WAR says Carlos Gomez is better than Miguel Cabrera and Griffey in his prime

[Logicallylethal]

Cabrera is on pace for one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a hitter...even better than his triple crown year.

Yet according to WAR...Carlos Gomez and even Manny Machado are having better seasons and are more valuable to the team than Cabrera is

Now I understand that Machado and Gomez are excellent fielders and Cabrera isn't exactly Adrian Beltre...but how can you take Carlos Gomez or Manny Machado over Miguel Cabrera

Fielding is an important aspect of baseball...but it doesn't nearly have the same effect as defense in the NBA or defense in football.

Here are the stat lines for the three players

Cabrera: .368 avg .457 obp .679 slug...28 hrs 90 rbis 67 runs 3 sb
Machado: .312 avg .341 obp .471 slug...6 hr 42 rbi 53 runs 6 sb
Gomez: .312 avg ..353 obp .559 slug...13 hr 41 rbi 49 runs 20 sb

Cabrera more than doubles Gomez's hr and rbi...quadruples Machado's hr and more than doubles his rbi

Look, I understand these guys are amazing with the gloves and from time to time their defense saves some runs...but are they saving 80-90 runs a year? Cause that's how many more runs Cabrera is on pace to drive in than Machado and Gomez

...also Gomez is on pace for a higher WAR than Ken Griffey Jr. in his prime when he was the best defensive center fielder in the game and hit 50-56 hrs and drove in 140-150 rbi while hitting for avg

Carlos Gomez >>>> Miguel Cabrera/Ken Griffey Jr in his prime...really though? lol something is wrong with WAR

 

[bone3421]

remember its wins above replacement........so that tells me there is a lot of pretty good 3rd baseman

and not many solid CF's......imo

 

[Logicallylethal]

remember its wins above replacement........so that tells me there is a lot of pretty good 3rd baseman

and not many solid CF's......imo

Griffey was a center fielder too...and arguably one of the best of all time both defensively and offensively...yet Carlos Gomez is on pace for a higher WAR than Griffey's career best WAR...really baffles me how it works

 

[bone3421]

well go look at the CF's back then probably a solid group as well

 

[Darkstone42]

Bone is probably onto something there. The replacement level player against whom WAR is measured is redefined every season. Third base play has been exceptional this year. Outfield play has been good, but not so excellent across the board. So it seems reasonable to expect the replacement level third baseman earns his team more wins than a replacement level outfielders, so the WAR at those positions is skewed to reflect that.

Now, it seems to me that you are using Baseball Reference for your WAR stat, but I trust Fangraphs more, and they list Cabrera at the top. I like Fangraphs more because they weigh the offensive metrics higher, I believe. At least it certainly seems that way.

 

[Driaz]

There is so much disagreement in the defensive metrics used to calculate this stuff.......Sabermetrics does great at truly breaking down offensive contributions to the game, but they are archaic at best in trying to put a number towards defensive value......That's why I put so little stock into WAR because if the defensive metric employed is flawed (which they all are), the entire number is just a number and nothing to take very seriously....

If I'm a gm, I'll definitely trade you Gomez for Cabrera strait up....

 

[bone3421]

hey driaz....

i sent you a trade in roto

 

[Lord Scalious]

WAR is how they stack up against the rest of the league. Or ya know, the Replacement level.

The offensive Baseline for a Productive hitter was different when Griffey was a CF then now. If Griffey Jr did the exact same thing in 2013? He would have a different WAR than he did back then... That's how it works..

Gomez is also an Elite Base-runner, unlike Miggy (Base Running is a factor in WAR, FYI)


Also, you must be talking about bWar? Because in fWar

Miggy is 5.4
Gomez is 4.7
Machado is 4.1

Which would actually make sense, no?

 

[Driaz]

hey driaz....

i sent you a trade in roto

I'll go take a look....I'm still stubborn headed and think I can get back in the race although you and the commish are so far ahead of the pack.......

 

[romeo212000]

Your problem? You're comparing a CF to a 3b. WAR doesn't work that way.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I still believe that both Offensive war and defensive war should be measured separately... and offensive war should be measured by the offensive replacement and not necessary the same position... How often do players move positions because they are needed elsewhere?? I dont mind combining the 2 at the end, but comparing a certain defensive position in offense does not make sense to me...

 

[romeo212000]

I still believe that both Offensive war and defensive war should be measured separately... and offensive war should be measured by the offensive replacement and not necessary the same position... How often do players move positions because they are needed elsewhere?? I dont mind combining the 2 at the end, but comparing a certain defensive position in offense does not make sense to me...

Why not? You expect much more offensively from your first baseman or corner OF than you do your ss.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Why not? You expect much more offensively from your first baseman or corner OF than you do your ss.

Yes, but it automatically values better hitters from weaker positions as better... If troy tulowitzki was a bad fielder why should his SS elligibility be the reason why he is better than Prince fielder?? I think for offense you should be measured only on your offense... Players change positions all the time to fit a team... I am not saying defense is not important... but it is not important when we talk about offense...

 

[romeo212000]

Yes, but it automatically values better hitters from weaker positions as better... If troy tulowitzki was a bad fielder why should his SS elligibility be the reason why he is better than Prince fielder?? I think for offense you should be measured only on your offense... Players change positions all the time to fit a team... I am not saying defense is not important... but it is not important when we talk about offense...

That's the point though. It's not that he's better than fielder. He's not being compared to fielder. He's being compared to short stops and what is expected of them. WAR is position specific. If tulo were playing first base then he would be beig compared to fielder, but he's not and one has nothing to do with the other.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That's the point though. It's not that he's better than fielder. He's not being compared to fielder. He's being compared to short stops and what is expected of them. WAR is position specific. If tulo were playing first base then he would be beig compared to fielder, but he's not and one has nothing to do with the other.

But thats my point... if he is not being compared to fielder, then how can we claim that he is better due to WAR??

 

[romeo212000]

But thats my point... if he is not being compared to fielder, then how can we claim that he is better due to WAR??

WAR is most valuable when comparing to other players of the same position. It's pretty hard to use WAR to compare a ss to a first baseman as the sole stat. However, it is something that should be considered in context with other stats. If you just let offensive stats stand alone and compared everyone's contributions equally on offense you'd never see a short stop in the hall of fame unless he's wearing pin stripes, in spite of the fact that an elite defensive ss saves more runs than we realize.

Again, different skill sets are required of different players. So it's not fair to make them compete in the exact same stats.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

WAR is most valuable when comparing to other players of the same position. It's pretty hard to use WAR to compare a ss to a first baseman as the sole stat. However, it is something that should be considered in context with other stats. If you just let offensive stats stand alone and compared everyone's contributions equally on offense you'd never see a short stop in the hall of fame unless he's wearing pin stripes, in spite of the fact that an elite defensive ss saves more runs than we realize.

Again, different skill sets are required of different players. So it's not fair to make them compete in the exact same stats.

Romeo, it sounds like you are confused about what WAR is intended for... since it is intended to compare all players of all positions... it has a built in weight to increase the importance of particular defensive posiitions...

This is how i would measure WAR. oWAR+ dWAR+ rank of position
oWAR= compared with all offensive hitters and the replacement numbers are the same for all players(range of points 0-4)
dWAR= If you are a SS then it is compared with all SS, if you are a 1B it is compared to all 1B.
(range of points(0-3.5)
rank of position= position strength. SS is worth more than 1B. All first baseman get the same value as eachother... all SS get the same value as eachother...
(range of points 1-2)
Max WAR=9.5 min WAR=1

 

[romeo212000]

Romeo, it sounds like you are confused about what WAR is intended for... since it is intended to compare all players of all positions... it has a built in weight to increase the importance of particular defensive posiitions...

This is how i would measure WAR. oWAR+ dWAR+ rank of position
oWAR= compared with all offensive hitters and the replacement numbers are the same for all players(range of points 0-4)
dWAR= If you are a SS then it is compared with all SS, if you are a 1B it is compared to all 1B.
(range of points(0-3.5)
rank of position= position strength. SS is worth more than 1B. All first baseman get the same value as eachother... all SS get the same value as eachother...
(range of points 1-2)
Max WAR=9.5 min WAR=1

I think we might be missing each others points, or I'm just not communicating mine well enough. I understand the purpose of WAR and I understand that it's weighted. I guess what I'm saying is it is unfair to hold a ss to te standards of a first baseman when it comes to offensive expectations, and that if two players are going to be compared from different positions considerations have to be taken. I know WAR makes what I feel is a pretty decent attempt at that.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think we might be missing each others points, or I'm just not communicating mine well enough. I understand the purpose of WAR and I understand that it's weighted. I guess what I'm saying is it is unfair to hold a ss to te standards of a first baseman when it comes to offensive expectations, and that if two players are going to be compared from different positions considerations have to be taken. I know WAR makes what I feel is a pretty decent attempt at that.

Now, i am lost then as well... lol

 

[Darkstone42]

I think the catcher position is the best argument to make in favor of position weights in WAR.

Many baseball people (myself included) regard the catcher as the most important position player on the field. Why? Because a good catcher makes his pitcher better (calling a good game, framing pitches, blocking strikeout pitches in the dirt, etc.) and keeps runners honest on the bases, the effect of which is multi-fold: outs are generated when runners are thrown out, so a good defensive catcher can generate more outs, eliminate more baserunners, and, as a consequence, make stolen bases less commonly attempted, which helps the pitcher focus on the batter and keeps baserunners from stretching singles into doubles on later pitches.

Because of this, it's very hard for a bad defensive catcher to stick, even if he has a good bat, see Ryan Doumit and (perhaps soon) Carlos Santana.

So what happens when you have a good defensive catcher who can also hit, even at an average rate (not positionally, but leaguewide)? You have one of the most valuable players in the league.

Russell Martin, for example, is a pretty league average hitter. But because he's a league average hitter who plays the most important defensive position at an elite defensive level as well, he becomes an extremely valuable player to his team (perhaps the most valuable free agent acquisition of this past offseason, in fact). Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, and Joe Mauer (when healthy) are also very good to elite offensive players. This makes them three of the most valuable players in the game, with Molina and Posey arguably the most important players on their respective, championship-calibre teams (this season's Giants' performance notwithstanding). You put a talented team around elite offensive and defensive catchers like Posey and Molina, and it's no mystery which the Giants and Cardinals seem to find themselves winning World Series titles at a relatively torrid pace.

The catcher is the most extreme case, but I think it strong illustrates the value of WAR's positional scaling to truly evaluating the relative value of players at different positions. Since first base and right field are generally "easier" positions to play defensively, you can hide a weak defender with a strong bat at one of those spots, ergo you must weight those positions lower in terms of the overall value and quality of a player at one of those spots than you do a shortstop or catcher, for example.