Theory on the offense

[TobyTyler]

Exactly. If it comes at the expense of losing home field to Seattle...not worth. I can't imagine us winning up there even if we get Mario and Crabs back.

Its not a lost cause if Seattle gets home field because other teams can beat them up there; its just the 49ers who can't. They are not invincible.

 

[BINGO]

It's too much of a risk IMO. I don't quite believe that that is the approach Roman/Harbaugh are taking. The NFL is not a given league, I cannot picture any coaching staff willing to play Russian Roulette with our season in that fashion. Even if you had access to the best medical staff in the world, and they tell you that both Crab and Mario would be back 100% to their old form, as a coach you still have to that mind frame that you playing the season WITHOUT them. Your frame of mind should always be on the active players. How can I win each game, let alone the SB with the players I have now. You gotta prepare as if Mario and Crab is not coming back to be 100%, if they do come back then it's a bonus, you don't have to adjust your gameplan at all. Pete Carroll for instance is preparing as if Harvin is not playing this year, if Harvin comes back 100% healthy, oh well that's a bonus for him.

 

[imac_21]

Since each win is just as important as another whether its early or late, wouldn't the time for creativity be when we are at our least talented, like now?

Each win isn't equally important though. Playoff wins are more valuable. My theory is that the staff felt they could win with their defense early, so keep the offense very vanilla. Once the weapons return, late in the season, then the offense opens up and we catch teams off guard. Harbaugh et al, hopefully, are playing the long game.

 

[imac_21]

Our offensive staff clearly has a record of keeping things up their sleeve until necessary. But it has to be balanced against the fact that we can't lose home field advantage to SEA. I can see it in some circumstances, but it doesn't quite explain the performance against the Colts, which as a home game was somewhat a "must win" in this light. Seems like that game was more of a screw-up than anything else.

Yes, but I don't think there was any way in hell, with the current roster, we were going into Seattle and getting a win. Why show your hand? We could have tried to bluff our way through the game with tricks etc, but it just puts it on film for future opponents.

Losing to Indy sucked, but the offense didn't do anything different. The defense shit the bed. If the plan is to ride the defense in the early part of the season, they let us down in that game.

Ultimately though, I think most of felt getting through the first 6 weeks at 4-2 would be a successful start to the season. We knew Seattle was going to be virtually impossible to beat in Seattle, especially without Crabtree. indy is better than anyone expected, but Houston is way worse. Looking at an opening stretch with 4 playoff teams from the previous year and the other two being division matchups is a ridiculous way to start.

I think we're right about where we expected to be, and am hoping we're going to unleash the offense in the last quarter of the season.

 

[imac_21]

Exactly. If it comes at the expense of losing home field to Seattle...not worth. I can't imagine us winning up there even if we get Mario and Crabs back.

Which means there was no way to win up there without them.

The Indy game we got our asses kicked on defense.

 

[imac_21]

It's too much of a risk IMO. I don't quite believe that that is the approach Roman/Harbaugh are taking. The NFL is not a given league, I cannot picture any coaching staff willing to play Russian Roulette with our season in that fashion. Even if you had access to the best medical staff in the world, and they tell you that both Crab and Mario would be back 100% to their old form, as a coach you still have to that mind frame that you playing the season WITHOUT them. Your frame of mind should always be on the active players. How can I win each game, let alone the SB with the players I have now. You gotta prepare as if Mario and Crab is not coming back to be 100%, if they do come back then it's a bonus, you don't have to adjust your gameplan at all. Pete Carroll for instance is preparing as if Harvin is not playing this year, if Harvin comes back 100% healthy, oh well that's a bonus for him.

Except we did just that last season with this coaching staff. We held back late in the season on offense, not running read option, including in a very important game in Seattle, so that we could take teams off guard in the playoffs.

Mario and Crab not at 100% is still remarkably better than what we're lining up at WR2 and WR3 right now. But this is more about knowing what you're team is capable of. We don't have a strong offense right now. Why start breaking out the "gimmicks?" When we get Crabtree and Manningham back, we will adjust our game plan. Right now if we go 3 WR, 1 TE and 1 RB our WRs are Boldin, Williams and Baldwin. I'm confident we can do a lot more with Crabtree/Boldin/Manningham that our current group. That will affect the game plan and the play calling.

Seattle's game plan will change when Harvin comes back because he can do things no one else on that roster can. You game plan to your talent. You don't try to force your talent into a game plan.

What's your source on Carroll preparing as if we will not have Harvin this year? I haven't seen that anywhere. Last week Harvin tweeted that he'd be back soon.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Which means there was no way to win up there without them.

The Indy game we got our asses kicked on defense.

Our defense was doing okay for a while, until they gave in because our offense manage only ONE decent drive the entire game.

 

[imac_21]

Our defense was doing okay for a while, until they gave in because our offense manage only ONE decent drive the entire game.

They were doing okay. But the idea is that the defense is great and wins games for us early so we don't have to trust guys like Kyle Williams, Jon Baldwin, Marlon Moore and a couple rookies (Vance and QP) to move the ball.

If we were playing a more open, down field passing offense what would our record be right now? How successful could we have been throwing the ball downfield without Davis in the line-up? Were we going into Seattle with that line-up and winning?

If we're holding back on offense, it hasn't cost us anything in terms of wins.

 

[DoobieKeebler]

Its not a lost cause if Seattle gets home field because other teams can beat them up there; its just the 49ers who can't. They are not invincible.

Actually Seattle is damn near invincible when they're playing at the clink. They haven't lost a home game since December 24th, 2011. And it was the Niners that took 'em down.


It is imperative that SF gets home field advantage if there's any chance of making the Super Bowl, especially when the Niners are notoriously bad at getting plays off in time when playing road games.

 

[HighTopFade]

Hopefully the Chargers reminded the 49ers of how that's done.

Watching that game reminded me of the Game Manager. Not too exciting, but got the job done.

 

[SeattleNinersFan]

Yes, but I don't think there was any way in hell, with the current roster, we were going into Seattle and getting a win. Why show your hand? We could have tried to bluff our way through the game with tricks etc, but it just puts it on film for future opponents.

Losing to Indy sucked, but the offense didn't do anything different. The defense shit the bed. If the plan is to ride the defense in the early part of the season, they let us down in that game.

Ultimately though, I think most of felt getting through the first 6 weeks at 4-2 would be a successful start to the season. We knew Seattle was going to be virtually impossible to beat in Seattle, especially without Crabtree. indy is better than anyone expected, but Houston is way worse. Looking at an opening stretch with 4 playoff teams from the previous year and the other two being division matchups is a ridiculous way to start.

I think we're right about where we expected to be, and am hoping we're going to unleash the offense in the last quarter of the season.

49er opponents record: 20-14 (1 team with a losing record)
Seattle opponents record: 15-19 (2 teams with winning records)

while I would love to have a better record 4-2 is not bad considering that we have not had the cakewalk schedule that Seattle has had so far.

 

[TobyTyler]

Each win isn't equally important though. Playoff wins are more valuable. My theory is that the staff felt they could win with their defense early, so keep the offense very vanilla. Once the weapons return, late in the season, then the offense opens up and we catch teams off guard. Harbaugh et al, hopefully, are playing the long game.

I meant to say that the sixteen games that it takes to get to the playoiffs are all of equal value. Not saying your theory isn't correct, but I still think the time to be innovative is when we are weak. I'm not sure they'd risk throwing a game away by restricting the offense. Its more likely, to me at least, that the offensive restrictions are due to the calibur of players they have now on the outside besides Boldin.

 

[TobyTyler]

Actually Seattle is damn near invincible when they're playing at the clink. They haven't lost a home game since December 24th, 2011. And it was the Niners that took 'em down.


It is imperative that SF gets home field advantage if there's any chance of making the Super Bowl, especially when the Niners are notoriously bad at getting plays off in time when playing road games.

They haven't lost but to me they actually did lose to GB last year and look how vulnerable they looked against a mediocre team like the Titans last week.

 

[imac_21]

I meant to say that the sixteen games that it takes to get to the playoiffs are all of equal value. Not saying your theory isn't correct, but I still think the time to be innovative is when we are weak. I'm not sure they'd risk throwing a game away by restricting the offense. Its more likely, to me at least, that the offensive restrictions are due to the calibur of players they have now on the outside besides Boldin.

I think we would be risking throwing a game away by being incredibly open on offense with our current roster. If we put use the 2011 "don't screw it up" offense, and trust the defense to win games, then get explosive when we have the "real" roster back I think we're in real good shape.

Also, if this is the approach the staff has decided to take I would say it's working to this point. There's a lot of talk about how our offense is struggling, how Kap has gone backwards this year etc. yet we're 4-2. If the offense is running with the restrictor plate off, and the assumption is that we just can't get it done offensively, then when guys come back, we are in really good shape.

I agree that the calibre of players is a contributing factor in the restrictions, but it's because we are holding back until we're at "full strength."

 

[TobyTyler]

I think we would be risking throwing a game away by being incredibly open on offense with our current roster. If we put use the 2011 "don't screw it up" offense, and trust the defense to win games, then get explosive when we have the "real" roster back I think we're in real good shape.

Also, if this is the approach the staff has decided to take I would say it's working to this point. There's a lot of talk about how our offense is struggling, how Kap has gone backwards this year etc. yet we're 4-2. If the offense is running with the restrictor plate off, and the assumption is that we just can't get it done offensively, then when guys come back, we are in really good shape.

I agree that the calibre of players is a contributing factor in the restrictions, but it's because we are holding back until we're at "full strength."

I hope you are right but sometimes that "switch" is not easy just to turn on when you need it.

 

[imac_21]

I hope you are right but sometimes that "switch" is not easy just to turn on when you need it.

We'd be doing more than just flipping a switch. We're greatly upgrading the circuit too. If we want to compare it to a car engine, we aren't just trying to shift gears, we're getting a new engine in the car, then shifting gears.

I think we can agree that a WR corps of Crabtree, Boldin, Manningham, Patton and Wilson is better than Boldin, Wilson, Baldwin, Moore and Osgood.

 

[yossarian]

I just can't get my mind around Harbaugh not doing everything he can to beat Pete Carroll, especially if he could beat him in Seattle. I can see the theory otherwise, but I also can't see Harbaugh admitting that realistically he had no shot of beating Carroll in Seattle.

 

[TobyTyler]

We'd be doing more than just flipping a switch. We're greatly upgrading the circuit too. If we want to compare it to a car engine, we aren't just trying to shift gears, we're getting a new engine in the car, then shifting gears.

I think we can agree that a WR corps of Crabtree, Boldin, Manningham, Patton and Wilson is better than Boldin, Wilson, Baldwin, Moore and Osgood.

Who is Wilson?

 

[threelittleturds]

It would be nice if that were the case, but I don't believe it is. I think the Harbaugh and Roman tried to shift the offense from a power running attack to a Kaepernick centered offense. The kind of offenses you see in GB, Denver, New Orleans, and New England*. But what the 49ers and New England have found out this year is that you need a really talented WR corps to be a QB-centered offense.

Week 1: It worked because GB's secondary is one of the worst in the league and they sold out to stop the run because they gave up over 300 yards to the 49ers in the playoffs and if they did that again they'd all be fired.

Week 2: Tried the QB-centered offense and the offense was destroyed by arguably the best secondary in the NFL and a very talented front seven.

Week 3: Realized they should run more and did so right away and just dominated the Colts, but then tried to get back to QB-first offense and sputtered out the rest of the day and lost big.

Week 4-6: Gave up on Kaepernick first offense and went back to power rushing... won every game and Kaepernick has improved each week as a supporting character to the power rushing star.

Maybe if Mario and Crabs come back as effective weapons it will work later in the year. As long as VD and Boldin are both still healthy. I just don't think it will work with Goodwin at center. The dude is letting everyone past him and pressure up the middle is the best way to kill a QB-first offense.

 

[TobyTyler]

It would be nice if that were the case, but I don't believe it is. I think the Harbaugh and Roman tried to shift the offense from a power running attack to a Kaepernick centered offense. The kind of offenses you see in GB, Denver, New Orleans, and New England*. But what the 49ers and New England have found out this year is that you need a really talented WR corps to be a QB-centered offense.

Week 1: It worked because GB's secondary is one of the worst in the league and they sold out to stop the run because they gave up over 300 yards to the 49ers in the playoffs and if they did that again they'd all be fired.

Week 2: Tried the QB-centered offense and the offense was destroyed by arguably the best secondary in the NFL and a very talented front seven.

Week 3: Realized they should run more and did so right away and just dominated the Colts, but then tried to get back to QB-first offense and sputtered out the rest of the day and lost big.

Week 4-6: Gave up on Kaepernick first offense and went back to power rushing... won every game and Kaepernick has improved each week as a supporting character to the power rushing star.

Maybe if Mario and Crabs come back as effective weapons it will work later in the year. As long as VD and Boldin are both still healthy. I just don't think it will work with Goodwin at center. The dude is letting everyone past him and pressure up the middle is the best way to kill a QB-first offense.

I agree. I think Harbaugh, being a former QB, deep down, wants a QB-centered offense.