The Marshawn Myth

[blstoker]

I've heard to no end how horrible Seattle's offense would be without Lynch, and in particular Russell Wilson. So, I looked up some numbers:

When Lynch rushes for less than 100 yards in a game (33 times since 2012):

Lynch averages 3.7 ypc (9.1 ypr) and has 25 total TDs
Wilson averages 217.4 ypg, 63.2 comp %, 51:15 TD:INT, 35.9 ypg rushing 5 TDs QB Rating of 99.9
Seattle is 25-8, 24.0 PFPG, 15.6 PAPG

When Lynch rushes for 100 or more (23 times):

Lynch averages 5.8 ypc (10.1 ypr) and has 26 total TDs
Wilson averages 199.8 ypg, 62.8 comp %, 33:17 TD:INT, 41.2 ypg rushing, 8 TDs, QB Rating of 96.1
Seattle is 17-6, 28.5 PFPG, 16.0 PAPG

Russell is at his best when Lynch isn't. In the 10 games that Lynch has run for less than 50 - Russell has a 119.0 QB rating. a 19:2 TD:INT and averages 250 yards passing a game. In fact, in Marshawn's 13 worst rushing outputs since Russell came into the league - Russell has posted a 100 QB rating or higher in 12 of those games (11 were 110 or higher, the other was 109.1).

Despite conventional wisdom, both Lynch and Russell do better when the other isn't putting up great numbers. That's not to say that they both haven't had good games the same game, but it's rare for both to have bad games.

Notable performances for Russell when Lynch didn't rush well (less than 75 yards & 4.3 ypc):

10/14/2012 - 24-23 W Patriots - 293 yards passing, 3 TDs, 133.7 Rating
1/13/2013 - 28-30 L Falcons - 385 yards passing (CH), 2 TDs, 1 INT, 109.1 Rating
9/8/2013 - 12-7 W Panthers - 320 yards passing, 1 TD, 115.7 Rating
11/17/2013 - 41-20 W Vikings - 230 yards passing, 2 TDs. 151.4 Rating (CH, near perfect)
12/2/2013 - 34-7 W Saints - 310 yards passing, 3 TDs, 139.6 Rating
2/2/2014 - (SB XLVIII) 43-8 W Broncos - 206 yards passing, 2 TDs, 123.1 Rating
10/6/2014 - 27-17 W Redskins - 201 yards passing, 2 TDs, 127.3 Rating, 122 yards rushing (CH)
10/19/2014 - 26-28 L Rams - 313 yards passing, 2 TDs, 110.1 Rating, 106 yards rushing
1/10/2015 - 31-17 W Panthers - 268 yards passing, 3 TDs, 149.2 Rating



Interesting side fact, in the 7 games Lynch ran for more than 125 yards, Russell's Rating is in the 70s. (78.5).

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

You do realize that Wilson is at his best when lynch isn't because the opposing team is committing more to the run than the pass, right? When you can run all over teams, the only need for passing is to keep defenses honest. When you can't run on teams, you pass the ball. I don't understand how this disproves the original statement in anyway.

 

[Wolverine830872]

I'll never forget our playoff game against Atlanta in RW's first season. He was lights out and pretty sure Lynch had a bad game. He definitely does step up in those situations, but with that being said, you can say that opponents stuffed the box and forced RW to beat them.

If teams can sit back in dime defenses, it'll be much harder for RW to have success, as it would for any other QB. RW is worth the $20+ mil. But why pay him now? Tag him if we need to. If the haters are right and RW has hit his ceiling, then it would be wise not to commit long term resources to him.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I'll never forget our playoff game against Atlanta in RW's first season. He was lights out and pretty sure Lynch had a bad game. He definitely does step up in those situations, but with that being said, you can say that opponents stuffed the box and forced RW to beat them.

If teams can sit back in dime defenses, it'll be much harder for RW to have success, as it would for any other QB. RW is worth the $20+ mil. But why pay him now? Tag him if we need to. If the haters are right and RW has hit his ceiling, then it would be wise not to commit long term resources to him.

Tagging will end up costing more and Seahawks are going to roll with him anyway.

 

[Wolverine830872]

Tagging will end up costing more and Seahawks are going to roll with him anyway.

MAY end up costing more. If RW wants a more than $25 a year, the tag would be cheaper

 

[HaroldSeattle]

MAY end up costing more. If RW wants a more than $25 a year, the tag would be cheaper

More then 25 million? Then yes, but is he asking for 25 +?

 

[JMR]

It's really a symbiotic relationship between Wilson & Lynch. Nobody in the NFL is a one man gang out there just doing it all with no help. The Luck apologists are always trying to make that claim, but it's just not true.

I don't have a problem when people say RW is helped by Lynch and a strong D, but I do have an issue when they act like Wilson will fall off a cliff when Lynch is gone. Or that once the D declines a bit, RW's performance will as well. That stuff is all baseless guessing.

 

[SonnyCID]

Some people are fucking idiots. They can't recognize a Great player without a ton of hindsight and direct comparisons. 3 years is a long time in football, if Wilson was simply being carried by Lynch, he would have been solidly exposed by now.

 

[SonnyCID]

It's really a symbiotic relationship between Wilson & Lynch. Nobody in the NFL is a one man gang out there just doing it all with no help. The Luck apologists are always trying to make that claim, but it's just not true.

I don't have a problem when people say RW is helped by Lynch and a strong D, but I do have an issue when they act like Wilson will fall off a cliff when Lynch is gone. Or that once the D declines a bit, RW's performance will as well. That stuff is all baseless guessing.

And highly ignorant in regards to the history of QBs in the NFL.

 

[Wolverine830872]

More then 25 million? Then yes, but is he asking for 25 +?

That is the (25?) million dollar question.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

That is the (25?) million dollar question.

I think the Seahawks sign him this offseason, even if it cost 25 million per year. With the built in escalator that franchise tag has, the Seahawks would be paying 30 million third time they apply it.

 

[Screamin12th]

Wilson is as good a passing QB as he is at running and buying time. Thing is when Lynch is running good Wilson doesn't need to pass as much but he also takes more chances in that situation to try and stretch the field. That is by design to try and keep the defense honest and to keep Marshawn going and this tends to lead to more INT's and a lower rating. With out Lynch in the Backfield Teams wouldn't have 8+ men in the box and Wilsons passing numbers would go down. With 8+ men in the Box stopping Lynch His Passing numbers go up. These things go hand in hand.

Thing is Wilson is a better passing QB than most give him credit for, that's really the only thing that the OP shows.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Tagging will end up costing more and Seahawks are going to roll with him anyway.

Agreed entirely. There's nothing great about tagging really (usually done to keep other teams from getting in on your contract negotiation) unless the guy is running out of time and is at a non SUPER high paid position all while having some decent cap room (which Seattle wont. This is a team securing contracts to some top position players in the league).

Problem with tagging a QB is there's nothing fancy about structuring that contract. It's $20M+ ALL in that season. There's no planning around it, there's no fancy signing bonus spread over the life, etc. It just hits all that year and you gotta figure out how to cap around it.

I can't imagine franchise tagging Wilson (after this year and outside of an interim move to get the contract worked out) is ANYWHERE in Seattle's gameplan.

 

[Southieinnc]

Wilson is as good a passing QB as he is at running and buying time. Thing is when Lynch is running good Wilson doesn't need to pass as much but he also takes more chances in that situation to try and stretch the field. That is by design to try and keep the defense honest and to keep Marshawn going and this tends to lead to more INT's and a lower rating. With out Lynch in the Backfield Teams wouldn't have 8+ men in the box and Wilsons passing numbers would go down. With 8+ men in the Box stopping Lynch His Passing numbers go up. These things go hand in hand.

Thing is Wilson is a better passing QB than most give him credit for, that's really the only thing that the OP shows.

He has done what he has done with poor pass blocking and average receivers. Russell is not a QB heading for a bust......

 

[JMR]

I can't imagine franchise tagging Wilson (after this year and outside of an interim move to get the contract worked out) is ANYWHERE in Seattle's gameplan.

It's in their game plan for sure. Right above allowing him to walk as a free agent after the '15 season.