This Analysis is Very Interesting

[Mozart'sGhost]

Tim Tebow's success with Broncos can be easily explained with stats - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

Interesting analysis as to why the Broncos are having success with Tebow at QB. I'd like to see how this same analysis wouldcorrelate to Alex Smith and the success the 49ers have had with him at QB this year. Stat geeks?

 

[crash]

Teams haven't caught on how to stop him yet....Give it a few weeks you stop him from running the draw you are going to beat the broncos

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Teams haven't caught on how to stop him yet....Give it a few weeks you stop him from running the draw you are going to beat the broncos

I'm more and more inclined to believe the argument the author makes in the OP. That's why I'm interested if it pertains to Smith or not. He, like Tebow, doesn't appear to anything exceptionally well but, like Tebow, he doesn't make many mistakes and makes the most out of the plays he does make.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Career percentage of touches that produce a TD and career interception percentage are the juiciest. He gets TDs one way or the other and doesn't turn the ball over.

The differential in QB production benefits greatly from their defensive performance. DJWill, Miller, Dumervil, and Bailey are beasting right now.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Teams haven't caught on how to stop him yet....Give it a few weeks you stop him from running the draw you are going to beat the broncos

BS. You focus on the run and he beats you with Decker over the top.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Career percentage of touches that produce a TD and career interception percentage are the juiciest. He gets TDs one way or the other and doesn't turn the ball over.

The differential in QB production benefits greatly from their defensive performance. DJWill, Miller, Dumervil, and Bailey are beasting right now.[/QUOTE]

Perhaps Smith does as well.

 

[Flyingiguana]

tebow is basically a running back. heck i bet LT coulda ran this offense even better. he threw better passes too

 

[Crimsoncrew]

The first thing to strike me: Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Carson Palmer (first start for Raiders, three INTs and a fumble), Tyler Palko (Cassel played most of the game, to be fair), and Mark Sanchez. That's a who's-who of QBs. Philip Rivers is the only legit QB Tebow has faced, and he's having easily his worst season this year. Other than the Oakland game, the D has held the opponent to 15 or less in all of his starts.

Now, Tebow deserves some credit. He allows the team to hold the ball and doesn't turn it over much. But I seriously question his ability to run with a good offense. We'll see what happens. They're in the mix for the playoffs, and they'll absolutely play some good offenses if they make it. Should be interesting to see what happens when they fall behind.

Btw, anyone know how they calculate this Real QB Rating?

 

[clyde_carbon]

BS. You focus on the run and he beats you with Decker over the top.

Except for the fact that he can barely hit his receivers 50% of the time.

Defenses will readjust to this offense, and Tebow will eventually be a backup QB or a situational player. Bank on that.

 

[Flyingiguana]

they'll be up shit creek without a paddle if they fall behind. gonna be interesting to see how they handle the offseason. do they go out and get players for this system or simply put square pegs in round holes and hope for the best until they get a legit pro qb?

 

[Lightyear49er]

The Denver D deserves credit for every win so far. They keep them in the game. An average QB would put up wins in the same situations with much better stats. The only problem with Orton was the team didn't back him like they do Tebow. D's will be catching up to him soon and it's gonna get ugly. He's still got the worst throwing motion I've ever seen and his accuracy is awful.

 

[MarkOU]

I don't think there is anything to figure out. They are not going to nickle and dime you with short passes.

Stop the run, thats their 'secret'.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

Tebow is riding his own wave and will be figured out and the hype will be over. I cant see him him having this success for so long. Just my opinion.

 

[maniax]

I think Tebow takes too much criticism and also gets too much attention.

The guy is playing and competing and winning. I'm happy for the guy that he's winning given how much criticism he takes.

Teams will figure him out and he'll have to adjust and learn some more plays and throws to adjust.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Except for the fact that his receivers drop 50% of his passes.

Fixed it for you.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Here's my problem with making too much of his success right now: he's only played one top-10 offense in terms of PPG, and his team was blown out in that one. Next is Oakland at 11, but they were off that game with Palmer still finding his stride. Tebow is keeping the team competitive and is closing out games in very effective fashion, but I question his ability to hang with a good offense.

People are also drawing attention to the difference between Orton and Tebow in terms of W-L as if there was this incredible turnaround as soon as Tebow came in. That's valid...to an extent. All of Orton's losses but one (at GB) were one-score games (3, 3, and 5). Being able to close out games is the difference between good teams and bad teams - as we well know, and that's the one area where Tebow has really flourished, but it's not like that team was terrible and is now great. They're effectively the same team they were, they just have more will to finish. The importance of that can hardly be overstated, but the D is as important or more important to that team's success as Tebow.

I realize all these complaints are effectively the same ones that have been leveled at Alex Smith and the Niners, but I think they're valid in both cases. Tebow will be doubted until he has shown that he can consistently compete against good teams.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

The first thing to strike me: Matt Moore, Shaun Hill, Carson Palmer (first start for Raiders, three INTs and a fumble), Tyler Palko (Cassel played most of the game, to be fair), and Mark Sanchez. That's a who's-who of QBs. Philip Rivers is the only legit QB Tebow has faced, and he's having easily his worst season this year. Other than the Oakland game, the D has held the opponent to 15 or less in all of his starts.

Now, Tebow deserves some credit. He allows the team to hold the ball and doesn't turn it over much. But I seriously question his ability to run with a good offense. We'll see what happens. They're in the mix for the playoffs, and they'll absolutely play some good offenses if they make it. Should be interesting to see what happens when they fall behind.

Btw, anyone know how they calculate this Real QB Rating?

That's what I want to know and how it equates, if it does, to Alex Smith's success this year.

 

[Mozart'sGhost]

Except for the fact that he can barely hit his receivers 50% of the time.

Defenses will readjust to this offense, and Tebow will eventually be a backup QB or a situational player. Bank on that.

I wouldn't think that adjustment would not be very easy since most teams will only see this once a season; the AFC West teams being the exception. You have to change the defense you run the other 15 weeks to go against the Broncos. The biggest problem it seems to me is can the back up QB run this offense if Tebow gets hurt in a game or do they have to change up what they've practiced all season for the sake of the back up QB.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Fixed it for you.

Because he throws arguably the least catchable ball in the NFL.

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Because he throws arguably the least catchable ball in the NFL.

He wasn't so bad last game. There were 4 very catchable balls that were flat out dropped. I'll give him a chance to improve unlike most.