wilwhite's RB rankings

[wilwhite]

Tier I
1. Charles - Smith and Reid both improve the offense, and Charles should benefit greatly, barely edging to the top of the list.
2. Foster - Did Foster tail off towards the end of the season? Yep… but I suspect Foster will do what’s necessary to stay in form (maybe mixing in some salmon or something). I don’t see him climbing here; I just see him treading water and AP dropping a shade.
3. AP – A close third; it’s reasonable to expect a small dip after a career year.
4. Rice – Some move him down with the loss of Pitta and Boldin; I move him up. They’ll run him into the ground this year and shovel lots of short passes his way, because they don’t really have a lot of other options.

Tier II
5. Martin – The Hamster’s not the stud some are looking for, and he ain’t posting another 52-pt game this year. See him instead as a solid player who will give you something good almost every week, and sometimes something great. He can be a key piece, but he’s not the dominant fantasy force some are expecting.
6. Lynch – Lynch had crazy production on limited touches in the second half last year. In the last five games he only had 20 carries once, but had a crazy 6.4 YPC and a bunch of TDs. I expect the touches to stay down, and it’s hard to keep up insane YPC like that, which is why he drops a little, but the TDs should still be there, which is why he doesn’t drop far.
7. McCoy – Difficult to gauge the Eagles with all their unknowns, but it’s hard to find a scenario where they won’t lean heavily on McCoy, and he has the talent to make it pay off.
8. Forte – Trestman should find all kinds of ways to use Forte (who has all kinds of skills).
9. TRich – Plenty of touches, but a weak O and a lot of punishment keep him out of the top tier.

Tier III
10. Le'Veon Bell – This is a quantity pick, as I think he’ll be the bell cow (pffff) - an every-down back who can reliably gain yards, pass-protect, and catch, even if he doesn’t have breakaway speed. Obviously this is a high ranking for him, so maybe you can wait a little, but don’t wait too long.
11. McFadden – This is where super-stud’s projection comes out for me for 13 games, so on a per-game basis you have to put him higher. He’s back to the blocking scheme that suits him, but I’ll never project him for 16 games until he plays, I dunno… 14… some day….
12. Reggie Bush – Great opportunity in Detroit for a superior pass-catching back who can also run and is a solid red-zone weapon.
13. CJ1K – Time to appreciate him for what he is: a guy who will reliably get you 1400 total yards and a handful of TDs. And the potential is still there for plenty more.
14. Morris – Helu is back and Morris doesn’t catch very well. As solid as Morris is, he’s no Terrell Davis, and Shanahan is still Shanahan. Beware of a drop in playing time through no fault of his own.
16. SJAX – Looks great on paper, but it’s easy for me to imagine him missing a couple of games, or playing limited, and ending up with under 1000 rushing yards, 400 passing yards, and a half dozen TDs. Not bad, but probably not what some people are expecting.
15. MJD – The Jags will run him into the ground (however far that is) and he’ll take it as an opportunity to show he still has it in a contract year. How much of the season that will actually work out for is a mystery.
17. DeMarco Murray – See McFadden; and Randle could threaten his carries.
18. C.J. Spiller – You probably won’t see him this low anywhere else. No knock on Spiller; I just think FJAX impacts his carries more than people expect, the Bills may have actually downgraded at QB, and Spiller will throw up at about 22 touches.
19. Ridley – The Pats’ O won’t be what it was, so Ridley won’t have the same opportunities. Couple that with an emerging Vereen and I see Ridley slipping a little.
20. Gio Bernard – 2013’s Doug Martin (lite). He doesn’t come in with the cachet Martin had, and BJGE is better all-around than Blount, but he’s the future in Cincinnati and will get his chances on an otherwise very good O. He’s another guy you can grab late in the hopes I’m not a total idiot.
21. Lamar Miller – Decent talent in a good situation. The Dolphins will give him lots of chances to do his thing; he just has to do it consistently.

Tier III
22. David Wilson – Giants may have one of the best rushing attacks in football this year. 55% of that isn’t so exciting, though. Brown cuts in deep.
23. Montee Ball – Like the player, don’t like the situation. In Denver it’s all about protecting Peyton and being able to adjust to audibles to stay on the field, and Ball has stiff competition in those areas even if he’s the best RB in every other respect. That may cost him enough playing time to limit his fantasy success.
24. Frank Gore – Another guy I have way down. He could prove me wrong, but I just can’t believe he has another fully productive season in him.
25. Mendenhall – At this point guys make the list somehow just because they’re starters. If Ryan Williams could pick his navel without breaking his finger you should worry, but for now Mendy’s the guy – a very decent back on a very suspect offense.
26. Sproles – The spork of the NFL. Top-quality spork, too.
27. Ivory – Seems the Jets’ master plan is to get Ivory 15 touches a game. Maybe if his name was Chris Granite they’d let him play more.
28. Lacy – You might think the main things a GB running back has to do are keep Rodgers upright and keep defenses honest. And you’d probably be right. So there’s not much reason to throw a rookie out there unless he’s better than the other FOUR guys you’re looking at. Okay, soon it will be only the other three guys when rosters are cut down … but DuJuan Harris earned some coach love late last year and Starks and Green are turning it up a notch, who knows what Franklin will bring, and the Packers don’t live by the run anyway.
29. Zac Stacy – Somebody has to get the most carries in St. Louis. I suspect Stacy eventually gets the nod.
30. Bradshaw – Take a flier; maybe he’ll be healthy enough to start some games for you. He’s tough and good.
31. Mathews – I just… can’t… deal with this guy any more.
32. Vereen – Moves up with the role he’ll almost certainly be asked to play in NE this year.

Tier IV
33. Andre Brown – The Giants coaches love this guy. And if anyone will opt for solid execution over flashy plays it’s Coughlin. He might even start over Wilson some weeks.
34. DWill – Spot starter in fantasy, even if Stewart misses some time. Will a new OC change the dynamic in Carolina? My guess: not much.
35. Tate – Tate may get more carries, but not a ton. Still a decent spot starter.
36. Ryan Williams – This guy still dreams of one day playing in the NFL. I bet he’d be good.
37. JStew – If dude had ankles he’d be top-15.
38. Pierce – He’ll get his carries, just not enough to matter much in fantasy.
39. FJAX – Still good enough to screw up Spiller.
40. Powell – Someone has to get the carries left over from Ivory. (Can we call him Ebony?)
41. Ballard – Second fiddle to a beat-up running back on a passing team means there should be a few weeks – but only a few – where you might start him if you’re desperate.
42. Ingram – Because stopping at 41 would be weird.

Sleeper
Knowshon Moreno – If you look at why I’m not so high on Ball, you’ll realize Moreno may emerge as the guy Peyton wants lined up with him.

 

[Barilko]

wow I don't agree with all the calls of course who will

but the analogies are great nice Job Wil
i should come back with a little more feedback
but i really just needed to commend the work..

 

[TKOSpikes]

Wow! Those are some gutsy calls Mr. White and I love it! Other than the two Tier III's, this could be gold! Just wish you had Spiller up with T-Rich and the boys...not seeing your justification there, even as a Bills fan and probably the biggest Fred Jackson fan on these boards. So safe to say, I hope you're wrong there, otherwise, great stuff. You're even higher on Le'Veon than I am!

 

[Scapegoat]

Tier I
1. Charles - Smith and Reid both improve the offense, and Charles should benefit greatly, barely edging to the top of the list.
2. Foster - Did Foster tail off towards the end of the season? Yep… but I suspect Foster will do what’s necessary to stay in form (maybe mixing in some salmon or something). I don’t see him climbing here; I just see him treading water and AP dropping a shade.
3. AP – A close third; it’s reasonable to expect a small dip after a career year.
4. Rice – Some move him down with the loss of Pitta and Boldin; I move him up. They’ll run him into the ground this year and shovel lots of short passes his way, because they don’t really have a lot of other options.

Tier II
5. Martin – The Hamster’s not the stud some are looking for, and he ain’t posting another 52-pt game this year. See him instead as a solid player who will give you something good almost every week, and sometimes something great. He can be a key piece, but he’s not the dominant fantasy force some are expecting.
6. Lynch – Lynch had crazy production on limited touches in the second half last year. In the last five games he only had 20 carries once, but had a crazy 6.4 YPC and a bunch of TDs. I expect the touches to stay down, and it’s hard to keep up insane YPC like that, which is why he drops a little, but the TDs should still be there, which is why he doesn’t drop far.
7. McCoy – Difficult to gauge the Eagles with all their unknowns, but it’s hard to find a scenario where they won’t lean heavily on McCoy, and he has the talent to make it pay off.
8. Forte – Trestman should find all kinds of ways to use Forte (who has all kinds of skills).
9. TRich – Plenty of touches, but a weak O and a lot of punishment keep him out of the top tier.

Tier III
10. Le'Veon Bell – This is a quantity pick, as I think he’ll be the bell cow (pffff) - an every-down back who can reliably gain yards, pass-protect, and catch, even if he doesn’t have breakaway speed. Obviously this is a high ranking for him, so maybe you can wait a little, but don’t wait too long.
11. McFadden – This is where super-stud’s projection comes out for me for 13 games, so on a per-game basis you have to put him higher. He’s back to the blocking scheme that suits him, but I’ll never project him for 16 games until he plays, I dunno… 14… some day….
12. Reggie Bush – Great opportunity in Detroit for a superior pass-catching back who can also run and is a solid red-zone weapon.
13. CJ1K – Time to appreciate him for what he is: a guy who will reliably get you 1400 total yards and a handful of TDs. And the potential is still there for plenty more.
14. Morris – Helu is back and Morris doesn’t catch very well. As solid as Morris is, he’s no Terrell Davis, and Shanahan is still Shanahan. Beware of a drop in playing time through no fault of his own.
16. SJAX – Looks great on paper, but it’s easy for me to imagine him missing a couple of games, or playing limited, and ending up with under 1000 rushing yards, 400 passing yards, and a half dozen TDs. Not bad, but probably not what some people are expecting.
15. MJD – The Jags will run him into the ground (however far that is) and he’ll take it as an opportunity to show he still has it in a contract year. How much of the season that will actually work out for is a mystery.
17. DeMarco Murray – See McFadden; and Randle could threaten his carries.
18. C.J. Spiller – You probably won’t see him this low anywhere else. No knock on Spiller; I just think FJAX impacts his carries more than people expect, the Bills may have actually downgraded at QB, and Spiller will throw up at about 22 touches.
19. Ridley – The Pats’ O won’t be what it was, so Ridley won’t have the same opportunities. Couple that with an emerging Vereen and I see Ridley slipping a little.
20. Gio Bernard – 2013’s Doug Martin (lite). He doesn’t come in with the cachet Martin had, and BJGE is better all-around than Blount, but he’s the future in Cincinnati and will get his chances on an otherwise very good O. He’s another guy you can grab late in the hopes I’m not a total idiot.
21. Lamar Miller – Decent talent in a good situation. The Dolphins will give him lots of chances to do his thing; he just has to do it consistently.

Tier III
22. David Wilson – Giants may have one of the best rushing attacks in football this year. 55% of that isn’t so exciting, though. Brown cuts in deep.
23. Montee Ball – Like the player, don’t like the situation. In Denver it’s all about protecting Peyton and being able to adjust to audibles to stay on the field, and Ball has stiff competition in those areas even if he’s the best RB in every other respect. That may cost him enough playing time to limit his fantasy success.
24. Frank Gore – Another guy I have way down. He could prove me wrong, but I just can’t believe he has another fully productive season in him.
25. Mendenhall – At this point guys make the list somehow just because they’re starters. If Ryan Williams could pick his navel without breaking his finger you should worry, but for now Mendy’s the guy – a very decent back on a very suspect offense.
26. Sproles – The spork of the NFL. Top-quality spork, too.
27. Ivory – Seems the Jets’ master plan is to get Ivory 15 touches a game. Maybe if his name was Chris Granite they’d let him play more.
28. Lacy – You might think the main things a GB running back has to do are keep Rodgers upright and keep defenses honest. And you’d probably be right. So there’s not much reason to throw a rookie out there unless he’s better than the other FOUR guys you’re looking at. Okay, soon it will be only the other three guys when rosters are cut down … but DuJuan Harris earned some coach love late last year and Starks and Green are turning it up a notch, who knows what Franklin will bring, and the Packers don’t live by the run anyway.
29. Zac Stacy – Somebody has to get the most carries in St. Louis. I suspect Stacy eventually gets the nod.
30. Bradshaw – Take a flier; maybe he’ll be healthy enough to start some games for you. He’s tough and good.
31. Mathews – I just… can’t… deal with this guy any more.
32. Vereen – Moves up with the role he’ll almost certainly be asked to play in NE this year.

Tier IV
33. Andre Brown – The Giants coaches love this guy. And if anyone will opt for solid execution over flashy plays it’s Coughlin. He might even start over Wilson some weeks.
34. DWill – Spot starter in fantasy, even if Stewart misses some time. Will a new OC change the dynamic in Carolina? My guess: not much.
35. Tate – Tate may get more carries, but not a ton. Still a decent spot starter.
36. Ryan Williams – This guy still dreams of one day playing in the NFL. I bet he’d be good.
37. JStew – If dude had ankles he’d be top-15.
38. Pierce – He’ll get his carries, just not enough to matter much in fantasy.
39. FJAX – Still good enough to screw up Spiller.
40. Powell – Someone has to get the carries left over from Ivory. (Can we call him Ebony?)
41. Ballard – Second fiddle to a beat-up running back on a passing team means there should be a few weeks – but only a few – where you might start him if you’re desperate.
42. Ingram – Because stopping at 41 would be weird.

Sleeper
Knowshon Moreno – If you look at why I’m not so high on Ball, you’ll realize Moreno may emerge as the guy Peyton wants lined up with him.

Another quality Wilwhite production.

 

[wilwhite]

Whoa, everybody, settle down. One at a time.

(Thanks, TKO/Barilko/Scape.)

My sleeper pick looked awesome yesterday. Did you see him on the bench, getting zero touches and quietly watching his stock rise? (It's pre-season, but I'll take what I can get.)

 

[TKOSpikes]

Way more nails on the head than way offs, so far... just combing through some threads and thought I'd give you props... especially that last line, and probably the only time I've seen Spiller outside the top 10 in any preseason rankings.

 

[wilwhite]

Thanks, TKO!