Top 60 prospects (NHL.com)

[RP-29]

I said this a bunch back at FN, but I get the feeling Mantha is going to be the next great Red Wing and it kills me that he was taken one position higher than a certain bag of shit who was taken by a certain bag of shit team.

Remember, the Wings traded down two spots with San Jose, picked up a 2nd round pick from them and still got Mantha.

Holland has caught a lot of heat from fans for his recent free agency track record, but he's proven he's still one of the best GMs in the league on draft day: where dynasties are born and maintained.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Like I said, I could be wrong. And that IS the big question, and in my opinion, the reason he was taken in the 4th round. No one knows at this point. It is entirely possible that he can't make the jump, and with faster and stronger players at the next level he's entirely ineffective. I'm not trying to argue that he should be in the top 60, just saying that in my opinion, he's gonna make some noise when he gets a shot.



He might have, but again, he didn't come back. That would have been great if he did though because the scoring race between those two would have been a lot of fun to watch. Gaudreau certainly has more talent around him at BC than Roy does at Northeastern though, when it comes to comparing points in college. Because of the age difference though, any direct comparison of stats is not going to be perfectly valid.

For years where they played at the same level there is no age difference though because they're the same age. You can compare the college years without making any adjustment for age. That difference only applies to the USHL seasons.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I don't consider Tanner Pearson to be a prospect anymore. I also think if he were I'd rate him much higher than 34th.

I'm guessing the standard is that he needs to still have rookie status, and with 25 games exactly Pearson barely qualifies.

 

[dash]

I'm guessing the standard is that he needs to still have rookie status, and with 25 games exactly Pearson barely qualifies.

You are correct sir.

 

[sabresfaninthesouth]

I like seeing Zadorov on the list.

Based on the limited NHL action he had last year, I really think he's going to be a big-time stud.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Every draft year there's somebody like that. Many times they don't even go in the 1st round.

Not really. The vast majority of star forwards are high draft picks, most of them incredibly high. Looking at the top 10 scorers in the NHL last year 8 of them were first rounders, and 5 were selected in the top 5 picks (and Stamkos and Tavares would have probably been there too without the missed time). If we extend it to the top 20 we find the same kind of ratio, 16 first rounders and 11 players selected in the top 5 picks.

 

[oaknightshockey1]

For years where they played at the same level there is no age difference though because they're the same age. You can compare the college years without making any adjustment for age. That difference only applies to the USHL seasons.

I'd disagree with that. As you pointed out, playing in Hockey East is a greater challenge than playing in the USHL. Getting experience playing at that level, regardless of age, will undoubtably give the player at the higher level an advantage over the other. On top of that, you have the difference in the talent surrounding them at their respective schools. Gaudreau, at BC, has a star-studded lineup (Hayes, Arnold) around him that Roy, at Northeastern, simply doesn't have. That said, my intention wasn't to say that Roy is going to be better than Gaudreau. I mentioned him because he played juniors in the same league and is a name most will recognize as opposed to Roy, who most won't.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Not really. The vast majority of star forwards are high draft picks, most of them incredibly high. Looking at the top 10 scorers in the NHL last year 8 of them were first rounders, and 5 were selected in the top 5 picks (and Stamkos and Tavares would have probably been there too without the missed time). If we extend it to the top 20 we find the same kind of ratio, 16 first rounders and 11 players selected in the top 5 picks.

His point was that in most drafts there's a diamond in the rough. I think that's a fair thought.

 

[DragonfromTO]

His point was that in most drafts there's a diamond in the rough. I think that's a fair thought.

Sure, but I don't know how much that actually tells us. There are a couple hundred picks in the draft, should that be surprising? There might be one, but the odds of getting him are never very good.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

Sure, but I don't know how much that actually tells us. There are a couple hundred picks in the draft, should that be surprising? There might be one, but the odds of getting him are never very good.

All kinds of superstars weren't taken in the 1st round. Guys like Datsyuk who's worth the price of admission whenever he plays wasn't a 1st round pick. Teams can find excellent players in any round. Heck Erik Karlsson was a 1st round pick, but that's because the Senators saw something others didn't. The Hockey News had him rated in the 70's going into the draft.

It's all about scouting.

 

[DragonfromTO]

All kinds of superstars weren't taken in the 1st round. Guys like Datsyuk who's worth the price of admission whenever he plays wasn't a 1st round pick. Teams can find excellent players in any round. Heck Erik Karlsson was a 1st round pick, but that's because the Senators saw something others didn't. The Hockey News had him rated in the 70's going into the draft.

It's all about scouting.

You'll notice I specifically said "forwards". Defensemen seem to develop a little differently (which is also the reason why I advocate taking a forward/centre over a defenseman with the 1st overall pick if there's an option). And if you look, you'll see it is especially true of centres. Think about the guys you would label "#1 centres". Almost all of them were high draft picks, most of them very high.

Oh wow, Datsyuk. Yeah, one guy in a 30 team league means that I'm totally off base here. Hell, there are probably a couple more even. OMG Pavelski! I mean, I'm not saying that it's impossible to get a star outside of the first round. But (the very top of) the first round is where the vast majority of true stars come from. Your team has one player that people would call a superstar. Where was he taken? My team has one too. Also taken very high in the first round.

Instead of the top 20 scorers, let's look at the 14 forwards selected to Team Canada for the Olympics. 10 of them were first rounders. 7 of them were selected in the top 3 picks. And for the most part the guys who weren't first rounders (ie. Kunitz, Sharp) were choices that were questioned by some people and weren't the ones carrying the heavy load. You can slice this a million different ways and it still comes out the same. By far, the easiest and best way to get a star forward is to take him (high) in the first round.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Not really. The vast majority of star forwards are high draft picks, most of them incredibly high. Looking at the top 10 scorers in the NHL last year 8 of them were first rounders, and 5 were selected in the top 5 picks (and Stamkos and Tavares would have probably been there too without the missed time). If we extend it to the top 20 we find the same kind of ratio, 16 first rounders and 11 players selected in the top 5 picks.

This becomes 16 and 12 if we only use forwards and take out Karlsson for Blake Wheeler.

 

[DragonfromTO]

All kinds of superstars weren't taken in the 1st round. Guys like Datsyuk who's worth the price of admission whenever he plays wasn't a 1st round pick. Teams can find excellent players in any round. Heck Erik Karlsson was a 1st round pick, but that's because the Senators saw something others didn't. The Hockey News had him rated in the 70's going into the draft.

It's all about scouting.

I just doublechecked because this sounded wrong... NHL Central Scouting had him ranked 4th among European skaters.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I just doublechecked because this sounded wrong... NHL Central Scouting had him ranked 4th among European skaters.

The Hockey News had him as a possible 3rd round pick. Not everyone was high on him. The draft is a bit of a crapshoot. Players climb & fall during the course of the season. Take Jankowski who the Flames took in the 1st round. Nobody had him as a 1st round pick. Jeff Skinner went higher than many thought he would in the draft. Every team has a different board.

 

[DragonfromTO]

The Hockey News had him as a possible 3rd round pick. Not everyone was high on him. The draft is a bit of a crapshoot. Players climb & fall during the course of the season. Take Jankowski who the Flames took in the 1st round. Nobody had him as a 1st round pick. Jeff Skinner went higher than many thought he would in the draft. Every team has a different board.

You're not really telling me anything I didn't already know and didn't already consider about draft boards here though.

Are you going to address my post about 12 of the top 20 scoring forwards last year having been selected in the first 5 picks and 16 of 20 being first rounders? Or about half of the 14 forwards selected for Team Canada being selected in the top 3 and 10 of 14 being first rounders? Don't those ratios seem high enough to show my point about where star forwards tend to come from?

 

[DragonfromTO]

The Hockey News had him as a possible 3rd round pick. Not everyone was high on him. The draft is a bit of a crapshoot. Players climb & fall during the course of the season. Take Jankowski who the Flames took in the 1st round. Nobody had him as a 1st round pick. Jeff Skinner went higher than many thought he would in the draft. Every team has a different board.

You said specifically that "the Senators (took him where they did) because they saw something that others didn't". I was just pointing out that plenty of other people must have seen the same thing that they saw, otherwise Central Scouting wouldn't have had him 4th among Euros.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Karlsson was a late riser who many, myself included, were pretty surprised to see picked by the Sens in that 15th slot.

That being said the Sens moved up to pick him and rumour was that it was because the Ducks were taking him come hell or high water in the 17th slot. True or not I'm pretty sure he was going to be a 1st rounder whether Ottawa took him or not.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

You're not really telling me anything I didn't already know and didn't already consider about draft boards here though.

Are you going to address my post about 12 of the top 20 scoring forwards last year having been selected in the first 5 picks and 16 of 20 being first rounders? Or about half of the 14 forwards selected for Team Canada being selected in the top 3 and 10 of 14 being first rounders? Don't those ratios seem high enough to show my point about where star forwards tend to come from?

The top rated players aren't hidden gems. Every team knows about them. Whether they develop or not is the only question. I believe players can still be found in every round. It's just tougher to find them these days.

 

[juliansteed]

Broken leg for Mantha. Out 6-8 weeks.

Anthony Mantha, Detroit Red Wings prospect out with broken leg - NHL.com - News