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WAR says Carlos Gomez is better than Miguel Cabrera and Griffey in his prime

StanMarsh51

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Yes, but it automatically values better hitters from weaker positions as better... If troy tulowitzki was a bad fielder why should his SS elligibility be the reason why he is better than Prince fielder?? I think for offense you should be measured only on your offense... Players change positions all the time to fit a team... I am not saying defense is not important... but it is not important when we talk about offense...

But those positions tend to be 'weaker' partly because they're more demanding to play... on average, a C or SS will probably have more fatigue/wear and tear from their playing position than say a 1B or LF would, which would then likely have an effect on offensive numbers. And as those positions such as C or SS are more demanding to play, WAR factors that in (which I think makes sense).

I mean, if Prince Fielder were a catcher, would you bet on him putting up as good #'s as he is as 1B/DH? I know we're talking hypotheticals, but I do think some adjustment is needed because of that.
 
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But those positions tend to be 'weaker' partly because they're more demanding to play... on average, a C or SS will probably have more fatigue/wear and tear from their playing position than say a 1B or LF would, which would then likely have an effect on offensive numbers. And as those positions such as C or SS are more demanding to play, WAR factors that in (which I think makes sense).

I mean, if Prince Fielder were a catcher, would you bet on him putting up as good #'s as he is as 1B/DH? I know we're talking hypotheticals, but I do think some adjustment is needed because of that.

Beyond that, it's uncommon to find a guy with a first-base body type being capable of even playing short stop, for example, defensively.
 

JR Hart

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War tries to take positional difference into account. It tries to quantify defense. It gives a reasonable rating of things, for what data goes in to it. The problem is that we can't prove that SS is whatever % harder than 1B and we really can't quantify defense.

My biggest problem with WAR is that people think that it is the final decider of player ratings. There is a lot to account for and WAR can't accurately do it. Sometimes we just have to look at all the factors and make a subjective choice. I know that really bothers some people, who want to measure everything with math.
 

Lord Scalious

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War tries to take positional difference into account. It tries to quantify defense. It gives a reasonable rating of things, for what data goes in to it. The problem is that we can't prove that SS is whatever % harder than 1B and we really can't quantify defense.

My biggest problem with WAR is that people think that it is the final decider of player ratings. There is a lot to account for and WAR can't accurately do it. Sometimes we just have to look at all the factors and make a subjective choice. I know that really bothers some people, who want to measure everything with math.

Its irrelevant how difficult it is. WAR is a Metric of how much value a player brings to his team... Hitting a Triple is usually more difficult than hitting a Homer for most players. Home Runs still count more though...

Defensive Metrics are flawed..but it has nothing to do with degree of Difficulty.
 

JR Hart

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Its irrelevant how difficult it is. WAR is a Metric of how much value a player brings to his team... Hitting a Triple is usually more difficult than hitting a Homer for most players. Home Runs still count more though...

Defensive Metrics are flawed..but it has nothing to do with degree of Difficulty.

Really?

So do tell. how much more valuable is a shortstop than a right fielder? This type of objective analysis is then figured into the formula? How do we really know? Then that determination is used to figure "value" And then the WARriors say it's objective????

it's a croc

:ss:
 
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Really?

So do tell. how much more valuable is a shortstop than a right fielder? This type of objective analysis is then figured into the formula? How do we really know? Then that determination is used to figure "value" And then the WARriors say it's objective????

it's a croc

:ss:

It takes it into account not by guessing some constant, but by comparing players of the same position directly. How many great hitters play short stop? How many play first base? Obviously a short stop with a slash line of .300/.400/.500 is more valuable relative to other short stops than a first baseman with the same slash line is relative to other first basemen. Defensive positional difficulties are largely accounted for by simply looking at the raw offensive production for an average player at each position. The eyeball test tells you that short stop is tougher than first base defensively. The average offensive production of short stops relative to first basemen indicates statistically the difference in specific skill sets inherent in each position, and that is quantifiable.

A team of Cabrera, Fielder, Votto, Goldschmidt, Davis, Ortiz, Posey, and Trout would be unbelievably productive offensively.But you have three first basemen, a DH, a catcher, an outfielder, and a (barely) third baseman in that set. You'd knock the cover off the ball, sure, but you couldn't stop the other team from scoring.

Since each position is valuable in its own way, WAR must account for the differences in skill sets. Normalizing to typical production at each position is a good way of doing that. That's why WAR measures the wins a player contributes versus a replacement player at his position.
 

Lord Scalious

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Really?

So do tell. how much more valuable is a shortstop than a right fielder? This type of objective analysis is then figured into the formula? How do we really know? Then that determination is used to figure "value" And then the WARriors say it's objective????

it's a croc

:ss:

The countless Stats that show that the Average SS hits worse than the average RF?

You have a SS and RF of equal offensive production. The SS is more Valuable on offense. Because replacement level RF hits better than replacement level SS. Scarcity effects Value of things..ya know.

It'll be easier for me to find a good Hitting RF to complement my great hitting SS...than it will be to find a good hitting SS to complement my great hitting RF...
 

navamind

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Defensive metrics aren't very reliable through ~90 games. He's a good defender, but I'm not buying him saving about 24 runs defensively in 85 games.
 

Down38st8

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Griffey was a center fielder too...and arguably one of the best of all time both defensively and offensively...yet Carlos Gomez is on pace for a higher WAR than Griffey's career best WAR...really baffles me how it works

1st off...no he's not, currently gomez has a 5.9 WAR for the season. Griffey "during his prime" regularly threatened 10.

WAR is VERY UZR and OPS+ dependent, and then factor against a league average replacement level.

Think of when Griffey was "in his prime" late 90's...peak of the steroid offensive explosion.

Let's take Griffey's best year WAR wise, 1996...and compare

Gomez has a .893 OPS as of this morning. Nothing to sneeze at...

Griffey had a 1.025 OPS..nothing short of spectacular.

However, Griffey's OPS was compared to a league OPS of .795, where Gomez is up against a .703 league average OPS.

CF in 1996? .771
CF in 2013: .713

So...what WAR is saying about these 2 players, isn't so much an indictment of Griffey...but an indictment of Gomez's competition...

I'm not a fan of the defensive component for WAR (UZR) or any of the available advanced defensive metrics...Check the oWAR rates for each...

1996 Griffey was worth 6.9 wins, just on offense.

Gomez? 3.1 wins...

Now, this is a cumulative stat so that's 3.1 in 91 team games....over 162 he's on pace for 5.5 wins....which when compared to Griffey vs. the competition he played against? Looks about right to me...Griffey better..but as much as you'd think based on a raw comparison of each player...


Hope this helps shed some light on the formula used in War...it's got it's flaws, mainly with the defensive component, but I like the basic logic, which is to compare a player vs. the league average he played against to give us a rough estimation how much better a player was against said competition.
 

SportsChic

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OP, all of this is crazy talk from the writer you quoted.

Yes Gomez is having a good season in 2013, but any comparison should be talk about after 4 more season with Gomez keeping up theses numbers he is putting up.

Domenic Brown also.
 

romeo212000

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OP, all of this is crazy talk from the writer you quoted.

Yes Gomez is having a good season in 2013, but any comparison should be talk about after 4 more season with Gomez keeping up theses numbers he is putting up.

Domenic Brown also.

Congratulations on missing the point entirely.
 

MilkSpiller22

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sterling archer is not gay... sorry sportschic, but that is sacreligious...
 

MilkSpiller22

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i tend to be on the opposite side of romeo on most arguments, but i dont have a problem with his man crush with sterling archer... Sterling archer is top 10 coolest male persona on tv... Probably second after the most interesting man in the world from the dos equis comercials...
 

romeo212000

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Shut the hell up.

Read the "are you drunk" thing also and looking at your Avi, you are gay :)

Not if Romeo has an man crush on a cartoon guy ;)

Boy, you're just the shining example of class and intelligence aren't you? I haven't seen one quality post from you yet. Just a bunch of personal insults and ignorance. Enjoy your stay. However short it might be.
 

SportsChic

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i tend to be on the opposite side of romeo on most arguments, but i dont have a problem with his man crush with sterling archer... Sterling archer is top 10 coolest male persona on tv... Probably second after the most interesting man in the world from the dos equis comercials...

Crack me up!
 

romeo212000

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i tend to be on the opposite side of romeo on most arguments, but i dont have a problem with his man crush with sterling archer... Sterling archer is top 10 coolest male persona on tv... Probably second after the most interesting man in the world from the dos equis comercials...

We differ on some views, but it has never come to insults and bitchy posts between us. That is how adults conduct themselves.
 

SportsChic

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Boy, you're just the shining example of class and intelligence aren't you? I haven't seen one quality post from you yet. Just a bunch of personal insults and ignorance. Enjoy your stay. However short it might be.

:)

Need that type of attitude living in Chicago ;)
 

romeo212000

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:)

Need that type of attitude living in Chicago ;)

Way to perpetuate the stereotype. I don't care where you live, it's never cool to be an asshole just to be an asshole.
 
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