Who will be the New OC?

[Stymietee]

I disagree regarding your assessment of a limited passing game for 2023. We knew Taylor could win us games but be limited, we KNEW Wentz was going to be a total fail, BUT with Howell, we really really don't know what to expect...which is exciting. He's got an arm, is athletic and cheap!!!

In a passing league, a 2-1 run/pass ratio translates to a limited passing game but let's move on.

There are three ways to look at Howell's body of work thus far;

The positive... 11/19 169 yards and 1 TD with 5 runs totaling 35 yards and 1 TD exciting the masses with what could be a preview of things to come.

The Negative... 57.9 completion percentage, a horribly thrown interception, a QBR of 46.2, and two of his 3 sacks being avoidable.

The Rookie... He was a 5th-round draftee which fairly or unfairly comes with the tag that Day 3 QBs are extreme longshots. There will be necessary growing pains and Washington nor its fanbase has a history or willingness to tolerate these game-losing imperfections. Not knowing what to expect can be exciting, I suppose, but generally, excitement gives rise to expectation, and around these parts expectation more often than not leads to major disappointment. He does have the arm but we know so little of his head. He's athletic and he'll be on the field facing 11 equally athletic or better professional athletes. Finally, he won't cost a lot of money to field, which at this point is the best thing that he actually brings to the team.

If you wish I can post a deeper look at his performance by the numbers.

 

[skinsdad62]

In a passing league, a 2-1 run/pass ratio translates to a limited passing game but let's move on.

There are three ways to look at Howell's body of work thus far;

The positive... 11/19 169 yards and 1 TD with 5 runs totaling 35 yards and 1 TD exciting the masses with what could be a preview of things to come.

The Negative... 57.9 completion percentage, a horribly thrown interception, a QBR of 46.2, and two of his 3 sacks being avoidable.

The Rookie... He was a 5th-round draftee which fairly or unfairly comes with the tag that Day 3 QBs are extreme longshots. There will be necessary growing pains and Washington nor its fanbase has a history or willingness to tolerate these game-losing imperfections. Not knowing what to expect can be exciting, I suppose, but generally, excitement gives rise to expectation, and around these parts expectation more often than not leads to major disappointment. He does have the arm but we know so little of his head. He's athletic and he'll be on the field facing 11 equally athletic or better professional athletes. Finally, he won't cost a lot of money to field, which at this point is the best thing that he actually brings to the team.

If you wish I can post a deeper look at his performance by the numbers.

Look going into an off season of turmoil ( new ownership). And perhaps a lame duck HC and staff so the best I feel we can do is build the team with a good o/line draft and find out about SM. decide what to do with clowney and resign Payne

 

[Skin'EmAll]

In a passing league, a 2-1 run/pass ratio translates to a limited passing game but let's move on.



There are three ways to look at Howell's body of work thus far;



The positive... 11/19 169 yards and 1 TD with 5 runs totaling 35 yards and 1 TD exciting the masses with what could be a preview of things to come.



The Negative... 57.9 completion percentage, a horribly thrown interception, a QBR of 46.2, and two of his 3 sacks being avoidable.



The Rookie... He was a 5th-round draftee which fairly or unfairly comes with the tag that Day 3 QBs are extreme longshots. There will be necessary growing pains and Washington nor its fanbase has a history or willingness to tolerate these game-losing imperfections. Not knowing what to expect can be exciting, I suppose, but generally, excitement gives rise to expectation, and around these parts expectation more often than not leads to major disappointment. He does have the arm but we know so little of his head. He's athletic and he'll be on the field facing 11 equally athletic or better professional athletes. Finally, he won't cost a lot of money to field, which at this point is the best thing that he actually brings to the team.



If you wish I can post a deeper look at his performance by the numbers.



Sorry, everytime i reply on the phone it does this. I have a rebuttal, frankly its not a strong one with the stats you posted, but i have a theory. With a better OC and line play, Rivera won't always have to go with a run heavy game script. Its saying all the right things, making allowances for a slow start as expected with Howell.

In addition, until we see more gameplay, its hard to say which Howell we'll see more of in pre/regular season. The good was good and the bad was BAD. I can't argue against history for late round qbs but perhaps the defense can carry us again. The offense with the exception of qb looks promising with the right coordinator.

Thanks Sty for providing the numbers

 

[j_y19]

I disagree regarding your assessment of a limited passing game for 2023. We knew Taylor could win us games but be limited, we KNEW Wentz was going to be a total fail, BUT with Howell, we really really don't know what to expect...which is exciting. He's got an arm, is athletic and cheap!!!

That’s the beauty of it. Give the guy a shot to win the job. Bring in whatever competition you want, the more the merrier. just don’t give up those valuable high draft choices in doing so.

 

[j_y19]

In a passing league, a 2-1 run/pass ratio translates to a limited passing game but let's move on.

There are three ways to look at Howell's body of work thus far;

The positive... 11/19 169 yards and 1 TD with 5 runs totaling 35 yards and 1 TD exciting the masses with what could be a preview of things to come.

The Negative... 57.9 completion percentage, a horribly thrown interception, a QBR of 46.2, and two of his 3 sacks being avoidable.

The Rookie... He was a 5th-round draftee which fairly or unfairly comes with the tag that Day 3 QBs are extreme longshots. There will be necessary growing pains and Washington nor its fanbase has a history or willingness to tolerate these game-losing imperfections. Not knowing what to expect can be exciting, I suppose, but generally, excitement gives rise to expectation, and around these parts expectation more often than not leads to major disappointment. He does have the arm but we know so little of his head. He's athletic and he'll be on the field facing 11 equally athletic or better professional athletes. Finally, he won't cost a lot of money to field, which at this point is the best thing that he actually brings to the team.

If you wish I can post a deeper look at his performance by the numbers.

Sty, why are you so stuck on his draft position? Is it because some pundit somewhere st one time said he could be a 1st rd pick, but wasn’t? Once your in the NFL, draft position means nothing.

 

[Stymietee]

Sty, why are you so stuck on his draft position? Is it because some pundit somewhere st one time said he could be a 1st rd pick, but wasn’t? Once your in the NFL, draft position means nothing.

Historical stats back me up on it. I'm not stuck on anything but fact, no emotion, no excuses, none of that fan (fanatic) stuff.
Btw: If you don't believe that draft position means anything once you're in the NFL, that's fine, but I'll bet that if you scour the league and pick any current team with a QB that made them relevant, few would show that QB coming into the league in the later rounds (3-7).

 

[Stymietee]

Sty, why are you so stuck on his draft position? Is it because some pundit somewhere st one time said he could be a 1st rd pick, but wasn’t? Once your in the NFL, draft position means nothing.

One other thing, despite all pundits and what they have to say about Howell, I had him as a 4th, perhaps 5th round QB when he was at his best during his Carolina days. I posted it then and stand by it today.
I'm not saying that he could prove to be another exception to those historical stats, he absolutely can but I caution against being over zealous and too wary over an ok one game performance simply because he's essentially all that they have right now. Apologies to Jake Fromme (State Farm)

 

[Sportster 72]

Tom Brady - round 6

 

[j_y19]

Historical stats back me up on it. I'm not stuck on anything but fact, no emotion, no excuses, none of that fan (fanatic) stuff.
Btw: If you don't believe that draft position means anything once you're in the NFL, that's fine, but I'll bet that if you scour the league and pick any current team with a QB that made them relevant, few would show that QB coming into the league in the later rounds (3-7).

I actuallly agree with all of this. No doubt, any qb taken in later rounds becomes more of a long shot. Im more confused in your previous positions that any competition Howell should have needs to be commensurate with his past projected draft position. Not sure I understand. again, I have no problem bringing in competition. It’s not about who you bring in that Im concerned with, but how you bring them in. If one of the top guys falls to us at 16, then by all means, take him (Not going to happen). Just don’t give up additional picks to move up and, more importantly, don’t give up top picks to trade for anyone Not named mahomes or hurts, or barrow, or Wilson.

 

[Sportster 72]

Meanwhile back at the ranch I have pointed out numerous times Washington's 1st round QB picks have amounted to nothing.

 

[j_y19]

Meanwhile back at the ranch I have pointed out numerous times Washington's 1st round QB picks have amounted to nothing.

Many first round picks have been big misses. Most college QBs are not ready for the NFL and fail to Make the transition. Lets face it. The days of first round QBs being groomed on the bench rarely happens anymore. The usually go to the worst teams and have to play. I’d be curious what the success rate is for QB taken in the first round. I’d measure success as being with the same team, as a starter, through your rookie contract. I’d wager its less than 50% in the last decade.

 

[j_y19]

Many first round picks have been big misses. Most college QBs are not ready for the NFL and fail to Make the transition. Lets face it. The days of first round QBs being groomed on the bench rarely happens anymore. The usually go to the worst teams and have to play. I’d be curious what the success rate is for QB taken in the first round. I’d measure success as being with the same team, as a starter, through your rookie contract. I’d wager its less than 50% in the last decade.

So I just did a quick analysis, the failure rate as I defined above for 1st round QBs over the last 10 years is about 60%. There have been 39, with 24 washing out before their rookie deals are up with their drafted teams.

 

[kbso83432]

This is the only HC interview Bieniemy went on.

 

[deanpet21]

This is the only HC interview Bieniemy went on.

View attachment 321138

so it's us vs the Ravens for OC EB?

 

[Sportster 72]

So I just did a quick analysis, the failure rate as I defined above for 1st round QBs over the last 10 years is about 60%. There have been 39, with 24 washing out before their rookie deals are up with their drafted teams.

I just used a small sample size, the Redskins.

Of course many top QBs are first round picks but folks need to do the total research which you did above. It clearly says drafting a QB in the 1st round is no guarantee.

 

[Stymietee]

I actuallly agree with all of this. No doubt, any qb taken in later rounds becomes more of a long shot. Im more confused in your previous positions that any competition Howell should have needs to be commensurate with his past projected draft position. Not sure I understand. again, I have no problem bringing in competition. It’s not about who you bring in that Im concerned with, but how you bring them in. If one of the top guys falls to us at 16, then by all means, take him (Not going to happen). Just don’t give up additional picks to move up and, more importantly, don’t give up top picks to trade for anyone Not named mahomes or hurts, or barrow, or Wilson.

First, let's look at the long list of first-round QBs drafted by this team since 1999 that seems to have frightened some so much. (The Snyder era 1999 to present totaling 23 years)

1. 2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane University. (Round 1 pick 32)
2. 2005 Jason Campbell Auburn University (Round 1 pick 25)
3. 2012 Robert Griffin III Baylor University (Round 1 pick 2)
4. 2019 Dwayne Haskins Ohio State University (Round 1 pick 15)

THAT"S IT 4 in 23 years!

Now let's look at the number of different starting Lower round QBs this team has fielded during that same time.

1. 1999 Brad Johnson (Round 9 pick 227 Vikings)
2. 2001 Tony Banks (Round 2 pick 42 Rams)
3. 2002 Shane Matthews (Undrafted)
4. 2002 Danny Wuerffel (Round 4 Pick 99 Saints)
5. 2003 Tim Hasselbeck (Undrafted)
6. 2005 Mark Brunell (Round 5 pick 118 Packers)
7. 2007 Todd Collins (Round 2 pick 45 Bills)
8. 2011 John Beck (Round 2 pick 40 Dolphins)
9. 2012 Kirk Cousins (Round 4 pick 102 Washington)
10. 2018 Josh Johnson (Round 5 pick 160 Tampa Bay)
11. 2018 Colt McCoy (Round 3 pick 85 Browns)
12. 2019 Case Keenum (Undrafted)
13. 2020 Kyle Allen (Undrafted)
14. 2021 Taylor Heinicke (Undrafted)
15. 2021 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Round 7 pick 250 Rams)
16. 2021 Garrett Gilbert (Round 6 pick 214 Rams)
17. 2022 Sam Howell (Round 5 pick 144 Washington)

THAT"S 17 in 23 years!

The first thing that you might notice is the 4 first-round QBs plus Cousins and Howell, totaling 6, are the ONLY QBs that this franchise actually drafted in 23 years. Taking someone else's castoffs seems to be the franchise's MO. They absolutely don't draft and develop their own. THIS MUST STOP!!
Now, with respect to your question about competition for Howell... competition by definition means to compete, which means some form of equity among the combatants. Based on what some here have written about him i.e. "He was a steal" or "we got a first-round talent in round 5" I disagree with both but who the Eff am I? So, based on those observations some of these same people are now making the point that they shouldn't hand him the job but bring in competition and let him win the job. My position based on all of that is... the competition has to have some form of equity in talent and that equity has to come from a young draftee in a situation similar to that of young Mr. Howell. Veterans and higher 1-round picks have marked advantages over him and neither offers fair competition.

 

[j_y19]

First, let's look at the long list of first-round QBs drafted by this team since 1999 that seems to have frightened some so much. (The Snyder era 1999 to present totaling 23 years)

1. 2002 Patrick Ramsey Tulane University. (Round 1 pick 32)
2. 2005 Jason Campbell Auburn University (Round 1 pick 25)
3. 2012 Robert Griffin III Baylor University (Round 1 pick 2)
4. 2019 Dwayne Haskins Ohio State University (Round 1 pick 15)

THAT"S IT 4 in 23 years!

Now let's look at the number of different starting Lower round QBs this team has fielded during that same time.

1. 1999 Brad Johnson (Round 9 pick 227 Vikings)
2. 2001 Tony Banks (Round 2 pick 42 Rams)
3. 2002 Shane Matthews (Undrafted)
4. 2002 Danny Wuerffel (Round 4 Pick 99 Saints)
5. 2003 Tim Hasselbeck (Undrafted)
6. 2005 Mark Brunell (Round 5 pick 118 Packers)
7. 2007 Todd Collins (Round 2 pick 45 Bills)
8. 2011 John Beck (Round 2 pick 40 Dolphins)
9. 2012 Kirk Cousins (Round 4 pick 102 Washington)
10. 2018 Josh Johnson (Round 5 pick 160 Tampa Bay)
11. 2018 Colt McCoy (Round 3 pick 85 Browns)
12. 2019 Case Keenum (Undrafted)
13. 2020 Kyle Allen (Undrafted)
14. 2021 Taylor Heinicke (Undrafted)
15. 2021 Ryan Fitzpatrick (Round 7 pick 250 Rams)
16. 2021 Garrett Gilbert (Round 6 pick 214 Rams)
17. 2022 Sam Howell (Round 5 pick 144 Washington)

THAT"S 17 in 23 years!

The first thing that you might notice is the 4 first-round QBs plus Cousins and Howell, totaling 6, are the ONLY QBs that this franchise actually drafted in 23 years. Taking someone else's castoffs seems to be the franchise's MO. They absolutely don't draft and develop their own. THIS MUST STOP!!
Now, with respect to your question about competition for Howell... competition by definition means to compete, which means some form of equity among the combatants. Based on what some here have written about him i.e. "He was a steal" or "we got a first-round talent in round 5" I disagree with both but who the Eff am I? So, based on those observations some of these same people are now making the point that they shouldn't hand him the job but bring in competition and let him win the job. My position based on all of that is... the competition has to have some form of equity in talent and that equity has to come from a young draftee in a situation similar to that of young Mr. Howell. Veterans and higher 1-round picks have marked advantages over him and neither offers fair competition.

So I made this exact point in another thread in response to your zeal in trading for the bears QB. Glad to see you’ve seen the light!

 

[skinz2winz]

Not sure we should hang our hat on Bienemy.

 

[Stymietee]

So I made this exact point in another thread in response to your zeal in trading for the bears QB. Glad to see you’ve seen the light!

I'm puzzled by this response... and if Chicago makes Fields available, Washington has to be real players in getting him. The issue here is you see Fields as someone else's trash, when in fact he is not even close to being that. On our team, with the weapons that we currently have, he becomes another force multiplier in a league that is transitioning from old school pocket type guys to men who adds the extra value to both run and passing games.

If you watched the Super-Bowl yesterday there were two top line force multiplier QBs on display. One the best in the game (Mahomes) and the other ascending towards a top 5-6 status (Hurts). The question that I have is... why doesn't Washington and apparently some of its fans want one?

 

[kbso83432]