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From ESPN Insider:
There might be skepticism within the NHL on the role advanced stats and analytics should have in player evaluation, projections and roster construction. But there’s definitely no shortage of those willing to try to prove their value.
In January, the New Jersey Devils publicly posted a job opening for a position called director of hockey analytics that was fascinating for a number of reasons. For one, the Devils aren’t often seen as a franchise on the forefront of using advanced stats and hockey analytics. Secondly, if Lou Lamoriello was, in fact, joining the advanced stats movement in hockey, it was stunning that we’d find out about it publicly. Nobody runs a tighter ship than Lamoriello when it comes to containing information, and teams tend to keep their analytics use very private.
The result of the public posting, however, was a barrage of applicants.
“We’ve had... I don’t know how many applicants,” Lamoriello said when we chatted on the topic last week.
That number is quantifiable. What Lamoriello wants to find out is exactly what else is quantifiable in the world of hockey.
In some respects, Lamoriello is old-school. He’s old-school in the way he wants the game played. He’s old-school in that he’s reluctant to take anything out of the game that removes the physicality and passion that makes hockey unique. But when it comes to finding new ways to win? There’s nothing old-school about Lou Lamoriello.
“Never have I ever considered him old-school in his management,” said Kings GM Dean Lombardi, a Lamoriello disciple. “He gave [Ilya] Kovalchuk 15 years. Was that old-school when he got Scott Stevens in an arbitration hearing? That’s progressive thinking, the way he pulled that off. Go back and read that brief. And look at how aggressive he is in building that team in free agency.”
Lombardi was just getting started.
“Lou has never been an old-school thinker. This is a guy who started his own conference. He starts Hockey East and look what it turned into. This guy ain’t progressive? Give me a break. He hired Rick Pitino out of nowhere,” Lombardi said. “When I saw that posting [for the analytics job], I wasn’t surprised. Actually, I’d go the other way and say, ‘What took so long?’”
It’s not cheap to start an analytics department, and it also takes support from ownership. When the Devils were sold in August, it was reported that they were losing about $25 million per season. That’s probably not the time to ask about adding new positions to hockey operations.
But that changed when Philadelphia 76ers owner Josh Harris bought the Devils. The new ownership pledged to build a highly successful management team and provide it with the resources necessary to win. That’s already starting.
At the recent Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, you couldn’t help but feel as if the NHL was light-years behind the NBA in gathering and using data to improve teams. Part of it is because the NBA has motion-tracking cameras in every arena, generating data on every single player in every single game. NBA owners have seen the benefit of having that data, and it’s safe to assume Harris and his group would like the Devils to be just as progressive in their data gathering. The challenge now is finding a way to make it happen.
“Our new owners are very much into that. They spoke to me about -- how could that help? And math is my background,” Lamoriello said. “If they felt that good and they were willing to support me putting together some people to look into some areas and the stats are getting better, why not?”
Cost is one barrier. According to a team that is examining the idea of having motion-tracking cameras gather data for its franchise, it would cost into the six figures to have the entire season tracked and the data produced. And that’s before knowing whether the data is applicable.
Part of the issue is that if one team signs on and gathers data, there wouldn’t be comparative data from other teams or historical data to examine exactly what the data means. For example, the tracking system can help determine a player’s top speed and how often he’s skating within the top 20 percent of his top speed while on the ice. That’s fascinating information, but without a pool of comparison data over a long stretch of time, it’s not easy to interpret.
But even with your own data, you could discover that one of your defenseman’s average speed is 5 percent lower than the average defenseman on your team. You could determine pass completion percentages, number of possessions in the offensive zone, offensive zone possession time compared with the average player and the total number of touches -- just to start. In a story that launched FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver suggested that this data could measure the perseverance of an NHL player, removing the bias of coaches and scouts.
“It’s got tons of potential,” one exec concluded.
Teams might be willing to jump in if other teams also do it and the data is shared. Or better yet, everyone wins if the NHL or one of its television partners signs on to have the data collected and shared with teams leaguewide. Having this data be a part of a television broadcast would be groundbreaking in hockey.
All these are options moving forward, and Marc Appleby, the president and solutions architect of PowerScout Hockey -- who is pitching the technology to the NHL and its teams -- is optimistic that the league is getting closer to gathering this data, especially as costs come down.
“I believe the NHL is ready and willing to do a league-wide deal within the right framework, as I know they are passionate about innovating and improving the game, and we are working diligently towards a solution that bring this incredible mountain of big data to hockey as soon as possible,” Appleby wrote in a Monday e-mail.
That’s the first step. The second is interpreting it.
In sharing Staples Center with the NBA, Lombardi has seen the impact of the data up close at that level. He also has seen the pitfalls.
“The NBA, they still struggle with the use of this data. Be very careful; the technology is amazing for grabbing it, but anybody can grab data. Is it knowledge? There’s a difference,” Lombardi said. “If you don’t form a theory, a hypothesis and test it, what is it? It’s the same here. That requires time, it requires barking up the wrong tree and making mistakes... There’s a lot of NBA and baseball guys who made decisions with that and it’s blown up in their face. No stat is going to tell you about character and will. That’s where I see some of the guys get carried away. It’s still a people business. It’s not a science project.”
The ideal outcome for teams already using advanced stats in player evaluation is finding data that challenge views they currently have. There’s not a lot to be gained if you spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to find out that a team has an advantage when Patrice Bergeron is on the ice.
The St. Louis Blues have been using a hockey analytics company for about seven years, according to GM Doug Armstrong, and the highest value for him is when it challenges his current belief system.
“Show me stats that prove me wrong. Don’t show me stats that prove me right. That’s too easy,” Armstrong said. “I believe in them. It’s like a team psychologist. I believe in that. Everything has to have its compartment.”
Right now, the Blues are one of the league’s better Corsi teams, and that’s very much by design, according to Armstrong.
“You’re a great defensive team when you’re playing in the offensive zone. That’s just common sense. We’ve gone to trying to build our team with enough mobile and puck-moving defensemen that get us out of our end and put the issue at center ice or further,” Armstrong said. “The off-the-glass, hard-around defensemen are very effective. But all you’re doing is moving the play out so the other team can regroup and come back in because they end up with the puck.”
With a seven-year head start on some teams, the Blues might be reaping the benefits of their forward thinking right now. Armstrong’s team has the best record in the NHL.
Still, because of skepticism and a hesitancy to buy into analytics until there’s a proven method available, teams such as the Devils can still be out front while others wait for the statistical magic bullet that will improve their team.
And that’s just fine with Lamoriello.
“I hope they all wait and see,” he said.
There might be skepticism within the NHL on the role advanced stats and analytics should have in player evaluation, projections and roster construction. But there’s definitely no shortage of those willing to try to prove their value.
In January, the New Jersey Devils publicly posted a job opening for a position called director of hockey analytics that was fascinating for a number of reasons. For one, the Devils aren’t often seen as a franchise on the forefront of using advanced stats and hockey analytics. Secondly, if Lou Lamoriello was, in fact, joining the advanced stats movement in hockey, it was stunning that we’d find out about it publicly. Nobody runs a tighter ship than Lamoriello when it comes to containing information, and teams tend to keep their analytics use very private.
The result of the public posting, however, was a barrage of applicants.
“We’ve had... I don’t know how many applicants,” Lamoriello said when we chatted on the topic last week.
That number is quantifiable. What Lamoriello wants to find out is exactly what else is quantifiable in the world of hockey.
In some respects, Lamoriello is old-school. He’s old-school in the way he wants the game played. He’s old-school in that he’s reluctant to take anything out of the game that removes the physicality and passion that makes hockey unique. But when it comes to finding new ways to win? There’s nothing old-school about Lou Lamoriello.
“Never have I ever considered him old-school in his management,” said Kings GM Dean Lombardi, a Lamoriello disciple. “He gave [Ilya] Kovalchuk 15 years. Was that old-school when he got Scott Stevens in an arbitration hearing? That’s progressive thinking, the way he pulled that off. Go back and read that brief. And look at how aggressive he is in building that team in free agency.”
Lombardi was just getting started.
“Lou has never been an old-school thinker. This is a guy who started his own conference. He starts Hockey East and look what it turned into. This guy ain’t progressive? Give me a break. He hired Rick Pitino out of nowhere,” Lombardi said. “When I saw that posting [for the analytics job], I wasn’t surprised. Actually, I’d go the other way and say, ‘What took so long?’”
It’s not cheap to start an analytics department, and it also takes support from ownership. When the Devils were sold in August, it was reported that they were losing about $25 million per season. That’s probably not the time to ask about adding new positions to hockey operations.
But that changed when Philadelphia 76ers owner Josh Harris bought the Devils. The new ownership pledged to build a highly successful management team and provide it with the resources necessary to win. That’s already starting.
At the recent Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, you couldn’t help but feel as if the NHL was light-years behind the NBA in gathering and using data to improve teams. Part of it is because the NBA has motion-tracking cameras in every arena, generating data on every single player in every single game. NBA owners have seen the benefit of having that data, and it’s safe to assume Harris and his group would like the Devils to be just as progressive in their data gathering. The challenge now is finding a way to make it happen.
“Our new owners are very much into that. They spoke to me about -- how could that help? And math is my background,” Lamoriello said. “If they felt that good and they were willing to support me putting together some people to look into some areas and the stats are getting better, why not?”
Cost is one barrier. According to a team that is examining the idea of having motion-tracking cameras gather data for its franchise, it would cost into the six figures to have the entire season tracked and the data produced. And that’s before knowing whether the data is applicable.
Part of the issue is that if one team signs on and gathers data, there wouldn’t be comparative data from other teams or historical data to examine exactly what the data means. For example, the tracking system can help determine a player’s top speed and how often he’s skating within the top 20 percent of his top speed while on the ice. That’s fascinating information, but without a pool of comparison data over a long stretch of time, it’s not easy to interpret.
But even with your own data, you could discover that one of your defenseman’s average speed is 5 percent lower than the average defenseman on your team. You could determine pass completion percentages, number of possessions in the offensive zone, offensive zone possession time compared with the average player and the total number of touches -- just to start. In a story that launched FiveThirtyEight.com, Nate Silver suggested that this data could measure the perseverance of an NHL player, removing the bias of coaches and scouts.
“It’s got tons of potential,” one exec concluded.
Teams might be willing to jump in if other teams also do it and the data is shared. Or better yet, everyone wins if the NHL or one of its television partners signs on to have the data collected and shared with teams leaguewide. Having this data be a part of a television broadcast would be groundbreaking in hockey.
All these are options moving forward, and Marc Appleby, the president and solutions architect of PowerScout Hockey -- who is pitching the technology to the NHL and its teams -- is optimistic that the league is getting closer to gathering this data, especially as costs come down.
“I believe the NHL is ready and willing to do a league-wide deal within the right framework, as I know they are passionate about innovating and improving the game, and we are working diligently towards a solution that bring this incredible mountain of big data to hockey as soon as possible,” Appleby wrote in a Monday e-mail.
That’s the first step. The second is interpreting it.
In sharing Staples Center with the NBA, Lombardi has seen the impact of the data up close at that level. He also has seen the pitfalls.
“The NBA, they still struggle with the use of this data. Be very careful; the technology is amazing for grabbing it, but anybody can grab data. Is it knowledge? There’s a difference,” Lombardi said. “If you don’t form a theory, a hypothesis and test it, what is it? It’s the same here. That requires time, it requires barking up the wrong tree and making mistakes... There’s a lot of NBA and baseball guys who made decisions with that and it’s blown up in their face. No stat is going to tell you about character and will. That’s where I see some of the guys get carried away. It’s still a people business. It’s not a science project.”
The ideal outcome for teams already using advanced stats in player evaluation is finding data that challenge views they currently have. There’s not a lot to be gained if you spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to find out that a team has an advantage when Patrice Bergeron is on the ice.
The St. Louis Blues have been using a hockey analytics company for about seven years, according to GM Doug Armstrong, and the highest value for him is when it challenges his current belief system.
“Show me stats that prove me wrong. Don’t show me stats that prove me right. That’s too easy,” Armstrong said. “I believe in them. It’s like a team psychologist. I believe in that. Everything has to have its compartment.”
Right now, the Blues are one of the league’s better Corsi teams, and that’s very much by design, according to Armstrong.
“You’re a great defensive team when you’re playing in the offensive zone. That’s just common sense. We’ve gone to trying to build our team with enough mobile and puck-moving defensemen that get us out of our end and put the issue at center ice or further,” Armstrong said. “The off-the-glass, hard-around defensemen are very effective. But all you’re doing is moving the play out so the other team can regroup and come back in because they end up with the puck.”
With a seven-year head start on some teams, the Blues might be reaping the benefits of their forward thinking right now. Armstrong’s team has the best record in the NHL.
Still, because of skepticism and a hesitancy to buy into analytics until there’s a proven method available, teams such as the Devils can still be out front while others wait for the statistical magic bullet that will improve their team.
And that’s just fine with Lamoriello.
“I hope they all wait and see,” he said.
