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It’s that time of year! With the release of the schedule, the majority of free agents signed, and the draft behind us all combining to give a more clear idea of the direction each NFL team intends to go in 2018, I am ready to make some predictions for the Broncos in 2018. I’ll follow these up with some league-wide predictions in a later post.
The Broncos don’t draft in the top 5 very often. There was a lot of speculation they would use the pick to draft one of the highly touted QB prospects. But by standing firm and selecting Bradley Chubb with the 5th pick, the Broncos sent a message: we’re in it to win it in 2018. There will be no speculation of when the team will transition from Keenum to Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, or Allen. There will be no questions about the long term direction of the franchise. There will be no controversy at the QB position for the first time since Osweiler stepped in for Manning midway through the 2015 season.
The importance of this cannot be overstated.
This team, offense, defense, and special teams all look to be on the same page and working toward the same goals.
The Broncos have been critiqued for not addressing the offensive line, however I am of the belief they have the makings of a solid unit going forward. Moving Leary back to the left side next to Bolles makes that side of the line downright formidable. The right side remains questionable, but McGovern showed some real potential and there are ways the team can work around other weaknesses if they become a problem. If the right side can be serviceable even, the line will be remarkably better than 2017. And let’s not forget, this is a unit that was solid in run blocking in 2017, despite the offense as a whole being so putrid.
With those changes to the line and the single most important position on the team address in the Keenum signing, the Broncos look to put behind them the days in inept and impotent offense. Initially I was not excited by the Keenum signing, but the more I think about it the more I like it. Even while I was skeptical I could not deny the immense improvement Keenum represented over the three-headed drive killing monster of Siemian-Lynch-Osweiler.
While I do not expect an explosive offense on the level of the 2012-2014 unit, I do expect the offense to be unrecognizable compared to last year’s. I think it’ll show flashes of explosiveness but for the most part will be an efficient unit reminiscent of the 2005 offense.
And that defense? It looks like it’s going to be scary good.
So with these factors in mind, here’s what I consider a best case scenario for the Broncos in 2018.
Week 1: Broncos vs Seahawks: win, 17-9. While I consider the Seahawks a team on the decline, even the most optimistic of fans knows week 1 is often a crapshoot. The Broncos defense should be able to control this one but the offense will have to work through some growing pains and challenges. They’ll do just enough while the defense stifles a potential game tying drive. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: Broncos vs Raiders: win, 31-13. The offense gets it going against a Raiders team that looks to be in the midst of a pretty significant makeover. Gruden’s return has been much touted but that offense will be extremely complex and to expect them to go into Denver and square off against the Broncos defense in week 2 is asking a lot. The Broncos capitalize on early mistakes and run away with this one. Broncos 2-0.
Week 3: Broncos @ Ravens: loss, 17-27. This is less an endorsement on the Ravens than it is an acknowledgment the Broncos just don’t play the Ravens well on the road. Especially in the first road game of the season. Look for this loss to trigger a narrative about how similar this start is to the 2017 season: gut out a week 1 win, win big in week 2, and lose the first road game of the year in week 3. (That’s a bonus prediction. That’s what I do: I don’t just predict wins and losses but also how sports media and fans will react!) Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Broncos vs Chiefs: win, 28-17. The Chiefs have enjoyed a 5 game win streak over the Broncos, but they will be breaking in a new QB. Mahommes got his first start in week 17 in Denver last season and his performance has Chiefs fans excited. Playing the Broncos in Denver early in the season on MNF is a (forgive me) horse of a different color. The Broncos correct course, both on the season and their all-time series with the Chiefs. Broncos 3-1.
Week 5: Broncos @ Jets: win, 28-7. Jets’ top pick Sam Darnold may well revive that franchise. Just not in week 5 of the 2018 season. Darnold’s senior year gave him the reputation of being turnover prone and that will likely continue, at least into his rookie season. The Broncos should be able to force a few mistakes and cash them in for points on the score board en route to a decisive win. Broncos 4-1.
Week 6: Broncos vs Rams: loss, 21-24. Wade Philips return to Denver will be much discussed, especially after his defense puts the lid on the Broncos offense. The Rams were already pretty good on both sides of the ball, but adding Peters and Talib to their secondary makes them scary good. Despite the Broncos being at home, the Rams are just further along in their resurgence. Broncos 4-2.
Week 7: Broncos @ Cardinals: win, 29-10. The Cardinals have some depth at QB with Bradford, Glennon, and Rosen. I’m guessing by week 7 Bradford will have suffered an injury, setting up the Broncos to tee off on another rookie QB on TNF. The Cardinals defense will keep in close, but the Broncos should be able to capitalize on mistakes and pull away late. Broncos 5-2.
Week 8: Broncos @ Chiefs: loss, 16-24. It’s tough to go into Kansas City and win no matter how you slice it. To do it as the second in back to back road trips that take you in two different directions is a tough out. The Chiefs are able to do just enough. Broncos 5-3.
Week 9: Broncos vs Texans: win, 24-21. This one looks like a grinder. While I don’t expect Texans QB Watson to pick up where he left off before his injury, the Texans should be a capable team on both sides of the ball. Capable, but not great. The defense holds and the offense does just enough. Broncos 6-3.
Week 10: Bye.
Week 11: Broncos @ Chargers: loss, 21-31. By this point in the season I expect a lot of buzz around both the Broncos and the Chargers. Catching the Chargers after a bye is a break but the Chargers are hitting on all cylinders. Even though the Chargers small stadium will be half full of Broncos fans, the team itself will still benefit from not having to travel. Plus the Chargers always play the Broncos tight. Broncos 6-4.
Week 12: Broncos vs Steelers: win, 17-14. The Broncos are a defense oriented team, and at some point along the way they are going to get into a slobber-knocking dogfight. Pencil in this one with the Steelers as a good candidate for that one. Maybe it’ll even snow just to make it more epic. Broncos edge them in a close, hard fought win. Broncos 7-4.
Week 13: Broncos @ Bengals: win, 34-17. And then just a week later the Broncos offense looks like a juggernaut on the road, albeit against a lesser team. The Broncos are just the better team across the board and it’ll show. Defense keeps the lid on the Bengals offense while the offense has one of its better dates thus far in the season as the Broncos double up the Bengals on the scoreboard. Broncos 8-4.
Week 14: Broncos @ 49ers: loss, 27-35. Once again, the Broncos make back to back road games in opposite directions. The 49ers are currently a dark horse to contend for the NFC West, but by week 14 they may be considered contenders for a deep playoff run as well. On the road and against a very good opponent, the Broncos suffer a late season setback. Broncos 8-5.
Week 15: Broncos vs Browns: win, 42-10. Getting the Browns just after a late season loss will be just what the doctor orders for this team. The Broncos will have had a few decisive wins and some hard fought ones by now, but they are going to straight up run away with this one. And yet another rookie QB in Mayfield chalks it up to the learning process. Broncos 9-5.
Week 16: Broncos @ Raiders: win, 28-17. This game is Christmas Eve, a Monday this year. The previous week’s game is on a Saturday, setting the Broncos up with a nice break in between. That’s vital because the Broncos will come into this one in a “win and in” scenario and the Raiders would love to at least delay the Broncos from punching their playoff ticket. They’ll give their best effort, but the Broncos control the pace and with a win return to the playoffs. Broncos 10-5.
Week 17: Broncos vs Chargers: win, 27-13. Both teams will enter this game locked into their respective playoff seeds, so expect the starters to play only in the first half. The Broncos jump out to a lead and put it in cruise control in the second half as the regular season comes to a close. Broncos 11-5.
The Broncos 2018 record of 11-5 will be good enough for a wildcard spot in the playoffs, as the Broncos finish 2nd behind the Chargers in the AFC West. The defense will be top 5 across the board, most importantly 3rd or 4th in scoring. The offense will hover around top 10, and rank about 6th or 7th in scoring. The Broncos will score 407 and surrender 289 points, averages of 25.4 and 18.1 PPG respectively. Look for Keenum to have an efficient year, hitting about 3,600 passing yards, 23 TDs and 10 INT. This will be wild improvement over last year. Freeman and Booker combine for about 1,600 rushing yards, perhaps with Booker leading in yards gained but Freeman having more rushing TDs.
While an 11-5 record, a top flight defense and solid offense will all combine for a dangerous team, I expect the Broncos will remain an afterthought as the playoffs start, overshadowed by the Chargers and Patriots in the AFC and a murderer’s row of elite teams in the NFC playoff slate.
More on that soon enough. For now I welcome your thoughts on these predictions for the 2018 Broncos.
The Broncos don’t draft in the top 5 very often. There was a lot of speculation they would use the pick to draft one of the highly touted QB prospects. But by standing firm and selecting Bradley Chubb with the 5th pick, the Broncos sent a message: we’re in it to win it in 2018. There will be no speculation of when the team will transition from Keenum to Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, or Allen. There will be no questions about the long term direction of the franchise. There will be no controversy at the QB position for the first time since Osweiler stepped in for Manning midway through the 2015 season.
The importance of this cannot be overstated.
This team, offense, defense, and special teams all look to be on the same page and working toward the same goals.
The Broncos have been critiqued for not addressing the offensive line, however I am of the belief they have the makings of a solid unit going forward. Moving Leary back to the left side next to Bolles makes that side of the line downright formidable. The right side remains questionable, but McGovern showed some real potential and there are ways the team can work around other weaknesses if they become a problem. If the right side can be serviceable even, the line will be remarkably better than 2017. And let’s not forget, this is a unit that was solid in run blocking in 2017, despite the offense as a whole being so putrid.
With those changes to the line and the single most important position on the team address in the Keenum signing, the Broncos look to put behind them the days in inept and impotent offense. Initially I was not excited by the Keenum signing, but the more I think about it the more I like it. Even while I was skeptical I could not deny the immense improvement Keenum represented over the three-headed drive killing monster of Siemian-Lynch-Osweiler.
While I do not expect an explosive offense on the level of the 2012-2014 unit, I do expect the offense to be unrecognizable compared to last year’s. I think it’ll show flashes of explosiveness but for the most part will be an efficient unit reminiscent of the 2005 offense.
And that defense? It looks like it’s going to be scary good.
So with these factors in mind, here’s what I consider a best case scenario for the Broncos in 2018.
Week 1: Broncos vs Seahawks: win, 17-9. While I consider the Seahawks a team on the decline, even the most optimistic of fans knows week 1 is often a crapshoot. The Broncos defense should be able to control this one but the offense will have to work through some growing pains and challenges. They’ll do just enough while the defense stifles a potential game tying drive. Broncos 1-0.
Week 2: Broncos vs Raiders: win, 31-13. The offense gets it going against a Raiders team that looks to be in the midst of a pretty significant makeover. Gruden’s return has been much touted but that offense will be extremely complex and to expect them to go into Denver and square off against the Broncos defense in week 2 is asking a lot. The Broncos capitalize on early mistakes and run away with this one. Broncos 2-0.
Week 3: Broncos @ Ravens: loss, 17-27. This is less an endorsement on the Ravens than it is an acknowledgment the Broncos just don’t play the Ravens well on the road. Especially in the first road game of the season. Look for this loss to trigger a narrative about how similar this start is to the 2017 season: gut out a week 1 win, win big in week 2, and lose the first road game of the year in week 3. (That’s a bonus prediction. That’s what I do: I don’t just predict wins and losses but also how sports media and fans will react!) Broncos 2-1.
Week 4: Broncos vs Chiefs: win, 28-17. The Chiefs have enjoyed a 5 game win streak over the Broncos, but they will be breaking in a new QB. Mahommes got his first start in week 17 in Denver last season and his performance has Chiefs fans excited. Playing the Broncos in Denver early in the season on MNF is a (forgive me) horse of a different color. The Broncos correct course, both on the season and their all-time series with the Chiefs. Broncos 3-1.
Week 5: Broncos @ Jets: win, 28-7. Jets’ top pick Sam Darnold may well revive that franchise. Just not in week 5 of the 2018 season. Darnold’s senior year gave him the reputation of being turnover prone and that will likely continue, at least into his rookie season. The Broncos should be able to force a few mistakes and cash them in for points on the score board en route to a decisive win. Broncos 4-1.
Week 6: Broncos vs Rams: loss, 21-24. Wade Philips return to Denver will be much discussed, especially after his defense puts the lid on the Broncos offense. The Rams were already pretty good on both sides of the ball, but adding Peters and Talib to their secondary makes them scary good. Despite the Broncos being at home, the Rams are just further along in their resurgence. Broncos 4-2.
Week 7: Broncos @ Cardinals: win, 29-10. The Cardinals have some depth at QB with Bradford, Glennon, and Rosen. I’m guessing by week 7 Bradford will have suffered an injury, setting up the Broncos to tee off on another rookie QB on TNF. The Cardinals defense will keep in close, but the Broncos should be able to capitalize on mistakes and pull away late. Broncos 5-2.
Week 8: Broncos @ Chiefs: loss, 16-24. It’s tough to go into Kansas City and win no matter how you slice it. To do it as the second in back to back road trips that take you in two different directions is a tough out. The Chiefs are able to do just enough. Broncos 5-3.
Week 9: Broncos vs Texans: win, 24-21. This one looks like a grinder. While I don’t expect Texans QB Watson to pick up where he left off before his injury, the Texans should be a capable team on both sides of the ball. Capable, but not great. The defense holds and the offense does just enough. Broncos 6-3.
Week 10: Bye.
Week 11: Broncos @ Chargers: loss, 21-31. By this point in the season I expect a lot of buzz around both the Broncos and the Chargers. Catching the Chargers after a bye is a break but the Chargers are hitting on all cylinders. Even though the Chargers small stadium will be half full of Broncos fans, the team itself will still benefit from not having to travel. Plus the Chargers always play the Broncos tight. Broncos 6-4.
Week 12: Broncos vs Steelers: win, 17-14. The Broncos are a defense oriented team, and at some point along the way they are going to get into a slobber-knocking dogfight. Pencil in this one with the Steelers as a good candidate for that one. Maybe it’ll even snow just to make it more epic. Broncos edge them in a close, hard fought win. Broncos 7-4.
Week 13: Broncos @ Bengals: win, 34-17. And then just a week later the Broncos offense looks like a juggernaut on the road, albeit against a lesser team. The Broncos are just the better team across the board and it’ll show. Defense keeps the lid on the Bengals offense while the offense has one of its better dates thus far in the season as the Broncos double up the Bengals on the scoreboard. Broncos 8-4.
Week 14: Broncos @ 49ers: loss, 27-35. Once again, the Broncos make back to back road games in opposite directions. The 49ers are currently a dark horse to contend for the NFC West, but by week 14 they may be considered contenders for a deep playoff run as well. On the road and against a very good opponent, the Broncos suffer a late season setback. Broncos 8-5.
Week 15: Broncos vs Browns: win, 42-10. Getting the Browns just after a late season loss will be just what the doctor orders for this team. The Broncos will have had a few decisive wins and some hard fought ones by now, but they are going to straight up run away with this one. And yet another rookie QB in Mayfield chalks it up to the learning process. Broncos 9-5.
Week 16: Broncos @ Raiders: win, 28-17. This game is Christmas Eve, a Monday this year. The previous week’s game is on a Saturday, setting the Broncos up with a nice break in between. That’s vital because the Broncos will come into this one in a “win and in” scenario and the Raiders would love to at least delay the Broncos from punching their playoff ticket. They’ll give their best effort, but the Broncos control the pace and with a win return to the playoffs. Broncos 10-5.
Week 17: Broncos vs Chargers: win, 27-13. Both teams will enter this game locked into their respective playoff seeds, so expect the starters to play only in the first half. The Broncos jump out to a lead and put it in cruise control in the second half as the regular season comes to a close. Broncos 11-5.
The Broncos 2018 record of 11-5 will be good enough for a wildcard spot in the playoffs, as the Broncos finish 2nd behind the Chargers in the AFC West. The defense will be top 5 across the board, most importantly 3rd or 4th in scoring. The offense will hover around top 10, and rank about 6th or 7th in scoring. The Broncos will score 407 and surrender 289 points, averages of 25.4 and 18.1 PPG respectively. Look for Keenum to have an efficient year, hitting about 3,600 passing yards, 23 TDs and 10 INT. This will be wild improvement over last year. Freeman and Booker combine for about 1,600 rushing yards, perhaps with Booker leading in yards gained but Freeman having more rushing TDs.
While an 11-5 record, a top flight defense and solid offense will all combine for a dangerous team, I expect the Broncos will remain an afterthought as the playoffs start, overshadowed by the Chargers and Patriots in the AFC and a murderer’s row of elite teams in the NFC playoff slate.
More on that soon enough. For now I welcome your thoughts on these predictions for the 2018 Broncos.
