What's your criteria on draft day?

[TREFF]

How do you make the hard decisions on draft day? And I'm not talking about which guy to take in the first round, I'm talking about the middle rounds, the late rounds, the ones where there isn't an obvious choice.
Personally, in order of preference, this is mine.

#1. Overall talent of the individual(s) in question. First let me state that the eye test is my #1 determining factor when I'm trying to gauge overall talent. You can spout off all the combine numbers, and 40 times, and wingspans, and yadda yadda you want, let me see what the guy looks like on the field. This does lead to me missing on a few rookies here and there if I haven't seen them play in college and if the draft is held before i've had a chance to see them in the preseason games, but it also keeps me from swinging and missing on those guys as well.
But really, overall talent, to me, is the #1 determining factor of whether a guy is going to put up numbers or not.
#2 Opportunity/offensive system. This is very closely behind #1, as all the talent in the world won't put up numbers if he's buried behind BJGE on the depth chart. Also, the worlds greatest WR isn't going to be a WR1 in fantasy land without a good QB and at least a balanced offense, if not a pass happy one. See Larry Fitzgerald as exhibit A.
#3 surrounding talent- this somewhat goes hand in hand with offensive system, but more is referring to the Oline for RB's, and the opposite side receivers for WR's. If overall talent and system seem to be neck and neck for me when deciding between two Rb's, I'll go with the one who has the better Oline, or if need be, to who has the better QB. Likewise, if choosing a a guy from the third tier WR group, I"ll give preference to the one playing opposite a bona fide stud, hoping for less double teams.
4# Personal preference-this may not be a popular one, as it has absolutely no statistical basis, but honestly, I participate in this hobby because I enjoy it, I enjoy it even more, when I have one of "my guys" on my team. I won't go full homer and grab a guy only because of it, but all things being equal, I'll take that Cowboy or Raider, or former Husker player, just so I have even more of a reason to cheer for them on gameday.
and finally, #5, Strength of Schedule. This is so low, the bottom of my measuring stick in fact, because strength of schedule is tied directly to last year's numbers. Teams philosophies change, the coach change, the coordinators change, the players change, hell the players AGE. WAY WAY too many variables to take into account when projecting who has an easy or hard schedule as it pertains to facing certain defenses. Of course there are exceptions to this, there are teams that are surefire strong defenses (SF, SEA) and they do need to be accounted for when determining a draft day value, but in reality, the most your guy is facing that team is twice a year, and there's no guarantee that they'll be a shut down defense on that particular week anyways. I give it about the minimal amount of attention that it deserves.

Anyone else have any different theories?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

there is no black an white answer to this...

but basically i decide how many of each position i want... if there are players that i want later on when running low on my quotas, i will jump the position...

for example, lets just say, i have 4 WRs already and i want a 5th, but i know i want to take chance on Jordan Matthews, i will not take mike wallace even though he may be the best available...

My bench is based more on hunches of mine and my starting roster is based more on projected stats(and how correct i think they will be)...

 

[averagejoe]

I like them all, but I like #4 and try to do the same - but not out of desperation either.

I usually try to account for these in my personal rankings. But just in case I'm distracted during the draft (or my friends have unfortunately limited their alcohol consumption), I have this list in the lower corner of my personal cheat sheet:

• Don't take too many chances.
• Pay attention to the positions drafted.
• Beware of BYE weeks.
• Beware of media "hyped" players.
• A great TE, K & D is only equal to an avg WR.
• Most injuries take a year to heal.
• Don't stockpile players from bad teams.
• Rookie RB & WR rarely have a 1K+ season.
• Do not base a career on the previous season.
• Never draft a rookie QB. Ever.

 

[leftypower]

I'd say that is a very good synopsis. I will sometimes factor in the age of the players, as well as, injury history for those really hard decisions. That is, if all the other factors are very close. Insert that as my #4 and bump the others down.

 

[SteelersPride]

for me i always go with oppurtunity, who has the best chance, who is in position to get more reps.......in alot of situations i take a less talented player who will get more volume, can get points without the ball

 

[TKOSpikes]

I try and find the "starter" who isn't as good as the "backup". Along with the guys behind the always-injured, these two scenarios should give you good odds at finding the diamond in the rough.

So, other camp names I'll be watching are
Andre Caldwell. Learning the Peyton system might not be all hunky dory for Sanders... and even still, Welker is becoming a good bet to miss a few games. Caldwell had a few sneaky games last year and could come out of nowhere with a two years of this offense under his belt.
Dexter McCluster. KC waited and got nothing, and a lot of people are claiming Bishop Sankey a 3-down back already. Wil mentioned Shonn Greene as a possible sneaky "off the radar" late pick. I say the Titans are going to be bad, like Buffalo bad and I just assume they'll be playing from behind all the time. Look at Danny Woodhead's stats last year, and ask yourself why McCluster can't do that?

 

[TREFF]

I try and find the "starter" who isn't as good as the "backup". Along with the guys behind the always-injured, these two scenarios should give you good odds at finding the diamond in the rough.

So, other camp names I'll be watching are
Andre Caldwell. Learning the Peyton system might not be all hunky dory for Sanders... and even still, Welker is becoming a good bet to miss a few games. Caldwell had a few sneaky games last year and could come out of nowhere with a two years of this offense under his belt.
Dexter McCluster. KC waited and got nothing, and a lot of people are claiming Bishop Sankey a 3-down back already. Wil mentioned Shonn Greene as a possible sneaky "off the radar" late pick. I say the Titans are going to be bad, like Buffalo bad and I just assume they'll be playing from behind all the time. Look at Danny Woodhead's stats last year, and ask yourself why McCluster can't do that?

Don't get me wrong, I've been a big McCluster supporter ever since he came out of ole' miss.. but my first guess out of the box would be that because Jake Locker isn't even a shadow of what Philip Rivers is.

 

[wilwhite]

I make projections. Those factors you listed go into how I make them - although #2 easily trumps #1 for me.

Roughly, when it's my turn to draft, I look at my projections, figure who I'd be likely to get at each position next round or two, and take whichever one will save me from the biggest drop in FF points. Sometimes I also estimate the likelihood that they'll stay healthy/get the opportunity. If a "risky" guy is the last one at a position before a big drop, I'll take him, knowing I'll probably have to hedge that bet with a deeper bench at that position.

It doesn't matter to me which position it is in which round - it usually works itself out.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Honestly TREFF, I tend to use all 4 one way or another..................

 

[Davis_Mike]

I use a complicated tier system tailored to each league's scoring system I play in. That usually takes 95% of the work out of the actual drafting process.

The hard part is the prep work going into tinkering whatever system you use.

 

[TREFF]

Honestly TREFF, I tend to use all 4 one way or another..................

As do I.. just prioritizing them here

 

[TREFF]

I use a complicated tier system tailored to each league's scoring system I play in. That usually takes 95% of the work out of the actual drafting process.

The hard part is the prep work going into tinkering whatever system you use.

Agreed % 100.. I do the same, and this is basically just a layering of that process

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Well, for instance: There is a player I really wanted on my Suicide League team and was looking to get him in the 8th-10th round.......................he went in the 7th. So, although I really wanted this guy (I see #2 and #3 with this guy with a lot of #1 thrown in) I didn't let #4 take over. That's probably why I don't draft too many Rams in higher rounds (I usually take a flier on one in the late rounds). BTW, ended up with FJax in the 7th and Newton in the 8th so I guess I can't complain; now I know if I really want this guy I better target him in the 6th (and I don't know if I want him that bad).

 

[tlance]

I never try to enter the draft room with a plan. Always be prepared, but let the chips fall where they may.

As for my basic ideologies, I try to draft a relatively safe player in rounds 1-3 a mix of upside and solid players in rounds 4-8, and then swing for the fences late.

Talent and situation pretty much trump everything else for me though.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

BTW TREFF, cool thread.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

how much should you fear the injury prone players??

I actually think that they get a bad wrap in fantasy...

 

[TREFF]

how much should you fear the injury prone players??

I actually think that they get a bad wrap in fantasy...

Not something that I thought to include. . Good question.

I guess m thoughts on it is that each and every player weighs differently in that category for me. If the guy is a superior talent, like DMC USED to be, I'll largely overlook it just for the potential of having those huge weeks on my team and not my opponents.
If the guy is just really good, but basically in a big group who are are in the same "tier", I won't touch em. Guys like MJD, Cutler, formerly Miles Austin..ect.. are in this category.

But if I do take one of those guys, it does affect my strategy later on, I'll take a backup at that position a round or two earlier than I normally would.

 

[Bandit]

It depends on what we are talking about here. If we are talking about a timed draft versus a live draft then you have a lot less time to factor all these things in. In the early rounds I pretty much stick to my list with a few exceptions depending on the flow of the draft. Once it gets to about round 10 there are always a few guys that seem to end up on my team that late as sleepers. Last year it was Zach Sudfeld and Kembrell Thompkins . . . that worked out well. Honestly I would say that 75% of the time I end up dropping the players from the back end of the draft for guys on waivers anyway, so I use to put a lot more stock in it than I do now. As you guys know, in the majority of leagues there are only 5-6 guys that actually pay attention and play the waiver wire correctly, unlike this league where trying to get a guy is a nightmare, so I do a lot of my damage in season. Actually the biggest problem I have every year is holding on to guys long enough during the season. I do all this sleeper research during the pre-season and draft these guys and then only sit on them for like 3 weeks before I get antsy and drop them for guys like Eddie Royal and then in week 6 they blow up and I no longer have them on my bench and it really pisses me off every year.

Anyway, the only thing I do factor in that I didn't see on your list when we get into the late rounds are the playoff schedule of each team in weeks 14-16. Yes the volatility of defenses is hard to predict each year, but in any round I will use that as a last ditch effort to differentiate between guys I think have the same talent level and yes it's presumptuous of me to think I will be in the playoffs, but if I wasn't good at this I wouldn't be playing with you guys right.

Even in the higher rounds I find myself doing that sometimes. If we are in the 5th round and Andre Ellington, Ben Tate, and Rashad Jennings are all available, it's tough for me to convince myself to draft Ellington (who will play SF and SEA four times) or Tate (who plays six games against CIN, BAL, & PIT) over Jennings who plays in the division with collectively the worst defenses in the NFL.

 

[Barilko]

What's your criteria on draft day?


Showing Up..

 

[Barilko]

#2 Opportunity/offensive system. This is very closely behind #1, as all the talent in the world won't put up numbers if he's buried behind BJGE on the depth chart.

Treff are talking about the aptly football named Rex Burkhead again