Trade evaluation

[TKOSpikes]

12 team standard, 2 RB, 2 WR, W/T, (QB, TE, K, DST not needed for this discussion)

Team A is 2-1
Mixon, Ingram, Fournette, Shady, R Jones, Hill
Hopkins, Evans, Watkins, Hardman, Shepard

Team B is 2-1
Bell, Damien and Darrell Williams, Gallman,Gore, J Howard
Hill, Cooper, Woods, Metcalf, Tate

Major disclosure. I'm playing him this week.

He has offered Bell and Woods for Fournette and Evans.

a) LF probably and upgrade on Gallman or Williams.
b) Bell an upgrade long term
c) actually don't like Evans this week...was thinking Shepard over him anyway
d) but long term, Woods is a downgrade... not sure which difference is greater.

e) does this help him this week more than it hurts him long term? Is Evans truly boom or bust? Will Ingram fade off, or Mixon stay mediocre? Will Sammy keep it up and Woods/Shepard enough for WR3?

f) do I counter with Sammy instead of Evans..... and take Metcalf instead of Woods?

g) reject... Head to head is the two way tiebreaker... Depth is fine, no need to risk my 10 point projected win in division.

Thanks

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Counter with Sammy instead of Woods and see what happens. Jets are gonna run the shit out of Bell.......when they aren't throwing it to him.

 

[wildturkey]

Does it have to be done this week? I hate dealing with teams I'm playing just because I fear it'll always blow up in my face. But if you take that aspect out of it, I like the trade. I do think Bell is a better long term play for you and I don't think Woods is a drop off from Evans. Woods has been a slow starter traditionally and then comes on as one of the top end WRs (not elite, but in that low end WR1 high WR2 convo). Plus with Godwin coming on for Tampa, I think Evans is going to be more up and down. Not straight up garbage (weeks 1 and 2) and then fucking amazing (week 3), just not the consistent stud he's been in years past. The gap between the two (Woods and Evans) will be closer.

I would try subbing Watkins for Evans in that deal first though. Watkins is a good sell high guy right now and people might bite on his stats right now not thinking they'll come down once Hill comes back

 

[TKOSpikes]

This week only, yes. Bell's bye week started this deal.

 

[Trudem]

I have a hard time helping my opponents the week that I play them. Also I am not sure how much, if any, of an upgrade Bell is.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Very even trade IMO. If it was me I'd accept because I like Bells chances better then Fournettes to produce year long. Down grading from Evans to Woods hurts but does seem that Evans could be up and down weekly.

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

I like the Bell side of this deal. The RB upgrade over Fournette trumps the WR downgrade IMO.

 

[leftypower]

Think the Bell side would be a 'yes' IF ppr. Standard, not so much. ...... the TD potential of both RBs is close, yardage goes to Bell. Whereas, Evans TD potential is far greater than Woods and the yardage tips in Evans favor as well IMO. ...

 

[SteelersPride]

Counter with Sammy instead of Woods and see what happens. Jets are gonna run the shit out of Bell.......when they aren't throwing it to him.

this

Think the Bell side would be a 'yes' IF ppr. Standard, not so much. ...... the TD potential of both RBs is close, yardage goes to Bell. Whereas, Evans TD potential is far greater than Woods and the yardage tips in Evans favor as well IMO. ...

i told @TKOSpikes this before. But when darnold comes back, they will pass more, anderson, crowder will get some more use.

but thus far this season:
Bell 23 targets-20 catches
fournette 20 targets 14 catches

Fournette may not be the most efficient but hes getting work. Hes on pace for 106 targets and 75 catches. THey said they wanted to involve him in the passing game and they are.

I also think the difference b/w evans and woods is enough to nix this

Bell is about 15 ppr points ahead of fournette so roughly 5 per game.........i think thats about right in ppr scoring....
woods right now is avg about 5 for 50 a week you have to like evan's chances to significantly outperform that.

i dunno i wouldnt make the trade

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't see enough of a difference between Bell and Fournette to downgrade so drastically on WR... Especially as it seems like Woods is not used much in the red zone...

 

[wildturkey]

This week only, yes. Bell's bye week started this deal.

Ooof. That sucks. Because I think if you make the deal, there's a good chance you lose this week. For that reason, I personally wouldn't do it. It's a "1 in the hand, 2 in the bush" type of deal. You know you can get a win this week, so that's more valuable than getting Bell and "maybe" gettings some wins later.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Ooof. That sucks. Because I think if you make the deal, there's a good chance you lose this week. For that reason, I personally wouldn't do it. It's a "1 in the hand, 2 in the bush" type of deal. You know you can get a win this week, so that's more valuable than getting Bell and "maybe" gettings some wins later.

I guess, what we need to know is if @TKOSpikes started Howard or not yesterday... If he did, then I would not be worried about giving him the points this week...

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I guess, what we need to know is if @TKOSpikes started Howard or not yesterday... If he did, then I would not be worried about giving him the points this week...

The other team has Howard I think...…………….that's OK cuz I messed up by saying Woods when it should have been Evans...…………...I'd try to replace EVANS with Sammy...……..

 

[averagejoe]

I agree the trade seems even.
If you believe the opinions on Fantasy Pros, they are suggesting owners to sell Evans and Ingram now too.

10 Players to Buy Low/Sell High (Fantasy Football) | FantasyPros

 

[TKOSpikes]

thanks guys...

yeah, Jordan Howard is on his bench...

...and he pulled the offer.

I was kind of at the point of accepting. Yet at the same time, glad to avoid.

If he wasn't in my division...and/or wasn't 2-1 like me... maybe I insta-accept.

Oh well....

onto new things. Evans @ Rams or Shepard vs Redskins? (or bench Sammy... I just can't)

 

[SteelersPride]

thanks guys...

yeah, Jordan Howard is on his bench...

...and he pulled the offer.

I was kind of at the point of accepting. Yet at the same time, glad to avoid.

If he wasn't in my division...and/or wasn't 2-1 like me... maybe I insta-accept.

Oh well....

onto new things. Evans @ Rams or Shepard vs Redskins? (or bench Sammy... I just can't)

Call me crazy if Godwin plays, shephard, if he doesn’t Evans by far.

 

[averagejoe]

Shepard vs Redskins

 

[TKOSpikes]

Gonna have a tough RB choice every week...

this week?
Mixon @ Pit (have him in now... just thinking semi shootout)
Ingram vs Cle (have him in now... another multi TD game? risky...)
Fournette @ Den (like the volume, not sure this is a good spot... CBS does)
Shady @ Det (easy 4th option...but could easily have the biggest day)

 

[leftypower]

Not sure you can shy away from Ingram at this point. ... you know the game plan of BAL.

 

[tlance]

Does it have to be done this week? I hate dealing with teams I'm playing just because I fear it'll always blow up in my face. But if you take that aspect out of it, I like the trade. I do think Bell is a better long term play for you and I don't think Woods is a drop off from Evans. Woods has been a slow starter traditionally and then comes on as one of the top end WRs (not elite, but in that low end WR1 high WR2 convo). Plus with Godwin coming on for Tampa, I think Evans is going to be more up and down. Not straight up garbage (weeks 1 and 2) and then fucking amazing (week 3), just not the consistent stud he's been in years past. The gap between the two (Woods and Evans) will be closer.

I would try subbing Watkins for Evans in that deal first though. Watkins is a good sell high guy right now and people might bite on his stats right now not thinking they'll come down once Hill comes back

Woods is a huge drop off from Evans.

Woods looks like the odd man out in LA. He will have splash games because he is a good player. But Kupp and Cooks are Goff’s go to targets.

Evans is a truly elite WR. Maybe not as consistent as somebody like Julio, but the numbers will be there at season’s end.

 

[tlance]

Gonna have a tough RB choice every week...

this week?
Mixon @ Pit (have him in now... just thinking semi shootout)
Ingram vs Cle (have him in now... another multi TD game? risky...)
Fournette @ Den (like the volume, not sure this is a good spot... CBS does)
Shady @ Det (easy 4th option...but could easily have the biggest day)

I would probably bench Mixon of all those options.

Cincy sucks and they have not been able to run at all. With 3 other quality options, I am benching a Mixon until he shows he can do something.