Who are the Bears going to draft #1?

[HaroldSeattle]

I strongly disagree that it would be a step back. I’m certain Williams will be a better NFL QB than Fields, Fields is pretty much a bust and a glorified running back, he doesn’t have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB.

Well I don't feel Williams is a slam dunk to be a great QB TBH. He does have elite elusiveness in the backfield and a great arm but playing in the PAC 12 doesn't do much to prepare a QB for the NFL. As @Dr. Strangelove has mentioned the Pac 12 defenses are as soft as butter allowing for QBs to put up great stats without developing going through progressions or reading defenses even. Basically Williams only had to look at his first read then scrabble ( if his first target wasn't open) and find a receiver that found open space. He'll have to develop those skills ( going through progressions with receivers and reading defenses) in the NFL. However he has that elite god given elusiveness to help him and he'll be on a rookie contract which really helps when it comes to stocking a roster.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I strongly disagree that it would be a step back. I’m certain Williams will be a better NFL QB than Fields, Fields is pretty much a bust and a glorified running back, he doesn’t have what it takes to be an NFL franchise QB.

Is the Bears problem, drafting the wrong guys or the inability to develop QB's, any QB? I would think a combination of the two.

I am not convinced Caleb will be a franchise QB in Chicago but I do agree it is a step up from Fields. How much of a step is the only question mark? A lot of what makes prospects great is their situation, coaching, FO, etc. Of course a lot of it is mental makeup. Some guys have it, some guys don't bc we know a lot of guys have it physically.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Well I don't feel Williams is a slam dunk to be a great QB TBH. He does have elite elusiveness in the backfield and a great arm but playing in the PAC 12 doesn't do much to prepare a QB for the NFL. As @Dr. Strangelove has mentioned the Pac 12 defenses are as soft as butter allowing for QBs to put up great stats without developing going through progressions or reading defenses even. Basically Williams only had to look at his first read then scrabble ( if his first target wasn't open) and find a receiver that found open space. He'll have to develop those skills ( going through progressions with receivers and reading defenses) in the NFL. However he has that elite god given elusiveness to help him and he'll be on a rookie contract which really helps when it comes to stocking a roster.

Agree, I think most thought Luck was a slam dunk QB. These guys are very rare. Even most of the great QB's in this league weren't slam dunks but actually the opposite. Valued lower or had great development from when they were drafted to what they would become. I mean Peyton was a #1 but he started off with a rocky career.

Most of the #1 picks were not slam dunks.

The only ones I can think of in the last 40 years or so (just #1 overall picks):

Luck
Manning
Elway
Stafford
Cam

 

[redskinsfan1963]

i agree with all those but scam newton.he was iffy at best.

 

[Shanemansj13]

i agree with all those but scam newton.he was iffy at best.

Combine score of 98.
He had a very high prospect grade which predicted future all-pro.

To compare, Luck scored a 99. Cam scored a 98. I will never say he was up to Luck's standards bc that can't really be touched but he seemed like a sure pick at the time.

It's not like they were wrong. He won a MVP and took his team to the SB.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

If you have followed the bears closely this off-season, half the people talk on the odd weeks that the bears are trading the pick and the other half talk on the even weeks that the bears are trading fields.

Poles is just trying to drive up the price and make a decision later.

 

[redskinsfan1963]

Combine score of 98.
He had a very high prospect grade which predicted future all-pro.

To compare, Luck scored a 99. Cam scored a 98. I will never say he was up to Luck's standards bc that can't really be touched but he seemed like a sure pick at the time.

It's not like they were wrong. He won a MVP and took his team to the SB.

he was decent in panther blue,but total shit in other unis.

 

[Tainthappening]

Well I don't feel Williams is a slam dunk to be a great QB TBH. He does have elite elusiveness in the backfield and a great arm but playing in the PAC 12 doesn't do much to prepare a QB for the NFL.

Was surprised at the comment... then tried to think of some recent starting NFL QBs out of the PAC12... only ones I came up with were Rodgers (2005 draft) and Goff (2016 draft).

There are a lot others in backup rolls... best of the next may be Darnold, Mariota, Minshew...

But can probably pick apart most conferences... Big10 I can think of Fields, Wilson, Stroud, Cousins as starting QBs.

 

[Rowdy]

They can get a 2nd for Fields. At worst a 3rd. Depends on if it is early, mid or late 2nd

They lose all leverage taking a qb #1. The best they can get out of fields is a 3rd. Imo

 

[shopson67]

If the Bears don’t take Williams, they are fucking stupid. Fields just isn’t the answer, he’s just not a good passer and he hasn’t improved at all in his 3 seasons. Passing on a QB as good as Williams to keep a mediocre QB like Fields is just dumb. Bears will certainly take Williams IMO.

Their great fortune in having the opportunity to draft Caleb just fall in their laps accelerates their decision on Fields. They could trade down, acquiring future draft capital to push this decision out another year or two, but will either future draft have another prospect at Caleb's level? That's the risk.

 

[shopson67]

Seen too many great CFB qb's stink it up in the NFL. Not knocking Williams. But he won't fix anything. If anything it would be a step back for Chicago to go with a rookie QB for a team lacking many offensive weapons.

If you fear the unknown with QB prospects, you will never get one (and will never have the roster building advantage of a cost-controlled QB on a rookie contract). All they can do is trust their scouting.

The Bears have weapons. Moore, Kmet, Herbert/Roschon, Wright/Jones at OT, and the #9 pick to add another target if they so choose. They could use some additions to the IOL, another edge, and continue to upgrade overall, but the cupboard is not bare.

 

[shopson67]

Well I don't feel Williams is a slam dunk to be a great QB TBH. He does have elite elusiveness in the backfield and a great arm but playing in the PAC 12 doesn't do much to prepare a QB for the NFL. As @Dr. Strangelove has mentioned the Pac 12 defenses are as soft as butter allowing for QBs to put up great stats without developing going through progressions or reading defenses even. Basically Williams only had to look at his first read then scrabble ( if his first target wasn't open) and find a receiver that found open space. He'll have to develop those skills ( going through progressions with receivers and reading defenses) in the NFL. However he has that elite god given elusiveness to help him and he'll be on a rookie contract which really helps when it comes to stocking a roster.

If you watch his game film, he does progress through his reads. Your description actually sounds more like Fields IMO.

 

[shopson67]

They lose all leverage taking a qb #1. The best they can get out of fields is a 3rd. Imo

The trade would most likely happen before the draft, as they wouldn't want to lose all leverage on the trade. If teams can't trade up for a top 3 QB (and don't like the 4-6 options), Fields will be their top option. Cousins wants $45M and Baker is likely staying in TB. Maybe Wilson is available, but the shine if off of him. After that, who is out there? Jimmy G? I still think the Bears get a 2nd and possibly a future conditional 4th that can become a 3rd (or something along those lines).

 

[shopson67]

Was surprised at the comment... then tried to think of some recent starting NFL QBs out of the PAC12... only ones I came up with were Rodgers (2005 draft) and Goff (2016 draft).

There are a lot others in backup rolls... best of the next may be Darnold, Mariota, Minshew...

But can probably pick apart most conferences... Big10 I can think of Fields, Wilson, Stroud, Cousins as starting QBs.

He's being drafted out of a pro style system at USC after playing as a freshman in Oklahoma (and chasing Rattler out of OK).

None of those others were the prospect that Caleb is perceived to be. At this time last year, everyone was busy downgrading Stroud. How did that work out for Houston (and Carolina)?

 

[Shanemansj13]

They lose all leverage taking a qb #1. The best they can get out of fields is a 3rd. Imo

He might be worth a 3rd but there should be no leverage if they trade him before the draft

 

[Tainthappening]

He's being drafted out of a pro style system at USC after playing as a freshman in Oklahoma (and chasing Rattler out of OK).

None of those others were the prospect that Caleb is perceived to be. At this time last year, everyone was busy downgrading Stroud. How did that work out for Houston (and Carolina)?

My comment was regarding PAC 12... and I reviewed NFL rosters who from the conference was now in the NFL playing QB.

I do not follow college ball and have no idea if Williams will succeed.

 

[Shanemansj13]

My comment was regarding PAC 12... and I reviewed NFL rosters who from the conference was now in the NFL playing QB.

I do not follow college ball and have no idea if Williams will succeed.

yeah conference and school really has no barring on if a player will succeed. Now if we are talking college coaches I could agree.
All the talk leading up the draft last year was Ohio St QB’s not succeeding in the NFL even though only 2 QB’s were first rounders. Stroud looks pretty damn good.
Caleb is unlike any QB we saw drafted from USC.
I think comparisons, floors, ceilings, etc. is all bullshit anyway. It’s just another point for these football guys to talk about even though 95% of the time they are wrong about these comparisons

 

[Tainthappening]

yeah conference and school really has no barring on if a player will succeed. Now if we are talking college coaches I could agree.
All the talk leading up the draft last year was Ohio St QB’s not succeeding in the NFL even though only 2 QB’s were first rounders. Stroud looks pretty damn good.
Caleb is unlike any QB we saw drafted from USC.
I think comparisons, floors, ceilings, etc. is all bullshit anyway. It’s just another point for these football guys to talk about even though 95% of the time they are wrong about these comparisons

The draft is not an exact science...

They said the same about Rodgers coming out of Cal (no QBs succeeding in NFL from school)... Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant, Kurt Warner undrafted...

For all those misses there are all the #1 overall picks that did not live up to expectations (Mayfield, Winston, Bradford, Russel, A. Smith, Couch, Carr...) not to mention other QBs drafted in 1st round that have not made it.

 

[cwalke3408]

Well I don't feel Williams is a slam dunk to be a great QB TBH. He does have elite elusiveness in the backfield and a great arm but playing in the PAC 12 doesn't do much to prepare a QB for the NFL. As @Dr. Strangelove has mentioned the Pac 12 defenses are as soft as butter allowing for QBs to put up great stats without developing going through progressions or reading defenses even. Basically Williams only had to look at his first read then scrabble ( if his first target wasn't open) and find a receiver that found open space. He'll have to develop those skills ( going through progressions with receivers and reading defenses) in the NFL. However he has that elite god given elusiveness to help him and he'll be on a rookie contract which really helps when it comes to stocking a roster.

Meh.
1. Plenty QBs has had success coming from Pac-12, Big12, ACC and even G5
2. It's no different than QBs coming from loaded rosters like LSU, OSU, Bama, etc who have plenty of time in the pocket to throw it to open WRs

 

[Wamu]

If you fear the unknown with QB prospects, you will never get one (and will never have the roster building advantage of a cost-controlled QB on a rookie contract). All they can do is trust their scouting.

The Bears have weapons. Moore, Kmet, Herbert/Roschon, Wright/Jones at OT, and the #9 pick to add another target if they so choose. They could use some additions to the IOL, another edge, and continue to upgrade overall, but the cupboard is not bare.

Fear of the unknown? That's really odd thing to say for something that happens all the time. Many top picks, not just QB's, don't live up to the hype of being drafted so high.

It's not as you put it fear of the unknown. It's being completely honest that top picks don't live up to expectations. And I'm not just talking about the NFL. It happens in the NBA too. Probably MLB & NHL.

My point was daBears need a lot more than just another QB. Very few QB's have good/great rookie seasons. Haven't really followed any of the pre-draft hype. But has Williams been called a can't miss prospect? If he has ship JF outta the Windy City ASAP.

What I say next is unrelated to this conversation.

"all they can do is trust the scouting"

^^^

That's something Josh McD didn't do when he wasted a 1st rounder on Tebow. But at least it wasn't a high pick, 20-something.