Would you rather have Mike Trout with current contract or the first overall pick in next 5 drafts?

[huskers1217]

Basically,

Trout
2016: $15.2M, 2017: $19.2M, 2018: $33.2M, 2019:$33.2M, 2020: $33.2M

Or

First overall pick in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts?

WAR's of last five overall draft picks:
Dansby Swanson: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Brady Aiken: 0 (did not sign; has not appeared in MLB)
Mark Appel: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Carlos Correa: 3.3
Gerrit Cole: 10.2

I ran the data, and since the first overall pick back in 1965, the average WAR is 21.4. This, however, is obviously impacted by all the players who never reached the majors and thus posted WAR's of 0, so let's look at the median, which turns out to be 17.2. Only 25% of the players had career WARs of 28.9 or higher. In only four full seasons, Trout has posted a WAR that is nearly 10 wins better than 75% of first round picks over their full careers. So it would appear Trout is clearly the right choice.

But we're not comparing five years of Trout to one draft pick; we're comparing him to five first overall draft picks. So let's look at the average career WAR of the five best draft picks. That comes out to a WAR of 75.4. And that's their whole careers, and a best-case scenario. Trout could get 45 wins over the next five years alone. I don't think it's close, I'd take Trout's contract.

depends on where the team is. If its the Braves...the picks. If its a team that is close to a world series...you gotta go Trout

 

[Omar 382]

Let's take the draft picks from 2006-2010 and fit their production to the 2016-2020 seasons. These players have had time to flesh themselves out.
2016: 0 WAR (no one appeared in MLB)
2017: 0 WAR (Hochever with 0 WAR)
2018: 1.5 (Hochever: 1.3 WAR, Price: 0.2 WAR)
2019: 2.3 WAR (Hochever: 1.0 WAR, Price: 1.3 WAR)
2020: 8.3 WAR (Hochever: 1.6 WAR, Price: 4.2 WAR, Strasburg: 2.5 WAR)

So from 2016-2020, you would have a combined WAR of 12.1. Surely Trout will beat this.

This analysis, of course, is directed only towards the seasons of 2016-2020. From 2020-2025, the first round picks will likely surpass Trout. So maybe it's more of a reflection if a team is competing now (Mets or Cubs or Pirates) or looking to rebuild (Phillies, Brewers, Braves)

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants turned the '06 (Timmeh), '07 (Bum) and '08 (Buster) drafts into 3 rings.

That is an amazing string of not missing on top picks, granted. But we are talking five TOP picks, meaning you get your choice of everyone. Also, with Trout, you would be putting all your eggs in one basket. If he gets hurt, boom, you are done. With the picks, not only do you have the potential of 5 solid players, you are also spreading your risk.

Further, this discussion assumes Trout or picks is found money. That means that with either choice, we would still have our regular draft picks. You think the Cubs and Astros have stacked farms right now?

 

[Omar 382]

The Giants turned the '06 (Timmeh), '07 (Bum) and '08 (Buster) drafts into 3 rings.

That is an amazing string of not missing on top picks, granted. But we are talking five TOP picks, meaning you get your choice of everyone. Also, with Trout, you would be putting all your eggs in one basket. If he gets hurt, boom, you are done. With the picks, not only do you have the potential of 5 solid players, you are also spreading your risk.

Further, this discussion assumes Trout or picks is found money. That means that with either choice, we would still have our regular draft picks. You think the Cubs and Astros have stacked farms right now?

I meant to include that you get no draft picks. My bad. But if you still get draft picks, that tips the scales on the picks side a little further.

 

[Omar 382]

depends on where the team is. If its the Braves...the picks. If its a team that is close to a world series...you gotta go Trout

Yeah, basically my conclusion.

 

[calsnowskier]

I meant to include that you get no draft picks. My bad. But if you still get draft picks, that tips the scales on the picks side a little further.

So no draft picks, either way?

Baseball team s a team sport. No single player can win you a ring (look at Bonds' trophy case).

 

[The Q]

I think it depends on the organization making the decision. If we are talking about the Padres who are well known to fuck themselves with their draft picks, I think you take Trout. If you are talking Houston, St Louis or San Fran, who have decent scouting departments, I think you go for the picks.

If you go back just a few additional years, you detailed list changes quite dramatically...

2010: Bryce Harper
2009: Stephen Strasburg
2008: Tim Beckham (Posey was picked #5 because of contract demands)
2007: David Price

There has not been a #1 overall legitimate not make the majors since 2004 (Matt Bush, who was called AT THE TIME one of the dumbest picks ever).

Basically, you only need to hit a HR with one of the picks, assuming you get solid players with 3 of the other 4 picks to make it a no brainer.

Bush wasn't even a legit 1-1. He was a Tim Beckham 1-1 when guys like weaver and Stephen drew wanted more than the padres wanted to pay.

 

[The Q]

But damn can you imagine the course of history if the rays took Posey like they wanted to?

 

[calsnowskier]

But damn can you imagine the course of history if the rays took Posey like they wanted to?

They would have been able to market the shit outta that. And the Giants would have likely been stuck with Justin Smoak.

I think Posey has pretty much single-handedly changed all teams strategy in the draft to basically ignore bonus demands. If the guy is good, any bonus will prove to be a bargain in the long run.

 

[molsaniceman]

Damn...Tim Beckam was a #1 pick?

so was these guys who never made it to mlb
Steven Lynn Chilcott 1966 nym
matt bush 2004 SD
brien taylor 1991 nyy

 

[Omar 382]

So no draft picks, either way?

Baseball team s a team sport. No single player can win you a ring (look at Bonds' trophy case).

Sure, but it is assumed that you had a supporting cast from free agents/trades in this scenario. And there have been instances of one player assuming the bulk of a team's production. The 1985 Royals with George Brett come to mind

 

[The Q]

Let's not forget you'd have the 17 mil from trouts salary if you had Cole and correa. So you could get 3 or 4 players for that money, in theory.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Brien Taylor was a Cheap Shot!

 

[The Q]

They would have been able to market the shit outta that. And the Giants would have likely been stuck with Justin Smoak.

I think Posey has pretty much single-handedly changed all teams strategy in the draft to basically ignore bonus demands. If the guy is good, any bonus will prove to be a bargain in the long run.

That used ti happen allbthe time. Now with the new shitty cba (that just makes athletes moreblikely to play other sports), you don't see this issue nearly as often.

 

[UK Cowboy]

Basically,

Trout
2016: $15.2M, 2017: $19.2M, 2018: $33.2M, 2019:$33.2M, 2020: $33.2M

Or

First overall pick in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 drafts?

WAR's of last five overall draft picks:
Dansby Swanson: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Brady Aiken: 0 (did not sign; has not appeared in MLB)
Mark Appel: 0 (has not appeared in MLB)
Carlos Correa: 3.3
Gerrit Cole: 10.2

I ran the data, and since the first overall pick back in 1965, the average WAR is 21.4. This, however, is obviously impacted by all the players who never reached the majors and thus posted WAR's of 0, so let's look at the median, which turns out to be 17.2. Only 25% of the players had career WARs of 28.9 or higher. In only four full seasons, Trout has posted a WAR that is nearly 10 wins better than 75% of first round picks over their full careers. So it would appear Trout is clearly the right choice.

But we're not comparing five years of Trout to one draft pick; we're comparing him to five first overall draft picks. So let's look at the average career WAR of the five best draft picks. That comes out to a WAR of 75.4. And that's their whole careers, and a best-case scenario. Trout could get 45 wins over the next five years alone. I don't think it's close, I'd take Trout's contract.

I'd take the 5 picks without hesitation. Cole is already a top flight ace and Correa is a young ARod. Add at least 1 more star, more likely 2 from the other 3 and it's not even close .Bottom line, how many games did the Angels win last year? Now, what about the Pirates and Astro's? Put those 5 games on a team instead of Trout and they'd be far better, despite Trouts greatness .You can pitch around 1 great hitter, and he doesn't pitch

 

[UK Cowboy]

Even with their unpredictability and uncertainty? You are a betting man

WAR is a tool, not an end all. Using it as the only method of analysis is ridiculous

 

[Omar 382]

WAR is a tool, not an end all. Using it as the only method of analysis is ridiculous

And where did I do that? You keep acting like that's all I use, and it's not.

 

[Omar 382]

I'd take the 5 picks without hesitation. Cole is already a top flight ace and Correa is a young ARod. Add at least 1 more star, more likely 2 from the other 3 and it's not even close .Bottom line, how many games did the Angels win last year? Now, what about the Pirates and Astro's? Put those 5 games on a team instead of Trout and they'd be far better, despite Trouts greatness .You can pitch around 1 great hitter, and he doesn't pitch

Yeah, 432 PA, and he's certain to get into the top 1.5% of shortstops of all time

 

[MilkSpiller22]

It really does depend on team and where they are currently... If I am a playoff contender right now, why would I trade my best player for 5 future 1st pick of the draft(assuming a team has those picks)...

But if my team is not in a realistic chance to win the WS then I would do it in heart beat... with 5 picks your future should be solid for years to come... But I would always pick win now than win later as long as I can win now...

 

[StanMarsh51]

I'd take the 5 picks without hesitation. Cole is already a top flight ace and Correa is a young ARod. Add at least 1 more star, more likely 2 from the other 3 and it's not even close .Bottom line, how many games did the Angels win last year? Now, what about the Pirates and Astro's? Put those 5 games on a team instead of Trout and they'd be far better, despite Trouts greatness .You can pitch around 1 great hitter, and he doesn't pitch

Except A-Rod was much better in the majors at age 20 and much better in the minors than Correa.