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Reverend Jim
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We’re one month in, 1/6th of the way through the season. It is a small sample size to judge a player by some will say, and this argument holds some weight. But now is the time you should be deciding on those slumping players that are cluttering up your roster. I’m not talking about players like Matt Kemp who got off to a slow start probably due to his shoulder surgery. I’m not talking about any player you may have drafted with your first 10 or 12 picks. Those players were drafted there for a reason and deserve a longer leash. I’m talking about your later picks, those speculative risk reward type players, those post hype sleepers, those aging players coming off an injury you hope will return to form, and those late round picks you were hoping would come around.
The list of players I could list here is large, so I’m going to start with some that have been on my teams as well as a few others that I’ve seen people question here and on other boards. I’ll also be breaking this into 2 parts, dealing with the hitters first and the pitchers at a later time. All players are owned in over 50% of leagues, and it boggles my mind as to why. Feel free to agree or disagree below, or add your own player if he was not one of the ones listed here. Lets begin (ownership in parenthesis)
Note: take much of this with a grain of salt if you play in a AL or NL only league, or in any league larger than 12 teams as leagues like this have very little talent left on the waiver wire. In these cases, use your own discretion.
Andrelton Simmons (72% CBS – 42% Yahoo) Here is a good example of a player that is better for baseball than fantasy. He’s an excellent fielder which is the reason Atlanta handed him the job. He also showed the ability to hit for average in the minors giving him a spot in the top of the order. He doesn’t strikeout much, but he doesn’t walk much either so his success is tied to his ability to hit for average. Beyond that he doesn’t do much else. He has the ability to steal 25 to 30 bases annually, but his success rate in the minors indicates he needs to improve here or that green light he gets on the base paths will be replaced with a yellow one taking away his biggest asset. He has zero power and hitting at the top of the lineup (or at the bottom) isn’t going to help him generate many RBI chances. His batting average is currently .225 and that’s not going to cut it hitting on top, which could mean more at bats near the back end of the lineup resulting in less runs.
He was taken near the back end of the draft for many teams, and if he’s still in your lineup or on your team, you might want to start thinking about other options. In 10 team leagues he should not be on your team. In 12 team leagues he should only be on your roster if you play with a MI slot or need an injury fill in, otherwise he’s waiver fodder.
Adam Dunn (67% CBS – 62% Yahoo) For years Dunn has been known for 3 things, his 40 HR power, his incredible strikeout numbers and a batting average that can kill you most weeks in H2H. Some years you got lucky and got the Dunn that hit for a .260 batting average and were happy to have him on your team, and the last time that happened was in 2010. The two years following that were disastrous. His strikeout rate has actually gotten worse the past 2 years (.159 & .204), his OBP which was usually a dependable .375 (give or take) has been closer to .300 (.200 currently) and this year he’s taken a new step backwards as his BB have dropped as well. Adam Dunn has had some bad years but he usually rebounded the following year, but he’s currently on a 3 year tread in the wrong direction and at 33 years old, you have to wonder if there is any correcting the problem.
Dunn qualifies for first base, but the problem with that is there are several dozen players that do as well that should be on your team first. If there is someone in your league (as there is in one of mine) who is a Dunn believer and is willing to take him off your hands for a semi-useful part, move quickly and don’t look back. If you can’t get someone to take him from you, and guys like Chris Carter, Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis are available (hell even Chris Young is a better option), grab one of them over Dunn.
Victor Martinez (84% CBS – 89% Yahoo) Martinez used to be the gold standard for the catcher position giving solid power numbers with a batting average in the .300 range. A torn ACL took him out of action for 2012, and by doing so took away his catcher eligibility in some leagues. Detroit has said he won’t catch this season so for those in leagues where he does not qualify for catcher his value is cut in half. What the people who drafted him were hoping and the question people have to ask is, how much does the former catcher turned DH have left at age 34 after taking the year off to recover. Currently Martinez is batting .213 with zero HRs. For a catcher that is bad given some of the options out there, but for a DH that’s unacceptable. That .212 is up from .187 thanks in part to a small 5-14 streak over his last 3 games, but he had back to back multi hit games in the middle of April as well with little else in between.
I believe the injury culminated with the time off and his age will make 2013 a bad year for Martinez owners. If you play in a 10 or 12 team league that only uses one catcher and you have another catcher, I don’t see a need to hold onto V-Mart. 2 catcher leagues are a different story, but I might look to trade him if I was in a league like this one. And if you’re in a league where he does not qualify at catcher, cut your losses now. Best case scenario is he gets things figured out and is an asset after the all-star break. If you release him, just keep an eye on how he’s progressing.
Dan Uggla (89% CBS – 70% Yahoo). Dan Uggla is the Adam Dunn of second basemen. Uggla was never known for his batting average, it was all about the 30+ HR power from a second baseman with him. Well his average has been getting worse the past 2 years as it’s gone from .233 to .220 to this years all time low of .174. His walks will fluctuate anywhere between 60 & 90 so there is no predicting his OBP, but his K’s continue to go up with his age (currently 33). He’s at that age where players usually experience a drop off in production (and occasionally fall off a cliff). Last year was the first time he did not reach 30 homers since 2007, he didn’t even get to 20. Maybe it was an off year or maybe it was the start of something bigger.
Now unlike the players above, I would recommend dropping Uggla, a second baseman that can hit 20 bombs and get you 70 plus runs & RBI’s still has some value. What I would recommend is that you trade him (most likely in a package) for an upgrade at second, or if you have another player for second you’re happy with for an upgrade at another position. He will have his weeks where he goes off and you will curse, but for the most part you will be happy to have this hacker off your team.
Ichiro Suzuki (68% CBS – 55% Yahoo) The name Ichiro used to mean a .300 batting average, 40 steals (plus or minus) and a boatload of runs. While he didn’t show it with his average, 2009 was the start of his decline. This was the first year he failed to score 100 and get at least 30 stolen bases. The speed returned in 2010 but the runs did not. Maybe the team surrounding him was the cause of this, but he’s never had a strong cast round him in Seattle. 2011 was his third year of subpar run production (well subpar for Ichiro) and his fell below .300 for the first time in the majors (.272). Things got even worse in 2012 as he was on pace to hit all time lows in runs, stolen bases and batting average. A trade to the Yankees gave Ichiro new life as he batted over .300 with his new team and tallied almost as many stolen bases as he did with Seattle in half the at bats. Enter 2013, Ichiro is now 39 years old, is batting .243 and has 1 stolen base to his name.
At his age it’s hard to imagine a resurgence as far as speed goes. He’s no longer a top of the order guy, shifting between 6th & 7th so runs will be harder to come by even on the Yankees. With a low run total, limited stolen bases and a subpar average, Ichiro isn’t any better (and or worse) than some of the players available on waivers (Drew Stubbs is doing slightly better and owned in only 13% of Yahoo leagues – 22% in CBS). If you are an Ichiro owner, it’s time to stop living in the past. The Ichiro we all knew and loved from years ago isn’t coming back and the only reason he should be on your roster in 10 or 12 team leagues is sentimental value.
The list of players I could list here is large, so I’m going to start with some that have been on my teams as well as a few others that I’ve seen people question here and on other boards. I’ll also be breaking this into 2 parts, dealing with the hitters first and the pitchers at a later time. All players are owned in over 50% of leagues, and it boggles my mind as to why. Feel free to agree or disagree below, or add your own player if he was not one of the ones listed here. Lets begin (ownership in parenthesis)
Note: take much of this with a grain of salt if you play in a AL or NL only league, or in any league larger than 12 teams as leagues like this have very little talent left on the waiver wire. In these cases, use your own discretion.
Andrelton Simmons (72% CBS – 42% Yahoo) Here is a good example of a player that is better for baseball than fantasy. He’s an excellent fielder which is the reason Atlanta handed him the job. He also showed the ability to hit for average in the minors giving him a spot in the top of the order. He doesn’t strikeout much, but he doesn’t walk much either so his success is tied to his ability to hit for average. Beyond that he doesn’t do much else. He has the ability to steal 25 to 30 bases annually, but his success rate in the minors indicates he needs to improve here or that green light he gets on the base paths will be replaced with a yellow one taking away his biggest asset. He has zero power and hitting at the top of the lineup (or at the bottom) isn’t going to help him generate many RBI chances. His batting average is currently .225 and that’s not going to cut it hitting on top, which could mean more at bats near the back end of the lineup resulting in less runs.
He was taken near the back end of the draft for many teams, and if he’s still in your lineup or on your team, you might want to start thinking about other options. In 10 team leagues he should not be on your team. In 12 team leagues he should only be on your roster if you play with a MI slot or need an injury fill in, otherwise he’s waiver fodder.
Adam Dunn (67% CBS – 62% Yahoo) For years Dunn has been known for 3 things, his 40 HR power, his incredible strikeout numbers and a batting average that can kill you most weeks in H2H. Some years you got lucky and got the Dunn that hit for a .260 batting average and were happy to have him on your team, and the last time that happened was in 2010. The two years following that were disastrous. His strikeout rate has actually gotten worse the past 2 years (.159 & .204), his OBP which was usually a dependable .375 (give or take) has been closer to .300 (.200 currently) and this year he’s taken a new step backwards as his BB have dropped as well. Adam Dunn has had some bad years but he usually rebounded the following year, but he’s currently on a 3 year tread in the wrong direction and at 33 years old, you have to wonder if there is any correcting the problem.
Dunn qualifies for first base, but the problem with that is there are several dozen players that do as well that should be on your team first. If there is someone in your league (as there is in one of mine) who is a Dunn believer and is willing to take him off your hands for a semi-useful part, move quickly and don’t look back. If you can’t get someone to take him from you, and guys like Chris Carter, Chris Denorfia or Rajai Davis are available (hell even Chris Young is a better option), grab one of them over Dunn.
Victor Martinez (84% CBS – 89% Yahoo) Martinez used to be the gold standard for the catcher position giving solid power numbers with a batting average in the .300 range. A torn ACL took him out of action for 2012, and by doing so took away his catcher eligibility in some leagues. Detroit has said he won’t catch this season so for those in leagues where he does not qualify for catcher his value is cut in half. What the people who drafted him were hoping and the question people have to ask is, how much does the former catcher turned DH have left at age 34 after taking the year off to recover. Currently Martinez is batting .213 with zero HRs. For a catcher that is bad given some of the options out there, but for a DH that’s unacceptable. That .212 is up from .187 thanks in part to a small 5-14 streak over his last 3 games, but he had back to back multi hit games in the middle of April as well with little else in between.
I believe the injury culminated with the time off and his age will make 2013 a bad year for Martinez owners. If you play in a 10 or 12 team league that only uses one catcher and you have another catcher, I don’t see a need to hold onto V-Mart. 2 catcher leagues are a different story, but I might look to trade him if I was in a league like this one. And if you’re in a league where he does not qualify at catcher, cut your losses now. Best case scenario is he gets things figured out and is an asset after the all-star break. If you release him, just keep an eye on how he’s progressing.
Dan Uggla (89% CBS – 70% Yahoo). Dan Uggla is the Adam Dunn of second basemen. Uggla was never known for his batting average, it was all about the 30+ HR power from a second baseman with him. Well his average has been getting worse the past 2 years as it’s gone from .233 to .220 to this years all time low of .174. His walks will fluctuate anywhere between 60 & 90 so there is no predicting his OBP, but his K’s continue to go up with his age (currently 33). He’s at that age where players usually experience a drop off in production (and occasionally fall off a cliff). Last year was the first time he did not reach 30 homers since 2007, he didn’t even get to 20. Maybe it was an off year or maybe it was the start of something bigger.
Now unlike the players above, I would recommend dropping Uggla, a second baseman that can hit 20 bombs and get you 70 plus runs & RBI’s still has some value. What I would recommend is that you trade him (most likely in a package) for an upgrade at second, or if you have another player for second you’re happy with for an upgrade at another position. He will have his weeks where he goes off and you will curse, but for the most part you will be happy to have this hacker off your team.
Ichiro Suzuki (68% CBS – 55% Yahoo) The name Ichiro used to mean a .300 batting average, 40 steals (plus or minus) and a boatload of runs. While he didn’t show it with his average, 2009 was the start of his decline. This was the first year he failed to score 100 and get at least 30 stolen bases. The speed returned in 2010 but the runs did not. Maybe the team surrounding him was the cause of this, but he’s never had a strong cast round him in Seattle. 2011 was his third year of subpar run production (well subpar for Ichiro) and his fell below .300 for the first time in the majors (.272). Things got even worse in 2012 as he was on pace to hit all time lows in runs, stolen bases and batting average. A trade to the Yankees gave Ichiro new life as he batted over .300 with his new team and tallied almost as many stolen bases as he did with Seattle in half the at bats. Enter 2013, Ichiro is now 39 years old, is batting .243 and has 1 stolen base to his name.
At his age it’s hard to imagine a resurgence as far as speed goes. He’s no longer a top of the order guy, shifting between 6th & 7th so runs will be harder to come by even on the Yankees. With a low run total, limited stolen bases and a subpar average, Ichiro isn’t any better (and or worse) than some of the players available on waivers (Drew Stubbs is doing slightly better and owned in only 13% of Yahoo leagues – 22% in CBS). If you are an Ichiro owner, it’s time to stop living in the past. The Ichiro we all knew and loved from years ago isn’t coming back and the only reason he should be on your roster in 10 or 12 team leagues is sentimental value.
