What Will LeBron Do This Summer?

[WiggyRuss]

I figured this would be a big time thread- and right now the conversations are across a number of them.



My opinion is that his MOST Likely avenue is staying in Cleveland- but that is under a 50% probability.

Right now this is what my percentages are- and they are of course subject to a million things that could change before now and the beginning of July


1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 35%
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 25%
3. Philadelphia 76'ers: 20%
4. Houston Rockets: 20%

If just pure going for a ring is most important to him- it will be Houston. He will force his way there and they will move mountains to get him. If he says- I want to go there. He will get there.

If he wants to stay in the East- and be on a team that is very talented- but could use his leadership- he will go to Philly.

If he wants to try and shake things up and make a big story out of it- he will go to LA

If he wants to protect his legacy he will stay in Cleveland.


If he stays with Cleveland, and Cleveland can bring in a solid player on the MLE, and a solid player with the trade of the #8 pick- this is a very solid option for him. It depends what they can add. If they can say, add a good 3 and D wing on the mid level thats ring hunting, and a player like McCollum with the pick. I think he stays in Cleveland.

If the Lakers can pull off getting 2 max players- by signing LeBron and George, and then say trading some of their young guys for a third max player- the Lakers become an option. If PG resigns in OKC you can take the Lakers off the table.

If Philly fires Colangelo and hires Griffin I think all of a sudden they get a leg up. LeBron likes and respects Griffin and it would give him a connection to Philly and a little bit of cover as to not look like a mercenary.

If he wants to simply win and win big then going to Houston is the play. I dont think LeBron wants to share the ball that much though- and even if he wins a title there- does it really improve his legacy that much winning with Harden and CP3? If he wants to share the load with other true superstars this is the way to go.

 

[hatcher3333]

well he won't be going to the White House

 

[trojanfan12]

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 35%
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 25%
3. Philadelphia 76'ers: 20%
4. Houston Rockets: 20%

I'd have Houston's percentage a little lower and the Cavs a little higher (maybe 40%). Houston doesn't make a lot of sense from a basketball perspective and I think Lebron is probably smart enough to see that. Those 3 names together is definitely intriguing, but I think it's his worst fit. I agree that if he wants to go there, the Rockets will move mountains. But CP3 has said he's not taking less than a max and with what they'd have to give up, they won't have any depth and CP3 is old and injury prone (which is part of why he left D-Wade and the Heat).

If he stays with Cleveland, and Cleveland can bring in a solid player on the MLE, and a solid player with the trade of the #8 pick- this is a very solid option for him. It depends what they can add. If they can say, add a good 3 and D wing on the mid level thats ring hunting, and a player like McCollum with the pick. I think he stays in Cleveland.

That's an awful lot to have to try to pull off considering their current situation. I think, in his heart, he probably wants to retire a Cav. So, I think that gives them the best shot. Especially if he doesn't see other options that are likely to get him another ring soon.

If Philly fires Colangelo and hires Griffin I think all of a sudden they get a leg up. LeBron likes and respects Griffin and it would give him a connection to Philly and a little bit of cover as to not look like a mercenary.

Yeah, if they bring in Griffin, that might make them a favorite to get him. One of the things that has been said against him going there is that he has no connection to Philly. As you point out, that would give him one.

If the Lakers can pull off getting 2 max players- by signing LeBron and George, and then say trading some of their young guys for a third max player- the Lakers become an option. If PG resigns in OKC you can take the Lakers off the table.

I don't think the Lakers have to trade for another max guy to get Lebron. It would obviously help, but I don't think it's necessary. If they sign PG and can bring in a couple of solid vet role players (especially if they can shoot and remember the score lol) that would likely be enough. Or even if they traded for another max guy and used the remaining space to sign Lebron and a couple "next tier" guys.

End of the day, there really isn't a perfect "ready made" landing spot, which I think ultimately helps the Cavs chances of keeping him.

 

[Heatles84]

Given Lebron's playoff run and his recent comments. Coupled with the fact that Cleveland's stuck with the roster that they have, I can't name them the favorites to retain Lebron.

 

[Heatles84]

I'd have Houston's percentage a little lower and the Cavs a little higher (maybe 40%). Houston doesn't make a lot of sense from a basketball perspective and I think Lebron is probably smart enough to see that. Those 3 names together is definitely intriguing, but I think it's his worst fit. I agree that if he wants to go there, the Rockets will move mountains. But CP3 has said he's not taking less than a max and with what they'd have to give up, they won't have any depth and CP3 is old and injury prone (which is part of why he left D-Wade and the Heat).



That's an awful lot to have to try to pull off considering their current situation. I think, in his heart, he probably wants to retire a Cav. So, I think that gives them the best shot. Especially if he doesn't see other options that are likely to get him another ring soon.



Yeah, if they bring in Griffin, that might make them a favorite to get him. One of the things that has been said against him going there is that he has no connection to Philly. As you point out, that would give him one.



I don't think the Lakers have to trade for another max guy to get Lebron. It would obviously help, but I don't think it's necessary. If they sign PG and can bring in a couple of solid vet role players (especially if they can shoot and remember the score lol) that would likely be enough. Or even if they traded for another max guy and used the remaining space to sign Lebron and a couple "next tier" guys.

End of the day, there really isn't a perfect "ready made" landing spot, which I think ultimately helps the Cavs chances of keeping him.

Agree with everything until the bolded. Just because neither of the spots are a perfect made situation, doesn't mean they aren't better. The fact that Lebron's stuck with a mediocre roster, coaching staff, and one of the most disliked owners in the league gives him a ready made excuse. Also, Lebron knows that with winning a title for Cleveland, that his legacy is cemented over there and this time, he's going to get minimal blowback for leaving again.

 

[trojanfan12]

Agree with everything until the bolded. Just because neither of the spots are a perfect made situation, doesn't mean they aren't better. The fact that Lebron's stuck with a mediocre roster, coaching staff, and one of the most disliked owners in the league gives him a ready made excuse. Also, Lebron knows that with winning a title for Cleveland, that his legacy is cemented over there and this time, he's going to get minimal blowback for leaving again.

I agree that he can leave with little to no blowback and any of those situations is likely better than his current one. I'm just not convinced he'll leave if he doesn't see an immediate title chance somewhere else. Especially if the Cavs pull off something like Wiggy suggested.

 

[WiggyRuss]

The Cavs could definitely get Kemba Walker if they wanted to--- but unless they were able to get more out o fthe deal- id want more for #8.

Kemba would be an interesting player- but id rather have the size of McCollum. Plus- McCollum is a Cleveland guy- huge Browns fan...etc....he would be an amazing get.

If the Cavs could get McCollum and somehow get a PJ Tucker like guy to take the mMle i would feel really good about LeBron coming back.


however, if the Lakers could pull off adding 3 max guys- that might just be too tempting for LeBron.

Or if you gave David Griffin the Sixers and all their assets- he could put together a monster team with LeBron.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Given Lebron's playoff run and his recent comments. Coupled with the fact that Cleveland's stuck with the roster that they have, I can't name them the favorites to retain Lebron.

Cavs arent stuck with this roster as long as you think.

Smith is up after this next year......Hill and TT the following year....2 years is a long time....but if they can make it work in the interim- then after that the CAvs would have an opportunity to kind of reset for the home stretch of his career

some part of me almost thinks- Sure LeBron- go to Houston for 2 years---- let the Cavs reload- let GSW get broken up by the cap-- and then come back.


if the Cavs traded LeBron to the Rockets- and got Gordon and 2 first rounders from Houston--- and then sent Gordon somewhere else for a first rounder, and dealt love, dealt Korver, sucked for a couple years.....they would all of a sudden ahve a TON of assets, a couple really nice good young players, and tons of cap space after just 2 years.

If LeBron went to Houston for 2 years- played with Harden and CP3 during Cp3's last big time years--- and the ncame back i would not be thrilled but id be okay with it and it might be the best thing long term.

 

[jontaejones]

Going to Houston would seem like a no win for him.

If they win, then the best player in the NBA joined a team that had the best record in the NBA.

If they lose, then it's even worse.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Going to Houston would seem like a no win for him.

If they win, then the best player in the NBA joined a team that had the best record in the NBA.

If they lose, then it's even worse.

thats the thing with HOuston- there is no upside for LeBron. There is no upside to him joining a "super team"

its why i sitll have the Cavs and Lakers as the favorites.

 

[Heatles84]

Cavs arent stuck with this roster as long as you think.

Smith is up after this next year......Hill and TT the following year....2 years is a long time....but if they can make it work in the interim- then after that the CAvs would have an opportunity to kind of reset for the home stretch of his career

some part of me almost thinks- Sure LeBron- go to Houston for 2 years---- let the Cavs reload- let GSW get broken up by the cap-- and then come back.


if the Cavs traded LeBron to the Rockets- and got Gordon and 2 first rounders from Houston--- and then sent Gordon somewhere else for a first rounder, and dealt love, dealt Korver, sucked for a couple years.....they would all of a sudden ahve a TON of assets, a couple really nice good young players, and tons of cap space after just 2 years.

If LeBron went to Houston for 2 years- played with Harden and CP3 during Cp3's last big time years--- and the ncame back i would not be thrilled but id be okay with it and it might be the best thing long term.

That's wishful thinking.

If Lebron leaves Cleveland, it's highly likely that he's going to retire with the team that he goes to considering that he's going to be 34 in December.

Also, Cleveland had 3 #1 picks in 4 years along with 2 other top 5 picks. In a short time frame, their roster has deteriorated to what they have now. The Cavs are not likely going to have that type of luck again and will need a competent GM to guide them through a transition - something Gilbert has show he's not willing to invest for considering he let a quality GM in Griffin walk.

 

[Heatles84]

That's wishful thinking.

If Lebron leaves Cleveland, it's highly likely that he's going to retire with the team that he goes to considering that he's going to be 34 in December.

Also, Cleveland had 3 #1 picks in 4 years along with 2 other top 5 picks. In a short time frame, their roster has deteriorated to what they have now. The Cavs are not likely going to have that type of luck again and will need a competent GM to guide them through a transition - something Gilbert has show he's not willing to invest for considering he let a quality GM in Griffin walk.

Also, if you're going to say that Miami's stuck in mediocrity with the contracts that they have. I don't know how you could say that Cleveland's not in a bad situation in the very same breath.

 

[Heatles84]

Going to Houston would seem like a no win for him.

If they win, then the best player in the NBA joined a team that had the best record in the NBA.

If they lose, then it's even worse.

The lose part you make sense.

The winning part would be that he bridged the gap and took down the Warriors (presumably).

He'd also be the best player on a title team on 3 different teams (Miami and Cleveland the other 2) - that's never been done before.

 

[WiggyRuss]

That's wishful thinking.

If Lebron leaves Cleveland, it's highly likely that he's going to retire with the team that he goes to considering that he's going to be 34 in December.

Also, Cleveland had 3 #1 picks in 4 years along with 2 other top 5 picks. In a short time frame, their roster has deteriorated to what they have now. The Cavs are not likely going to have that type of luck again and will need a competent GM to guide them through a transition - something Gilbert has show he's not willing to invest for considering he let a quality GM in Griffin walk.

I cant wait until a few years down the road we get the real story on Gilbert and Griffin.

But also i think you are wrong about Lebron- he has said he wants to play with his kid. I think he will be around for a while. Especially since i think he could be a top 20 player in the league for al ong long long time yet.

And like i said- if say the Cavs dealt him to Houston- they could pack in the assets really really fast- and be ready to go a lot quicker then people think....

like i said- say LeBron asks for a trade to Houston--- like they did when they sent him to Miami they got a couple late first rounders----

you send Gordon away in a 3 team deal- hes played great and someone would give up a nice asset for him.

You send Love away- hes still near a 20/10 guy who made the last 2 all stars teams-- Phoenix would be a great spot for him and tehy have a ton of assets.

Korver could net you a 2nd rounder or two

you suck the next 2 years---- and get 2 lotto picks to add to the lotto pick you have. You have at least 3-4 extra first rounders from trading Bron, Gordon, Love. You already have a couple young guys like Nance and Osman that you can develop.

The Cavs are in much much better position going forward then they were last time if LeBron leaves--- and they are in MUUCH better shape then your Heat who have absolutely bungled just about every call they have made since LeBron left.

 

[WiggyRuss]

Also, if you're going to say that Miami's stuck in mediocrity with the contracts that they have. I don't know how you could say that Cleveland's not in a bad situation in the very same breath.

Miami has no draft capital and really no assets that they could even deal to acquire draft capital.

The Heat have no first rounder this year. They still owe an UNPROTECTED first rounder to the Suns. They have no 2nd rounders for years. They have no asset like Kevin Love that could bring back a first rounder or two.

The Heat have Richardson on a solid contract--- they have Winslow who rehabbed his image a little in the playoffs but has mostly been an injury riddled dissapointment- and they have Bam- basically a poor mans TT. Other than that they really dont have anything another team would want. Dragic is solid but hes getting up there and on a 1 year deal. If you trade for him youd have to pay him a lot of money and thats with some risk with his age. Maybe you could move Olnyk but no one is giving you anything for him.

J. Johnson, Waiters, T. Johnson, Whiteside are not worth what they are signed for.

 

[Heatles84]

I cant wait until a few years down the road we get the real story on Gilbert and Griffin.

But also i think you are wrong about Lebron- he has said he wants to play with his kid. I think he will be around for a while. Especially since i think he could be a top 20 player in the league for al ong long long time yet.

And like i said- if say the Cavs dealt him to Houston- they could pack in the assets really really fast- and be ready to go a lot quicker then people think....

like i said- say LeBron asks for a trade to Houston--- like they did when they sent him to Miami they got a couple late first rounders----

you send Gordon away in a 3 team deal- hes played great and someone would give up a nice asset for him.

You send Love away- hes still near a 20/10 guy who made the last 2 all stars teams-- Phoenix would be a great spot for him and tehy have a ton of assets.

Korver could net you a 2nd rounder or two

you suck the next 2 years---- and get 2 lotto picks to add to the lotto pick you have. You have at least 3-4 extra first rounders from trading Bron, Gordon, Love. You already have a couple young guys like Nance and Osman that you can develop.

The Cavs are in much much better position going forward then they were last time if LeBron leaves--- and they are in MUUCH better shape then your Heat who have absolutely bungled just about every call they have made since LeBron left.

The problem with your scenario is that Love's not going to garner a ton of trade value with his contract going forward. His value has diminished. Also, as you pointed out, Houston's picks will be late 1st round picks where you have to hope that your scouting department works out.

Korver's 37 years old. He still has some value, but his play could drop at any moment.

I also wouldn't talk shit about the Cavs scouting department compared to the Heat's. You keep mentioning that all of these team's are going to give up a bevy of draft picks, yet keep telling us how teams are holding draft picks at a premium now. Besides, the Heat have found gems at 2nd round picks whereas the Cavs have draft busts with top 5 picks.

 

[WiggyRuss]

the Cavs on the other hand--- lets just have a hypothetical where they deal LeBron to Houston for Gordon and one 1st.

Theyd have the Brooklyn pick. All their own picks after this year. houstons first. They could move Gordon for a first pretty easily. They could move Love easily for a first or more.

TT and Hill are their 2 big contracts that are up after 2 seasons.

Say those 2 seasons from now- that summer LeBron will be 36.

Cavs would presumably have their Brooklyn lotto- and 2 lotto picks of their own--- and at least 3-4 other first rounders. Tons of cap space. And it would allow LeBron to retire at home. if the worst happens and LeBron leaves- they could easily rebuild the team very very quickly and make it attractive for him to comeback to finish it out.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Lebron ain’t going out west. I have no clue why people keep thinking he’ll go to Houston. He wants to keep his 8 straight finals streak alive. That’s not going to happen out west.

 

[Heatles84]

Miami has no draft capital and really no assets that they could even deal to acquire draft capital.

The Heat have no first rounder this year. They still owe an UNPROTECTED first rounder to the Suns. They have no 2nd rounders for years. They have no asset like Kevin Love that could bring back a first rounder or two.

The Heat have Richardson on a solid contract--- they have Winslow who rehabbed his image a little in the playoffs but has mostly been an injury riddled dissapointment- and they have Bam- basically a poor mans TT. Other than that they really dont have anything another team would want. Dragic is solid but hes getting up there and on a 1 year deal. If you trade for him youd have to pay him a lot of money and thats with some risk with his age. Maybe you could move Olnyk but no one is giving you anything for him.

J. Johnson, Waiters, T. Johnson, Whiteside are not worth what they are signed for.

Love's not bringing in multiple 1st rounders - he's a player who's play has diminished and is often injured. LOL

Bam's also better than TT. That's hilarious.

Also - TT, JR and Hill are not worth what they are signed for. See how that shit works? At least I'm willing to admit that the Heat are going to have to ride this roster out for the next 2 years. You're hoping for a lot of things to fall into place. This is fucking hilarious.

 

[Heatles84]

Lebron ain’t going out west. I have no clue why people keep thinking he’ll go to Houston. He wants to keep his 8 straight finals streak alive. That’s not going to happen out west.

I see the sixers being an incredibly real possibility more and more.