Too early to talk about draft

[Sharkonabicycle]

He was also one of the best players on the best defense in college football.

I get a little skeptical of that stuff (maybe you're saying the same thing) - was he one of the best players because everyone else around him was so good he was able to use his speed and athleticism to clean everything up and look great. Well stick him on a mediocre NFL defense (which at best we're at) with players 50% more athletic/larger and is he going to produce the same? Maybe not. HE COULD... but I'm not holding my breath. Speed can matter, but it's only great coupled with 2-3 other skills at best... If that's all you're banking on - we've seen tons of instances where that's failed entirely.

 

[flyerhawk]

Reid's NFL mock draft: Seven rounds, 259 total picks and every name you should know

Jordan Reid unveils a seven-round 2023 NFL mock draft, with predictions for all 259 picks, from Carolina to Houston.

www.espn.com

#5 - Jalen Carter
#20 - Van Ness
#37 - John Schmitz
#52 - Jack Campbell
#83 - Kyu Blu kelly
#123 - Parker Washington
#151 - Tanner McKee
#154 - Colby Wooden
#198 - Khalan Laborn
#237 - Isiah Land

Don't know all those guys but the ones I do I like!

 

[Anointed One]

I love this Mock Draft 1st - 5th round... One of the better ones I've seen for the Hawks... WalterFootball.com: 2023 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Continued

1:5 - DT, Jaylen Carter, Georgia
1:20 - DE, Myles Murphy, Clemson
2:37 - WR, Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
2:52 - TE, Sam La Porta, Iowa
3:83 - CB, Jaylen Jones, Texas A&M
4:123 - QB, Jaren Hall, BYU
5:151 - C, Alex Forsyth, Oregon
5:154 - OLB, Richard Jibunor, Troy

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I love this Mock Draft 1st - 5th round... One of the better ones I've seen for the Hawks... WalterFootball.com: 2023 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Continued

1:5 - DT, Jaylen Carter, Georgia
1:20 - DE, Myles Murphy, Clemson
2:37 - WR, Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
2:52 - TE, Sam La Porta, Iowa
3:83 - CB, Jaylen Jones, Texas A&M
4:123 - QB, Jaren Hall, BYU
5:151 - C, Alex Forsyth, Oregon
5:154 - OLB, Richard Jibunor, Troy

Walter has a pretty good track record and I'll state the obvious (for those that follow any of my ramblings) that I leverage a lot of his opinions here (of course I have my own, but I like to see if I'm WAY off base in which case I have disagreed publicly on this forum) - but not a fan of that draft. It doesn't address ILB at all, Carter was not Suh or Donald... he didn't have the pass rush threat either did, I think it's just a SOLID DL class - Carter had flashes of dominance but I don't want 'flashes' at #5... The TE I don't get (Fant may get released granted)...

Yah the prospect of Carter/Murphy is okay, but where are you going to play Carter? NOSE TACKLE!? At #5? Oh I'm sure he'll try real hard there... Cause Murphy/Reed/Jones are likely taking up the 3-4 slots... I just don't get that draft.

 

[flyerhawk]

Walter has a pretty good track record and I'll state the obvious (for those that follow any of my ramblings) that I leverage a lot of his opinions here (of course I have my own, but I like to see if I'm WAY off base in which case I have disagreed publicly on this forum) - but not a fan of that draft. It doesn't address ILB at all, Carter was not Suh or Donald... he didn't have the pass rush threat either did, I think it's just a SOLID DL class - Carter had flashes of dominance but I don't want 'flashes' at #5... The TE I don't get (Fant may get released granted)...

Yah the prospect of Carter/Murphy is okay, but where are you going to play Carter? NOSE TACKLE!? At #5? Oh I'm sure he'll try real hard there... Cause Murphy/Reed/Jones are likely taking up the 3-4 slots... I just don't get that draft.

Carter is 314 lbs. He may not be the monster land mass NT that some 3-4 defenses like to have. But Carter is a near ideal interior lineman for a 3-4 in passing downs. Honestly a front 3 of Jones, Carter, Murphy is a lot tonnage.

Until his off field issues he was a consensus top 3 pick, often considered a top 1 pick when the Bears still had the No. 1.

Carter is a near perfect option, from a player type, for this defense. He can fill space and he can penetrate. Of course it is far from certain that he will develop into the player he can be. But that is true of anyone.

Not sure who you think we should take at 5.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Carter is 314 lbs. He may not be the monster land mass NT that some 3-4 defenses like to have. But Carter is a near ideal interior lineman for a 3-4 in passing downs. Honestly a front 3 of Jones, Carter, Murphy is a lot tonnage.

Until his off field issues he was a consensus top 3 pick, often considered a top 1 pick when the Bears still had the No. 1.

Carter is a near perfect option, from a player type, for this defense. He can fill space and he can penetrate. Of course it is far from certain that he will develop into the player he can be. But that is true of anyone.

Not sure who you think we should take at 5.

Anderson or trade down... if Stroud is there (lol) take that.

 

[flyerhawk]

Anderson or trade down... if Stroud is there (lol) take that.

Anderson is a way worse fit for our defense. He's another undersized edge defender. He may be better than any of the guys we have but we have a bunch of those guys already. Our problem was a lack of size and ability on the interior last year. We were an average defense when big Al was on the field. We were a straight up bad defense when he wasn't.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Our problem was a lack of size and ability on the interior last year.

True and a run-stuffing DT is a real need, but a run-stuffer can be found in rounds 2-4 most years or even later.

Anderson is a way worse fit for our defense. He's another undersized edge defender.

I felt the same way earlier but have come around to thinking I might have been hasty. He often gets in the backfield fast enough to hit the RB as he's getting the ball from the QB in fact he is in the record book for TFLs.

Tackles for Loss Career Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Tackles for Loss Career Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

so tied for 10th all time for tackles for losses in NCAA football. That's impressive.

 

[flyerhawk]

True and a run-stuffing DT is a real need, but a run-stuffer can be found in rounds 2-4 most years or even later.

I felt the same way earlier but have come around to thinking I might have been hasty. He often gets in the backfield fast enough to hit the RB as he's getting the ball from the QB in fact he is in the record book for TFLs.

Tackles for Loss Career Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Tackles for Loss Career Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

View attachment 324565

I'm fine with drafting Anderson if he's available. But I don't think Anderson addresses a specific need. Granted, his skill may mean that is irrelevant. But it would mean that we would need to get a little lucky as the depth at DT is much thinner than edge in this draft.

I get that Carter comes with risks. But if PC/JS thinks those aren't a problem, I'm ok with it.

 

[flyerhawk]

Pretty good analysis of both Carter and Anderson..

 

[MrS]

Reid's NFL mock draft: Seven rounds, 259 total picks and every name you should know

Jordan Reid unveils a seven-round 2023 NFL mock draft, with predictions for all 259 picks, from Carolina to Houston.

www.espn.com

#5 - Jalen Carter
#20 - Van Ness
#37 - John Schmitz
#52 - Jack Campbell
#83 - Kyu Blu kelly
#123 - Parker Washington
#151 - Tanner McKee
#154 - Colby Wooden
#198 - Khalan Laborn
#237 - Isiah Land

Don't know all those guys but the ones I do I like!

this hits on most of our needs, I would be happy with it.

I love this Mock Draft 1st - 5th round... One of the better ones I've seen for the Hawks... WalterFootball.com: 2023 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Continued

1:5 - DT, Jaylen Carter, Georgia
1:20 - DE, Myles Murphy, Clemson
2:37 - WR, Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
2:52 - TE, Sam La Porta, Iowa
3:83 - CB, Jaylen Jones, Texas A&M
4:123 - QB, Jaren Hall, BYU
5:151 - C, Alex Forsyth, Oregon
5:154 - OLB, Richard Jibunor, Troy

it starts out well at least, WR and TE in round two would be a huge disappointment.

 

[Anointed One]

Pretty good analysis of both Carter and Anderson..

Great example of a guy dominating a game w/out putting up a huge stat line w/ tackles and sacks...

 

[Anointed One]

True and a run-stuffing DT is a real need, but a run-stuffer can be found in rounds 2-4 most years or even later.

If it was that easy, we'd have one or two on the roster...

Also, we need an interior DT that can also maintain double teams and put pressure on the QB... Not interested in just looking for a run-stuffer...

 

[Anointed One]

this hits on most of our needs, I would be happy with it.

it starts out well at least, WR and TE in round two would be a huge disappointment.

We are going to be needing a WR and TE next season on the roster with Fant probably moving on, Dissly injury history and Lockett getting older... We won't have as many picks next season so to me, it makes sense to draft them this year in the 2nd or 3rd round...

 

[HaroldSeattle]

NCAA tracks the most relevant defensive stats-- solo tackles, assisted tackles, total tackles, sacks, and interceptions fumble recoveries. Why these stats? Because these things directly impact plays, great players are leaders in these types of stats, year in and year out.

 

[flyerhawk]

Great example of a guy dominating a game w/out putting up a huge stat line w/ tackles and sacks...

This happens a lot with interior lineman. They are huge disruptors but they cause the play to go the other direction.

 

[flyerhawk]

NCAA tracks the most relevant defensive stats-- solo tackles, assisted tackles, total tackles, sacks, and interceptions fumble recoveries. Why these stats? Because these things directly impact plays, great players are leaders in these types of stats, year in and year out.

Well also because they are relatively easy to measure.

Sacks are important but they can be misleading as well. Sack on 3rd and 17 is far less impactful than a sack on 2nd and 4 or 3rd and 2. But it is hard to measure that sort of thing. Similarly, pressure rate likely is a better indicator of impact than sack rates. But, again, it is difficult to measure.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well also because they are relatively easy to measure.

Sacks are important but they can be misleading as well. Sack on 3rd and 17 is far less impactful than a sack on 2nd and 4 or 3rd and 2. But it is hard to measure that sort of thing. Similarly, pressure rate likely is a better indicator of impact than sack rates. But, again, it is difficult to measure.

Having great stats in college doesn't guarantee success in the pros, but a lack of these stats in college should concern folks. How on earth can someone be described as dominant while coming up short on the field making tackles and sacks? If a DL is not sacking the QB or tackling the ball carrier it's ludicrous to be described as dominating.

 

[flyerhawk]

Having great stats in college doesn't guarantee success in the pros, but a lack of these stats in college should concern folks. How on earth can someone be described as dominant while coming up short on the field making tackles and sacks? If a DL is not sacking the QB or tackling the ball carrier it's ludicrous to be described as dominating.

And yet we have a player that is almost universally viewed a dominating defensive lineman that doesn't have huge stats.

Jalen Carter Defensive Line Georgia | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report

Rating: 91.9 Rank: #1 Forty: 4.96 Jalen Carter is an elite prospect, he's simply always been great - from dominating in high school to being a five-star prospect to becoming the best player...

www.nfldraftbuzz.com

Jalen Carter NFL Draft 2023 scouting report: Landing spots, pro comparison, combine results, more

Everything you need to know about Georgia DL and 2023 NFL Draft prospect Jalen Carter

www.cbssports.com

I don't watch enough college football to really know who is and who is not a great player. And it's possible that Anderson or Wilson or Murphy are the better pick.

But, IMO, if we judge them all being roughly equal in the risk/reward perspective then Carter is the best choice as he is the best fit for what this defense needs. IMO, Carter is someone who can play 0 technique over the center or slide to 3 technique if he's line up with Reed and Jones. That sort of versatility is exactly what this defense has not had. He may not be quite the immovable object that Big Al was but he offers far better penetration than Al did.

 

[Anointed One]

Having great stats in college doesn't guarantee success in the pros, but a lack of these stats in college should concern folks.

That's how I feel about Anthony Richardson...