The Quality Start Thread

[Darkstone42]

"theories" don't win pennants. If you want to claim ERA doesn't matter than go ahead , but it's only irrelevant in your QS theory. ERA is all that matters and all these stats these days are meant to try to out do the ERA stat. It hasn't worked yet. Further , if anyone is measuring a starter it better be from 7 inn. on becuz if a guy can't do that the measurement is "failure"". In todays game we see at least 4 pitchers a nite for each side which is downright embarrassing to the game. If you wanna go by your stat as the end all that's fine , but there's a lot more to measure than that.

I don't find increased bullpen usage embarrassing. It's optimizing. Often, a mediocre reliever for one inning gives you a better chance to prevent runs than a good starting pitcher seeing the lineup for the third time. There are a lot of numbers which support this. The teams should be trying to win, and using your bullpen helps you win.

Honestly, a fully optimized approach may actually be to pull your starter after four or five so he only sees the lineup once or twice. The nice side of this is that you can use the starter sooner, especially if he was efficient, so with the Dodgers, for example, they'd get to send Kershaw out there for 4 or 5 innings (depending on his efficiency) every three days instead of every five, using other starters to fill in for two or three innings at a time. Now you're taking away basically half of the game for your opponent every three days, throwing other quality arms most of the rest of the time, too.

But you'd need to build your staff to do it, and most staffs aren't built to do it. We're not going to see that approach anytime soon.

But even if we get to that point, it's not "an embarrassment to the game" if it makes pitchers more effective and gives the teams employing the strategy a better chance to win the game. It's good strategy, good coaching, and playing to win, which is exactly what teams should be doing.

The best way to think of a QS is:

assuming your offense scores 4 runs(this is a fair assumption using historical numbers), do you leave the game with the lead

After all, you need to have the lead for your team to get the win...

The downside is that you're ignoring current run environments in favor of historical ones. A team in the modern game who scores 4 R/G is much better offensively relative to the league than one who scored 4 R/G in the early 2000s.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Am I wrong though? If you leave the game after 6 innings having given up 3 runs and your team is such that it scores runs at an average rate, is your team not more likely to be down than up when you leave the game? It almost seems like you're giving the pitcher credit for allowing fewer runs in 6 innings than a team scores in 9 innings, but that's not a level comparison.

that question is more difficult to answer... the problem is that because QS is a constant stat, it can't deal with reality, and has to deal with a constant value that is the same for all pitchers... Like we stated in 2014 the MLB average runs per game was 4.07, and historically speaking the lowest it has ever been is 3.38 and has rarely been over 5... so it is fair to make that constant number a 3...

Many of the better offenses, would much rather have 9/4, because they average more than 4 runs per game, but again, we can't deal with reality...

in a 6/3, at least there is a chance to keep that theoretical win, i will give you that the probability might not be great to have that win...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The downside is that you're ignoring current run environments in favor of historical ones. A team in the modern game who scores 4 R/G is much better offensively relative to the league than one who scored 4 R/G in the early 2000s.

well, you have to otherwise it would not be a constant that is the same for all starting pitchers...

 

[DragonfromTO]

that question is more difficult to answer... the problem is that because QS is a constant stat, it can't deal with reality, and has to deal with a constant value that is the same for all pitchers... Like we stated in 2014 the MLB average runs per game was 4.07, and historically speaking the lowest it has ever been is 3.38 and has rarely been over 5... so it is fair to make that constant number a 3...

Many of the better offenses, would much rather have 9/4, because they average more than 4 runs per game, but again, we can't deal with reality...

in a 6/3, at least there is a chance to keep that theoretical win, i will give you that the probability might not be great to have that win...

Isn't the pitcher who last 2.2 and gives up 3 also giving his team a chance if that's how we're defining it? Both are asking the bullpen to overperform, one is just asking them to do it for a little longer.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Isn't the pitcher who last 2.2 and gives up 3 also giving his team a chance if that's how we're defining it? Both are asking the bullpen to overperform, one is just asking them to do it for a little longer.

Yes, but thats where the other qualification takes place... You must go 6 or more innings... and that is also a fair # even if it seems minimal...

5 innings is minimum to get a win, why?? because after 5 inning it is now an official game, and that is because more than half the game has been played... 6 innings is the minimum FULL inning better than the minimum...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

BUMP!!!

Just re-read this thread... enjoyed it!!! so for us stat freaks...

 

[navamind]

Crazy to think that the phrase "6 inning pitcher" has gone from being considered an insult to being considered a workhorse. The league average IP/GS for starting pitchers is currently 5.1. It was 4.8 last year. 5.2 in 2019.

 

[molsaniceman]

Crazy to think that the phrase "6 inning pitcher" has gone from being considered an insult to being considered a workhorse. The league average IP/GS for starting pitchers is currently 5.1. It was 4.8 last year. 5.2 in 2019.

1920 7.4 ip with 88 QS per team in 154 games
1960 6.4 with 80 per team
2000 5.9 with 75 per team
2019 5.2 with 60 per team

its only going to go down cause its better for your pitching

As for QS its a good gauge nothing more

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Crazy to think that the phrase "6 inning pitcher" has gone from being considered an insult to being considered a workhorse. The league average IP/GS for starting pitchers is currently 5.1. It was 4.8 last year. 5.2 in 2019.

its keep on going down and they think moving the mound is a good thing?? That's craziness...

 

[YourFriendGannon]

its keep on going down and they think moving the mound is a good thing?? That's craziness...

The batting average across all of baseball is .233 right now. The average pitcher is throwing more than one strikeout per inning now.

The shorter starts don't have much to do with this experiment. They're happening because of pitch counts, an increase in staff by committee, pitchers tend to fare much worse the third time through an order... and pertinent to this year many pitchers are being limited because of the shortened 2020 season.

 

[navamind]

I'd imagine the average will come up, but it was merely .245 last year. The lowest mark in MLB since 1972 (.244)

 

[MilkSpiller22]

The batting average across all of baseball is .233 right now. The average pitcher is throwing more than one strikeout per inning now.

The shorter starts don't have much to do with this experiment. They're happening because of pitch counts, an increase in staff by committee, pitchers tend to fare much worse the third time through an order... and pertinent to this year many pitchers are being limited because of the shortened 2020 season.

except it does... if you push back the mound, it hurts pitchers... makes it harder to pitch... and therefore they will continue to pitch less innings...

so if you want to see pitchers go deeper into games, this is not a good rule...

 

[YourFriendGannon]

except it does... if you push back the mound, it hurts pitchers... makes it harder to pitch... and therefore they will continue to pitch less innings...

so if you want to see pitchers go deeper into games, this is not a good rule...

If you expanded the area of the strike zone slightly in conjunction with this, I honestly don't see what difference it'd make after the adjustment period. Pitching has gotten easier anyway because of the defensive shifts. Most offense players don't adjust to shifts, maybe more would if they had more time to react making the game more diverse.