wilwhite's RB rankings - 2014

[wilwhite]

1. Ball - Expecting a slightly less explosive Broncos offense, but Ball is better than Knowshon and now Peyton trusts him. Expect 50+ receptions, every-down work, and the Broncos to use him heavily at the goal line.
2. Charles - Just stay healthy, Jamaal.
3. Forte - See Charles.
4. McCoy - Sproles matters... just enough to let other guys edge past Shady.
5. AP - The Vikes are talking about changing the way they use AP (more pass-catching)... that just seems misguided.
6. Lacy - I have him in a virtual dead heat with AP and McCoy... maybe the tie-breaker is that Starks can reliably do mop-up duty in blowouts.
7. Stacy - Good enough, and reliable enough, on a stable team.
8. DeMarco - Dallas will have a ton of offense; but DeMarco ain't the most consistent guy in the world.
9. Martin - Undisputed lead dog now, but on a team with questions on O.
10. Lynch - That was a lot of work, Skittleboy... and you got your re-jiggered contract... and I think sometimes you don't give a crap.
11. Bernard - I don't quite believe the Bengals are all-in on this guy for every situation, but top-12 is still pretty good.
12. Reggie - Might be even higher if I didn't think he'll miss a couple of games.
13. CJ2K - Hidden inside that explosive 2000-yard rusher was the most reliable 1000-yard rusher in the league.
14. Joique - More durable than Reggie, better in short yardage, and a secretly outstanding receiver. Steal of the universe in PPR leagues.
15. Vareen - The Hoodie works in mysterious ways, which keeps every other Pats RB off my list, but Vareen should get his regardless.
16. Spiller - Maybe he is what he is.
17. Morris - I think his first year was skewed by an oversized focus on RGIII that opened things up, last year was closer to his real value, and Helu might even mess that up.
18. Gerhart - This just strikes me as a system-inflated backup going to a place where there isn't even a system. He'll get touches, and the guys behind him don't look like feature backs, and that gets him up this high, but that's about as much as I can see.
19. Foster - I think dude will move to a Buddhist monastery mid-season. He's waking up to the fact there's more to the universe than football, and he already has all the money a man really needs. Which is cool, but fantasy anathema. Not to mention that his soft tissue is brittle and he doesn't get enough protein. Love the guy. Godspeed, Arian.
20. Ellington - They don't want to run him between the tackles, which kinda limits him.
21. Tate - An above-average back with below-average durability, with above-average opportunity on a below-average offense. So... average.
22. Gore - Prove me wrong again, Frank. One of these years I'll be right. (But the fact is Carlos Hyde looks better than any of the guys yo've had behind you in the past, and you're one year older.)
23. LeVeon - Does he have the same opportunity he had last year? NO! He's not really all that (3.5 ypc? - yuck; what he offers is versatility), and the Steelers gave themselves a way to pound opponents with a blunt instrument.
24. McFadden - Younger and better these days than MJD, which will matter eventually, but essentially they kill each other fantasy-wise.
25. Sankey - Meh. Shonn Greene might actually be the better fantasy back. Sankey's here instead based on upside.
26. Ray Rice - Wasn't very good last year, will miss a couple of games, and has his distractions. Still the only feature back on the team, but looks like his days are prematurely numbered.
27. Frenchie - Not that great, but will get used a lot.
28. Bradshaw - A much, much better football player than TRich, but the duct tape and rivets holding him together won't last a full season.
29. D Will - Underused.
30. SJAX - Dude had by far the worst rushing year of his career, has 3000 touches, and was never all that healthy. And Gonzo retiring doesn't help.
31. Moreno - Remember how everything was teed up for Miller last year? And remember that he was bad? Moreno won't repeat last year, and he's not that great, but he executes, this is a passing team, and Moreno will get into shape enough to be the guy.
32. T Rich - He's not really that bad. It's just that he's not really that good either.
33. Jennings - Jennings was atrocious in six games as a starter in Jville a mere two years ago. And though Coughlin isn't high on rookies, Williams looks like a legit contributor. And don't forget about Hillis, who actually has a more productive history than Jennings and seems to have his head screwed back on.
34. MJD - Hurt a lot, had a terrible season last year, and has to share with McFadden.
35. FJAX - Just gotta put this guy on the list, but he's getting awfully long in the tooth.
36. Woodhead - The only SD RB here - mostly because Donald Brown should really cut in on Mathews. But the Chargers running game overall should be very effective, and Woodhead's role is special, so he makes the cut.

I had a sleeper last time who wasn't being drafted, so I'll add one this year, too: Lorenzo Taliaferro - since I don't think anybody on the Ravens besides Rice is a feature back, and Rice may be close to done.

 

[Nosferatu]

I love the Ball prediction, I disagree but I like you didn't just follow everyone else's list.

Bell is too low IMO.

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

Should have looked at this list before our draft. Then I wouldn't be stuck in a bad way like I am.

 

[TREFF]

Love it Will..A couple we don't see eye to eye on, but really digging the majority of it.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Good stuff. I think you have DMC pegged right...he looks like he wants it now.

Fred Jackson is my favorite player. Hands down. But I think he might have lost the little burst he had left. He will still get some tough yards and (rarely) run out the clock, so he might end up where you have him. As for my liking of Spiller, it's the HR factor, and I think last year was all about his bum ankle.

 

[Chef99]

So Wil, are you saying to Jennings owners that if they can't get Williams, they should...Head for the Hillis?

 

[SoShady]

Drinking the Ball kool-aid I see. I would rather have Bell than Ball but you seem really down on him. I don't really seeing Donald Brown as being a major threat to Mathews. If he's healthy he should be in the 10-15 range in PPR. By the way who is Frenchie?

 

[TREFF]

Drinking the Ball kool-aid I see. I would rather have Bell than Ball but you seem really down on him. I don't really seeing Donald Brown as being a major threat to Mathews. If he's healthy he should be in the 10-15 range in PPR. By the way who is Frenchie?

You'd rather have a dude starring a 50/50 situation with Blount dead in the face, than a guy in the Manning led offense who is undisputed the lead back?

Oh, and Frenchie is Pierre Thomas

 

[SoShady]

If you think L Bell is going to have a 50/50 split with Blount...

 

[TREFF]

If you think L Bell is going to have a 50/50 split with Blount...

Hey, I know, I didn't even think he'd make the team in NE, last year, yet there he was, better than Ridley.. can easily see him being at least as good as Bell.. possibly better

 

[SteelersPride]

sorry, i think he has his use, but bells 3.5ypc were much better than they looked, and he came on hard at the end of the year, and can block and catch.......plus bell can be a power back as well.....blount will play but not 50/50

 

[wilwhite]

Here's some semi-secret dope (from Football Outsiders):

There's a measurement called "Success Rate" for RBs, and it goes like this:

In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

If I'm a coach, long TDs once a game are nice, but the above is really what I'm looking for.

The #1 guy, hitting on a crazy 60% of his runs was... Danny Woodhead.
The #2 guy, hitting on 54%? Donald Brown (TRich on the same team was 36th at 43%).
Mathews? 49%, for #17.

#3: Blount, at 54%.
#23: LeVeon, at 47%

#4: Montee Ball, at 54%

 

[wilwhite]

Does that mean Blount will play more than Le'Veon? No. But it does mean they have a reliable alternative who probably won't be knocked unconscious on TDs.

 

[SteelersPride]

lol true, i just think you will be a little suprised thats all

 

[averagejoe]

Stats can kill too. No one is tripping over each other to reach for Woodhead or Brown.

Bell represented 32% of all of the Steelers' offense. That 32% is about average compared to other top-notch RB. (Ex: AP was 33% of the Vikes.) That percentage is pretty impressive when you consider that Bell missed 3 games.

Maybe I'm bias because I drafted Bell, but I like the system he's in (run-first philosophy), and consider too that just before the 50/50 misinformation being spread, management called him their "bellcow" back.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I actually think the Steelers are shifting from the once run first philosophy with the no-huddle scheme
That's actually good news for Bell when they spread out the young receivers.

 

[SoShady]

Hey, I know, I didn't even think he'd make the team in NE, last year, yet there he was, better than Ridley.. can easily see him being at least as good as Bell.. possibly better

I wouldn't say better than Ridley. Ridley's issue is he doesn't hold onto the ball. Very few on DLF had faith in Bell coming into last year. All 3 of the top RB's last year were top 15 backs. That was even with Bell missing action. No reason he can't be a top 10 RB this year in the PPR format. Going no huddle will just add even more upside.

 

[The Foot]

CJ2K - Hidden inside that explosive 2000-yard rusher was the most reliable 1000-yard rusher in the league.
Joique - More durable than Reggie, better in short yardage, and a secretly outstanding receiver. Steal of the universe in PPR leagues.

Wilburt this proves it, you are a certified genius. I LOVE Joique soooo much and the fact that you like him too just solidifies it for me.

Does anyone remember what rounds he went in last night in the A and B?

 

[TK21775]

With Ball being #1 RB Wil, I've got the #2 overall pick in a 14 teamer next week; would you take him there?

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

I think people are overrating Blount. Blount is a situational back. He can't pass block. He can't catch. He can really only run the ball. He'll most likely be the second back in Pitt. When he's in the game, opposing teams will know that they steelers are going run heavy. Because of this, bell will be the starter there and get the majority of play time.