Top 10 projected offenses - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

With college football media days in full swing, it's definitely not too early to look ahead to the coming season.

Using data that we have found indicative of future performance, ESPN Stats & Information projected the offensive efficiency ranking of every Football Bowl Subdivision team next season. Factored into the ratings are prior years' efficiency using ESPN's Football Power Index, the average of four recruiting rankings (Scouts, Rivals, Phil Steele, ESPN) during a three-year span, coaching tenure and information on returning starters (according to ESPN Insider Phil Steele).

Here's a look at the top 10 offenses based purely on statistical projections. The numbers in parentheses refer to efficiency in terms of expected points added per game that each team's offense is projected to contribute to its scoring margin. Because the ratings are scaled against the FBS baseline, an average offense would contribute zero net points per game against an average defense.

For a full list of offensive, defensive and overall preseason rankings heading into the 2014 season, click here.

1. Oregon Ducks (offensive efficiency: plus-17.9)

Returning starters: 8 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Third
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 20.5

When QB Marcus Mariota announced his intention to return to school for his junior season, Oregon instantly became a national title contender again. In the two seasons with Mariota at quarterback, Oregon has scored the most touchdowns, averaged the second-most points and had the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation.

In addition to Mariota, the Ducks return their top rusher, Byron Marshall, and all five of their starting linemen to an offense that averaged the fifth-most yards per rush (6.3) in the nation in 2013.

2. Florida State Seminoles (plus-16.9)

Returning starters: 7 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: First
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 6.5

Florida State returns Jameis Winston, its Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, and six other starters from the most efficient offense in the nation last season. In 2013, the Seminoles scored at least 34 points in all 14 of their games, and their 723 total points were the most scored by a team in FBS history. Efficiency was the key to their success: Florida State averaged 3.7 points per drive, which was the best rate of any automatic-qualifying conference team in the past 10 seasons.

Florida State lost two of its top three rushers in Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr., as well as two of its top receivers in Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw. Winston and the Seminoles will look to their depth -- specifically RB Karlos Williams, WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary -- to compensate for these losses.

3. Auburn Tigers (plus-15.0)

Returning starters: 8 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Sixth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 10.2

Auburn is looking to build upon a strong close to last season in its second year with Gus Malzahn as its coach. In their final eight games, the Tigers had the second-most efficient offense in the nation, despite facing five teams in the AP Top 25. They averaged 43 points and an FBS-high 359 rushing yards in those games.

The Tigers' biggest holes are left by RB Tre Mason and LT Greg Robinson, but they return Nick Marshall, who was one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country. Marshall had an 88.3 Total QBR in his final eight games, the best of any with at least five starts during that time.

4. Baylor Bears (plus-13.5)

Returning starters: 5 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Second
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 31.6

Baylor featured one of the most explosive offenses in college football history last season. The Bears averaged an FBS-high 52.4 points per game and were on pace to break every major FBS offensive record before being slowed in their final four games. Baylor's fans learned to keep their eyes glued to the TV at all times; the average touchdown drive lasted just 1 minute, 32 seconds, and the Bears scored an FBS-high 60 touchdowns after drives of 2 minutes or less.

Quarterback Bryce Petty returns to a Baylor team that has ranked in the top two in offensive efficiency each of the past three seasons. Petty had an 85.5 Total QBR last year, which ranked fifth in the nation, and averaged more than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Bears will have to replace running backs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, but Shock Linwood, who averaged 6.9 yards per rush last season, should play a larger role in 2014.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes (plus-12.8)

Returning starters: 5 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Fourth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 3.8

Ohio State won 24 straight games on the back of an efficient offense built on power running and explosive plays. Last season, the Buckeyes averaged an FBS-high 6.8 yards per rush, including 4.3 yards before first contact. They gained a first down or touchdown on 35 percent of their rushes, the highest rate for any team in the past 10 seasons.

Despite losing running backs Carlos Hyde and Jordan Hall, Ohio State can be expected to reload in the backfield with a variety of options. Plus, Braxton Miller will look to improve upon a junior season in which he raised his QBR rank from 29th as a sophomore to 13th in the nation.

 

[iowajerms]

6. UCLA Bruins (plus-12.0)

Returning starters: 8 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: 10th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 14.8

Brett Hundley, the Bruins' leading passer and rusher in 2013, decided to forgo the NFL draft and return to UCLA for his junior season. Upon his announcement, UCLA instantly became one of the top projected offenses in the nation in 2014. Hundley ranked seventh in the FBS with an 84.8 Total QBR in 2013, and no player had a higher QBR than Hundley in the final two months of the season (after Nov. 1).

Last season, UCLA struggled offensively when its top rusher, Jordon James, went down with an injury. This ultimately thrust linebacker Myles Jack into the running back role. With James, Jack, Hundley and Paul Perkins all returning, UCLA should have one of the top rushing offenses in the nation in 2014. One thing that UCLA must improve is its pass protection, after allowing the third-most sacks in the nation (52) since the start of the 2012 season. The Bruins return four starting offensive linemen, which should at least provide stability at a crucial position group.

7. Texas A&M Aggies (plus-11.9)

Returning starters: 6
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Fifth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 10.5

Ranking the offense No. 7 may seem high in the absence of QB Johnny Manziel, but the Aggies are projected to have about the same offensive efficiency as in the year before Manziel's first season playing at College Station.

The Aggies should return one of the top rushing offenses in the nation, led by RB Tra Carson and four offensive line starters, and whichever player wins the starting quarterback job will learn from one of the top offensive coaches in the country. Kevin Sumlin's teams have ranked in the top five in ESPN's offensive efficiency rating in four of his six seasons as a head coach, including the No. 1 ranking in both 2009 (Houston) and 2012 (Texas A&M).

8. South Carolina Gamecocks (plus-11.3)

Returning starters: 8
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Eighth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 18.5

South Carolina's offensive efficiency ranking in 2013 was by far its highest in the past 10 years. The Gamecocks were led by senior QB Connor Shaw, who threw 24 touchdowns and one interception en route to posting the 15th-best QBR in the country.

Unlike other teams that lost their starting quarterback, South Carolina has a veteran backup in Dylan Thompson, who has thrown more than 200 passes in his career. Thompson has a 71.4 career QBR, which would have placed him in the top quarter of the FBS if he had enough action plays. Look for South Carolina to excel running the football. Second-team All-SEC RB Mike Davis returns, as do four starters on the offensive line.

9. Arizona State Sun Devils (plus-10.9)

Returning starters: 7 (including QB)
2013 offensive efficiency rank: Ninth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 32.4

According to ESPN's strength-of-schedule rankings, Arizona State played the most difficult schedule in the nation this past season. Every FBS defense Arizona State faced had an efficiency rating that ranked in the top half of the FBS, including seven in the top 25.

Despite the difficult schedule, Arizona State averaged the 10th-most points per game (39.7) in the nation. The Sun Devils return quarterback Taylor Kelly, who improved his Total QBR rank from 37th to 25th from 2012 to 2013. Kelly should have an arsenal of wide receivers, led by Jaelen Strong, to continue his success.

10. Alabama Crimson Tide (plus-10.9)

Returning starters: 7
2013 offensive efficiency rank: 11th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 1.5

Despite losing its all-time winningest quarterback, AJ McCarron, Alabama should again have one of the top offenses in the nation. The case can be made that the Crimson Tide have the best skill position players in the country. RB T.J. Yeldon is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, while the experienced wide receiver group of Amari Cooper, DeAndrew White and Christion Jones could be the best in the SEC.

First-year offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin will look to implement an even more efficient offense, and he should have a bounty of talent from which to choose. Alabama has had the best average recruiting rank of any team in the past three seasons. Including players listed as "athletes," the Tide have signed four more ESPN 300 offensive players than any other team in the country during that time.

Oregon Ducks headline top 10 offenses for 2014 season - College Football - ESPN

 

[podsox]

only team on the list the doesn't make sense is texas a&m

 

[Bamabino]

1 Texas Tech 90.3
2 BYU 89.9
3 California 88.7
4 Fresno St 85.4
5 Baylor 85.2
6 Virginia 84.0
7 Arizona 83.2
8 Hawaii 82.5
9 Nevada 82.4
10 S Methodist 82.3
11 NC State 81.8
12 E Carolina 81.7
13 Clemson 81.5
14 Arizona St 81.5
15 Boise State 81.0
16 Washington 81.0
17 Idaho 80.8
18 San Jose St 80.5
19 Wash State 80.5
20 Marshall 80.2



20 fastest teams(plays per game 2013). Baylor is the only team to make both lists.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Ya, eating the clock for an entire half for 8 games hurt Oregon in that ppg stat for sure.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

USC at 8th?

:confused2:

 

[Tin Man]

iowajerms, do you RAGBRAI?

 

[LvilleSooner]

Can't wait to re visit this list come December & my guess is that Louisville will be on it.

 

[WB1214]

Whereas I was shocked we were on the defensive list, pretty shocked we aren't on this one. Our skill positions are loaded, especially at RB with Gurley and Marshall. If we can stay relatively healthy and Mason does beat himself, our offense should do really well.

 

[Codaxx]

only team on the list the doesn't make sense is texas a&m

-
OSU and A&M both have questions. A&M returns next to 0 at the skill positions, but should have a salty OL. That is probably the most important thing when breaking in youngsters. I would much rather have an experienced OL, than skill guys. OSU loses best rb, best WR, and 4 of their 5 starting OL. OSU had 151 games started on their roster by OL at the end of last year, now they have 16. Urban is a legit offensive mind, but expecting a top 10 offense is pretty bullish. Both schools have talented youngsters that will be forced into playing time, the question is how long will it take that talent to come out.

 

[HuskerinBig10]

iowajerms, do you RAGBRAI?

I have friends that do RAGBRAI. Our friends stayed with us last Thursday night, driving through to western Iowa. My understanding is that the camping nights on RAGBRAI can be very interesting with the physical attractions people get while riding with people for seven days.

I can tell you picking people up in those small towns at the end, sucks big time. Because there isn't any infrastructure for the volume of people coming in to pick up people, there is massive congestion. One year, we picked up one friend on the I-80 bridge over the Mississippi River.

One person from West Branch Iowa died on it this year.

 

[iowajerms]

iowajerms, do you RAGBRAI?

Even if I was good enough shape to do RAGBRAI, I would never do it. I don't really want to be around 100s of people on bicycles drunk for hundreds of miles (or 30 miles for the 1 session).

 

[The Derski]

1 Texas Tech 90.3
2 BYU 89.9
3 California 88.7
4 Fresno St 85.4
5 Baylor 85.2
6 Virginia 84.0
7 Arizona 83.2
8 Hawaii 82.5
9 Nevada 82.4
10 S Methodist 82.3
11 NC State 81.8
12 E Carolina 81.7
13 Clemson 81.5
14 Arizona St 81.5
15 Boise State 81.0
16 Washington 81.0
17 Idaho 80.8
18 San Jose St 80.5
19 Wash State 80.5
20 Marshall 80.2



20 fastest teams(plays per game 2013). Baylor is the only team to make both lists.

ASU made both lists as well.

 

[iowajerms]

ASU made both lists as well.

ASU only made the offense list. They didn't make the defense list.

That is the fastest offenses in 2013, which is probably a reason they made this list.

 

[The Derski]

ASU only made the offense list. They didn't make the defense list.

That is the fastest offenses in 2013, which is probably a reason they made this list.

I thought we were talking about the points per game list and the plays per game list. My bad.