WAR says Carlos Gomez is better than Miguel Cabrera and Griffey in his prime

[SportsChic]

We differ on some views, but it has never come to insults and bitchy posts between us. That is how adults conduct themselves.

Crack me up!


Who shot the 1st shot over the vow? Not me

 

[SportsChic]

Way to perpetuate the stereotype.

No stereotype.

Thin skin people here live 40 miles out of the city and pay a ton in gas to just drive back in for work

 

[romeo212000]

Crack me up!


Who shot the 1st shot over the vow? Not me

It's bow, not vow. And talk about thin skinned.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

i think i am going to start a thread... who is cooler sterling archer or dos equis guy...

 

[SportsChic]

It's bow, not vow. And talk about thin skinned.

Keystroke error!

Pirates of the Caribbean fan!

 

[SportsChic]

i think i am going to start a thread... who is cooler sterling archer or dos equis guy...

Vote for stay thirsty my friends.

 

[romeo212000]

i think i am going to start a thread... who is cooler sterling archer or dos equis guy...

Archer, and its not even close. Ill look for it in the water cooler.

 

[JR Hart]

The countless Stats that show that the Average SS hits worse than the average RF?

You have a SS and RF of equal offensive production. The SS is more Valuable on offense. Because replacement level RF hits better than replacement level SS. Scarcity effects Value of things..ya know.

It'll be easier for me to find a good Hitting RF to complement my great hitting SS...than it will be to find a good hitting SS to complement my great hitting RF...

Yea, but HOW MUCH worse? That's the rub. it's all a guessing game. Then throw in worthless defensive stats and WAR has no value. It's an ATTEMPT to put all factors into one tidy little stat and it falls fall short of that attempt.

If we are going to give positional difference, we should have an EXCACT measurement as to what that difference is.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Yea, but HOW MUCH worse? That's the rub. it's all a guessing game. Then throw in worthless defensive stats and WAR has no value. It's an ATTEMPT to put all factors into one tidy little stat and it falls fall short of that attempt.

If we are going to give positional difference, we should have an EXCACT measurement as to what that difference is.

In 2013? By a lot...

Right fielders in 2013 have the following:
-87% more HRs than SS
-29% more RBIs than SS
-20% more runs
-20% more total bases
-14 points better in AVG
-88 points better in OPS

 

[JR Hart]

In 2013? By a lot...

Right fielders in 2013 have the following:
-87% more HRs than SS
-29% more RBIs than SS
-20% more runs
-20% more total bases
-14 points better in AVG
-88 points better in OPS

That's nice now throw in fielding for positional difference and then throw in the fielding stats.

Look I actually appreciate he attempt to quantify it into one stat. As long as the WARrriors understand that it's an attempt, many don't!

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have said in many threads about statistics that we get blinded by the results of a stat... If we like the results then we dont care how it was calculated or how it is intended... Almost none of us know how war is calculated, and even the ones who do have to explain which WAR they are using... Just because the result is pretty does not mean it is a logical or well calculated statistic...

All statistics with replacements or adjustments(ball park or team) are automatically not great statistics, even though they attempt to do so much more... these stats are still way to arbitrary...

 

[Darkstone42]

WAR typically aligns a great deal better with the side it's better at assessing, which is the offense. Since most baseball people consider offense to be more important (as long as the defense is passable), WAR is generally a reasonably trustworthy stat.

It aligns well with advanced hitting metrics like wOBA and wRC+, which align especially well with OBP, OPS, and ISO, which tend to align well with each other. If you want to predict regressions, OBP aligns with BA, which aligns with BABIP, which tends to align with xBABIP, which is calculated from batted ball profiles. The level of agreement between these predictions and reality is generally, and for most players, remarkably accurate, which lends credence to a stat like WAR.

There is an admitted large variance in WAR, but most of it comes from UZR, which is still a work in progress, especially for catchers. But even UZR often aligns at least fairly well with the "eyeball test," though its precision is certainly less reliable.

But most stat guys don't think WAR is the end-all stat. It is a good first approximation, though, from which a deeper assessment though the eyeball test and stats can give a pretty reasonable "best players" list.

 

[navamind]

WAR typically aligns a great deal better with the side it's better at assessing, which is the offense. Since most baseball people consider offense to be more important (as long as the defense is passable), WAR is generally a reasonably trustworthy stat.

It aligns well with advanced hitting metrics like wOBA and wRC+, which align especially well with OBP, OPS, and ISO, which tend to align well with each other. If you want to predict regressions, OBP aligns with BA, which aligns with BABIP, which tends to align with xBABIP, which is calculated from batted ball profiles. The level of agreement between these predictions and reality is generally, and for most players, remarkably accurate, which lends credence to a stat like WAR.

There is an admitted large variance in WAR, but most of it comes from UZR, which is still a work in progress, especially for catchers. But even UZR often aligns at least fairly well with the "eyeball test," though its precision is certainly less reliable.

But most stat guys don't think WAR is the end-all stat. It is a good first approximation, though, from which a deeper assessment though the eyeball test and stats can give a pretty reasonable "best players" list.

Well put.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

I like WAR, but have always felt it didn't appropriately weight the different variables that comprise the formula. While defense and baserunning are certainly important to a players overall value (very important), they're simply not as important as offense. Look at Andrelton Simmons. His dWAR completely skews his overall WAR. I'm not suggesting he's not a valuable player, but he's a really bad hitter, and shouldn't be ranked among the top overall shortstops. If WAR appropriately weighted defense in the formula, he'd still be valuable, but not to the degree that raw dWAR would lead you to believe.

There should be a variable before Offensive Runs and Defensive Runs etc. which weight the formula based on the real-world value of the different aspects of the game.

That said, it's still better than many traditional stats and at least attempts to quantify a player's overall value into one number. I respect the attempt.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Cabrera is on pace for one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a hitter...even better than his triple crown year.

Yet according to WAR...Carlos Gomez and even Manny Machado are having better seasons and are more valuable to the team than Cabrera is

Now I understand that Machado and Gomez are excellent fielders and Cabrera isn't exactly Adrian Beltre...but how can you take Carlos Gomez or Manny Machado over Miguel Cabrera

Fielding is an important aspect of baseball...but it doesn't nearly have the same effect as defense in the NBA or defense in football.

Here are the stat lines for the three players

Cabrera: .368 avg .457 obp .679 slug...28 hrs 90 rbis 67 runs 3 sb
Machado: .312 avg .341 obp .471 slug...6 hr 42 rbi 53 runs 6 sb
Gomez: .312 avg ..353 obp .559 slug...13 hr 41 rbi 49 runs 20 sb

Cabrera more than doubles Gomez's hr and rbi...quadruples Machado's hr and more than doubles his rbi

Look, I understand these guys are amazing with the gloves and from time to time their defense saves some runs...but are they saving 80-90 runs a year? Cause that's how many more runs Cabrera is on pace to drive in than Machado and Gomez

...also Gomez is on pace for a higher WAR than Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime when he was the best defensive center fielder in the game and hit 50-56 hrs and drove in 140-150 rbi while hitting for avg

Carlos Gomez >>>> Miguel Cabrera/Ken Griffey Jr in his prime...really though? lol something is wrong with WAR

Isn't it possible that Gomez is simply having a career year and everything is going right for him? His numbers are great, and he's always been a fantastic baserunner and defender. It's all come together for him this year. So just because his name doesn't carry the cache of Junior doesn't mean he's not capable of having a season comparable to a prime Griffey in terms of overall value. Doesn't mean he's a better player, just that he's having an incredible individual season. Lots of guys have had anomalous career years out of nowhere. His offensive numbers have been steadily improving the last few years. Maybe he's coming into his own and hitting his prime at the same time. It's surprising, but nothing new, and he'll obviously have to prove he can maintain it.

I think you're overreacting. It's a half-season's worth of a single statistic. WAR can go up and down. It's not fixed upward. Gomez could easily regress in the 2nd half and then your point is gone.

And are you really going to compare RBI for a leadoff hitter to the best hitter in baseball???

 

[navamind]

Isn't it possible that Gomez is simply having a career year and everything is going right for him? His numbers are great, and he's always been a fantastic baserunner and defender. It's all come together for him this year. So just because his name doesn't carry the cache of Junior doesn't mean he's not capable of having a season comparable to a prime Griffey in terms of overall value. Doesn't mean he's a better player, just that he's having an incredible individual season. Lots of guys have had anomalous career years out of nowhere. His offensive numbers have been steadily improving the last few years. Maybe he's coming into his own and hitting his prime at the same time. It's surprising, but nothing new, and he'll obviously have to prove he can maintain it.

I think you're overreacting. It's a half-season's worth of a single statistic. WAR can go up and down. It's not fixed upward. Gomez could easily regress in the 2nd half and then your point is gone.

And are you really going to compare RBI for a leadoff hitter to the best hitter in baseball???

Gomez was hitting for power last year too (he had an ISO of .203).

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Also, Griffey was only best defensive CF in baseball for a year or two between the end of Devon White's prime and the beginning of Andruw Jones's career. Kenny Lofton was also as good as Griffey.

And the thing that made Griffey a special player is that he did it every year. Gomez will have to prove he can. But even if he doesn't, that doesn't preclude him from having one excellent season.