The next 12 after that ...

[JohnU]

I think we might be seeing 3 or 4 consistently good rotation guys for the Reds.
DeSclafani might be a little more vulnerable than he has shown. He got away with some sloppy pitches against a bad Brewers offense. I will be interested to see if he can pitch with men on base.

Several parts of this team have emerged that aren't likely a trend.
They are going to strike out too much and they're too slow on the bases.
Hamilton is not going to hit better than he did in the past, sadly. He hasn't learned to bunt and he seems content to do everything but that.
Bruce and Byrd are going to be generally useless for lineup churn.
The bench still coughs up chunks.

I see "Gimpy" Gregg has survived the storm and is still on the roster despite showing us that he's not going to be better. Parra, Hoover and Bad-Hop are just going to break our hearts. Jumbo might actually pull
it together.

I'd see a 5-7 out of the next dozen, assuming a split with the Brewers and maybe 2 of 3 from the Cubbians.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Reds bullpen is a bad one. If Bailey is ok health wise, I think there are 4 effective, rotation guys until late summer- when Desclafani has reached his innings wall and Cueto and/or Leake have to be traded before walking into FA.

I have absolute confidence Marquis is going to get shelled into a DL disguise. He needs to bec 5 that can be skipped as often as possible, IMO. I'm hoping Iglasias is a better option, but he isn't going to toss 200 innings either.

There are no cleanup hitters without Mesoraco , unless you are ok with Phillips .260/12 or Bruce .230/25 production. The best answer might be another 2 hitter and backing Votto and Frazier up 1 spot to 3-4. The Reds can't seem to get normal production from anyone playing LF, and without Meso, the C on this team are going to need someone else hitting more than they will.

This team has to pitch first and foremost, and unless the money tree bears quick fruit, the rotation may sink to the current bullpen level by trade deadline.

Im sure the Cubs are improved, but not 20 wins better than last year. I think they'll be .500 plus or minus a few, like everyone in the NLC except the Pitching and PED absent Brewers and the disgustingly superior Cardinals. If the Reds have a rotation of Bailey, Desclafani, Marquis, Iglasias and the flavor of the moment by August, I do not expect to finish above .500 in what might be the worst September record ever.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds can wait until July to bring Iglesias in but no matter where he pitches, he is throwing innings, so it's not like he's stockpiling them. Still, he can go into a 5 slot or a spot start to finish out what will probably be a "wait till next year" year ... again.

Still, yeah ... 3/5 of this rotation is dead in the water in August. Price probably knew that in November. I guess they could always ask Maholm to come back, all being forgiven.

Even if the pitching is league average, the hitting probably isn't ... though the numbers across MLB would suggest that nobody except the Dodgers can hit a baseball. St. Louis doesn't really worry ... they just get a man on 3rd base, get him in and let the other team beat itself.

One would assume that rival teams are going to stop letting Votto beat them ... so we're back to that crap. The rest of the lineup is what it seems to be except for Cozart, who will soon level off to his normal self.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Imagine Desclafani continuing like he has, and Lorenzen doing same next year. Iglasias progressing like Cueto- a little better each year. Wallach starting to hit like his dad. The next Paul O'Niell coming up and Suarez learning to put the ball in play...Geez, we could wind up being the Cubs- sold out and waiting for next year.

I don't think the Reds will win the pennant this year, but I do think they will have some possibly unexpected positive performances, and will find replacements for anyone they lose, given time. They can be interesting this year. One of these years, they'll have enough at one time to get famous for a minute, again. Hopefully, they will have a sense of urgency when that happens.

 

[JohnU]

Inside that system, optimism. The other components that weigh the team down are troublesome.
The main one is deciding what type of team to be in a ballpark that can wreck a hitter's stroke because any old fly ball is a threat. Bruce probably won't stick around and honestly, I don't know if I care.
I am higher on Barnhart than most people are. Hamilton seems to know what to do, just wondering why he isn't doing it.
The turnover for this team will be extreme in 2 years and if you compare the 2010 roster with what you see today, you might also be surprised.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Regrettably, turnover at any mediocre business is high. It might suggest the ownership is paying attention and trying to do something about it, but after a while it may just be a way of keeping things the same, but paying less for it.

 

[JohnU]

The idea that locking up the stars so that the fans can be salved into thinking "this core will be here for a very long time" ... and hence, "they will only get better" ... in MLB, that's a fool's errand. Looking back at all the long-term deals in pro sports, almost all of them resemble a 10-year-old Chevy that you bought new just 10 years ago.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Boxberger probably has more saves than Gregg and Badenhop combined. Grandal is starting for the Dodgers, and Alonzo is hitting .350. Hitters are hitting about .450 against Latos in Miami, though.

Travis Wood is still a LHSP pitching in Wrigley, and Marshall is still missing, like the Reds LHSP.

Volquez looks like Pedro Martinez in KC, and Josh Hamilton looks like the guy no one wants to pay anymore in Aneheim.

Votto, Bailey, Bruce and Mesoraco got injured right after new deals. The Angels signed a .330 hitter in Pujols, who turned into a .260 hitter. All coincidences, I'm sure.

Most trades and long term deals are best evaluated at the end when vision is clearer.