Too early to talk about draft

[HaroldSeattle]

Pete Carroll will ride off into the sunset in a few years, he may not think any of the Qbs gives him a better chances at one last superbowl run over smith + an elite defender.

I dont think he is worried about the franchise 5 years down the road, he is worried about 2023-25

He has 3 years, I'd bet he's fine developing the next franchise QB and win while doing so.

 

[flyerhawk]

I was responding to your post asking if paying Geno 30 or 40 million was crazy. 30 million guaranteed may not be crazy but for dang sure 40 million guaranteed is. Just how stupid would it look paying him that kind of coin and than he plays to his norm, oh yeah then lets not draft a QB ( already to much vested at QB position I hear), lets just ride a aging Geno Smith who come up with a shocking career year for the first time in his life.

I was referring to total guaranteed money when I said 40 million. Not AAV.

I just don't see how a 3 year 90/4 year 110 deal is so crazy. It's not even a notable QB contract. Burrow will easily top 50 mill a year and 100+ million in guarantees

 

[MrS]

He has 3 years, I'd bet he's fine developing the next franchise QB and win while doing so.

maybe, or maybe keeping a guy that just broke franchise records and stacking the defense makes more sense.

im not saying this is what I want, but what the team is more likely to do.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I was referring to total guaranteed money when I said 40 million. Not AAV.

I just don't see how a 3 year 90/4 year 110 deal is so crazy. It's not even a notable QB contract. Burrow will easily top 50 mill a year and 100+ million in guarantees

First that amount is substantial enough to have folks thinking the Seahawks can’t take a swing at high prospect at QB also, too much to invest in one position yada yada yada. That contract pretty much guarantee’s the Seahawk eat a large amount of money when they release him. It’s not like anyone feels Geno can make the Seahawks champ, at best a borderline playoff team is the ceiling with Geno. That would put the Seahawks right back to what they have been for years. I believe with trading RW the idea was to start fresh and once again build to a champion and they got off to a great start. I am sure the plan was to draft a potential franchise QB this year and now folks want to punt on that and double down on aging Geno being able to repeat a freak career year.

 

[wilwhite]

Question for me is how much of Geno's success (and Wilson's success) should be credited to the coaches.

Would it be a big surprise for example if they signed a guy like Jacoby Brissett and he had a comparable 2023 to Geno's 2022?

 

[MrS]

Question for me is how much of Geno's success (and Wilson's success) should be credited to the coaches.

Would it be a big surprise for example if they signed a guy like Jacoby Brissett and he had a comparable 2023 to Geno's 2022?

Doubtful, for one thing geno has always had the physical skills but he also had several years on the bench to learn the system.

Throwing a journeyman off the street into the starting lineup would be a terrible idea

 

[flyerhawk]

First that amount is substantial enough to have folks thinking the Seahawks can’t take a swing at high prospect at QB also, too much to invest in one position yada yada yada. That contract pretty much guarantee’s the Seahawk eat a large amount of money when they release him. It’s not like anyone feels Geno can make the Seahawks champ, at best a borderline playoff team is the ceiling with Geno. That would put the Seahawks right back to what they have been for years. I believe with trading RW the idea was to start fresh and once again build to a champion and they got off to a great start. I am sure the plan was to draft a potential franchise QB this year and now folks want to punt on that and double down on aging Geno being able to repeat a freak career year.

If the idea was to start fresh then they should have moved on from Pete. We literally argued about this very thing before last season.

So you basically don't want Geno at all and would prefer we draft a QB and hope for the best. And if it doesn't pan out we can draft another QB next year or the year after. Rinse, repeat.

 

[wilwhite]

Doubtful, for one thing geno has always had the physical skills but he also had several years on the bench to learn the system.

Throwing a journeyman off the street into the starting lineup would be a terrible idea

Having a few years in the system is a good point. Brissett's not exactly off the street. His QBR last year was almost as good as Geno's and it was his first year in Cleveland.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

If the idea was to start fresh then they should have moved on from Pete. We literally argued about this very thing before last season.

So you basically don't want Geno at all and would prefer we draft a QB and hope for the best. And if it doesn't pan out we can draft another QB next year or the year after. Rinse, repeat.

No I want Geno if the Seahawks can sign him for the cost of what he will be, which is a bridge QB. It's a mistake to over invest in him. I also feel the search for a franchise QB starts with this draft.

 

[flyerhawk]

No I want Geno if the Seahawks can sign him for the cost of what he will be, which is a bridge QB. It's a mistake to over invest in him. I also feel the search for a franchise QB starts with this draft.

So how much is the right number? If it is below 20 million AAV then you simply don't want him.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

So how much is the right number? If it is below 20 million AAV then you simply don't want him.

The right number is what other bridge QB make and maybe a bit more given he play did above expectations. So lets look:

Winston AAV is 14 million
Mariota AAV is 9 million
Jimmy G is 7 million
Mayfield is 15 million

So I feel 20 million is the max and you give him incentives to make more millions based on making the playoffs, making the NFC championship, making the SB, winning the SB ect. If your paying more than 20 million to not make the playoffs that's a mistake.

Heck I'm fine with him earning 40 or even 50 million with the incentives if the Seahawks win the SB. Incentives can be a win win for Geno and the team.

 

[flyerhawk]

The right number is what other bridge QB make and maybe a bit more given he play did above expectations. So lets look:

Winston AAV is 14 million
Mariota AAV is 9 million
Jimmy G is 7 million
Mayfield is 15 million

So I feel 20 million is the max and you give him incentives to make more millions based on making the playoffs, making the NFC championship, making the SB, winning the SB ect. If your paying more than 20 million to not make the playoffs that's a mistake.

Jimmy G's salary is low because he can't stay healthy. If you are equating Geno to Winston or Mariota then I don't see why you even want him. Neither has ever had a season close to what Geno had last year.

And I would also bring back the proposed contract that I think will be close to what he gets. 3 year 90 million with a 46 million dollar signing bonus. First year he gets 2 million in salary. Year 3 he get 30 million. Basically requires a 2 year committment to Geno. Even if Geno is not quite as good next year, he's still a quality starter.

Letting Geno go and bringing in some journeyman that struggles is likely to have some ripple effects on other players. Like DK and Tyler who may think that the team simply doesn't care about winning.

Like it or not, Geno stepped up this year when everyone thought he wouldn't and he had a year that exceeded almost everyone's opinions. Arguing that the team would be better off moving on and hoping that we strike gold in the draft goes against EVERYTHING preaches.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Like it or not, Geno stepped up this year when everyone thought he wouldn't and he had a year that exceeded almost everyone's opinions. Arguing that the team would be better off moving on and hoping that we strike gold in the draft goes against EVERYTHING preaches

A contract that paid him 20 million just for being on the roster and incentives to double that if the team has success on the field is the better solution as the team is paying for actual production in 2023. If Geno produces he gets paid accordingly and if he doesn't he still earns 20 million and 20 million is a lot for missing the playoffs. Win win IMO.
A incentive laden contract is the best solution for both parties IMO. I suspect this is the type of contract the two parties are working out. In any case the Seahawks need to take a swing at finding their QB of the future in this draft.

 

[JMR]

A contract that paid him 20 million just for being on the roster and incentives to double that if the team has success on the field is the better solution as the team is paying for actual production in 2023. If Geno produces he gets paid accordingly and if he doesn't he still earns 20 million and 20 million is a lot for missing the playoffs. Win win IMO.
A incentive laden contract is the best solution for both parties IMO.

So you want there to be a chance Geno counts $40M against the 2023 cap? I don't. And I think Geno would be happier with a $40M signing bonus anyway, and the team would also be better off in the case because they can easily craft the deal to make the '23 cap number under $20M.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

the team would also be better off in the case because they can easily craft the deal to make the '23 cap number under $20M.

That's a buy now pay later deal and think it's better not to do that.

 

[flyerhawk]

A contract that paid him 20 million just for being on the roster and incentives to double that if the team has success on the field is the better solution as the team is paying for actual production in 2023. If Geno produces he gets paid accordingly and if he doesn't he still earns 20 million and 20 million is a lot for missing the playoffs. Win win IMO.
A incentive laden contract is the best solution for both parties IMO. I suspect this is the type of contract the two parties are working out. In any case the Seahawks need to take a swing at finding their QB of the future in this draft.

There are a lot of limits to incentive laden contracts. First off if they are considered likely to be achieved then they count against the cap regardless of whether they are achieved. And no player is going to accept incentives that are based on overall team performance because no player completely controls the outcome of a season. Furthermore, creating those kinds of incentives for players will easily create a lot of animosity in the locker room.

Either Geno is worth that 3 year 90 million contract or he isn't. Tweaking the numbers so that some of that is incentive driven is fine. But that is really at the margins.

 

[JMR]

That's a buy now pay later deal and think it's better not to do that.

It isn't really because the cap continually goes up. There are no new starting QB contracts out there that have a static year over year pay structure. They almost always have a couple void or dummy years at the end to spread out the up front money. Basic cap management stuff.

 

[flyerhawk]

That's a buy now pay later deal and think it's better not to do that.

Teams do this all the time. It's part of managing the cap. 10 million in cap today is more expensive that 10 million in cap 4 years from now because the cap will be higher, considerably higher most likely.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

There are a lot of limits to incentive laden contracts. First off if they are considered likely to be achieved then they count against the cap regardless of whether they are achieved. And no player is going to accept incentives that are based on overall team performance because no player completely controls the outcome of a season. Furthermore, creating those kinds of incentives for players will easily create a lot of animosity in the locker room.

Either Geno is worth that 3 year 90 million contract or he isn't. Tweaking the numbers so that some of that is incentive driven is fine. But that is really at the margins.

I'm betting a incentive laden deal is what is being discussed with Geno. Time will tell.

 

[flyerhawk]

I'm betting a incentive laden deal is what is being discussed with Geno. Time will tell.

I'm sure there will be incentives to the contract.