Trading for #1 Overall Pick

[numone9er]

Irsay will not give up the number 1 pick no matter what. I am convinced he will take Andrew Luck and let Peyton walk. He wants to Peyton to retire, but that shit isn't happening.

 

[optimist4720]

I will try to value your proposal: 2012-1st 620pts. +2012 3rd 124pts. 2013-1st. ~300-400pts.(assumes future draft degrades to 2nd rd current value with 2013 1st. picks~20-32). 2013 3rd rd ~80pts current value of 4th rd 2012. 2011 CK~660pts what we paid last yr. assumes he realy has that value to others but not a bd estimate cuz thats what we paid, LGrant~7th rd but proven can play ~100pts. So the total guesstimate of your proposal is ~620+124+400+80+660+100=1964pts. What would it really take in picks only? Probably in the neighborhood of 5 1st rders. or in real terms with trades. 2 1st rders +Patrick Willis +Aldon Smith+ N. Bowman. Thats only if they want to trade...its kinda like Lets make a deal where we trade all the known values of thes players for what behind the Andrew Luck curtain. Question what other proven QBs under contract might cost. Note that PManning only costs money not the present and future team. DBress might cost 3 1sts. but he is a proven quantity. All hypothetical and guesswork .

 

[optimist4720]

I will try to value your proposal: 2012-1st 620pts. +2012 3rd 124pts. 2013-1st. ~300-400pts.(assumes future draft degrades to 2nd rd current value with 2013 1st. picks~20-32). 2013 3rd rd ~80pts current value of 4th rd 2012. 2011 CK~660pts what we paid last yr. assumes he realy has that value to others but not a bad estimate cuz thats what we paid, LGrant~7th rd but proven can play ~100pts. So the total guesstimate of your proposal is ~620+124+400+80+660+100=1964pts. What would it really take in picks only? Probably in the neighborhood of 5 1st rders. or in real terms with trades. 2 1st rders +Patrick Willis +Aldon Smith+ N. Bowman. Thats only if they want to trade...its kinda like Lets make a deal where we trade all the known values of thes players for what behind the Andrew Luck curtain. Question what other proven QBs under contract might cost. Note that PManning only costs money not the present and future team. DBress might cost 3 1sts. but he is a proven quantity. All hypothetical and guesswork .

Point Value of PWillis: 1250 Point Value of Aldon Smith: 1500 Point value of N Bowman 125 at time of Draft.... Current value if RFA 2#1sAssume midpoint value of current #1 and future midpoint #1= 1050+525: PWillis=~1575pts. Value of Aldon Smith= 1575 N Bowman maybe less but assume ~500pts. so thats about 3600pts of value. +620 for this yr#1 and 300-400 for 2013 1st gets us to ~4500pts. so if the deal is 4000 pts overpaying we get it done for 2012 1st+ 2013 1st+ PWillis + Aldon Smith. I realize this is overpaying but answering the 4000pt. request. Seems like a pretty high price in terms of proven talent to the "LUCKY" curtain.

 

[DoobieKeebler]

*IF* this was possible, this would be a Mike Ditka-Ricky Williams style deal... AND we would still probably have to add one or a combination of Gore, J.Smith, Bowman, or Willis.

It would be a terrible trade to give all that up, but I'd bet that is what the Niners would give up.

 

[CalamityX11]

That would be a big stanank IMO. I like Blackmon, but he's not a Julio down by the schoolyard caliber WR for whom the Niners should spend big in terms of picks. Matt Kalil is that valueable (as is Andrew Luck), but Blackmon? No.

Interesting cause I actually didn't think JJ was worth all those picks myself....

Not sure if i have JJ over Blackmon or Blackmon over JJ.... just saying, we need a WR(top) so why not do(if possible cuz not sayin it'll work) what ATL did considering, in theory if we retain most of the guys we had, we're not losing much....

we already, under Harbs, have a solid bunch of players.

 

[NinerSickness]

Interesting cause I actually didn't think JJ was worth all those picks myself....

Nor did I, but Jones was a better prospect than Blackmon IMO.

 

[smackdown380]

I just saw a headline across the TV (sorry can't find a news story) that the Rams are willing to part with the 2nd pick of the draft.

 

[NinerSickness]

I just saw a headline across the TV (sorry can't find a news story) that the Rams are willing to part with the 2nd pick of the draft.

That's probably a good strategy for them.

 

[Kinzu]

That's probably a good strategy for them.

They want to move down to select Blackmon I would think or take Kalil if he drops. I've seen a lot suggesting the Browns as their trade partner which would drop the Rams to 4th. The Browns would then take RGIII.

 

[MHSL82]

They want to move down to select Blackmon I would think or take Kalil if he drops. I've seen a lot suggesting the Browns as their trade partner which would drop the Rams to 4th. The Browns would then take RGIII.

So, I'm guessing Minnesota is drafting a QB? If not, why would the Browns trade up? (Unless, of course, they believed the Rams would, but then why would the Rams pick RGIII? And if they were going to pick him, why would they trade the pick?) (Yes, I know why they'd trade the 2nd pick for the 4th. Also, I'm not asking why the Browns want RGIII.) Would picking RGIII and then trading him be worse for the Rams/Browns? And if so, why would one trade the pick if they knew it was worse than waiting (someone's getting the worse deal). If the Rams would be better off trading afterwards, they wouldn't trade picks. If the Browns were better off trading afterwards, they wouldn't trade. If timing doesn't matter, why would they trade, unless Minnesota was going to draft RGIII? (This is assuming the Rams don't actually want RGIII and hence, they are shopping the pick.)

 

[Flyingiguana]

If Alex Smith is not the long term answer (without making this a thread about that) then the team is going to have to do something drastic to get that guy. Like trading a lot to get there. We will probably be picking in the lower half of the draft for a while (hopefully) so then it turns into making wise picks and hopefully finding a gem. Sure there are really good QBs that can be had late in the first and in the 2nd, but I'm just talking about guys like Luck/Stafford/etc are gone early first.

there's no rush. guys drop every few years, we just have to keep our eyes open.

 

[Kinzu]

So, I'm guessing Minnesota is drafting a QB? If not, why would the Browns trade up? (Unless, of course, they believed the Rams would, but then why would the Rams pick RGIII? And if they were going to pick him, why would they trade the pick?) (Yes, I know why they'd trade the 2nd pick for the 4th. Also, I'm not asking why the Browns want RGIII.) Would picking RGIII and then trading him be worse for the Rams/Browns? And if so, why would one trade the pick if they knew it was worse than waiting (someone's getting the worse deal). If the Rams would be better off trading afterwards, they wouldn't trade picks. If the Browns were better off trading afterwards, they wouldn't trade. If timing doesn't matter, why would they trade, unless Minnesota was going to draft RGIII? (This is assuming the Rams don't actually want RGIII and hence, they are shopping the pick.)

The Vikings don't need a QB which makes them a good candidate to trade with someone that would leap the Browns.

 

[crash]

You could say luck had a awesome career at the college level so did Andre ware look what happen to him.i wouldn't go wasting our future away on a qb who may not even be good in the nfl

 

[Crimsoncrew]

I will try to value your proposal: 2012-1st 620pts. +2012 3rd 124pts. 2013-1st. ~300-400pts.(assumes future draft degrades to 2nd rd current value with 2013 1st. picks~20-32). 2013 3rd rd ~80pts current value of 4th rd 2012. 2011 CK~660pts what we paid last yr. assumes he realy has that value to others but not a bd estimate cuz thats what we paid, LGrant~7th rd but proven can play ~100pts. So the total guesstimate of your proposal is ~620+124+400+80+660+100=1964pts. What would it really take in picks only? Probably in the neighborhood of 5 1st rders. or in real terms with trades. 2 1st rders +Patrick Willis +Aldon Smith+ N. Bowman. Thats only if they want to trade...its kinda like Lets make a deal where we trade all the known values of thes players for what behind the Andrew Luck curtain. Question what other proven QBs under contract might cost. Note that PManning only costs money not the present and future team. DBress might cost 3 1sts. but he is a proven quantity. All hypothetical and guesswork .

I think we're going to see a change in the point value chart. Now that there is a rookie scale, the first pick is even more valuable because you're not breaking the bank for that guy. Though you could argue the first pick has been less valuable than the chart says over the past few years because of how much those guys get paid.

 

[AU_Fever]

Hopefully with a full off season with Harbaugh and possibly new receivers, Alex will continue to improve. If he develops a better rapport with Crabtree, then he should be more than a game manager and be more of a game changer.

 

[tallglassofwater007]

there's no rush. guys drop every few years, we just have to keep our eyes open.

For sure. I was just speaking in terms of the "franchise" QBs in the draft. It's a guessing game no matter what position you are picking at, but it becomes more of one the deeper you get in the draft.

 

[crash]

we could keep the picks we got in draft Kellen Moore later in the draft!!

 

[MHSL82]

The Vikings don't need a QB which makes them a good candidate to trade with someone that would leap the Browns.

Ok, I see. It doesn't matter that neither Minnesota nor St. Louis will draft a QB, it's the fact that someone else might trade with them for that position. So offer something better and you'll preempt Miami or whomever. How dumb of me. I will now go hide behind this rock. I must donate some rep points to some charity.

 

[KingJeglum]

2 1st rders +Patrick Willis +Aldon Smith+ N. Bowman. .

There is no way any GM trades 3 Pro Bowl caliber young players along with 2 firsts for an unknown commodity. Luck might be a very good QB in the NFL but I would trade Luck for that Haul all day.

Furthermore, we should consider collecting a bunch of first next year in hopes that we get a team who struggles and we can go after Barkley. Since future 1st's are worth considerably less than current first.

 

[MW49ers5]

There is no way any GM trades 3 Pro Bowl caliber young players along with 2 firsts for an unknown commodity. Luck might be a very good QB in the NFL but I would trade Luck for that Haul all day.

Furthermore, we should consider collecting a bunch of first next year in hopes that we get a team who struggles and we can go after Barkley. Since future 1st's are worth considerably less than current first.

So would I, in a heartbeat!