The Niners and NFL Thread

[nuraman00]

Kaep is no comparison, here are the numbers for the 7 starts and it extrapolated. It isn't close. The record would be 11.4 - 4.6 so I indicated "> 11-5" Didn't want to put "11-4-1" because I hate ties and one might think I was putting the Rams tie game on him.

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What is 11.4 and 4.6 referring to?

 

[nuraman00]

I heard claims that Kaepernick could "throw the long ball", but I didn't really see it. I only watched the GB and Baltimore games. Wasn't paying attention during the Atlanta game.

I didn't see many QBs throw successful long passes. Not Rodgers, Kaepernick. Flacco seemed to throw them longer on average, when they were successful. Brady didn't even seem to throw that many long successful passes. I know he's supposed to be good at them, so maybe I just saw a bad game. And, it is a team game.

I don't know what any of the numbers are.

Maybe someone can post something like average receiving yards per successful catch.

I don't know how often a successful long pass occurs. Maybe someone can define what a "long" one is too.

Right now, it seems to occur with the same frequency as maybe a 4-point play in the NBA, or a triple in MLB. Maybe some games it happens a lot, and some games none.

Again, I don't watch football very much, and usually there's too much action going on for me to keep track of what's happening, so maybe long successful passes were happening, and I just don't remember them, or didn't notice them.

I make the distinction between successful ones and unsuccessful ones, because I don't care if someone failed at a long one, I just want to know if they can make them.

 

[MHSL82]

What is 11.4 and 4.6 referring to?

5-2 record is a .714 record multiplied by 16 games in an NFL season = 11.4 wins and 4.6 losses. Rounding down is 11. Rounding losses is 5. But 11.4 > 11, so I indicated the record as > 11-5.

 

[MHSL82]

I heard claims that Kaepernick could "throw the long ball", but I didn't really see it. I only watched the GB and Baltimore games. Wasn't paying attention during the Atlanta game.

I didn't see many QBs throw successful long passes. Not Rodgers, Kaepernick. Flacco seemed to throw them longer on average, when they were successful. Brady didn't even seem to throw that many long successful passes. I know he's supposed to be good at them, so maybe I just saw a bad game. And, it is a team game.

Both QBs can throw far enough if the point is just to get the ball there. Alex can throw 70 yards. Kaep can throw more than 70, but there aren't any 70+ passes in the NFL (in the air). But Kaep's stronger arm lends to better velocity/speed of the ball getting there. If you throw the ball just to get there, the defense can intercept better because the ball is in the air so long. Better velocity allows a QB to get it there so quickly that the defender is unable to defend. Then, it's just a matter of accuracy. If you have stronger arm for better velocity, you are more willing to take the shots because more opportunities are available to you. Hence, Kaep would have more deep passes in theory over almost anyone, not just Alex.

Alex Smith protects the ball and has a weaker arm for velocity. Hence, it is smarter for him not to attempt the deeper passes because doing so would be more risky than Kaep throwing it. Obviously, when I say deep, I mean over 40-50. Alex is a smart guy, he plays within his capabilities physically, but it can also tend to a limited offense. What looks defended to Alex, is defended, but isn't defended to Kaep because Kaep could "beat the coverage" by requiring less time to get it there.

 

[MHSL82]

I don't know how often a successful long pass occurs. Maybe someone can define what a "long" one is too.

Right now, it seems to occur with the same frequency as maybe a 4-point play in the NBA, or a triple in MLB. Maybe some games it happens a lot, and some games none.

...

I make the distinction between successful ones and unsuccessful ones, because I don't care if someone failed at a long one, I just want to know if they can make them.

NFL teams don't throw deep often because it's riskier and harder to be accurate. But the thing is, you want to let teams know that there is that risk. They can't move closer to stop the run because otherwise they are leaving the deep pass open. With Alex, he both did not pose that great of risk to the defense (not zero, but average or less) and seemed unwilling to take the risks to the offense and did not demonstrate great chemistry with the receivers. You can throw the ball to the "right place" but if the receiver doesn't get there at the same time, it's pointless. QBs and receivers are interdependent.

Kaep has not thrown that many deep passes (defined as 20+ yards in the air) in general, but it was almost twice as much as Alex did and was up there in the league ranks, per snap (he didn't play the whole year). He completed a good percentage. Kaep has not been as good on short passes, as he sometimes throws too hard or passes them up for an opportunity for a deeper pass, which is either defended or he has to run or gets sacked. Obviously, sometimes he passes up a short one and gets the long one.

Alex was taught to just keep the ball moving. Shorter passes get first downs because they are caught more often. Changing the passing play into a run if he sees the defense well is great, it moves forward. It uses clock, so the other team gets the ball less and the defense gets a rest. You can win this way. It just is harder and a failure on the first attempt is just as bad as Kaep's way, without the reward of a deep pass connecting. Plus, the defense can stop you if they don't need to defend the long ball, as they can get closer to you without that great of risk. This hurts the run. If they think you won't throw deep and then you do, you can exploit it, so maybe that's what the coaches did with Kaep, make people think the offense is the same, short stuff and then bam. It's hard when you are down a lot because it's like chess. They are expecting deep passes, so what do you do, take the shorter ones.

 

[nuraman00]

NFL teams don't throw deep often because it's riskier and harder to be accurate. But the thing is, you want to let teams know that there is that risk. They can't move closer to stop the run because otherwise they are leaving the deep pass open. With Alex, he both did not pose that great of risk to the defense (not zero, but average or less) and seemed unwilling to take the risks to the offense and did not demonstrate great chemistry with the receivers. You can throw the ball to the "right place" but if the receiver doesn't get there at the same time, it's pointless. QBs and receivers are interdependent.

Kaep has not thrown that many deep passes (defined as 20+ yards in the air) in general, but it was almost twice as much as Alex did and was up there in the league ranks, per snap (he didn't play the whole year). He completed a good percentage. Kaep has not been as good on short passes, as he sometimes throws too hard or passes them up for an opportunity for a deeper pass, which is either defended or he has to run or gets sacked. Obviously, sometimes he passes up a short one and gets the long one.

Alex was taught to just keep the ball moving. Shorter passes get first downs because they are caught more often. Changing the passing play into a run if he sees the defense well is great, it moves forward. It uses clock, so the other team gets the ball less and the defense gets a rest. You can win this way. It just is harder and a failure on the first attempt is just as bad as Kaep's way, without the reward of a deep pass connecting. Plus, the defense can stop you if they don't need to defend the long ball, as they can get closer to you without that great of risk. This hurts the run. If they think you won't throw deep and then you do, you can exploit it, so maybe that's what the coaches did with Kaep, make people think the offense is the same, short stuff and then bam. It's hard when you are down a lot because it's like chess. They are expecting deep passes, so what do you do, take the shorter ones.

How did Rodgers, Brady, Flacco, Kaepernick, and Manning compare, in the playoffs?

 

[MHSL82]

I don't know what any of the numbers are.

Maybe someone can post something like average receiving yards per successful catch.

Alex completed 70.2% of his passes this year (not on the chart because that was some from last year, some from this year). 71.2% is the record, ever. A good percentage is 60-70. 70+ is great and has only been done 2 times. Alex's 70 is a bit different than the other, because his passes were shorter in the air. It's not a reflection of him being pin-point accurate, just efficient with the ball. He took longer passes, too, just not as much. Kaep's 62.5% is good, especially for a first year QB. As you can see, Alex started in the 50's. His rookie year, where he didn't play a full 16 was even worse. Andrew Luck's percentage isn't good but he took more risky passes.

YPA is yards per attempt. Total yards for the season divided by pass attempts. You don't divide by catches. It shows efficiency. Smith this year was 8.0 and Kaep's was 8.4. The record in the modern NFL is 9.2. The average is around 7.0. In the last 16 games, Smith was 7.5, but this year in 8 games, it was 8.0. Thus, he was improving. Kaep was better.

QB rating is flawed but accepted by most. The perfect game is 158.3. Alex got 157.1 and 156.2 in two games last year. It's an efficiency stat that takes completion percentage, YPA, TD%, and INT% into account. This year, Alex was third best in the league and Kaep was 6th best. Neither Alex nor Kaep threw enough passes to qualify for the stats page, so you won't find them there. Alex was 104.1 and Kaep was 99.9. In the last 16 games, Alex was 96, so he has improved in the second half of those 16. Average is 85.

 

[MHSL82]

How did Rodgers, Brady, Flacco, Kaepernick, and Manning compare, in the playoffs?

THIS year, it was Flacco > Ryan > Wilson > Kaepernick > Rodgers > Manning > Schaub > Brady. Out of your 5 QBs, it was Flacco >>> Kaepernick > Rodgers > Manning >> Brady. 2012 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

But, in my opinion by watching the games, it was Flacco >> Kaepernick >>> Wilson >> Rodgers > Brady >>> Manning. Manning threw 2 interceptions, once at the end of the game in OT. And he fumbled in the 4th Quarter.

Flacco tied Montana for most TDs in the playoffs without an interception. Kaepernick led two comebacks and did a lot with his legs and good rating. Alex was 101.0 last year and Kaep was 100.9 this year, but Alex got his rating through no INTs (5 TDs and 0 INTs versus Kaep's 4 and 2). Kaep got his by YPA and better completion percentage.

 

[nuraman00]

THIS year, it was Flacco > Ryan > Wilson > Kaepernick > Rodgers > Manning > Schaub > Brady. Out of your 5 QBs, it was Flacco >>> Kaepernick > Rodgers > Manning >> Brady. 2012 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN

But, in my opinion by watching the games, it was Flacco >> Kaepernick >>> Wilson >> Rodgers > Brady >>> Manning. Manning threw 2 interceptions, once at the end of the game in OT. And he fumbled in the 4th Quarter.

Flacco tied Montana for most TDs in the playoffs without an interception. Kaepernick led two comebacks and did a lot with his legs and good rating. Alex was 101.0 last year and Kaep was 100.9 this year, but Alex got his rating through no INTs (5 TDs and 0 INTs versus Kaep's 4 and 2). Kaep got his by YPA and better completion percentage.

Wow, so what I saw actually happened (according to the stats). Brady and Rodgers weren't that good.

And Flacco was good.

What were their YPAs in the playoffs?

And total completed passes, and average completion per game (since some played more games than others)?

 

[MHSL82]

Wow, so what I saw actually happened (according to the stats). Brady and Rodgers weren't that good.

And Flacco was good.

What were their YPAs in the playoffs?

And total completed passes, and average completion per game (since some played more games than others)?

Here it is sorted by YPA: 2012 NFL Player Passing Stats

Here it is sorted by completions: 2012 NFL Player Passing Stats

I think completion percentage is more relevant: 2012 NFL Player Passing Stats

I know you asked for completions per game, but I don't want to type them all out and don't think that anyone considers that when comparing QBs. The top seven played two games or more. Only Flacco and Kaep played 3.

 

[MHSL82]

This is a good balanced article, in my opinion.

It doesn't say, "wow, Smith is the most coveted FA QB out there" and it doesn't say "man, no one wants Smith."

It doesn't say "the 49ers owe Smith for his loyalty and professionalism" but it also discusses the possibility of some negative side effects of keeping him (I only believe in the money aspect, but it's good to state other things as possibilities).

I don't think it oversells Smith's value last year, but it also acknowledges some context to last year's free agency.

It also puts some perspective on his salary.

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The Five Myths About the 49ers and Alex Smith

Gentlemen, start your fibbing.

There are only two sentences you need to keep in mind as the Alex Smith Affair cranks up over the next four weeks: 1.) The 49ers want to trade Smith. 2.) Smith would rather be released and become a free agent. The rest is fluff designed to influence one of those outcomes.

To wit:

1.) The 49ers would be perfectly happy and perfectly capable of having both Colin Kaepernick and Smith on the roster this year.

That's been the party line for the last month or so. However, as The Merc's Tim Kawakami pointed out this weekend, the risk of locker-room turmoil outweighs the insurance of having two starter-quality quarterbacks on the roster. Smith played nice when he lost his job this past season, but it's difficult to see even Smith, the ultimate good soldier, biting his tongue under this scenario. It's also hard to see Smith allies like Joe Staley, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis not speaking out in favor of their buddy. Teams usually aren't willing to trade for a player who will be released anyway, which is why the 49ers must create the illusion that they will keep Smith. (See: any trade negotiation ever).

2.) There's a weak trade market for Smith.

This ultimately may be how this situation concludes, but it's far too early to report this now. There can be no trades until the start of the new league year on March 12. As of now, the consensus seems to be there are no sure-fire, top-flight quarterbacks in the draft. If that is reinforced at the combine, which begins this week, it will increase trade possibilities. The Chiefs have the first pick in the draft. In today's Kansas City Star, general manager Mike Dorsey said there's no consensus on whether there are any first-round quarterbacks much less No. 1 overall quarterbacks. The Chiefs could trade for the Eagles Nick Foles. Like the 49ers with Smith, the Eagles are saying they'd prefer to hold onto Foles to drive up his trade value.

3.) Smith was a free agent last season and there was no market for him.

Yes, Smith technically was a free agent in 2012, but there needs to be a large asterisk next to that designation. Everyone in the league assumed the 49ers would re-sign Smith because the 49ers said they would do so - Remember Jim Harbaugh-heart-Alex Smith at Pebble Beach last year? - and because Smith said he wanted to be back. It was only when the 49ers offered Smith a mediocre deal and pursued Peyton Manning that Smith figured he ought to make himself available on the open market. But that was nearly a week into free agency, and most teams already had made their plans.

4. The 49ers owe it to Smith to release him.

Last year's negotiations with Smith should make it perfectly clear that the 49ers do not make decisions based on relationships and that any player who thinks they do will get burned. The 49ers' only obligation - as they see it - is to make the team stronger. Which is why trading their one-time starting quarterback, and getting something in return, is their top priority.

5. Teams would be reluctant to trade for Smith because his salary is prohibitive.

Barring a sign-and-trade deal, a team that trades for Smith would get him for the next two years at base salaries of $7.5 million per year. In you-and-me money, that's a fortune. When it comes to NFL starting quarterbacks, it's a pittance. Smith's salary this year, for instance, ranked 20th among NFL starters.

- Matt Barrows

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers - Niner Insider Blog » Alex Smith, anyone? Chiefs GM doesn't see clear-cut, first-round QB in draft

This could apply to getting Foles, it could also not be a true statement of what their situation is. Just passing along. The combine should help both in determining this and the teams will likely talk about stuff including trade possibilities - still not going to listen to the media yet.a

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“There is no quarterback where personnel guys can definitely say, ‘He’s a first-round pick,’” Dorsey said. “There were so many inconsistencies in the collective group. There was not one guy that stood up and said, ‘I’m the guy in the position this year.’ There really wasn’t one clear-cut guy.

“There are too many technical flaws, scheme flaws. There are so many different variables that there are a lot of people all over the place on naming the top four or five guys and who those guys would be.”

Assuming Dorsey’s assessment is genuine, it would seem likely Kansas City would look to a veteran to improve its quarterback play in 2013. In 2012, the Chiefs went 2-14 while Matt Cassel and free-agent-to-be Brady Quinn each started eight games. The duo combined to throw eight touchdowns, 20 interceptions and post a 63.9 passer rating.

 

[MHSL82]

Husain Abdullah signs with Kansas City Chiefs after taking year off for pilgrimage to Mecca - ESPN

"The Chiefs have signed former Vikings safety Husain Abdullah, who gave up football last season to make a pilgrimage to Mecca, in an attempt to add depth to their defensive backfield."

Not sure how his pilgrimage to Mecca was supposed to add depth to their defensive backfield. Kind of a weird attempt.

Sad that I expect it, but I'm kind of surprised that there aren't any negative comments about Muslims in the comment section (no comments at all).

 

[MHSL82]

Michael Vick Not Sure He's Got Another 4-12 Season In Him

PHILADELPHIA—Newly re-signed Eagles quarterback Michael Vick, 32, revealed in a candid interview Thursday that he’s not confident he has another 4-12 season left in him. “If you’re asking me to be totally honest, I’m not sure lightning can strike twice and I’ll be able to perform like I did last season again,” said Vick, adding that given his age and the particular situation in Philadelphia, most players would feel fortunate to reach two wins. “Now, don’t get me wrong, I’m going to play my hardest in hopes of reaching six or seven wins, but after being in the league for as long as I have, you begin to realize what’s possible and what’s not.” In the wake of Vick’s comments, second-year backup quarterback Nick Foles said that if the situation arises, he’s more than ready to step in for any number of hard-fought losses.

 

[MHSL82]

Female will compete at regional combine for first time

This woman is competing for a spot as a kicker, so it's not as far fetched as any other position. Still is a long shot, but most soccer players who didn't play in college as a football player would be a long shot.

 

[MHSL82]

If you are not familiar with Manti Teo's story or the Niners time with Singletary, you won't get this as much, but someone talked about Singletary meeting with Teo and I added this:

"I won't tolerate people who think it is all about texts, AOL, and Skype, when it's about holding hands and at least making eye contact. And you cannot fall in love with someone who doesn't exist, and when they get sick, don't bother to go see them. No, this is what I believe, I come from the old school, I believe this: I would rather date ten people and waste time, until we've got to date someone else, rather than date a hottie, when I know she doesn't exist. Cannot eat with them. Cannot fuck with them. Cannot prenump with them. Can't do it. I want reasonable players.

When someone's tries to fool you, you gotta hit 'em in the mouf. Three yards and a cloud of dust.

You got to have a quarterback, I mean, real girlfriend."

(I was going to throw in a reference to getting married before sex with even the real ones, but nah. I also could not decide a good substitute for I want winners.)

Yes, I know it was strained, but I applied it from the whole speech:

[YOUTUBE]EB5-yJM3vJc[/YOUTUBE]

 

[MHSL82]

If Alex Smith is still on the team April 1st, it would be a cruel April Fool's Day joke (for all involved) for the team to announce they've decided to keep Alex and trade Kaep to Arizona. Maybe it being Arizona would spoil the joke, because even that'd be so implausible, but even an obvious joke would be disrespectful to Smith. Wouldn't and shouldn't stop a random fan of April Fool's Day jokes, but should stop the organization.

 

[MHSL82]

Deal For Alex Smith 'Effectively Complete' According To Report

"Alex Smith may already have his ticket out of San Francisco.

Now he just has to wait a couple of weeks to get it punched.

According to Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports, a trade for Alex Smith is effectively complete.

The 49ers have expressed to others that a deal for QB Alex Smith is effectively complete. Can’t be finalized til league year begins 3/12

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) February 24, 2013

so it’s not official, both clubs view it at as it’s effectively done. I do not know the other team. KC and JAX are 2 teams that make sense

— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) February 24, 2013

That is a pretty big bombshell, especially considering it comes on the heals of this report from Ian Rapoport that the Chiefs are the team showing the most interest in Smith.

If a deal for Smith is already done then the Chiefs have to be considered the favorite to be the trade partner here. Then again, it is hard to trust anything you hear this time of year. Say, for instance, the Chiefs have offered a third-round pick for Smith. The 49ers, wanting to get more for the QB, could let slip that a deal is basically done, hoping to entice other suitors to get involved in a desperate attempt to outbid the “mystery team.” Heck, it is possible that there isn’t even a deal in place at all and the 49ers are just telling La Canfora that.

Still, this report is likely to send shockwaves through Chiefs Nation.

Do you guys think it is a smokescreen or the real deal?"

 

[MHSL82]

RT @RapSheet: RT @ryanohalloran #jaguars GM Dave Caldwell says via text "not us" who has deal in place for SF QB Alex Smith.

 

[MHSL82]

Since apparently you logged on to check if the Jazz traded anyone, I thought you would get the breaking news here, first, Sackataters.