Teams jumping on the advanced stats bandwagon

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Given that the comments that were made that I was responding to weren't about Dellow specifically it still shouldn't be hard to find examples if they're out there.

Smile a little, man. It's Friday.

 

[IPostedWhat]

Smile a little, man. It's Friday.

 

[elocomotive]

You make a very key point, each person has their own unique perspective. This is precisely why I cant stand the NFL anymore. The whole Fantasy shit with all these advanced numbers and Sunday Morning bobbleheads is beyond palatable. Who gives a fuck? Thats why at 1 ,4 and 8.30 each Sunday the teams enter the field and oppose each other; to see who wins. The point of me sitting on my ass in front of the t.v. on a Sunday (or Saturday night for HNIC) is to watch the game, unfortunately more often nowadays it has to be on mute because I cant stand the yammering on and on about this statistic and that. It's all great for those that want it, but why do we all have to receive it?

I wish the guys on the radio would shut up and just let me hear the sounds of the ice, the bodychecks, and the crowd. All the fancy talkin' gets in the way.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I generally won't engage over things non-Leaf related unless it's the playoffs. I just don't watch enough out-of-market games to do so.

And I'm not saying I'm being judged per sé, but to many in the advanced stats "community" people who talk hockey and don't understand advanced stats are just idiots and that is some bullshit right there.

And I don't think there's anything wrong with discussing good old goals and assists. I mean, it's not like somebody is going to pull a stat out of their asses that makes David Clarkson look good. Sometimes the old ways truly are best.

I would guess that almost nobody who "talks hockey" and has actually made an attempt at understanding "advanced stats" just doesn't understand them at all. 99% of the stuff being done really isn't beyond the level of comprehension of the average hockey fan. The problem isn't so much with people who don't understand, it's with people who completely dismiss it out of hand.

As far as just using goals and assists, they're fine but there are a lot of little things outside of the player's control that can affect them. Linemates, usage/situations, general team style/strategy etc. Since we're both Leafs fans, let's take a quick look at Grabbo's points per game numbers over his career.

2008-9 0.62 PPG
2009-10 0.59
2010-11 0.72
2011-12 0.69
2012-13 0.33
2013-14 0.60

So what happened? Looking at goals and assists tells us that Grabbo just had a shitty year in 2012-13. But let's look at a few other numbers related to his usage to see if there's anything else that can help explain it.

Offensive Zone Start %

2008-09 52.5%
2009-10 55.1%
2010-11 50.2%
2011-12 53.0%
2012-13 36.7%
2013-14 51.6%

Quality of Competition

2008-09 -0.471
2009-10 -0.873
2010-11 0.677
2011-12 0.929
2012-13 2.509
2013-14 -0.338

You can see pretty much the exact same thing if you look at Clarke McArthur. Both players were used in different situations in 2012-13 and then went back to scoring at their usual rates when removed from those situations.

If you want an example of how linemates can affect point totals that's what Tyler Bozak is good for, he outscored guys like Datsyuk and Bergeron last year. The latter two are obviously better defensive players anyway, but they're also much better offensive players despite their slightly inferior points per game numbers. They just didn't get to play with Kessel and JVR every single shift.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I would guess that almost nobody who "talks hockey" and has actually made an attempt at understanding "advanced stats" just doesn't understand them at all. 99% of the stuff being done really isn't beyond the level of comprehension of the average hockey fan. The problem isn't so much with people who don't understand, it's with people who completely dismiss it out of hand.

As far as just using goals and assists, they're fine but there are a lot of little things outside of the player's control that can affect them. Linemates, usage/situations, general team style/strategy etc. Since we're both Leafs fans, let's take a quick look at Grabbo's points per game numbers over his career.

2008-9 0.62 PPG
2009-10 0.59
2010-11 0.72
2011-12 0.69
2012-13 0.33
2013-14 0.60

So what happened? Looking at goals and assists tells us that Grabbo just had a shitty year in 2012-13. But let's look at a few other numbers related to his usage to see if there's anything else that can help explain it.

Offensive Zone Start %

2008-09 52.5%
2009-10 55.1%
2010-11 50.2%
2011-12 53.0%
2012-13 36.7%
2013-14 51.6%

Quality of Competition

2008-09 -0.471
2009-10 -0.873
2010-11 0.677
2011-12 0.929
2012-13 2.509
2013-14 -0.338

You can see pretty much the exact same thing if you look at Clarke McArthur. Both players were used in different situations in 2012-13 and then went back to scoring at their usual rates when removed from those situations.

If you want an example of how linemates can affect point totals that's what Tyler Bozak is good for, he outscored guys like Datsyuk and Bergeron last year. The latter two are obviously better defensive players anyway, but they're also much better offensive players despite their slightly inferior points per game numbers. They just didn't get to play with Kessel and JVR every single shift.

That's all well and good, but those are things that you could determine pretty easily if you watch the games. I don't think there's a soul in Toronto who doesn't know that Grabovski got the shaft from Randy in his final year here, playing on the third line and taking defensive zone faceoffs.

 

[dare2be]

 

[DragonfromTO]

That's all well and good, but those are things that you could determine pretty easily if you watch the games. I don't think there's a soul in Toronto who doesn't know that Grabovski got the shaft from Randy in his final year here, playing on the third line and taking defensive zone faceoffs.

Well sure, because I picked a very obvious example (and one that I knew you'd followed and watched). But still, from reading articles (and comments on them) and listening to people on TV and the radio it sure seemed to me like there were a lot of souls in Toronto who didn't realize that and just thought that Grabovski turned to shit in his last year as a Leaf.

But even if that's true, what about the people outside of Toronto? The people that weren't closely following Grabovski. Did they know? And if not, which would be the best/easiest tool for convincing them of that fact? Giving them a piece of paper with the data I posted, or giving them a laptop with every one of Grabovski's shifts for the past 6 years loaded on it?

 

[beantownmaniac]

Not in 1971 and 1979.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Well sure, because I picked a very obvious example (and one that I knew you'd followed and watched). But still, from reading articles (and comments on them) and listening to people on TV and the radio it sure seemed to me like there were a lot of souls in Toronto who didn't realize that and just thought that Grabovski turned to shit in his last year as a Leaf.

But even if that's true, what about the people outside of Toronto? The people that weren't closely following Grabovski. Did they know? And if not, which would be the best/easiest tool for convincing them of that fact? Giving them a piece of paper with the data I posted, or giving them a laptop with every one of Grabovski's shifts for the past 6 years loaded on it?

Or let's try a couple of questions maybe. I'll stick with just the Leafs for now to make it (much much much) easier. The D are probably a lot easier to do but we'll do them anyway. All questions concern the 2013-14 season.

1. Order the following forwards from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Troy Bodie
Tyler Bozak
Peter Holland
Nazem Kadri
Jay McClement

2. Order the following defensemen from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Jake Gardiner
Tim Gleason
Dion Phaneuf
Morgan Rielly

 

[Swamp Dragon]

But he cant put the puck in the ocean standing at the high tide line

Well it is low tide

 

[dash]

NHL on brink of intelligence explosion - Sports - The Boston Globe

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Well sure, because I picked a very obvious example (and one that I knew you'd followed and watched). But still, from reading articles (and comments on them) and listening to people on TV and the radio it sure seemed to me like there were a lot of souls in Toronto who didn't realize that and just thought that Grabovski turned to shit in his last year as a Leaf.

But even if that's true, what about the people outside of Toronto? The people that weren't closely following Grabovski. Did they know? And if not, which would be the best/easiest tool for convincing them of that fact? Giving them a piece of paper with the data I posted, or giving them a laptop with every one of Grabovski's shifts for the past 6 years loaded on it?

It is my understanding from boards like this one that people outside of Toronto are perfectly fine with the ineptitude of the Maple Leafs.

Like I've said, I'm not arguing their usefulness, I'm arguing how many fans would ever adopt them as information they need to know in order to enjoy the game more. We're into the second decade of advanced metrics in baseball, and some of the biggest baseball fans I know, guys who travel to multiple MLB cities every summer, still can't tell me what exactly WAR is.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Or let's try a couple of questions maybe. I'll stick with just the Leafs for now to make it (much much much) easier. The D are probably a lot easier to do but we'll do them anyway. All questions concern the 2013-14 season.

1. Order the following forwards from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Troy Bodie
Tyler Bozak
Peter Holland
Nazem Kadri
Jay McClement

2. Order the following defensemen from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Jake Gardiner
Tim Gleason
Dion Phaneuf
Morgan Rielly

1. Kadri Holland Bodie Bozak McClement

2. Gardiner Rielly Phaneuf Gleason

If i'm right on #1, are you seriously going to ask me if i'd rather have Bodie or Bozak? Easy answer there, I don't care how much his value is pumped up by his linemates.

 

[BGDave]

Or let's try a couple of questions maybe. I'll stick with just the Leafs for now to make it (much much much) easier. The D are probably a lot easier to do but we'll do them anyway. All questions concern the 2013-14 season.

1. Order the following forwards from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Troy Bodie
Tyler Bozak
Peter Holland
Nazem Kadri
Jay McClement

2. Order the following defensemen from toughest (5 on 5) opposition faced to weakest:

Jake Gardiner
Tim Gleason
Dion Phaneuf
Morgan Rielly

I am interested to see the answer. What does "toughest opposition" even mean? Oppostion with the highest point totals? (Sounds awful old school).

If so, McClement is probably first, and Phaneuf is probably first on D. But thats just using eyes, not a stopwatch or computer

 

[dash]

some of the biggest baseball fans I know, guys who travel to multiple MLB cities every summer, still can't tell me what exactly WAR is.

I know what it is good for (absolutely nothing)

/say it again

 

[forty_three]

Not in 1971 and 1979.

I would argue that the 79 team had no business getting to the point where they got to play the Pointer Sisters, so yes... it worked.

At least the Orioles have been to the playoffs since then.

 

[BGDave]

I know what it is good for (absolutely nothing)

/say it again

 

[DragonfromTO]

1. Kadri Holland Bodie Bozak McClement

2. Gardiner Rielly Phaneuf Gleason

If i'm right on #1, are you seriously going to ask me if i'd rather have Bodie or Bozak? Easy answer there, I don't care how much his value is pumped up by his linemates.

1. Bozak
Bodie
Kadri
Holland
McClement

2. Phaneuf
Gleason
Rielly
Gardiner

The point was not to say that the players that are higher on the list are better than those lower on the list, but to show that the qualitative "mental adjustments" that people might be making based on their perceptions might be the entirely wrong adjustments.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I am interested to see the answer. What does "toughest opposition" even mean? Oppostion with the highest point totals? (Sounds awful old school).

If so, McClement is probably first, and Phaneuf is probably first on D. But thats just using eyes, not a stopwatch or computer

Opposition with the best Corsi.

Phaneuf is first among the D (I was surprised that BBB had him so low), but McClement is last among the forwards. But I suspect that a lot of Leaf fans that claim to watch every single game would have said the same thing as you, and have also inflated McClement's contributions in their mind as a result ("he's not so bad, he plays TOUGH minutes!").

 

[dash]

The NHL Dives Into the Advanced-Stats Pool «