This Will Be a Most interesting Season

[K.J.Ester]

The last so many years have been predictable for the most part.
In 2009 I called for 3 wins and got 2.
In 2010 I called for 6 wins and got the 6.
In 2011 I said 10-6, got ridiculed by many for being a cool-aid drinker, and they won 10 games.
In 2012 I said they would take a step back and win 9 games only and was hated on for being a pessimist. They won only 4 games. Okay, I thought they would take a step back, not dive backwards, stop, drop and roll.

This year? God only knows! I am calling 9-7 at this time, but I can see a scenario where they win 6 games and I see where they will win 12 and make it to the Superbowl. Both of those are extreme, but I see them both as possible. This year I just cant see how anyone can feel confident in what they will do. There are too many reasons to believe the Lions can go in either direction.

QB - Stafford has proven to us all now, that he is not fragile. He can take plenty of hits and get back to his feet. Now the question is, will he be more like the Stafford we saw last preseason, when he was accurate and composed, or the Stafford that started losing his composure, throwing sidearm too often, and leaving the pocket when it was still intact. It would be nice to believe he will settle back down and be great again, but how confident can you be knowing he will be behind a very young O-line that has not had a chance to gel?

RB - Without a doubt, the running back situation is better than it has been in a long time. I would venture to say it is the best it has been since Sanders retired. Bush will be a RB who the defenses need to fear. He has the ability to take break away for a long one on any play. In short yardage, LeShoure and Bell will add another dimension. Without a doubt, the Lions RB position is improved.

WR - They still have Calvin Johnson and he is healthy. That is the most important thing. He is arguably the best WR to ever play the game. It is the other guys that we need to think about. Burleson is 100% so they say. But is that great? I like him but he simply iss not a WR to draw attention away from CJ. Broyles is making a comeback from major knee surgery.... again! They have a smattering of other players, but none of them can be expected to be huge. You can hope, but not expect. The loss of TY can be looked at a loss of a lot of talent, or an addition by subtraction as he was a cancer. Like it or not, I cant see the WRs as any better or worse than last year.

TE - Pettigrew had made some big strides in the 10 win season and then last year he started dropping them again. He seems to be good on the odd years. This is an odd year. We can only hope he will return to two years ago and not last years form. The addition of Bush should help him as defenses will worry more about the RB now and Pettigrew may be a little more open. Scheff will be Scheff. He will catch his passes but he isnt a top TE in the league. The Lions still want Pettigrew to become that guy.

O-Line - This is the unit that will make all the difference in whether the offense is great or bad this year. They lost Backus, and like him or not, he was one of the better ones. He went against the best DE's in the game week in and week out and won those battles far more than he has lost. The guy replacing him is no slouch. Reiff is a first round pick and will be a very good one someday, but this will be his first year he has manned the position. He will make some mistakes. He will lose a few more battles than Backus lost. Warford is a beast at RG, but he is a rookie. He will have his breakdowns. This unit will be slightly better in run blocking, but that wont make a huge difference in a single back set. They will need time to gel and grow before they are great in the pass game.

All in all, I see this offense taking a step backwards. Stafford is being forced to regain his composure behind a less secure line. Bush will open things up a bit more, but there will be more break downs than improvements this first year with the O-line together.

D-line -- Suh is Suh. He is a great DT and he has settled down from taking so many penalties. O-lines fear him and QBs wake up in cold sweats to realize they were sleeping after being knocked out on the field. Well that is what it would be like if he ever had more than 2 seconds to get to the QBs. Fairley is getting better but he is far from being as good as Suh is. He doesnt get as many sacks even though he is not doubled as often, but he does a good job of stopping the run. Avril is gone, but they got Ansah. I for one believe this is an upgrade. In the wide-9, it wont take as long for Ansah to develop into a speed rusher from the outside, but he will add the dimension of swatting passes down more often. The D-line is set and nothing to worry about.... unless you are a QB.

LB - The fact is, last year they were not great and this year they are not as good. Tulloch is solid but not great. Levy has moments but is nothing special. It may help that he will finally be in the same position for continuous years. He seems to be moved inside and outside from one year to the next. But the loss of Durant (though he was not really good) is still a loss because they dont have anyone better to take his place.

DB - If Delmas can make it through most of the season healthy, it is a huge plus. Houston will stay healthy and will still be Houston. A great #2 CB who is asked to cover #1 WRs and does a decent job. They added Quinn at Safety and that will be an improvement over recent years. The real question mark will be the CB opposite Houston. The Lions tried to answer that this year by drafting a CB in the 2nd round. Slay is easily the most talented CB on the team, but he is a rookie and needs to play like a veteran. It may be too much to ask.

Defense in general will be a little better than last year. If Slay (or anyone else) plays well opposite Houston, it will make QBs hold the ball longer and give the D-line a chance to get there. But that means the Lions LBs need to also cover the TE's well. If They are not better in the CB position than last year, the defense will not be much better at all as a whole. They will still be better with Quinn at Safety, but worse with the loss of Durant (and not getting someone better to replace him.)

This year the Lions can run in any direction. If Slay and Ansah work out, the defense will be much improved. If the O-line does well, the offense will be a little better. If Linehan learns to use the lead blocker more often, that will make a big improvement. All of those together and the Lions could be one of the best teams in the NFL. Then again, if the CB spot is still vacant looking, the O-line flounders, Stafford grows happy feet, and Linehan sticks almost solely to the single back set? We could see only 5 wins. Any of these can happen and anything between is likely. The year of 2013 NFL season will be a most interesting one because there is simply no way of knowing what the Lions will end up doing. Anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. Yet, that just makes me want to watch it all that much more. I cant wait to see what Lions team will show up from week to week.

 

[Old Lion]

Nice Post. I will keep mine much shorter to keep things moving along.

I agree with most all of your post. I would just make some minor opinion changes. We will be slightly better at the offensive skill positions with both Broyles and Burleson both on the field and Pettigrew has been working diligently on holding onto the ball during offseason training. The OL is certainly a question mark and Stafford has to survive long enough for them to get it together or the season is over early.

On defense we will be much better than you think. The D-Line will be much better especially against the run. Jones and Idonije are a huge upgrade at RE for both run and pass. Fairly should finely be 100% and Ansah should come on strong by the end of the year. Our secondary will be much improved as well. Quinn should help what was dreadful Safety play for most of the year until Carey came back. I expect Slay to be an interception machine based on what is comeing out of camp already. The LBs still stink and will be the weak link, but improving 2 out 3 aint bad.

 

[Vader]

[/QUOTE]Ansah should come on strong by the end of the year

I think Ansah is going to be better than many expect right from the start. Avril got mop up sacks to get his sack total up but in my view rarely caused any disruption to the QB who just stood in the pocket and delivered. KVB was straight up awful and just ran up field 6 yards beyond the pocket. You didn't even gave to block him. He took himself out of every play. Whether our sack totals go up or not I don't know but I think we will be much more disruptive and therefore a lot better.

 

[Quackerjacked]

The only thing I'm going to really have contention with is the assessment that they are getting worse with the loss of Durant. You really can't get worse. He was terrible in all facets of the game. Scratch that; he was a solid tackler, but terrible in the run game. A lot of run plays were made because of his inability to make proper run fits. I don't know how many times I saw an open Tully there to make a play, but Durant would attack the block on the inside shoulder leaving an open space because the defensive end was attacking the outside shoulder of his block. Very often he does this cause whatever support the play calls for to be unable to make a play. He might be the worst zone coverage player I have ever seen in professional football. He is so bad that the only way you can tell what zone he is attempting to cover is to look at the other players a deduce his responsibility from where the other players are covering and look to the open space he is supposed to be in. In man coverage he had the athleticism to cover just about anyone, but no skill to actually stop a play from happening. Whoever replaces him won't be worse.

 

[VulturesRule]

What will make this a most interesting season is that the dark era of Millen is becoming a foggy remembrance for most fans. Now, it's truly Mayhew's team to move forward with. Each layer has strengths that can be exploited, and weaknesses that can be questioned.

I have questions about team leadership, but expect them to be answered by week four. If we start by sinking the Vikings (who have really had our number for a long time), and continue with two out of the next three as wins, it's going to be a season of hope. Lose to the Vikings and win two out of the next three gets us to even, but that should pretty much start the search for a new coaching staff. Anything less should be an in-season firing.

No team is without weaknesses. The Lions, as has been pointed out, have many strengths and potentials for more strength. Great coaching needs to become one of those strengths.

 

[Rollingthndr]

O-Line - This is the unit that will make all the difference in whether the offense is great or bad this year. They lost Backus, and like him or not, he was one of the better ones. He went against the best DE's in the game week in and week out and won those battles far more than he has lost. The guy replacing him is no slouch. Reiff is a first round pick and will be a very good one someday, but this will be his first year he has manned the position. He will make some mistakes. He will lose a few more battles than Backus lost. Warford is a beast at RG, but he is a rookie. He will have his breakdowns. This unit will be slightly better in run blocking, but that wont make a huge difference in a single back set. They will need time to gel and grow before they are great in the pass game.

All in all, I see this offense taking a step backwards. Stafford is being forced to regain his composure behind a less secure line. Bush will open things up a bit more, but there will be more break downs than improvements this first year with the O-line together.

I think I am in the few here, but I think the Oline should be improved. The Oline last year to me was vastly over rated. Mayhew was quick to announce after the season that there was an alarming amount of pressure up the middle. Peterbum and Tiny Dancer were horrible, to put it nicely. Backus was pretty good in pass pro but offered nothing in terms of run blocking. Sims and Cherilous were very good and very consistent last season and we still have Sims.

I think (hope) Reiff will be an upgrade over Backus. Sims is solid and Warford will be a bigger improvement over Peterbum. Tiny Dancer will be a liability as always but it's not like we aren't used to it. My biggest question is RT, Fox is a huge unknown and Hilliard is a good depth/borderline starter material.

 

[Rollingthndr]

This year the Lions can run in any direction. If Slay and Ansah work out, the defense will be much improved. If the O-line does well, the offense will be a little better. If Linehan learns to use the lead blocker more often, that will make a big improvement. All of those together and the Lions could be one of the best teams in the NFL. Then again, if the CB spot is still vacant looking, the O-line flounders, Stafford grows happy feet, and Linehan sticks almost solely to the single back set? We could see only 5 wins. Any of these can happen and anything between is likely. The year of 2013 NFL season will be a most interesting one because there is simply no way of knowing what the Lions will end up doing. Anyone's guess is as good as anyone else's. Yet, that just makes me want to watch it all that much more. I cant wait to see what Lions team will show up from week to week.

This is a great observation, too many things need to go perfect for a deep playoff run. I still think we need a great WLB and more Oline talent to contend on a regular basis. One more good draft should do it if Mayhew would just target need a little more like he did this last draft.