What to Draft in Dynasty?

[averagejoe]

There was a 2016 NBC Sports article that said...

“According to our most recent statistics that we drew on the first round, it’s less than 60 percent of those players that are starting. I think it may have come in at 56 percent. So point being it’s not an exact science, we know that."​

Before that there was a 2014 SB Nation post that calculated the first 3 rounds of 5 drafts (from 2010 thru 2014) and said that the league average of starters was 61%.

This is my first year as a dynasty owner. And in a few months I will be having my first rookie dynasty draft. I have no idea how to approach it? Really.

I say that because a typical QB may take years to develop. Though you wouldn't get the impression by looking at Dak Prescott's 2016 season. But there are plenty of other QB who are up and down (mostly down) for a newbie. So to me, drafting a QB is somewhat of a risk. Unless you want to see a player sit idle on your roster for a full season or more.


Then there are RB. Sure Ezekiel Elliott may have tore it up this year. But as fantasy owners, we know this certainly doesn't apply to every RB drafted. In fact, here are ALL the RB drafted in 2016 after Elliott through round 5:

Player / Round
Derrick Henry 2 (45)
Kenyan Drake 3 (73)
C.J. Prosise 3 (90)
Tyler Ervin 4 (119)
Kenneth Dixon 4 (134)
Devontae Booker 4 (136)
Deandre Washington 5 (143)
Paul Perkins 5 (149)
Jordan Howard 5 (150)
Wendell Smallwood 5 (153)
Jonathan Williams 5 (156)
Alex Collins 5 (171)​

As you can see, the potential may be there, but arguably, of this group Jordan Howard is the only one paying weekly dividends to fantasy owners at this point. The rest are still wait-and-see. I don't like those odds.

And let's not forget that the shelf-life of RB is short. Unless they are a stud. According to Statista, the average career of an NFL RB is 2.57 years. That's the shortest of all NFL careers. Which also means that if you draft a rookie RB and he fails to start or become the starter by the end of the season, chances are, he will be yet another sporadic or idle player taking up valuable space on your roster.


Which brings us to WR. (Yes, I'm purposely ignoring the TE position.) In the pass-happy NFL, they seem to be the player to draft. But not if you look at the mostly-pathetic group of WR drafted in 2016:

Player / Round
Corey Coleman 1 (15)
Will Fuller 1 (21)
Josh Doctson 1 (22)
Laquon Treadwell 1 (23)
Sterling Shepard 2 (40)
Michael Thomas 2 (47)
Tyler Boyd 2 (55)
Braxton Miller 3 (85)
Leonte Carroo 3 (86)
Chris Moore 4 (107)
Malcolm Mitchell 4 (112)
Ricardo Louis 4 (114)
Pharoh Cooper 4 (117)
Demarcus Robinson 4 (126)
Seth Devalve 4 (138)
Tajae Sharpe 5 (140)
Jordan Payton 5 (154)
Trevor Davis 5 (163)
Tyreek Hill 5 (165)
Rashard Higgins 5 (172)​

Again... No idea. And I get that you need to look at everything when deciding. You might consider the offense. Potential usage. The incumbent players. But that's still no guarantee.

Maybe I should just trade all of my picks for veterans?

I welcome your views. Please share.

 

[obxyankeefan]

After three years in one dynasty I am still looking for RBs.

I tend to get good WRs and use a spot for a rookie QB (hoping to hit), but good RBs are hard to come by.

 

[broncosmitty]

RBs are going to be more coveted in Dynasty than normal redrafts imo.

FWIW, I drafted Drake in Round 1 of MBBRL dynasty this past draft. And was not at all disappointed about it. (Already had Ajayi). Would not have even though of drafting him period in a redraft. Also took Shepard in the first round of that draft and another two dynasty drafts.

QBs tend to slip in my expierience with dynasty. But I don't recommend waiting to find value Ina dynasty draft. Know your targets coming in, and go for them when you have the opportunity. (Shepard and Bossa being my targets this past draft.)

IDP Dynasty Id recommend that even more so.

 

[broncosmitty]

Draft Pick value is going to be very low unless it's a top 1-2-3 pick.

I don't think it a bad idea to deal picks for players. But I think you can get better value doing it during the season.

 

[Stomp]

For me i usually try to hit need in the first(usually RB), then go bpa for later rounds. trading away the picks is always the best option though if you can find takers.

note i did give up the farm for number 1 overall in one of my leagues this year and am pretty pleased with the results.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Draft Pick value is going to be very low unless it's a top 1-2-3 pick.

I don't think it a bad idea to deal picks for players. But I think you can get better value doing it during the season.

IDK Smitty, I kind of feel the best time to trade a pick is like right before a draft. Suddenly everyone wants to be involved in the draft and those pick start looking better.

 

[broncosmitty]

IDK Smitty, I kind of feel the best time to trade a pick is like right before a draft. Suddenly everyone wants to be involved in the draft and those pick start looking better.

If you can find a good spot in the draft and a partner, you're prolly right. lot depends on the size of the bench and if it's IDP too.

If I did know either, I've forgotten.

 

[tlance]

Joe, you would want to trade all your rookie picks for vets

Seriously though, you are always best served by drafting talent and situation. Obviously that is impossible to do until we see how the NFL draft pans out, but I still think some of the rookies with talent (Henry, Coleman, Fuller) will produce in the future once their situation improves. I would always draft talent first and take the long term approach on guys like Henry. You just have to be patient!

 

[ehb5]

If you just want 2 simple rules that I think would lead you to making pretty solid picks.

1. Don't draft a QB in the first round of a rookie draft
2. Take the highest drafted (in the nfl draft) skill player available.

The nfl can evaluate these players better than we can. Obviously there are other considerations like situation or your personal opinion on a player but this keeps it simple. RBs v WRs I don't think is too important in dynasty. RBs may be harder to find especially in a league like D2 as they're in high demand but WRs are less likely to be injured and tend to have longer careers.

If you want specifics for this draft class I could go into that too, but it might not be too helpful until after the nfl draft anyways when we can see where and when these players are drafted.

 

[ehb5]

And if you just wana trade me your D2 picks that's cool too

(Relatedly, I could also go into more detail on how I feel rookie picks should be valued in trades if you want)