The Quality Start Thread

[MilkSpiller22]

What was the MLB ERA for bullies?

2014 MLB average ERA was 3.74

 

[calsnowskier]

2014 MLB average ERA was 3.74

That doesn't answer the question. I am asking for bully ERA specifically. I can't find it, fwiw.

Do you know if the MLB stats DB is still available for free? Like I said, I have not seen a copy of it in years.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

That doesn't answer the question. I am asking for bully ERA specifically. I can't find it, fwiw.

Do you know if the MLB stats DB is still available for free? Like I said, I have not seen a copy of it in years.

what is bully ERA??

 

[calsnowskier]

2014 MLB average ERA was 3.74

But to advance the argument...

Let's assume the bully ERA was 3.74. That means they will give up more than 1 run in the final 3 innings of the game (approx. 1.25, actually). Therefore, I would prefer the 9/4 to the 6/3 since I would have the same result, but still have a fresh bully.

 

[calsnowskier]

what is bully ERA??

sorry...

Bullpen ERA

 

[MilkSpiller22]

But to advance the argument...

Let's assume the bully ERA was 3.74. That means they will give up more than 1 run in the final 3 innings of the game (approx. 1.25, actually). Therefore, I would prefer the 9/4 to the 6/3 since I would have the same result, but still have a fresh bully.

but even if the bullpen ERA is 3.00+ does it matter?? there is still a good chance that they also give up 0 runs... again, theoretical wins really makes the assumption that a bullpen gives up 0 runs...

what would you rather have let up 4 runs and have almost no chance of a win without extra innings or 3 runs and rely on your bullpen?? even if the odds are that the results will be the same, don't you want to take the chance that you don't need extra innings to win??

 

[calsnowskier]

If you want to add in the situation...

A SP would not go 9/4 unless he was already winning. I acknowledge that kinda gets outside the scope, but it is reality.

I am also a bit more of a big-picture kind of guy rather than a results guy when it comes to the regular season. Even if the team loses the game, I would prefer the 9/4 because of the rest it gives the bully.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If you want to add in the situation...

A SP would not go 9/4 unless he was already winning. I acknowledge that kinda gets outside the scope, but it is reality.

I am also a bit more of a big-picture kind of guy rather than a results guy when it comes to the regular season. Even if the team loses the game, I would prefer the 9/4 because of the rest it gives the bully.

i dont disagree... but that is why i am saying you have to understand the statistic first... QS is pretty much a theoretical win, if you don't have that win then you can not get a QS... doesn't matter if the pitcher had the better game...

 

[calsnowskier]

I understand the stat, and, like you, believe it is under-valued.

I just believe that it is a bit quirky and I understand, at least, some of the complaints about it.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I understand the stat, and, like you, believe it is under-valued.

I just believe that it is a bit quirky and I understand, at least, some of the complaints about it.

I dont understand the complaints about it, i mean i understand what the complainers think they are saying, but most of their complaints are because they are not willing to understand the statistic...

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't go that far. I fully believe that a 9/4 is a better game than a 6/3. I can accept that level of error. I just know that it is, in fact, an error in the stat.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I don't go that far. I fully believe that a 9/4 is a better game than a 6/3. I can accept that level of error. I just know that it is, in fact, an error in the stat.

i am not sold that it is better for the Team... but even if it was, its ok for a stat to have flaws, no stat is perfect...

 

[DragonfromTO]

meant 3 bases. But you get the point I was making that baseball is a game of 3s.

I would say that there are 4 bases. Saying that home plate doesn't count seems like saying that humans have 4 fingers on each hand and not counting thumbs.

But really "there's a bunch of other shit grouped in threes so this should be too" is not really an actual argument for the parameters of the stat anyway.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I would say that there are 4 bases. Saying that home plate doesn't count seems like saying that humans have 4 fingers on each hand and not counting thumbs.

But really "there's a bunch of other shit grouped in threes so this should be too" is not really an actual argument for the parameters of the stat anyway.

its not THE argument, its an argument agains the arbitrary complaint...

 

[calsnowskier]

Why are there only 3 outs in an inning? That's awfully arbitrary...

 

[DragonfromTO]

but even if the bullpen ERA is 3.00+ does it matter?? there is still a good chance that they also give up 0 runs... again, theoretical wins really makes the assumption that a bullpen gives up 0 runs...

what would you rather have let up 4 runs and have almost no chance of a win without extra innings or 3 runs and rely on your bullpen?? even if the odds are that the results will be the same, don't you want to take the chance that you don't need extra innings to win??

Anyone know what the winning percentage was in 2014 of teams giving up exactly 4 runs in 9 innings? I'm guessing it was way higher than "almost no chance of a win" and probably over 50%.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well, if the MLB ERA was, in fact 3.78 (I am trusting Milk on this), I would guess that record was in fact UNDER 50%...

 

[DragonfromTO]

Well, if the MLB ERA was, in fact 3.78 (I am trusting Milk on this), I would guess that record was in fact UNDER 50%...

Average runs per game across both leagues was 4.07. So while I don't know what the W% actually was, you'd guess it would be slightly above 50%, not under.

 

[calsnowskier]

Average runs per game across both leagues was 4.07. So while I don't know what the W% actually was, you'd guess it would be slightly above 50%, not under.

Good point.

ERA only looks at EARNED runs. My bad.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Average runs per game across both leagues was 4.07. So while I don't know what the W% actually was, you'd guess it would be slightly above 50%, not under.

yes, but that average includes extra innings too... in a 9 inning game it is less...