Why it should be Kaep, Luck or Peyton for 2012

[deep9er]

Why would it be more QB reliant next year? Is our defense gonna get worse? Is our running game gonna get worse? Is Jim Harbaugh gonna decide to throw it more than 28 times per/gm?

Honestly, I don't see 13-3 next year even if Alex is the QB. We'll probably be as good, but as you said with the harder schedule and people taking aim for us earlier we'll probably end up with a 10-6 or 11-5 record. I don't think we'll win 13 games whether we have Alex or Kap in the lineup.

mainly because you don't normally get a +28 differential. tougher schedule is another factor and then you get to the lesser factors like we can't sneak up on anyone.

don't see us retaining ALL our defensive FA's, and simple reason is they'll seek bigger money.

 

[MHSL82]

Isn't it true that the deadline to sign Smith before he's out on the open market and the deadline for the Colts to pay Manning's bonus are really close together? If we we were interested in signing Manning wouldn't that entail stringing Smith along and not signing him before he goes out in the open market, increasing the chances that we wind up with neither qb?

I don't think Alex is going anywhere unless we get Manning, even if Alex hits the open market. I think Alex will get offers and while I wouldn't bet money that it's more than we're offering, it technically could. But I don't think Alex will leave unless Manning comes because no one is going to offer him 16-20 million per year. The amount of monetary difference would have to be so strong that no one would refuse it for him to leave. In other words, no other teams are the Godfather.

 

[yossarian]

I don't think Alex is going anywhere unless we get Manning, even if Alex hits the open market. I think Alex will get offers and while I wouldn't bet money that it's more than we're offering, it technically could. But I don't think Alex will leave unless Manning comes because no one is going to offer him 16-20 million per year. The amount of monetary difference would have to be so strong that no one would refuse it for him to leave. In other words, no other teams are the Godfather.

I agree, but the deadline to sign Smith before he becomes a free agent is a few days before the Colts deadline to pay Manning's 28 million bonus. I don't think the 49ers would sign both, so if Baalke is not really engaging in discussions before the Manning deadline to see what happens isn't that a clear indication to Smith? I don't know how he would feel if it became clear the 49ers were really waiting on Manning.

 

[deep9er]

I don't think Alex is going anywhere unless we get Manning, even if Alex hits the open market. I think Alex will get offers and while I wouldn't bet money that it's more than we're offering, it technically could. But I don't think Alex will leave unless Manning comes because no one is going to offer him 16-20 million per year. The amount of monetary difference would have to be so strong that no one would refuse it for him to leave. In other words, no other teams are the Godfather.

yeah, unless we go for a top QB, Alex isn't leaving. the initial report of $8-$11M makes sense, they'll negotiate somewhere between. he isn't seeking the biggest contract he can get, so other offers won't get him.

what would make Alex leave isn't money, but disrespect. don't know what number is 'low ball', but say Baalke sticks to that number, Alex will leave because he's disrespected by the 49ers. just throwing this out, if the initial reports are true, this point is moot.

 

[mufasa76]

I agree, but the deadline to sign Smith before he becomes a free agent is a few days before the Colts deadline to pay Manning's 28 million bonus. I don't think the 49ers would sign both, so if Baalke is not really engaging in discussions before the Manning deadline to see what happens isn't that a clear indication to Smith? I don't know how he would feel if it became clear the 49ers were really waiting on Manning.

that would hurt...

 

[mufasa76]

Sign Snooki...

The reason why i say we keep Alex on this team is b'cos he won't brake our bank, he knows the O and i think his teammates like him, heck i am beginning to like him too...
Lets find him a true number 1 wr, sign our defensive free agents and draft wisely and we will win the west again...

Braylon was a bum get an upgrade this time..

 

[MW49ers5]

I apologize in advance for the randomness of this post. At about the third paragraph it became a bit of a stream of conscience. I got very loosely mathematical in the analysis, so anyone interested in that can give it a look. If you don't care that much, you don't have to read it (obviously).

You don't think Manning could have been the difference last week?

I think it's largely a myth that he performs poorly in the playoffs as well. Here's a link to his postseason stats. Are they on the level of his regular season stats? No, but he's also playing against some of the best defenses in the league for a lot of those games.

I also think when calculating the risk/reward of replacing Smith with Manning is the downside. I think you'd be hard pressed to make a solid argument that the ceiling with Alex Smith is as high as the ceiling with Peyton Manning (16 games, neck fully healed).

But what about the floor? I'm not going to project a floor for Smith, but what is the floor with Peyton? Obviously it's that the neck injury flares up and he can't play. So then the question becomes Kaep vs Smith.

Now, in terms of math we could get quite complex here, but that would involve applying arbitrary numbers to what we get out of each of the QBs. To me, the question is are you willing to settle for the drop-off from Smith's best to Kaepernick by going after the upgrade of Smith's best to Manning's?

The immeasurable variable here for us (accepting that we can apply relative numbers to Manning, Smith and Kaepernick's potential performances) is the odds of Manning's neck flaring up. There would have to be a point where anyone would say "Manning is too great of an injury risk. We're better of with Smith." That point for each of us would change though (is it 50% Manning stays healthy that you risk it? 75%? 25%?)

Frankly, I don't know what the number would be for me. Probably in the 50-65% range.

I feel the risk greatly outweighs the reward if we get to 75%.

We could, in theory, apply numbers to each QB. Let Manning's ceiling (best possible outcome for us) = 10/10. If Manning is a 10, what is Smith's ceiling? 6 or 7? I'll grant benefit of the doubt and say 7. What's his floor? I think Smith is what he is at this point. Let's put his floor at a 5 (again, relative to Peyton's ceiling). Now, the question becomes what do we expect from Kaepernick? I would say his ceiling would be a 6 or 7 as well (but a different 7. More turnovers, but more "big, explosive" plays as well). What's Kaepernick's floor? I would say a 4. Another factor I didn't mention above is Manning's floor without injury. I would say Manning's worst if he plays the whole season is better than Smith's best, so I would put it at an 8.

So, we have the option between hitting between a 5 and a 7 (Smith) or a 4 and a 10 (Kaep to Manning).

So how much of a gambler are you? Again, as I mentioned above, the faith you have in Manning's neck is a key factor for anyone here.

This is a great post and it illuminates the complexities of trying to figure out what is the best course of action to take with regard to Peyton Manning. If I had the time this might be fun to bat around for a bit.

One thing I would do is try to establish a base upon which all other assumptions can be integrated. I would start with some 'knowns' such as a player profile, recent statistical performance and a reasonable assumption of future performance/production and build from there.

Here is a [very] rough draft of what that might look like.

Profiles

Manning:
He is in his declining years as a QB and is coming off major neck surgery which forced him to miss an entire season. Even if 100% healed physically, what impact will the injury and subsequent healing have on his range of motion? What impact will missing an entire season have on his playing this year; and more importantly, what impact on his psyche will the risk of re-injury have on his performance

Smith:
He is either at his peak or in a period of ascendancy which arguably began in mid October 2010 and he is, as far as we know, 100% healthy.

If we discard the possibility of either QB suffering a season ending injury and look at just a performance/production & outcome comparison then we need only to derive some reasonable expectation of future performance & outcomes based on relevant recent performance and current player profile.

As an example here is what Manning's stat line would look like in 2012 based on his past three seasons and a 15% reduction in performance and outcome.

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
.10.5.……5.5……….344.…..511.….3741.…26.……..18

If we are to agree that Smith is at or ascending to his peak then we can use his 2011 performance & outcome stat line as the basis for this comparison, which, of course, looks like this:

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
..13...…….3.………..273.…..445.….3144.…17.……..5

And finally, if we extrapolate Smith's stat line to equal the same number of attempts as Manning, his 2012 performance would equal the following:

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
..13.……...3.……….313.…...511.…3604.….20.…….6

From here the debate broadens to include perhaps more profile information, the possibility of injury, money, probability tweaking, opportunity cost, etc, etc, etc…

For me, under some scenarios I would take Manning, while under other scenarios I would reject him.

 

[imac_21]

I agree, but the deadline to sign Smith before he becomes a free agent is a few days before the Colts deadline to pay Manning's 28 million bonus. I don't think the 49ers would sign both, so if Baalke is not really engaging in discussions before the Manning deadline to see what happens isn't that a clear indication to Smith? I don't know how he would feel if it became clear the 49ers were really waiting on Manning.

The deadline to release Manning is March 8th. The new league year begins March 13. I'm not aware of any moratorium in that period where teams cannot re-sign their own players. The deadline, the best of my understanding, to sign Smith before he hits the open market is March 13 - 5 days after Manning's fate will be known.

 

[imac_21]

This is a great post and it illuminates the complexities of trying to figure out what is the best course of action to take with regard to Peyton Manning. If I had the time this might be fun to bat around for a bit.

One thing I would do is try to establish a base upon which all other assumptions can be integrated. I would start with some 'knowns' such as a player profile, recent statistical performance and a reasonable assumption of future performance/production and build from there.

Here is a [very] rough draft of what that might look like.

Profiles

Manning:
He is in his declining years as a QB and is coming off major neck surgery which forced him to miss an entire season. Even if 100% healed physically, what impact will the injury and subsequent healing have on his range of motion? What impact will missing an entire season have on his playing this year; and more importantly, what impact on his psyche will the risk of re-injury have on his performance

Smith:
He is either at his peak or in a period of ascendancy which arguably began in mid October 2010 and he is, as far as we know, 100% healthy.

If we discard the possibility of either QB suffering a season ending injury and look at just a performance/production & outcome comparison then we need only to derive some reasonable expectation of future performance & outcomes based on relevant recent performance and current player profile.

As an example here is what Manning's stat line would look like in 2012 based on his past three seasons and a 15% reduction in performance and outcome.

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
.10.5.……5.5……….344.…..511.….3741.…26.……..18

If we are to agree that Smith is at or ascending to his peak then we can use his 2011 performance & outcome stat line as the basis for this comparison, which, of course, looks like this:

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
..13...…….3.………..273.…..445.….3144.…17.……..5

And finally, if we extrapolate Smith's stat line to equal the same number of attempts as Manning, his 2012 performance would equal the following:

Wins…..Losses…..Comp…..Att…..Yds…..TD's…..Ints
..13.……...3.……….313.…...511.…3604.….20.…….6

From here the debate broadens to include perhaps more profile information, the possibility of injury, money, probability tweaking, opportunity cost, etc, etc, etc…

For me, under some scenarios I would take Manning, while under other scenarios I would reject him.

Thanks. It was something I just started thinking of on the fly.

I think other factors have to be considered in statistical comparison. Namely the type of offense each ran. Manning clearly had the higher degree of difficulty in the throws he was asked to make (and I will assume in the offense that they ran). Smith however, has a familiarity with our system. We also cannot precisely account for the surrounding talent (how would Smith do with the Indy skill players and vice versa).

A true statistical analysis and projection is possible, but I don't have a subscription to any of the sites that have the advanced stats (PFF, FO and presumably others).

On the face of it, if signing Peyton Manning over Alex Smith had a net cost of 7.5M (averaging the 15-20 number that has been tossed around and accounting for the 10M that has been mentioned for Alex) I would sign Peyton 10 times out of 10 ASSUMING that he is medically cleared and the doctors don't have concerns about his neck.

 

[MW49ers5]

Thanks. It was something I just started thinking of on the fly.

I think other factors have to be considered in statistical comparison. Namely the type of offense each ran. Manning clearly had the higher degree of difficulty in the throws he was asked to make (and I will assume in the offense that they ran). Smith however, has a familiarity with our system. We also cannot precisely account for the surrounding talent (how would Smith do with the Indy skill players and vice versa).

A true statistical analysis and projection is possible, but I don't have a subscription to any of the sites that have the advanced stats (PFF, FO and presumably others).

On the face of it, if signing Peyton Manning over Alex Smith had a net cost of 7.5M (averaging the 15-20 number that has been tossed around and accounting for the 10M that has been mentioned for Alex) I would sign Peyton 10 times out of 10 ASSUMING that he is medically cleared and the doctors don't have concerns about his neck.

You're hittin' on all cylinders...the additional comparisons you mention here are just the tip of the iceberg. They can get quite deep, probably to the point of analysis paralysis and you already added a profile point, offense familiarity. Here's another - Dome vs. outdoor performance...This could become seriously interesting.

It would be great to have or create an equation which we could plug in all these variables and have it spit out the results with say a 90-95% probability of accuracy.

If the $7.5M is a measure of your confidence then I am less confident than yourself. How much less confident depends on the opportunity cost. In other words, I would assume we are going to have to forego signing certain players to give Smith his $10M. Thus I would assume we would have to forego signing even more players to give Manning $17.5M.

Therefore, for me it becomes not just a Manning for Smith deal it becomes a Smith minus these players for $10M vs. Manning minus these players for $17.5M...And suddenly we are into a whole other analysis.

 

[imac_21]

You're hittin' on all cylinders...the additional comparisons you mention here are just the tip of the iceberg. They can get quite deep, probably to the point of analysis paralysis and you already added a profile point, offense familiarity. Here's another - Dome vs. outdoor performance...This could become seriously interesting.

It would be great to have or create an equation which we could plug in all these variables and have it spit out the results with say a 90-95% probability of accuracy.

If the $7.5M is a measure of your confidence then I am less confident than yourself. How much less confident depends on the opportunity cost. In other words, I would assume we are going to have to forego signing certain players to give Smith his $10M. Thus I would assume we would have to forego signing even more players to give Manning $17.5M.

Therefore, for me it becomes not just a Manning for Smith deal it becomes a Smith minus these players for $10M vs. Manning minus these players for $17.5M...And suddenly we are into a whole other analysis.

I have to take off, but I wanted to just comment on the financials and the idea of losing other players.

That would all be in the structure of the contract. We could pay Manning a 4 year 70M deal (17.5 per) that has money in the back end that lowers his cap hit for the first year to allow us to maintain cap room. Of course, we could do the same for Smith on a 4 year 40M deal and save even more cap room. The CBA being a 10 year deal allows for security in manipulating the cap because you can be confident that it will grow each year, so if we were to create a contract with Peyton that had a 10M cap hit in year 1 and a 23 year cap hit in year 4, the year 4 one may be more palatable relative to the cap and other contract situations we could be facing.

Contract structure will be an important aspect of all contracts we sign this offseason.

I've also heard that teams can "carry" cap space over in the first two years of the CBA. I'm not sure what this means, but the implication seems to be that we can use cap space retro-actively for the first two years. I'm open to other interpretations.

 

[yossarian]

The deadline to release Manning is March 8th. The new league year begins March 13. I'm not aware of any moratorium in that period where teams cannot re-sign their own players. The deadline, the best of my understanding, to sign Smith before he hits the open market is March 13 - 5 days after Manning's fate will be known.

You're right, I got the dates transposed. I still think if the 49ers are sitting around without much discussions until March 8th when they find out will be a little problematic.

 

[imac_21]

You're right, I got the dates transposed. I still think if the 49ers are sitting around without much discussions until March 8th when they find out will be a little problematic.

They don't have to sit there without much discussion until March 8. The Niners and Smith can do all kinds of negotiating and if Manning gets released, we can pursue him (as a vested vet, he not only doesn't he have to clear waivers, he can sign before March 13 with another team). If Manning doesn't work out, we can still pursue Smith.

Somehow I don't think Alex Smith would be offended if the Niners looked into Peyton Manning.

 

[MHSL82]

They don't have to sit there without much discussion until March 8. The Niners and Smith can do all kinds of negotiating and if Manning gets released, we can pursue him (as a vested vet, he not only doesn't he have to clear waivers, he can sign before March 13 with another team). If Manning doesn't work out, we can still pursue Smith.

Somehow I don't think Alex Smith would be offended if the Niners looked into Peyton Manning.

He might not get offended, but that is the one situation that I would see him leave. When he didn't leave for greener pastures, it was clear he wanted to start or fight to start, unlike Leinart (which I liked because he went to my alma mater).

 

[threelittleturds]

I still can't get over the irony of talking about Jim Harbaugh signing Peyton Manning to launch this team to a Super Bowl... since the Colts cut Harbaugh to draft Manning... and Manning got cut so they could sign Luck... who was coached by Harbaugh.

What a crazy 6 degrees of separation...

 

[ViperVisor]

I live in Indy and am a 49ers fan while my Brother in with the Colts.

Ground Zero at my house.

 

[Southern9er]

There's a piece that is missing here and only the people who mention re-signing Smith probably get it.

What? Smith won't be better next year? Smith has peaked? For the love of Walsh, take a fricking look at what Harbaugh, a rookie coach, did with Smith, a "damaged goods" QB in a shortened season. Smith's improvement was utterly amazing and not even the most staunch Smith supporter could have predicted his OVERALL performance. He will NOT be a stagnant player. My personal opinion has been that Smith picked up where he left off with Norv Turner in the 2006 season. What did Smith gain the most of this year that will give him tremendous room to further develop next year?

CONFIDENCE.

Off season priority has to be re-signing the players that made this year possible, especially on D. Smith wont be so greedy as to recognize that he needs more time in SF to prove himself as a viable FA, he is still dependent on Harbaugh for his football future. His future outside of SF is not that bright, even with his tremendous improvement. Now he needs CONSISTENCY. With the addition of a true #1 WR and overall improvement to that group and our passing game, Smith will make another quantum leap next season...given the chance.

In the post season he was ranked #4 in passer rating with only two fewer attempts than Brady. In the regular season he was #11...statistically speaking if we pass 25% more, which puts us slightly over average in pass attempts for the top 10 QBs, his numbers are right there with all the top 10 QBs except in TDs, but his TD/INT ratio is still tremendous.

He has not reached his potential and given another season with Harbaugh he will become that QB need to get real offensive production, not elite, but very good.

 

[MHSL82]

I still can't get over the irony of talking about Jim Harbaugh signing Peyton Manning to launch this team to a Super Bowl... since the Colts cut Harbaugh to draft Manning... and Manning got cut so they could sign Luck... who was coached by Harbaugh.

What a crazy 6 degrees of separation...

This is a little more removed, but Jim's brother is coaching in the city Indianapolis formerly played. So maybe it's 12 degrees of separation?

 

[MHSL82]

There's a piece that is missing here and only the people who mention re-signing Smith probably get it.

What? Smith won't be better next year? Smith has peaked? For the love of Walsh, take a fricking look at what Harbaugh, a rookie coach, did with Smith, a "damaged goods" QB in a shortened season. Smith's improvement was utterly amazing and not even the most staunch Smith supporter could have predicted his OVERALL performance. He will NOT be a stagnant player. My personal opinion has been that Smith picked up where he left off with Norv Turner in the 2006 season. What did Smith gain the most of this year that will give him tremendous room to further develop next year?

CONFIDENCE.

Off season priority has to be re-signing the players that made this year possible, especially on D. Smith wont be so greedy as to recognize that he needs more time in SF to prove himself as a viable FA, he is still dependent on Harbaugh for his football future. His future outside of SF is not that bright, even with his tremendous improvement. Now he needs CONSISTENCY. With the addition of a true #1 WR and overall improvement to that group and our passing game, Smith will make another quantum leap next season...given the chance.

In the post season he was ranked #4 in passer rating with only two fewer attempts than Brady. In the regular season he was #11...statistically speaking if we pass 25% more, which puts us slightly over average in pass attempts for the top 10 QBs, his numbers are right there with all the top 10 QBs except in TDs, but his TD/INT ratio is still tremendous.

He has not reached his potential and given another season with Harbaugh he will become that QB need to get real offensive production, not elite, but very good.

Technically, he was #9 in passer rating (regardless of how people feel about passer rating, just correcting the stat), but great post.

People like to make simplified statements because it's easier, it makes them sleep better at night, feel smart, and all that. It makes them feel like experts in their own right. They crossed one more thing off their list to evaluate, once they can write off a player.

Naturally, they are right very often.

- Sometimes, it's too easy - like in Jamarcus Russell's case. Once he gained so much weight, it seemed apparent he wasn't going to turn it around - not the biggest factor, but that told me he wasn't as committed as say, Alex Smith. Maybe I was late to the party, maybe he was a lost cause before he gained weight?

- Sometimes the players make them right, as in Matt Leinart's case, so that they can never prove their doubter's wrong. Who leaves a team with Skelton, Max Hall, etc. to be a backup for a semi-established ascending player (Schaub)? This was before the Kolb trade.

Sometimes, however, these statements are simply too simplified when you have a few elements working for you. We have a coach who is willing to teach, not watch his QB fail and finding the scapegoat. We have a QB who is willing to learn and work hard, not to dismiss the flaws he has in his game, unlike McNabb with his footwork. Obviously McNabb has more leeway than Smith, but still was not open to suggestion - at least publicly (why did that come out in the public?). We have a team that is peaking, as other players are getting better, and a new offense that we finally have time to install correctly. Here, is where I think making grand statements of ceiling and all that fall short.

Some may claim that the QB has peaked (and they may or may not be right) but just the stats go up based upon improvements around him. But I think confidence, consistency in a good system, trust, and time work in our favor. I feel that the QB, whether it's Alex or Kaep, will greatly improve just from these elements. And improve to the point that if the elements leave us or the QB leaves the team, he'll take some significant part of it with him.

 

[deep9er]

Technically, he was #9 in passer rating (regardless of how people feel about passer rating, just correcting the stat), but great post.

People like to make simplified statements because it's easier, it makes them sleep better at night, feel smart, and all that. It makes them feel like experts in their own right. They crossed one more thing off their list to evaluate, once they can write off a player.

Naturally, they are right very often.

- Sometimes, it's too easy - like in Jamarcus Russell's case. Once he gained so much weight, it seemed apparent he wasn't going to turn it around - not the biggest factor, but that told me he wasn't as committed as say, Alex Smith. Maybe I was late to the party, maybe he was a lost cause before he gained weight?

- Sometimes the players make them right, as in Matt Leinart's case, so that they can never prove their doubter's wrong. Who leaves a team with Skelton, Max Hall, etc. to be a backup for a semi-established ascending player (Schaub)? This was before the Kolb trade.

Sometimes, however, these statements are simply too simplified when you have a few elements working for you. We have a coach who is willing to teach, not watch his QB fail and finding the scapegoat. We have a QB who is willing to learn and work hard, not to dismiss the flaws he has in his game, unlike McNabb with his footwork. Obviously McNabb has more leeway than Smith, but still was not open to suggestion - at least publicly (why did that come out in the public?). We have a team that is peaking, as other players are getting better, and a new offense that we finally have time to install correctly. Here, is where I think making grand statements of ceiling and all that fall short.

Some may claim that the QB has peaked (and they may or may not be right) but just the stats go up based upon improvements around him. But I think confidence, consistency in a good system, trust, and time work in our favor. I feel that the QB, whether it's Alex or Kaep, will greatly improve just from these elements. And improve to the point that if the elements leave us or the QB leaves the team, he'll take some significant part of it with him.

agree, the fact that the overall unit will be improved, stats should improve all around. so we can expect Alex Smith will have more passing yards next season. his INT number was pretty small and likely not duplicated, cause we'll ask him to "open it up" and INT's "comes with the territory".

admittedly, i'm one who feels his ceiling isn't much higher, but agree with the continuity and chemistry. i'll take play-offs and near SB for the next two years, and not gamble by changing QB's.