would have thought that was common sense, but....)

thats my point, the comparisons don't mean that the careers will shadow each other, but how they have similar potential... would you ever compare a prospect to a failed player?? whats the purpose of that???

 

[Omar 382]

My point, which i think i was making to something that you never really said, was that anyone can just read advanced stats... the people who make the big bucks don't just read the stats given and say oooh player A has a great ERA+ or anything like that, they will create their own stats using their own values on what your team weighs to be most important...

I am a stat-head too, and i have looked at most advanced stats, i look at the weights they give some things and i disagree...

And there is one thing for sure, there are different skills that have different importance in different spots of the lineup...

For example, the number one spot i think the 4 most important stats are OBP, BB, and SB and SB%... But the middle of the lineup SBs are not as important while HR becomes more important....

OBP/BB and SB/SB% are basically the same thing. I guess SB and SB% are valuable when viewed separately, but why do you care about walks if a guy's OBP is .400? Also, it's a pretty well-supported theory that batting order makes very little difference in win probability, typically ranging from an extra half-win to make a win and a half. Now of course that is thrown out the window if the pitcher isn't batting eighth or ninth, but other than that, it's a very small difference.

Still, a win could mean the difference in winning a championship or not

 

[MilkSpiller22]

OBP/BB and SB/SB% are basically the same thing. I guess SB and SB% are valuable when viewed separately, but why do you care about walks if a guy's OBP is .400? Also, it's a pretty well-supported theory that batting order makes very little difference in win probability, typically ranging from an extra half-win to make a win and a half. Now of course that is thrown out the window if the pitcher isn't batting eighth or ninth, but other than that, it's a very small difference.

Still, a win could mean the difference in winning a championship or not

not exactly... and i mentioned both on purpose... you can have a high OBP without walking, but i want my lead off to be able to walk... and SB and SB% i want lots of SB attempts at a high percentage...

and i don't agree with that whole batting order doesn't matter... you need to maximize your best players, and to have players on the bases for your best hitters is how to do that...

 

[Omar 382]

not exactly... and i mentioned both on purpose... you can have a high OBP without walking, but i want my lead off to be able to walk... and SB and SB% i want lots of SB attempts at a high percentage...

and i don't agree with that whole batting order doesn't matter... you need to maximize your best players, and to have players on the bases for your best hitters is how to do that...

Why do you care if a player walks vs. gets a hit? In fact, if a player gets a hit, they can get an extra-base hit, while a walk only results in the batter reaching first. Even assuming the comparison is between a walk and a single, using linear weights, a single is 29% more valuable in run value than an unintentional walk.

As far as batting order, this is a good article showing how much it really matters. The Sober Angels: Where To Bat Your Best Hitter - Part V

 

[UK Cowboy]

The comparison is not to Alex Rodriguez the MLB player but Alex Rodriguez the minor league player... Nobody is saying that Correa will become just as good as AROD, but that Correa reminds people of how AROD looked before he became a top player of all time... It does not mean Correa will follow in his footsteps, just that their skills at that point are comparable...

there is a difference, but it is hard to differentiate...

Yeah, but that's exactly what I said Milk... A "young ARod"...

 

[UK Cowboy]

Yeah, because scouts are infallible. Mark Prior, Brien Taylor, Bryan Bullington, Shawn Abner, Billy Beane, Dave Roberts- scouts jizzed all over those guys' tools and they were all just great players, weren't they?

Omar, the scouts aren't grading a major leaguers numbers after the fact, they are projecting young players with hundreds of variables .It's far easier to do the former, which is why there are so many amateur analytics

 

[Omar 382]

Omar, the scouts aren't grading a major leaguers numbers after the fact, they are projecting young players with hundreds of variables .It's far easier to do the former, which is why there are so many amateur analytics

So you're agreeing statistics are a safer bet in evaluating a player than the eye test?

 

[Omar 382]

Yeah, but that's exactly what I said Milk... A "young ARod"...

A "young A-Rod" insinuates that he is on the same career path as Rodriguez

 

[StanMarsh51]

Can't blame that on Correa though, as I'm sure you know, the best young players are often held back when they are ready, case in point, Kris Bryant .My guess is Correa could have matched the paltry numbers ARod put up at 18-19 for 200 AB's.

Could've, would've, but the fact is we don't know.


Let's look at it this way:
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 18
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 19
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 20

Put those 3 together, and we can conclude something here...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yeah, but that's exactly what I said Milk... A "young ARod"...

shutup... i will get to you later....

 

[Omar 382]

Could've, would've, but the fact is we don't know.


Let's look at it this way:
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 18
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 19
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 20

Put those 3 together, and we can conclude something here...

And I'll bet he'll be better in 95% of the two's age seasons. The only shot Correa really has is maybe his age 23 season.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Why do you care if a player walks vs. gets a hit? In fact, if a player gets a hit, they can get an extra-base hit, while a walk only results in the batter reaching first. Even assuming the comparison is between a walk and a single, using linear weights, a single is 29% more valuable in run value than an unintentional walk.

As far as batting order, this is a good article showing how much it really matters. The Sober Angels: Where To Bat Your Best Hitter - Part V

its not the walk i care about, it is that players who walk see pitches... I want the top of my order to see pitches, especially vs the better SPs... the sooner to get into the bullpen the better...

 

[Omar 382]

its not the walk i care about, it is that players who walk see pitches... I want the top of my order to see pitches, especially vs the better SPs... the sooner to get into the bullpen the better...

I just don't view knocking out the SP as being more important than sacrificing a potential extra-base hit (if those are the two options) especially with how good bullpens are now

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I just don't view knocking out the SP as being more important than sacrificing a potential extra-base hit (if those are the two options) especially with how good bullpens are now

i was talking about the top of the lineup where we are not talking about power bats... also, Bullpens might be better now than ever before, but the longer they have to pitch the worse it is for everyone... Not to mention teams generally play a 3 or 4 game series, the more a Bullpen pitches in one game the less ready they are for later games in the same series... its not just a play for one game strategy...

 

[UK Cowboy]

And I'll bet he'll be better in 95% of the two's age seasons. The only shot Correa really has is maybe his age 23 season.

That's still young Jr

 

[UK Cowboy]

Could've, would've, but the fact is we don't know.


Let's look at it this way:
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 18
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 19
A-Rod performed much better than Correa at age 20

Put those 3 together, and we can conclude something here...

Post those first 432 for each and kiss my butt

 

[da55bums]

thats my point, the comparisons don't mean that the careers will shadow each other, but how they have similar potential... would you ever compare a prospect to a failed player?? whats the purpose of that???

Joey Gallo will be the next Dallas McPherson...it can be valueable in keeper leagues..lol

 

[StanMarsh51]

Post those first 432 for each and kiss my butt

Keep thinking that age is irrelevant when comparing the career trajectory of players...

 

[UK Cowboy]

Keep thinking that age is irrelevant when comparing the career trajectory of players...

What, 18 to 19? Totally irrelevant

 

[DragonfromTO]

thats my point, the comparisons don't mean that the careers will shadow each other, but how they have similar potential... would you ever compare a prospect to a failed player?? whats the purpose of that???

To highlight specific deficiencies in the prospect, problems that may cause him to fail as well.

Just for starters