Why it should be Kaep, Luck or Peyton for 2012

[Southern9er]

Technically, he was #9 in passer rating (regardless of how people feel about passer rating, just correcting the stat), but great post.

People like to make simplified statements because it's easier, it makes them sleep better at night, feel smart, and all that. It makes them feel like experts in their own right. They crossed one more thing off their list to evaluate, once they can write off a player.

Naturally, they are right very often.

- Sometimes, it's too easy - like in Jamarcus Russell's case. Once he gained so much weight, it seemed apparent he wasn't going to turn it around - not the biggest factor, but that told me he wasn't as committed as say, Alex Smith. Maybe I was late to the party, maybe he was a lost cause before he gained weight?

- Sometimes the players make them right, as in Matt Leinart's case, so that they can never prove their doubter's wrong. Who leaves a team with Skelton, Max Hall, etc. to be a backup for a semi-established ascending player (Schaub)? This was before the Kolb trade.

Sometimes, however, these statements are simply too simplified when you have a few elements working for you. We have a coach who is willing to teach, not watch his QB fail and finding the scapegoat. We have a QB who is willing to learn and work hard, not to dismiss the flaws he has in his game, unlike McNabb with his footwork. Obviously McNabb has more leeway than Smith, but still was not open to suggestion - at least publicly (why did that come out in the public?). We have a team that is peaking, as other players are getting better, and a new offense that we finally have time to install correctly. Here, is where I think making grand statements of ceiling and all that fall short.

Some may claim that the QB has peaked (and they may or may not be right) but just the stats go up based upon improvements around him. But I think confidence, consistency in a good system, trust, and time work in our favor. I feel that the QB, whether it's Alex or Kaep, will greatly improve just from these elements. And improve to the point that if the elements leave us or the QB leaves the team, he'll take some significant part of it with him.

Nice to see someone who has the reason to understand this, many posters, even the "smartest" on 9er football don't have the patience and wisdom to take a look at this.

Yeah, was only using QB rating which has its limits; which is why I talked about some production numbers. And I don't know if he's peaked or not ...NO ONE does which is the greater point, but I can certainly understand how fans could think so. His situation requires extreme patience and the ability to see past all the negative situations around him to see if he is that #1 draft choice.

Mentioning the coach, player and their combined desire to work, be open about strengths and limitations, is key as well as the ability to fully install the offense and become familiar with it are very good points.

Personally I think this guy is capable of doing what he did to NOLA consistently and even better...this was only year one of the reclamation project...no offense to Alex, but with Harbaugh he will continue to improve each year.

 

[NinerSickness]

Let me put the Alex thing this way for those who think he's a good QB:

If Alex Smith got the non-exclusive franchise tag would a single team offer him a contract?

Because you know what would happen if... say... Jay Cutler were a FA with the francise tag? He's have GMs banging down his door.

 

[MHSL82]

Let me put the Alex thing this way for those who think he's a good QB:

If Alex Smith got the non-exclusive franchise tag would a single team offer him a contract?

Because you know what would happen if... say... Jay Cutler were a FA with the francise tag? He's have GMs banging down his door.

But we're not talking about that amount of money or how good he is. Is that some revelation that he isn't worthy of franchise tag money? Have you found anyone who is remotely coming close to saying he's worth that? Does not being worth 14-17 million have anything to do with being worth 8-10 or even the 1.3-1.6 that Kaep has being preferrable? I don't think your going to get the argument that he's elite/franchisable. This doesn't make your argument stronger because we're not in that discussion.

I think he's worth what they are reportingly offering him. That's what this whole discussions about. If you're trying to say he's not worth 8-10 because he's not worth 14+ or if you're suggesting Kaep because you're afraid of something higher than 10, that's strange. If that amount is for < a good QB, then great. Nothing to complain about here. We'd all like to pay everyone less, but if that amount is already less than a good QB salary, then we hardly should blame Smith if we are cap-strapped.

If it's more, then the team obviously thinks higher of him than you do. Great. Everyone knows Alex doesn't have much leverage (some, not much) and so if they offer him more than you think is reasonable, they obviously think more of him than you do, and I'd take their assessment over yours. They won't offer him more than they think he's worth because they think he's leaving or wants more money. The only way for a high offer is for high evaluation. That said, I don't think he's going to get a very high salary relatively speaking. In fact, I think he'd sacrifice money either for the team or for longer duration. Heck, even Clyde Carson is saying he should be signed for next year (though for less than 8-10 and I know he wishes Smith was the backup to Kaep). You know Clyde Carson, right?

 

[Southern9er]

Let me put the Alex thing this way for those who think he's a good QB:

If Alex Smith got the non-exclusive franchise tag would a single team offer him a contract?

Because you know what would happen if... say... Jay Cutler were a FA with the francise tag? He's have GMs banging down his door.

That means NOTHING to this discussion. His ability is not evaluated by other teams that might offer him a contract. Smith IS a good QB and his improvement this season cannot be emphasized enough. He doesn't have much value outside of SF because he doesn't have consistency...YET...he will only get better and build his credibility with Harbaugh. Impossible to know if he's "peaked" yet, but I seriously, seriously doubt it...you have to consider his situation, no one can succeed in that.

Bottom line? He is a good developing QB that NEVER got coached properly (save for Norv Turner) till now. Why is it that Smith is so successful with Vernon Davis catching his passes?

 

[NinerSickness]

BUMP!

Here's my wish list if the Niners are smart enough to sign Peyton:

Wayne, Hutch, Tyler Brayton, Rogers, Ginn, and a situationl pass ruser (probably via the draft). Maybe Andre Caldwell if there's room & he's not too expensive, and Manny if he's sign for like a million. I'd also be open to some cheap veteran DL like Tommie Harris, Gerard Warren or Aubrayo Franklin.

Draft: 1) Konz 2) Curry 3-7 BPA.

I think that could all fit in 20 million. I'd be happy as a clam. There'd be a cap bubble in a few years, but I'm fine with that as long as the Niners have this team for a couple. That'd almost guarantee at least 1 SB.







Here's my wish list if the Niners are too stupid to go after Peyton:

Alex walks, so Kaep is the starter. Draft:

1. Trade pick for a 1 next year and a 2 this year
2a: Dwayne Allen
2b. Curry
3-7: BPA

Sign: Carl Nicks, Andre Caldwell, Tyler Brayton, Ginn, Manny (if like a million), Morgan, Tracy Porter (the anti-Peyton signing.

I didn't do one for Luck obviously. That would just be depressing.

 

[threelittleturds]

Hey Sickness, with your wishlist scenario. Do you see Hutch as a LG or RG? I'm pretty sure Hutch and Iupati can play both positions, but with Hutch doing it for so long I keep thinking about how you can't teach an old dog new tricks. At least I'm pretty sure Hutch has only been a LG.

 

[-AC-]

Sorry I didn't read all 5 pages, just replying to the topic title...

The window of oppertunity is pretty good to throw Kaep in as a starter. The defense is good enough to keep us in any game. If we can upgrade the O-line a bit, then it should be a good bet to give Kaep a chance at starting.

It could be a scenario of taking a temporary step back in order to take two or three steps forward...

 

[NinerSickness]

Hey Sickness, with your wishlist scenario. Do you see Hutch as a LG or RG? I'm pretty sure Hutch and Iupati can play both positions, but with Hutch doing it for so long I keep thinking about how you can't teach an old dog new tricks. At least I'm pretty sure Hutch has only been a LG.

My first inclination would be to puy Hutch at RG because I'm 99% sure he has the brains and ability to handle the move, but I'm sure the OL coaches would know what to do and put together an absolutely NASTY OL if he came to SF.

I'd even be open to Hutch at C if he'd be willing to play with a hand on his taint.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Sorry I didn't read all 5 pages, just replying to the topic title...

The window of oppertunity is pretty good to throw Kaep in as a starter. The defense is good enough to keep us in any game. If we can upgrade the O-line a bit, then it should be a good bet to give Kaep a chance at starting.

It could be a scenario of taking a temporary step back in order to take two or three steps forward...

Agreed. I think we have good enough coaching and supporting cast to carry a young QB throw development and rookie mistakes.

 

[Flyingiguana]

with another playmaker on offense we can win next year. we need a qb that can step in now, not an unknown that might never amount to anything.