Too early to talk about draft

[MrS]

I guess the one thing that gives me faith is that it seems we've done a very good job scouting QBs. They drafted Wilson, somehow knew that Geno had the ability to have a good season, and were very interested in Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes.

I'm definitely nit-picking, but I'm able to find flaws in just about all of the top QBs available. It's a way, way, way, way, way better class than last year, but when you look at the top-3 you have this:

- Bryce Young: Has it all but is short and slender.

- C.J. Stroud: Looks great but has had incredible protection and has had the best WRs college football can offer. Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson went #10 and #11 respectively, Jaxson Smith-Njigba is one of the best WRs this class and Marvin Harrison Jr. + Emeka Egbuka might be the first two WRs selected in the draft next year.

-Will Levis: Has a ton of physical tools and experience in a pro-style offense and maybe I need to watch him more, but the production doesn't exactly jump out at you.

I could see them liking levis and Richardson, but I praying they dont. Richardson needs 3 years to sit and learn, levis sees to be pure hype and no substance.

Really hoping we trade out of 5 and pick up an extra 1st next year

 

[seahawksfan234]

I’m praying the Seahawks don’t over pay for Geno because I agree with your statement.

The Geno situation is... Tough.

Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

Ranking the top NFL Quarterback contracts and salaries in the NFL

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The only starting QBs who aren't rookies or Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston or Tom Brady have an APY of at least $29.5m. The more I think about it the more unsure I am what we should do. He's probably in the Derek Carr-tier of contracts which would have a starting point of $40m, which I think would hamstring us.

Sadly looking at the APY of veteran QBs, we'd be fortunate to land him at $30m per year which begs the question of if he's worth that much. His agent will probably have a starting point of at least $40m per year.

 

[MrS]

If he wants 40m, tag him. Trade him if you can.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Dont forget they have Tre Brown who has not been able to get on the field because of Injury and other issues he might be the answer for the other side.

Jones should have been retained as he was their best CB in 2021 and it wasn't even close then he got hurt and they never got him back on the field.

Tre Brown actually surprised me when he was on the field as he fairly mediocre when he played for Oklahoma.

I'd be surprised to see the Seahawks go CB in the first round as I believe I read that under Pete Carroll they haven't selected a CB higher than the fourth round. I really do love some of the CB prospects in this upcoming draft though. I'd imagine it would be tough for Carroll to pass on Ringo if he's available at #20. If Carroll could build a CB in a lab it would be Ringo.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I could see them liking levis and Richardson, but I praying they dont. Richardson needs 3 years to sit and learn, levis sees to be pure hype and no substance.

Really hoping we trade out of 5 and pick up an extra 1st next year

Personally I wouldn't take Richardson in the first 3 rounds. I get the appeal, Richardson has Cam Newton's size and speed, but that doesn't matter if you can't even complete 60% of your passes at the college level in today's game.

Everything I've read about Levis is that he didn't produce at a high level in college due to a poor supporting cast, but apparently he checks every other box. I do agree that I could see the Seahawks really liking him though.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I did one:

1.8 Myles Murphy DE Clemson
1.20 Trenton Simpson, LB Clemson
2.37 Siaki Ika, DT Baylor
2.44 Drew Sanders, LB Arkansas
2.52 Noah Sewell, LB Oregon
4.121 Alex Forsyth, C Oregon
5.149 Colby Wooden, DT Auburn
5.152 Luke Schoonmaker, TE Michigan
6.185 Hunter Luepke, RB North Dakota State

I Had another one where I traded back from 5 to 7 and still got Jalen Carter, but accidentally drafted a 5'9 165 lbs RB in the second round and quit the draft and started over.

I'd be very happy with this.

 

[seahawksfan234]

If he wants 40m, tag him. Trade him if you can.

Tag would cost $45m

 

[MrS]

Tag would cost $45m

The exclusive tag yes, not the standard franchise tag thats $32m. Thats my understanding

 

[flyerhawk]

The exclusive tag yes, not the standard franchise tag thats $32m. Thats my understanding

If someone wants to give us 2 1sts to sign Geno that's fine as well

 

[blstoker]

I know we've briefly discussed this before, but clearly $30m total for 3 years isn't going to cut it. That being said, what would you like to see the Seahawks do at QB?

I respect your opinion so I'm curious as to your thoughts.

I'm going to throw this idea out there; tag Geno and select the best QB available, then let Geno walk after 2023?

Kind of a tough situation because I do agree that Geno isn't worth $30m+, but the team does appear to be in a win-now mode and rolling with a rookie at QB could be a bit risky unless we really land that pick.

Assuming you don't want to tag Geno, what would you have the Seahawks do?

There's any number of free agents that I could look at. Ranging from Sam Darnold, Garner Minshew & Drew Lock to Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield who should all be well under what Geno will be looking for and could possibly show some promise with receivers the quality that Seattle has. The first set should come in under the 10m AAV and the last set could be possibilities on prove it deals or in the lower to mid 20s AAV.

Then there's always a rookie.

I'm still shocked they made the playoffs and unless they manage something amazing, this team won't improve next year with Geno taking over half their available cap space. If they give him $40m AAV, it's almost a guarantee he'll command 20 against the cap this year and will count against the cap over 40 before he's able to be cut at the end of the contract. Every 40 AAV QB in the NFL is at 30 by the third year of the contract, and only Derek Carr is in a position to be cut before he reaches that threshold - and what's happening to him is evidence enough for Geno not to give the Seahawks that kind of contract. Even if Seattle finds a way to make this year's cap hit not as significant, there's almost no way to not see Geno make $50 million against the cap within just a few years - if the current QB contracts are any indication of what to expect in the negotiations.

Even if they can get Geno to sign for 3 years 105 million (which is probably low) then there's probably $45m signing bonus. He just isn't worth that.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Eh I'd rather take a shot at the talent at #5 if Carter, Anderson, Stroud, or Wilson are there... I get if Young is there and you can trade down fine, but I still want a player in the top 10... the talent between a top 5 vs. top 10 vs. top 40 player is EXTREMELY vast. Yah, you could always end up with a bust like Curry (bleh) but... the chance continues to diminish the further you get down. And a top 5 player is probably immediately starting, and especially on D we need IMMEDIATE starters. This is not a sit and wait thing, this is a plug and play thing, especially on the DL/EDGE. And if Geno doesn't resign, well then QB is too.

It's always fun to speculate trading down picks and getting a haul, but it's actually harder to negotiate than you think (source: know a couple guys in the Seahawks FO - don't ask me for their names, not giving that out for obvious reasons).

Again, Stroud, Carter, Anderson, Wilson - take em'... if all 4 are gone Young is available, and then trade down for a King's random for that. If NOBODY trades down... ooooh... um... I mean you're between Young, Levis, and Murphy at that point... IMO that would be a disaster for Seattle but I don't think it'll happen.

If All are gone. Why not take Tyree Wilson?

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

If All are gone. Why not take Tyree Wilson?

Sorry Judge, not sure I understand. I said numerous times in that post if Wilson is there at #5 take him. I mean this in the most polite way as possible, but what are you talking about?

 

[flyerhawk]

There's any number of free agents that I could look at. Ranging from Sam Darnold, Garner Minshew & Drew Lock to Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield who should all be well under what Geno will be looking for and could possibly show some promise with receivers the quality that Seattle has. The first set should come in under the 10m AAV and the last set could be possibilities on prove it deals or in the lower to mid 20s AAV.

Then there's always a rookie.

I'm still shocked they made the playoffs and unless they manage something amazing, this team won't improve next year with Geno taking over half their available cap space. If they give him $40m AAV, it's almost a guarantee he'll command 20 against the cap this year and will count against the cap over 40 before he's able to be cut at the end of the contract. Every 40 AAV QB in the NFL is at 30 by the third year of the contract, and only Derek Carr is in a position to be cut before he reaches that threshold - and what's happening to him is evidence enough for Geno not to give the Seahawks that kind of contract. Even if Seattle finds a way to make this year's cap hit not as significant, there's almost no way to not see Geno make $50 million against the cap within just a few years - if the current QB contracts are any indication of what to expect in the negotiations.

Even if they can get Geno to sign for 3 years 105 million (which is probably low) then there's probably $45m signing bonus. He just isn't worth that.

Geno had one good year. So I don't think there is going to be any real appetite to make him a 40 million AAV player by anyone.

In fact, I think he will either sign a deal in the neighborhood of 3/90 or 4/120. If he doesn't, and the Seahawks want to keep him, then they will tender the non-exclusive franchise tag on him.

Signing someone like Darnold or Minshew just to save some money seems very short sighted to me. If they do that then they are drafting a QB at 5 and possibly will need to move up to make they get the QB they want.

 

[flyerhawk]

2023 NFL Mock Draft: The Bears stay put, the Raiders make a big move for a QB

What happens in Round 1 if the Bears take Jalen Carter at No. 1? Which teams might hunt a QB? Our latest two-round mock breaks it down.

theathletic.com

If we got Anderson and Breese I would consider this an A++ draft. Getting Sanders in the 2nd would be a home run as well.

 

[Judge Fudge]

Sorry Judge, not sure I understand. I said numerous times in that post if Wilson is there at #5 take him. I mean this in the most polite way as possible, but what are you talking about?

Never mind. Mis read

 

[Wolvie]

I could see them liking levis and Richardson, but I praying they dont. Richardson needs 3 years to sit and learn, levis sees to be pure hype and no substance.

Really hoping we trade out of 5 and pick up an extra 1st next year

have you tried this mock draft simulator? PFN MDS Image

I can't stop doing mock drafts, but I am constantly able to get 4+ 1st rounders for 2024 by trading out of the first round this draft and still having 3 2nd round picks and 3+ 3rd round picks. I would absolutely love to see us make a ton of trades until we are out of the first round.

 

[flyerhawk]

have you tried this mock draft simulator? PFN MDS Image

I can't stop doing mock drafts, but I am constantly able to get 4+ 1st rounders for 2024 by trading out of the first round this draft and still having 3 2nd round picks and 3+ 3rd round picks. I would absolutely love to see us make a ton of trades until we are out of the first round.

That's silly. We aren't trading our No. 5 pick out of the 1st. That might instigate a league investigation.

 

[Wolvie]

That's silly. We aren't trading our No. 5 pick out of the 1st. That might instigate a league investigation.

What do you mean?

 

[MrS]

have you tried this mock draft simulator? PFN MDS Image

I can't stop doing mock drafts, but I am constantly able to get 4+ 1st rounders for 2024 by trading out of the first round this draft and still having 3 2nd round picks and 3+ 3rd round picks. I would absolutely love to see us make a ton of trades until we are out of the first round.

I dont think we need to trade out completely. Even trading down a few spots could net us a future first.

Maybe consider swapping the broncos 2nd rounder for a future first

 

[Wolvie]

I dont think we need to trade out completely. Even trading down a few spots could net us a future first.

Maybe consider swapping the broncos 2nd rounder for a future first

I love the strategy of moving down only a couple spots and picking up a ton in future picks. We do that 4 or 5 times and our 5 & 20 picks ultimately turn into a ton of 2nd and 3rd rounders + 2024 picks. If you wanted to keep a very last 1st rounder we could still get a ton of future capital. There is a ton of great talent available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of any draft, so I am perfectly fine with getting as many of those picks as possible and have 3 or 4 additional 1st rounders next year which we could then ultimately trade up to get a franchise QB.