Ton's of Free Agents this offseason

[NinerSickness]

Seems like common sense that if teams are over paying their top players ( or those they thought were their top players) the players below them are going to make less. A three million bump up hardly makes up for some of these massive contracts.

From 2009 to 2011 the salary cap went down 2.44% (3 million reduction).

From 2009 to 2011 the median NFL salary went down 2.53%. (790K to 770K).

Seems pretty consistent.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

From 2009 to 2011 the salary cap went down 2.44% (3 million reduction).

From 2009 to 2011 the median NFL salary went down 2.53%. (790K to 770K).

Seems pretty consistent.

Excuse me Sickness, but no shit sherlocks. You get the median by dividing the cap by the # of players (53), there for if the cap goes down the median goes down and visa versa. The median tells you nothing about whether an average player is getting paid less now, because the top earner just got a $10,000,000 raise. Common sense and basic math will tell you they must, because the cap is not going up as fast as these mega contracts that are being handed out.

 

[NinerSickness]

Excuse me Sickness, but no shit sherlocks. You get the median by dividing the cap by the # of players (53),

Excuse me HS, but I think we both goofed on this one. I said mean, but I meant median. You said median, but you meant mean (I think).

The median can't be calculated that way (as I'm sure you know). I know the average NFL income can be calculated by total NFL personnel expenditures (not necessarily the salary cap) divided by 1696 (unless practice squad' counts).

 

[Davis_Mike]

The point I was making is the increased salary for the top 5% of NFL players is outpacing the the increase for the semi-stagnant salary cap. There is no denying this. Thus in return, the good mid level guys are negatively affected by it. From just a cursory veiw, there is no denying this. If you want to crunch numbers to disprove this, be my guest. Good luck with that.

 

[NinerSickness]

The point I was making is the increased salary for the top 5% of NFL players is outpacing the the increase for the semi-stagnant salary cap. There is no denying this. Thus in return, the good mid level guys are negatively affected by it. From just a cursory veiw, there is no denying this. If you want to crunch numbers to disprove this, be my guest. Good luck with that.

You're assuming. Nobody has compared the increase of the top 5% earners versus the increase of the salary cap by year. We know how much the cap has increased; how much has the top 5% of salaries increased? Where is that data?

And you can't just look at one or two players because you're talking about a trend not an anecdotal example.

Also, the very top of the NFL salary scale is quarterbacks, and their increase in pay has more to do with the fact that the NFL values passing the ball more in the NFL than it did before a lot of rule changes made it more advantageous to pass versus run. At the same time, RB salaries relative to the cap have been devalued.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Ok Sickness your right, the median is calculated by a the average of the middle salary or salaries. Never the less, the pie grows by $3Million next year, so if your giving a player a $10,000,000 the teams has to find saving at other positions and if your giving two players heft raises ( for example Kaep and Aldon Smith) then doesn't the team have to reduce what they pay out at other positions? There for players at the top of the pecking order get richer and others get poorer.

 

[NinerSickness]

Ok Sickness your right, the median is calculated by a the average of the middle salary or salaries. Never the less, the pie grows by $3Million next year, so if your giving a player a $10,000,000 the teams has to find saving at other positions and if your giving two players heft raises ( for example Kaep and Aldon Smith) then doesn't the team have to reduce what they pay out at other positions? There for players at the top of the pecking order get richer and others get poorer.

The median isn't calculated; it's just the salary right in the middle the line.

The rest of your post is true except for the bold part necessarily. But this has always been true; except when the cap was just over 62 million, you would've said that about guys making 5 million instead of 10.

This shouldn't even be a debate. This is math. The data is out there. If someone wants to prove it they can. So far nobody has, and I suspect that's because it's inherently false. Anyone should feel free to prove that wrong if they can.

 

[Davis_Mike]

The reason no one has compiled the data is because it is too time consuming for the average person do so. And much of the data is difficult to collect. If you are so sure of your claims, then why not collect & post the data yourself instead of calling what is obvious to most, inherently false. Rather than continuing to be obtuse on this subject, do the research yourself.

You can start by taking the top 5%(85 players) of player salaries and figure out their total money percentage of overall player salaries for the years 2009-2013. And then compare that with percentage increase of the cap over those same seasons.

 

[NinerSickness]

The reason no one has compiled the data is because it is too time consuming for the average person do so.

That's true, but this was a topic in the sports news a while back, and it was extremely lazy journalism for them to have even given people a forum to promote this theory without checking it. Any one of those guys could get an intern to research this really quickly.

And much of the data is difficult to collect. If you are so sure of your claims, then why not collect & post the data yourself instead of calling what is obvious to most, inherently false. Rather than continuing to be obtuse on this subject, do the research yourself.

I'm not sure of my claims; all I have is an educated guess. My point is that it's irresponsible to say make these claims (like some lazy journalists have a while back) without the data to back it up. I'm not making a claim to the contrary; I'm saying the claim can easily be proven if it's true; and it hasn't been.

And I looked for that information to no avail about a year ago.

 

[ONEPANTHERSFAN]

All I know is this, my team, the Panthers has 21 FA's. Most of these are middle and lower tier players that we brought in on short term deals. But it also includes our Kicker, a pro bowl T, and our 2013 Sack Leader. Some of these middle tier players did very well for us and I would like to see them back but guys want to get paid. The Panthers are currently 12-15 million under the cap and even if the Cap goes up by 3 million there is no way we can keep everyone.


Carolina has been blessed by getting 3 top players in the draft since the new CBA, Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly, and Star Lotulelei. Not to mention Kawann Short, who I think is going to be very good. This year we have Greg Hardy (15 sacks this year, 11 last year) and he has made no secret he wants to stay in Carolina but he wants a big contract. I'm hoping we use the franchise tag on him and work out a long term deal. Next year, it's Cam Newton and looking at what QB's are making, he's going to cost, especially if we make the playoffs or even the SB next year. After that Luke, who many call one of if not the best MLB in football right now. The following year is Star and Short who have the potential to be one of the top DT duos in the NFL. Someone is going to be a cap casualty. We have a ton of money tied up in a few players already and thanks to our former GM we can't even think about letting them go because they would count so much dead money against our cap.


I imagine there are other teams in similar situations.


I think, more and more teams, are going to follow the Patriots model. Do what you have to do to keep your top players for as long as possible but don't panic when you eventually lose them. Get role players for the rest of your team and expect fairly high turnover every year. This can open up more opportunities for middle tier players to find teams but it's going to hurt their asking price. I think you are going to see more and more decent to good players willing to sign for less.

 

[Midnightangel]

Seems like common sense that if teams are over paying their top players ( or those they thought were their top players) the players below them are going to make less. A three million bump up hardly makes up for some of these massive contracts.

For example, next year Flacco cap hit goes up $8 million, a three million increase in the cap will only help a little. To break it down a little better.

These are his cap hits.
2013) $6,800,000
2014) $14,800,000

2016) $28,550,000
2017) $31,150,000

Barring a huge jump in the cap, Ravens are going have find cheap players to stay under the cap. This is typical of what a lot of teams face. So the top money winner gets a bigger slice of the pie and the rest smaller slices.

True. The going trend is to sign for big money, hoping the cap jumps significantly, and when it doesn't you ask said player to 'restructure' his contract. You give him some of that retroactively (if you can) and push some forward (kicking the can down the road). Eventually you're going to have to pony up.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Well I think the corner position is a great place to start. Couple of years ago a starting caliber above average corner was getting a $10 million a year contract like that of Dallas' Carr. This past off Sarandon above average corners only got one or two year deals worth close to $5 million like DRC or Talib. Again the top tier guys still get paid but anybody not in that category seems to be getting only 2 year deals tops with pretty average salary.

The key is the top FAs imo since they tend to set the bar...Keenan Lewis got a big deal, Sean Smith from MIA did also...Grimes got $5 mil for a yr...better than average, but way more than I was expecting. CBs is not where I would say the drop off is.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

I saw a list of the free agents for this off-season and wow, it is one hell of an incredible class. If a team is looking to improve quickly they will have a lot of luck in the free agent market this year. It is a good year for teams to have a lot of cap space to spend. Unfortunately, as a Seahawks fan our biggest concern is retaining the guys we've got, not spending on new ones.

Mind sharing that list with us on here so we all can see?

 

[ONEPANTHERSFAN]

Mind sharing that list with us on here so we all can see?

Here is one. you just have to click on the team.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/07/2014-pff-free-agency-tracker/

 

[HammerDown]

 

[molsaniceman]

Mind sharing that list with us on here so we all can see?

heres one



NFL Free Agents and Free Agency

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

Most of those guys are going to get tagged if they don't resign so I doubt the FA class is going to be great. Dez, Demarius, Houston, Suh or Fairley wont even be available once the teams can use the tag.

FYI, man I'd love to see Philly land Houston. Him and Barwin at OLB in the 3-4 might hide our HORRIFIC secondary.

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

Oh, I cant think of a better FA signing then Demarco Murray to the Cardinals. If that happens (doubtful cause AZ is against the cap) they'd be a top 5 team IMO.

 

[Clayton]

Iuapti and Murray are probably the two biggest names that you could see switching teams. Murray taking a discount and staying in Dallas wouldn't surprise me either.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

One would think the Chiefs would try to avoid FT'ing Houston and just suck it up now given they have what some metrics are calling a top 3 or 5 Center in Rodney Hudson among other spots that need to be addressed.