Would you rather have Mike Trout with current contract or the first overall pick in next 5 drafts?

[UK Cowboy]

Yeah, 432 PA, and he's certain to get into the top 1.5% of shortstops of all time

Yep, stick around a few years and you'll see I was right

 

[fordman84]

Give me the picks. I'm the type of guy that refuses to put all my eggs in one basket. I may not draft another Trout, but is there probability that I get two guys that could match his WAR? I'd say that's a good shot.

 

[UK Cowboy]

Except A-Rod was much better in the majors at age 20 and much better in the minors than Correa.

Much better? Debatable . At 18, ARod got 59 MLB AB's and hit .204 with 0 HR .At 19, 149 AB, 5 HR, .233. At 20, he had a monster year with 677 for 36 and .358, then not as good a year at 21. Last year was Correa's MLB debut at 20, and he had 432 AB for 22 HR and .279 average . Looking at their 20 year old year, ARod had the edge, but if you break down their first 432 AB's, they are dead even. I fully expect .300 and 30+ HR from Correa this year, which would be right in line with ARod at 21

 

[UK Cowboy]

Give me the picks. I'm the type of guy that refuses to put all my eggs in one basket. I may not draft another Trout, but is there probability that I get two guys that could match his WAR? I'd say that's a good shot.

Exactly, and this is where WAR alone goes awry. Trouts value as compared to 5 players can be measured in the fact that he is the games best player, and the Angels still suck . One hitter can be pitched around .Correa can be pitched around as well, but the value of a good SS exceeds an OF defensively. As to an ace pitcher like Cole, you have to look at what he does for the entire rotation .Not only does he win the majority of his starts, but he bumps the former ace to #2, the #2 to #3, all the way down

 

[Omar 382]

Exactly, and this is where WAR alone goes awry. Trouts value as compared to 5 players can be measured in the fact that he is the games best player, and the Angels still suck . One hitter can be pitched around .Correa can be pitched around as well, but the value of a good SS exceeds an OF defensively. As to an ace pitcher like Cole, you have to look at what he does for the entire rotation .Not only does he win the majority of his starts, but he bumps the former ace to #2, the #2 to #3, all the way down

Ugh. We're comparing apples and oranges. No, not apples and oranges. Apples and fucking rainbows. In 1996, Rodriguez, in 245 MORE PLATE APPEARANCES, had a wRC+ of 159 and a wOBA of .443. One of the greatest seasons from a shortstop of all time (probably the greatest if a guy named Honus Wagner never existed). In 2015, Correa had a wRC+ of 133 and a wOBA of .365. Not that I'd expect you to know what any of that means though

 

[Omar 382]

Exactly, and this is where WAR alone goes awry. Trouts value as compared to 5 players can be measured in the fact that he is the games best player, and the Angels still suck . One hitter can be pitched around .Correa can be pitched around as well, but the value of a good SS exceeds an OF defensively. As to an ace pitcher like Cole, you have to look at what he does for the entire rotation .Not only does he win the majority of his starts, but he bumps the former ace to #2, the #2 to #3, all the way down

And doesn't Trout push another center fielder into a bench role, and a bench player to a minors?

 

[Omar 382]

I hope no alcoholics ever read UK's posts. His logic may force them back to the bottle

 

[Davis_Mike]

It depends where my team is at the time of the decision. If it's a team mixed with both young & old talent who is close to or is competing, I'd take Trout. Otherwise, I'd take the picks.

 

[HammerDown]

Gimme the picks.

This without a moment's hesitation.

Trout is playing in Anaheim with Pujols. He could get popped any day now.

 

[HammerDown]

I hope no alcoholics ever read UK's posts. His logic may force them back to the bottle

Good thing there are no alcoholics on da Hoop.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

And doesn't Trout push another center fielder into a bench role, and a bench player to a minors?

I actually do wonder if SP have any true affect on eachother... Did Kershaw make Greinke better?? did Greinke make Kershaw better?? I could see maybe a couple wins due to opposing pitcher...

 

[StanMarsh51]

Much better? Debatable . At 18, ARod got 59 MLB AB's and hit .204 with 0 HR .At 19, 149 AB, 5 HR, .233. At 20, he had a monster year with 677 for 36 and .358, then not as good a year at 21. Last year was Correa's MLB debut at 20, and he had 432 AB for 22 HR and .279 average . Looking at their 20 year old year, ARod had the edge, but if you break down their first 432 AB's, they are dead even. I fully expect .300 and 30+ HR from Correa this year, which would be right in line with ARod at 21

A-Rod nearly won (and probably deserved) MVP at age 20. Correa had a great season last year, but was nowhere near MVP caliber. Add that to A-Rod performing much better in the minors, and I don't see how A-Rod wasn't much better at the same age as Correa is. Correa wasn't even in the majors at age 18-19 so I'm not sure why that's in the comparison.

A-Rod did have a down 1997 (2nd full year), but the next 6 years after that averaged .310/47/127 with a 150 OPS+....that's asking for a lot for any player to do.

 

[Omar 382]

I actually do wonder if SP have any true affect on eachother... Did Kershaw make Greinke better?? did Greinke make Kershaw better?? I could see maybe a couple wins due to opposing pitcher...

I'm sure at the very least there is some psychological advantage a team has when an opposing team knows they're getting Greinke and Kershaw back to back in a series.

 

[calsnowskier]

And A-Rod played at the Kingdome while Correa plays at MinuteMaid. BIG difference there...

 

[Omar 382]

I would expect a character with the ilk of UK to come back with some bullshit about batting average, but that isn't even applicable here

 

[Omar 382]

A-Rod nearly won (and probably deserved) MVP at age 20. Correa had a great season last year, but was nowhere near MVP caliber. Add that to A-Rod performing much better in the minors, and I don't see how A-Rod wasn't much better at the same age as Correa is. Correa wasn't even in the majors at age 18-19 so I'm not sure why that's in the comparison.

A-Rod did have a down 1997 (2nd full year), but the next 6 years after that averaged .310/47/127 with a 150 OPS+....that's asking for a lot for any player to do.

I notice that you use OPS+ a lot in some of your posts. While not a bad stat, why do you favor it over wRC+?

 

[UK Cowboy]

I hope no alcoholics ever read UK's posts. His logic may force them back to the bottle

Interesting take, considering your dumbass said clearly take Trout, and the majority of the rest that posted said give me the picks

 

[Omar 382]

Interesting take, considering your dumbass said clearly take Trout, and the majority of the rest that posted said give me the picks

Actually most everyone said it's dependent on a team's current bearings, which I agreed with.

 

[Omar 382]

Interesting take, considering your dumbass said clearly take Trout, and the majority of the rest that posted said give me the picks

Let's take the draft picks from 2006-2010 and fit their production to the 2016-2020 seasons. These players have had time to flesh themselves out.
2016: 0 WAR (no one appeared in MLB)
2017: 0 WAR (Hochever with 0 WAR)
2018: 1.5 (Hochever: 1.3 WAR, Price: 0.2 WAR)
2019: 2.3 WAR (Hochever: 1.0 WAR, Price: 1.3 WAR)
2020: 8.3 WAR (Hochever: 1.6 WAR, Price: 4.2 WAR, Strasburg: 2.5 WAR)

So from 2016-2020, you would have a combined WAR of 12.1. Surely Trout will beat this.

This analysis, of course, is directed only towards the seasons of 2016-2020. From 2020-2025, the first round picks will likely surpass Trout. So maybe it's more of a reflection if a team is competing now (Mets or Cubs or Pirates) or looking to rebuild (Phillies, Brewers, Braves)

 

[UK Cowboy]

I notice that you use OPS+ a lot in some of your posts. While not a bad stat, why do you favor it over wRC+?

Jr, I've forgotten more about the game than you'll ever know .Have you ever coached a game? Seriously? Did you play?