The Broncos vs AFC West in the Playoffs

[DownSetHutch]

Great thread. I wanted the Broncos to go through (literally) the Ravens and the Patriots en route to the Super Bowl. I'm all about the team getting revenge and exorcising demons. Well, we can still see a Broncos-Patriots showdown in Denver for the right to go to the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure everybody is looking forward to that possible matchup in the AFCCG as the best possible scenario for that weekend. However, for the divisional round, I think the Colts would be the best opponent for us to face. I think they would be a tougher opponent, plus they beat us this year, so it would be a chance to get a little revenge (not that they elicit the same viceral reaction as the Patriots or Ravens, but still). Having said that, either the Chargers or Chiefs would be a nice matchup too.

The only scenario that would eclipse any of the aforementioned scenarios would be for the Broncos to successively beat the Chargers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. This would be absolutely historic, and an accomplishment that would never again be equaled. This is looking ahead, of course, but it would be absolutely incredible if the post-season played out this way.

 

[Morpheus]

Great thread. I wanted the Broncos to go through (literally) the Ravens and the Patriots en route to the Super Bowl. I'm all about the team getting revenge and exorcising demons. Well, we can still see a Broncos-Patriots showdown in Denver for the right to go to the Super Bowl. I'm pretty sure everybody is looking forward to that possible matchup in the AFCCG as the best possible scenario for that weekend. However, for the divisional round, I think the Colts would be the best opponent for us to face. I think they would be a tougher opponent, plus they beat us this year, so it would be a chance to get a little revenge (not that they elicit the same viceral reaction as the Patriots or Ravens, but still). Having said that, either the Chargers or Chiefs would be a nice matchup too.

The only scenario that would eclipse any of the aforementioned scenarios would be for the Broncos to successively beat the Chargers, Chiefs, and Seahawks. This would be absolutely historic, and an accomplishment that would never again be equaled. This is looking ahead, of course, but it would be absolutely incredible if the post-season played out this way.

It would have been nice to beat the Ravens in the Playoffs. Hanging 47 on them in the season opener will have to suffice.

 

[iknowftbll]

It's looking more and more like the Broncos are going to get round 3 against the Chiefs or the Chargers.

 

[MileHigh64]

It's looking more and more like the Broncos are going to get round 3 against the Chiefs or the Chargers.

Wow! If the Chiefs hang on to win and if the Chargers could somehow pull out a win in Cincinnati tomorrow, there would be 3 of the 4 AFC divisional round teams coming out of the AFC West. It sure is nice to have our division back on the map again!

The Broncos can beat either of our West rivals, but they both also present some challenges. KC's defense looks like it's back to form and Alex Smith is playing out of his mind. I don't actually think that SD can beat Cincy tomorrow, but you never know.

Can't wait for next Sunday! Go Broncos!

MH64

 

[DownSetHutch]

Well, so much for the historic run that could have been. I'm getting the feeling that the Chargers will lose tomorrow, and we'll face the Colts next week. If so, they will be a tough team to beat, especially since they have shown the ability to come back from big deficits, and our defense has not exactly been lights out. If we face the Chargers, however, I like our chances. They play us tough, even in Denver, but we simply have a far better team this year. We'll beat them if we play them.

 

[Morpheus]

Impressive comeback by the Colts that is overshadowing the fact that they played terrible defense and made mistakes that put them down 28 in the first place.

If a team throws 3 INTs in a playoff game, 99 times out of 100 they lose.

Not trying to take anything away from the Colts impressive comeback, but Chiefs played horrible defense in the 2nd half.

That Luck rushing TD after scooping up the fumble?

Dumb luck, no pun intended.

 

[iknowftbll]

Chargers @ Bengals just kicked off. Looking forward to seeing who the Broncos will get next week.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Chargers @ Bengals just kicked off. Looking forward to seeing who the Broncos will get next week.

The way Dalton is playing, if it continues looks like we get the Chargers.

 

[WalkerBoh]

So, which Chargers team will travel to Denver? Do we get the Chargers who dominated the Bengals, or the version who barely squeeked by KC's second and third string?

 

[iknowftbll]

So, which Chargers team will travel to Denver? Do we get the Chargers who dominated the Bengals, or the version who barely squeeked by KC's second and third string?

Good question. Which version of the Chargers shows up is not nearly as important as which version of the Broncos show up. If the Broncos come in hitting on all cylinders they will win. But they need to own it from the opening kickoff, because the Chargers are good enough to trade scores with the Broncos any given week. If that week happens to be next week, it'll be a tough game to watch.

 

[Morpheus]

I don't see the Broncos that came off a short week and made a bunch of mental errors or the Broncos that were probably a little overconfident in last years playoff game as the team that shows up next Sunday.

They also have lost this regular season to all the teams left in the AFC playoffs.

I think they are focused, not overly confident and are right where they have the best chance to win. At home throughout.

The sting of last year is still present and they will be healthy, well prepared and put themselves in the best position to be successful.

 

[DownSetHutch]

Contrary to my previous post about the Broncos being a far better team than the Chargers, after looking at both teams' rankings in Rushing Offense, Rushing Defense, Passing Offense, and Passing Defense, both teams are a lot closer than I thought, and fairly close overall. Weird, because watching both teams, the Broncos just look so much better. I still feel confident about the match-up, but I have to admit that the Chargers looked like a good team today, one that is capable of going to Denver and pulling off the upset.

In short, the Broncos better not step on their dicks next week.

 

[Morpheus]

Contrary to my previous post about the Broncos being a far better team than the Chargers, after looking at both teams' rankings in Rushing Offense, Rushing Defense, Passing Offense, and Passing Defense, both teams are a lot closer than I thought, and fairly close overall. Weird, because watching both teams, the Broncos just look so much better. I still feel confident about the match-up, but I have to admit that the Chargers looked like a good team today, one that is capable of going to Denver and pulling off the upset.

In short, the Broncos better not step on their dicks next week.

The real separation and most important stat is the Scoring offense/PPG. Denver is 1st and the Chargers 9th with a huge disparity of 37.9 PPG vs 24.8 PPG.

Broncos are 10 PPG better than any team in the league. The Broncos Offense has the ability to put up a ton of points.

The fact that we did not against the Chargers in that last game is anomaly in my opinion and not the norm.

 

[DownSetHutch]

I agree that it was somewhat of an anomaly too, Morph, but the Chargers did hold the Broncos to relatively low scores twice. 20 points in Denver and 28 points in San Diego. I'm certainly not trying to prop up the Chargers, but they have played the Broncos pretty well twice this season, as far as the final score goes. Having said that, I think this game the Broncos will play closer to their potential and pull away a bit at some point.

 

[boltfan72]

The real separation and most important stat is the Scoring offense/PPG. Denver is 1st and the Chargers 9th with a huge disparity of 37.9 PPG vs 24.8 PPG.

Broncos are 10 PPG better than any team in the league. The Broncos Offense has the ability to put up a ton of points.

The fact that we did not against the Chargers in that last game is anomaly in my opinion and not the norm.

Perhaps, but Denver was also below the average in the other game. They were held under 30 only 3 times all year - twice by the Chargers. Both teams won by nearly identical scores - 28-20 and 27-20.

As I've said Denver should and will be a heavy favorite, but if SD can hold them under 30 again, they have a shot at pulling the upset.

 

[Broncos6482]

Perhaps, but Denver was also below the average in the other game. They were held under 30 only 3 times all year - twice by the Chargers. Both teams won by nearly identical scores - 28-20 and 27-20.

As I've said Denver should and will be a heavy favorite, but if SD can hold them under 30 again, they have a shot at pulling the upset.

I don't even think they have to hold Denver under 30 to have a shot, but it would certainly help. The line really surprised me. I'm not a gambler but Denver by 10 seems huge to me considering how both of the games against the Chargers went this season. I thought Denver would be favored by 5 or 6.

 

[WalkerBoh]

I don't even think they have to hold Denver under 30 to have a shot, but it would certainly help. The line really surprised me. I'm not a gambler but Denver by 10 seems huge to me considering how both of the games against the Chargers went this season. I thought Denver would be favored by 5 or 6.

I'm sure the Chargers barely eeking out a win against KC's 2nd and 3rd string factored into that a bit.

 

[boltfan72]

I don't even think they have to hold Denver under 30 to have a shot, but it would certainly help. The line really surprised me. I'm not a gambler but Denver by 10 seems huge to me considering how both of the games against the Chargers went this season. I thought Denver would be favored by 5 or 6.

Yeah, their biggest loss all year was by 8 points. But the line isn't a logical thing. It's driven by how much money is going to either side. The casual bettor probably doesn't realize that the Chargers rarely get blown out. Given Denver's bye, their memories of last year, and the home field, I think 7 is a reasonable spread. Ten seems a bit much.

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah, their biggest loss all year was by 8 points. But the line isn't a logical thing. It's driven by how much money is going to either side. The casual bettor probably doesn't realize that the Chargers rarely get blown out. Given Denver's bye, their memories of last year, and the home field, I think 7 is a reasonable spread. Ten seems a bit much.

Like you said the average bettor doesn't always look at all the stats that they should. I expect this to be a pretty close game. San Diego will probably stick to the same plan they had in the 1st 2 meetings in trying to run the ball, work the clock, and convert the 3rd downs that they should. Since they have been pretty successful at this tactic all year I expect them to at least have some success meaning the Broncos will have less chances to get the offense going keeping it a semi-low scoring game such as high 20's maybe low 30's.

 

[Morpheus]

Yeah, their biggest loss all year was by 8 points. But the line isn't a logical thing. It's driven by how much money is going to either side. The casual bettor probably doesn't realize that the Chargers rarely get blown out. Given Denver's bye, their memories of last year, and the home field, I think 7 is a reasonable spread. Ten seems a bit much.

The line will move depending on the action on each side, but the initial point spread is set based on a lot of different statistics.

The last 2 weeks, the Chargers struggled against KC's 2nd string and the Bengals really beat themselves more than the Chargers won in any convincing fashion.

4 Turnovers yet the Chargers only scored 6 points off of those turnovers.

Last time in Denver the Broncos made a bunch of mistakes, turnovers, penalties by the defense that gave up first downs, going 3 and out like 5 times in a row when they were one of the best offenses in the league.

We beat ourselves on that short week as well.

I don't think the odds makers expect a repeat performance like that by Denver, nor do I.