Treff's biggest Busts of 2015

[DALLAScornhusker]

Good list Treff.
I'd like to offer another reason against drafting Murray/Mathews high. Its too soon to say definitively what role Tebow will have with that team, but you can sense that short yardage will be his domain. He may wrest away some scoring opportunities from the RBs. So keep an eye on 1.) if Tebow makes the team and 2.) is active on gamedays.

 

[TREFF]

Good list Treff.
I'd like to offer another reason against drafting Murray/Mathews high. Its too soon to say definitively what role Tebow will have with that team, but you can sense that short yardage will be his domain. He may wrest away some scoring opportunities from the RBs. So keep an eye on 1.) if Tebow makes the team and 2.) is active on gamedays.

Sad thing is, I can see the mad scientist doing just that, as insane as it sounds

 

[SteelersPride]

Good read.
Agree on Murray, Cruz and Blue.

Not with you on Sanders (yet). I keep hearing that noodle-arm Manning, and the Kubiak offense is going to hurt him. Yet WR3 Cody Latimer is a hyped-up sleeper. If there won't be enough passing to keep Sanders busy, then Latimer owners may be wasting a draft pick. Or it's all just smoke and mirrors.

Disagree with Yeldon. Sometimes the best backs are on dismal offenses. Ask AP, Charles, Lynch, and (before he got hurt) Foster. I'm not saying he'll be as great as these guys, but the Jags may have no other choice but to feature the run game in a rebuilding year.

but yeldon has literally zero of the qualities those backs posess

 

[SteelersPride]

400+ touch backs have done fine the next year. It's a tough position to go back to back anyway. A lot of the drop off has been overstated.

Now that's not to say Murray will stay healthy. He's always been injury prone and I had Joe Randle on most my teams last year because I've always thought that about Murray. But predicting injuries is mostly a fools game. He's in a great situation in Philly. If you are scared of him I'd just grab Mathews as well rather than ignoring him all together. Wish my leagues weren't mostly Eagles fans. He could be great value as a top 3 back grabbed in the 10-15 range.

no they havent.....

 

[SteelersPride]

No, they haven't.

Effect of Running Back Carries on Future Production - FootballDocs Fantasy Football

htats a horrifying list

 

[TREFF]

htats a horrifying list

It is isn't it? Career ending injuries, 1000 yard drop offs, unless your Eric Dickerson, and even he had issues sometimes

 

[SteelersPride]

and murray has been very healthy up to this point, leave it to an iggles fan

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Except for Murray all those RBs came from a different era. Folks make to much of these historical stats. Reminds of all talk about teams playing in the SB not even making the playoffs the next year, yup they had a similar list. We'll see how this goes. I'm betting we will find out it was over blown .

 

[TREFF]

Except for Murray all those RBs came from a different era. Folks make to much of these historical stats. Reminds of all talk about teams playing in the SB not even making the playoffs the next year, yup they had a similar list. We'll see how this goes. I'm betting we will find out it was over blown .

But that is the reason they came from a different area. .everyone realized that was a bad, bad idea to rise one guy that much. .that's why they don't do it anymore. Highly doubt the consequences have changed

 

[SteelersPride]

maybe murray does buck the trend but its more likely than not he wont, history repeats itself, and that data supports it

 

[HaroldSeattle]

But that is the reason they came from a different area. .everyone realized that was a bad, bad idea to rise one guy that much. .that's why they don't do it anymore. Highly doubt the consequences have changed

Naw that's not it at all. The rules changed to make this a passing league and devalue the running game. Teams focus on drafting players that help in the passing game first and foremost. Had nothing to do with thinking it was bad to have a stud RB that who could make a workhorse. Seahawks have gone against the tide with using Lynch, and yes his time to fall off is coming, hoping he can hold up as well as Gore has.

 

[TREFF]

Naw that's not it at all. The rules changed to make this a passing league and devalue the running game. Teams focus on drafting players that help in the passing game first and foremost. Had nothing to do with thinking it was bad to have a stud RB that who could make a workhorse. Seahawks have gone against the tide with using Lynch, and yes his time to fall off is coming, hoping he can hold up as well as Gore has.

I feel your sorely mistaken that it had nothing to do with it. Yes the biggest factor is the rules being favorable to passing. But there is more to it as to why there haven't been 400+ touch guys in this era. Neither Gore nor Lynch have ever received 400 touches. Gore was close in '06..and had a 600 yard off in '07 btw..it damages not only careers, but long term viability for the organization. What happened to TD, with injuries derailing what should have been a first ballot HOF career signaled to the rest of the league that they can't do those things and expect the players to be productive for them long term, that's as big of a reason as any rules change as to why that doesn't happen any longer.

And regardless of whether that is a reason or not. .still doesn't change the likelihood that Murray is set up for a bad year. Hopefully that's all it is, one bad year, and is not something that tears him down completely like it did for TD, Jamal Lewis, Jamal Anderson, Shaun Alexander..and on and on and on

 

[averagejoe]

Back then, there were no penalties to hands to the face, etc. The RB was basically a punching bag out there. Half of the these "new era" athletes can't even make it from the dorm room to the practice field without pulling a hammy in a non-contact drill.

Plus, these "new era" guys are "investments." Million dollar investments. If they get a paper cut, they see a team doctor, do blood work, and have an MRI - usually on site! The days of "stitch em up and get em back out there" are long gone.

But I'll bet if a coach had his way, he'd want to ride a bellcow back into the ground. Money and protocol may dictate otherwise now.

 

[Chef99]

htats a horrifying list

That is. And then I went to the "Busts" section, and it has very valid points for Evans being a bust. For 2015.

On another note, Eric Dickerson really was a beast, wasn't he?

 

[Chef99]

So, in my roundabout way I bring this to Melvin Gordon. Been reading a lot of stuff about his hesitation and lacking burst at the line of scrimmage...then I get to the TRich comparisons. That scares the shit outta me.

Anyone got any thoughts?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't disagree with any of your written words. Just disagree that yeldon and blue would be big busts.

A 5th round #1 RB is a 5th round pick because of the uncertainty. Anyone who drafts yeldon as a starter knows this and will plan in case of failure.

Blue, everyone expects foster to come back at some point and retake the job. So again anyone drafting him has prepared for this.

To me a big bust is a player drafted and is actually relied on. Blue and yeldon will be drafted in all leagues but owners are not counting on them to carry their team.

Apologies for semantics

 

[Chef99]

To me a big bust is a player drafted and is actually relied on.

To me, this is a big bust.

 

[gb2]

Other than Lacy and Ingram(to a degree), there haven't been many successful RBs come from there in recent time.

So you just eliminate THE 2 best running backs in the last 5 years, and THEN say no successful running backs recently?
That's convenient.

 

[TREFF]

I don't disagree with any of your written words. Just disagree that yeldon and blue would be big busts.

A 5th round #1 RB is a 5th round pick because of the uncertainty. Anyone who drafts yeldon as a starter knows this and will plan in case of failure.

Blue, everyone expects foster to come back at some point and retake the job. So again anyone drafting him has prepared for this.

To me a big bust is a player drafted and is actually relied on. Blue and yeldon will be drafted in all leagues but owners are not counting on them to carry their team.

Apologies for semantics

Okay I can get behind your reasoning for Yeldon not being a "bust"..but to me, it's me than just Yeldon and whether or not he's worthy of being a starter. .is that uncertainty added to the bad offense as a whole. If Yeldon had those same questions slowly about his ability. .but was in SD instead of Gordon, I'd say 5th round would be a decent risk. But as it is, even if Yeldon does prove the critics wrong, he's still in Jacksonville, the ceiling in the offense is low. Adding everything together, a 5th round pick is just too risky imho.
..UNLESS, he's REALLY blows everyone away and is the next Peterson. But, as you know, I really hate dealing in unrealistic hypotheticals, so I'm not really considering that as an option.

As to Blue, sure you can look at him that way, but to me, the guy is only promised first crack at replacing Foster for what, 4, 6, 8 games? Not promised the job, not promised keeping the job, Grimes and Polk have both looked better thus far. So sure if you feel a pick in the mid rounds on a guy who only had a realistic shot at half a season's worth of productive touches is worth it, knowing that you'll have to find a replacement midway through the season, be my guest. To me those guys should be going after the 8-9th

As to your definition of a bust. .to each his own. .but if you're not depending on the players you pick in the first 6 rounds as your season long starters. ..why are you drafting them so high to begin with? For me, those first six-seven picks are going to be in my lineup every week. .and if they aren't, I'm either in trouble, or I scored a home run in the late rounds or off the wire. ..that's why I stopped the list after the 6th. Didn't see any real bad ones in the seventh, and after that is mostly bench guys who are the "might be's and hope so's"

Not arguing away your reasoning or definition, just explaining my reasoning within the context if your comments

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I consider yeldon a hoarding back. What I mean by that is if you are lucky enough to draft a #1 RB then you will pass on running backs like yeldon, Hyde and others. You will likely go with a safer or more flashy pick because you can afford it. If you don't get a #1 RB you will try to get all these RBs who are most likely to get their carries and touches. You can't afford the Ameer Abdullah's you go for the hyde's and yeldon.

Not sure if that makes sense.