Tanaka Being Posted

[seahawksfan234]

I keep hearing about M's want to make a profit and won't spend this or that, but if last year budget was suppose to be $95M that tells me that they still would have made a profit because no team, especially the M's, set a cap that loses them money. Now you add the $25M each team is getting via new TV deal, that tells me that their no-loss budget should be at $120M. So if we are at roughly $81M, then we should have another $39M to spend while still not losing money. These are their numbers, not mine so I am not sure why I keep hearing we have nothing left to spend but the remaining budgeted money.

$39M should get you Tanaka ($17M), Jimenez ($12M), and Crane ($5M), and another $5M bullpen arm. There just ain't no bats worth spending on the way we are setup.

You have to take into consideration the posting fee. Even if it doesn't count as "payroll" it still means -$20m for the franchise which would cut into profit.

Plus if the Mariners really could spend $120m and run a profit, why are they suddenly so hesitant to spend money? They are currently at around $80m spent, $90m if incentives are met. That is a pretty big gap to $120m.

 

[seahawksfan234]

For what it is worth here are some comparisons of Japanese pitchers before coming to the majors:

Hiroki Kuroda:
JPCL 2006: 1.85 ERA 189 IP
JPCL 2007: 3.56 ERA 179 IP
Career JPCL: 3.69 ERA 1700.1 IP
Career MLB: 3.40 ERA 1120 IP

Yu Darvish:
JPPL 2010: 1.78 ERA 202 IP
JPPL 2011: 1.44 ERA 232 IP
Career JPPL: 1.99 ERA 1268.1 IP
Career MLB: 3.34 ERA 401 IP

Hisashi Iwakuma:
JPPL 2010: 2.81 ERA 201 IP
JPPL 2011: 2.42 ERA 119 IP
Career JPPL: 3.25 ERA 1541 IP
Career MLB: 2.84 ERA 345 IP (2.66 ERA in 314 IP as a starting pitcher)

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
JPPL 2005: 2.30 ERA 215 IP
JPPL 2006: 2.13 ERA 186 IP
Career JPPL: 2.95 ERA 1402 IP
Career MLB: 4.52 ERA 707 IP. In his first two years he had a 3.72 ERA in 61 starts, but in his last 5 seasons he has a 5.41 ERA in 62 starts.

Masahiro Tanaka:
JPPL 2011: 1.27 ERA 226 IP
JPPL 2012: 1.87 ERA 173 IP
JPPL 2013: 1.27 ERA 212 IP
Career JPPL: 2.30 ERA 1315 IP

Listed the most notable Japanese pitchers I could think of. Let me know if I forgot of anyone.

 

[NWinAZ]

You have to take into consideration the posting fee. Even if it doesn't count as "payroll" it still means -$20m for the franchise which would cut into profit.

Plus if the Mariners really could spend $120m and run a profit, why are they suddenly so hesitant to spend money? They are currently at around $80m spent, $90m if incentives are met. That is a pretty big gap to $120m.

1- Nobody really left spend it on and I do applaud them on not just spending for the sake of spending. Cruz isn't worth a big number and the pitchers are all in a holding pattern waiting for Tanaka to sign.

2- I don't see the $20M posting fee coming out of the salary budget just like it didn't for Ichiro per reports at the time. I say it is more like coming from the budget they used for the $10M TV or the money used to build a facility in D.R. or wherever it was.

I could be wrong on both points, but that is how I see it at the moment.

 

[dude82]

At the risk of stating the obvious, we won't know what the Mariners really intend to spend on payroll this year until they've spent it. You have to take every public statement made about spending limits with a grain of salt because you never know when a player who wasn't previously available, either via trade or, in the case of Tanaka, the posting system, might become available and that spending limit suddenly gets "adjusted". I'm sure that if the Mariners really want Tanaka and they think he's worth the money, they'll adjust the budget accordingly to sign him.

 

[seahawksfan234]

1- Nobody really left spend it on and I do applaud them on not just spending for the sake of spending. Cruz isn't worth a big number and the pitchers are all in a holding pattern waiting for Tanaka to sign.

2- I don't see the $20M posting fee coming out of the salary budget just like it didn't for Ichiro per reports at the time. I say it is more like coming from the budget they used for the $10M TV or the money used to build a facility in D.R. or wherever it was.

I could be wrong on both points, but that is how I see it at the moment.

1. IMO I think the Mariners should truly evaluate if they can seriously make a run at Tanaka. If not I think they should do whatever they can to sign a guy like Ubaldo Jimenez or Matt Garza. Once Tanaka is off the board their prices will go up as interest will shoot up for those guys.

2. The Mariners still have to pay $20m. Be it out of the salary budget or whatever budget it is still $20m the franchise has to pay, which is $20m the franchise won't be pocketing. Don't get me wrong, I think it is worth it and the Mariners should pay the $20m and do what it takes to sign him. I just don't see the franchise willing to spend another $40m. Could they? Yes. Would it be a good long-term investment? Yes. But if they are signaling to agents they are reaching payroll limits I don't think they are willing to spend another $40m.

Also regarding Tanaka:

A talent evaluator tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter) that Masahiro Tanaka's control and "off the charts" splitter separate him from Daisuke Matsuzaka at the same age.

 

[seahawksfan234]

The Mariners seem to want to add a top of the line pitcher, as indicated by their interest in David Price.

IMO signing Tanaka is a much, much better option than trading for David Price.

-Tanaka is 25, Price is 28.
-Price is under team control for 2 more years, and does not want to re-sign here. Tanaka appears to probably get a contract around 7 years long.
-In order to trade for Price we have to give up a prime asset like Zunino, Paxton or Walker. We would only have to pay cash for Tanaka. I'd rather give up cash than players.
-If we trade for Price and give up Paxton or Walker (Which is what it would cost), we open up another starting pitching spot we have to fill. If we sign Tanaka, we will have a full rotation.

The only thing that Price has over Tanaka is the fact that he has already shown he is a good major league starter. Tanaka has not pitched in the majors, which gives him a tad bit of risk.

But overall I think Tanaka is a much more attractive idea than David Price and I think the Mariners should seriously make a run at him. The Mariners might risk operating at a loss this year if they do, but the overall roster improvement that would be had by adding Tanaka and Cano would be worth it in the long term. If they give Cano that $240m contract and don't add players like Tanaka they wasted their money and will cripple us in the later years of his contract.

Don't throw away prime pieces like Paxton and Walker in order to get David Price when there is a much more attractive option on the market in Tanaka.

The closer proximity to Japan in Seattle, the substantial Asian population in the Seattle area, the Japanese ownership, a former teammate (Hisashi Iwakuma) and the lack of income tax in Washington should make us an attractive enough option if the Mariners are willing to pay the price.

The Mariners could match an offer by the Yankees and since NY has like a 10% income tax (10% on $150m is almost an entire year's salary) and still be offering him more money.

If the Mariners are willing to pay, they can get him. I just don't think they are willing to pay the price and run the risk of operating at a loss this year.

 

[NWinAZ]

Totally agree. Spend the money, keep the prospects for another day. Saying again, we need to add w/o subtracting if at all possible to gain on the teams 20+ games ahead of us. If Tanaka is anything like Felix, then $17M is well worth it. Heck 5/$100M is still better than trading Walker for Price.

Sign Tanaka and then seriously go all in on Stanton. Everybody is available for the right price. Send them everybody not named Walker and Zunino even if it means 6 guys. I might even consider Seager in the deal moving Franklin to 3B. We have Franklin and Peterson at the position and we have nothing for the OF. You have to consider it.

 

[cezero]

that's entirely too much for stanton.

and yeah, everybody agrees the m's should go after tanaka.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I agree about going after Stanton. I think the biggest obstacle in acquiring him is that it probably would take a Walker or Paxton to get him. I would not be opposed to a deal centered around Paxton, simply because Stanton is such a monster talent at a position of need.

 

[cezero]

stanton was okay this year, and will be around next year. nobody knows what's real and not real with our prospects, so it makes the other team the aggressor in any possible trade, giving them the upper hand to dictate its terms. give our prospects some time to ripen next year, and then see what it takes to get the likes of stanton in 2015.

 

[NWinAZ]

Every year you wait on Stanton is another year less you will have him before he hits arb. Plus, after signing Cano and Felix, you can't play wait til next year game. You are spending $45M a year on two guys who aren't getting younger and are leaving their respective primes real soon. Clock started with the Cano deal.

 

[dude82]

Every year you wait on Stanton is another year less you will have him before he hits arb. Plus, after signing Cano and Felix, you can't play wait til next year game. You are spending $45M a year on two guys who aren't getting younger and are leaving their respective primes real soon. Clock started with the Cano deal.

I understand this with Cano as he's 31, but you really think Felix is leaving his prime real soon?

 

[NWinAZ]

I understand this with Cano as he's 31, but you really think Felix is leaving his prime real soon?

I actually do. He has pitched a lot of innings in his young life and arms aren't meant to last forever at a level he is worthy of $20M+ a year. Look at Verlander. He wasn't the same pitcher as in past years. And as hard it is to believe, Felix has thrown 52 more career innings than Verlander.

I believe Felix is 25th in career innings for active pitchers. He isn't a kid anymore. And of the top 25, he is the only one under 32 years old.

 

[dude82]

I actually do. He has pitched a lot of innings in his young life and arms aren't meant to last forever at a level he is worthy of $20M+ a year. Look at Verlander. He wasn't the same pitcher as in past years. And as hard it is to believe, Felix has thrown 52 more career innings than Verlander.

I believe Felix is 25th in career innings for active pitchers. He isn't a kid anymore. And of the top 25, he is the only one under 32 years old.

I realize that he already has a lot more mileage on his arm than most 27 year old pitchers would have by virtue of how old he was when his career started, but that doesn't mean his prime will be ending anytime soon. Barring injury, there's no reason to suggest that Felix's prime can't last well into his 30's. The great ones tend to reach their primes earlier than the average player and their primes tend to last longer than the average player.

Both Felix and Verlander made their major league debuts in 2005. Felix was 19 and Verlander was 22 at the time of their respective debuts. There was a 73 inning gap in innings pitched between the two that first year with Felix having the higher innings count of the two, which is where most of that 52 inning gap you mentioned comes from (what's weird is that Felix didn't make his debut until exactly a month after Verlander made his).

Since that first year, Verlander has actually pitched 20 more innings than Felix has. Both pitchers had "down years" last year, so I don't know if that's an indication that either player's prime will be ending fairly soon or if it was just a fluke, and I think it's unfair to say of Verlander that he's "not the same pitcher" based on last season's numbers. It just seems ridiculous to me that we're even having a conversation about the end of Felix's prime coming "real soon" given his age and despite the fact that his career started at a younger age than most.

 

[NWinAZ]

Not because of age, but innings. A 3 year old car isn't old unless it has 100K miles on it. Nobody knows how many 'high level' innings Felix has left in his arm, but arms usually don't get better after 2000 innings and that is where he will be at the end of 2014 if all goes well.

I would love to see a stat of how pitchers have done in innings 2000-2500. Maybe it is better than I think, but I doubt it.

And just a side note, Nolan Ryan never had an ERA of 4.00 or higher until his final season at age 46. Maybe Felix is the next Ryan?

 

[NWinAZ]

Here is the active career innings pitched list. I don't really see one SP ahead of him who has not had a major arm issue.

Active Leaders &amp Records for Innings Pitched - Baseball-Reference.com

 

[NWinAZ]

A little reason to give you pause about Tanaka.

Y! SPORTS

 

[seahawksfan234]

I actually do. He has pitched a lot of innings in his young life and arms aren't meant to last forever at a level he is worthy of $20M+ a year. Look at Verlander. He wasn't the same pitcher as in past years. And as hard it is to believe, Felix has thrown 52 more career innings than Verlander.

I believe Felix is 25th in career innings for active pitchers. He isn't a kid anymore. And of the top 25, he is the only one under 32 years old.

Felix's velocity has dropped over the years but he has not regressed at all. Justin Verlander on the other hand relies more on his velocity than Felix does. Call me over-optimistic but I don't think Felix is leaving his prime anytime soon. My only concern with him is that his ERA starts to rise near the end of the season the past two years.

In 2013 Felix had an ERA of 5.82 in August and an ERA of 3.78 in September. Going into August he had an ERA of 2.30 and was in Cy Young contention but finished with an ERA of 3.04.

In 2012 Felix had an ERA of 1.08 in August then had a terrible 5.70 ERA in September and a 11.81 ERA in one October start.

In 2011 Felix had an ERA of 5.18 in September.

The past few years he has tailed off at the end of the year. It could be just a coincidence but that is really my only concern with him.

 

[NWinAZ]

It could also be concentration. It is hard to read a lot into a player who has little to play for at the end of a season. If it isn't that, then arm fatigue would obviously be the next issue.

Only time will tell and I would really hate to lose any more of Felix's prime on crappy teams.

 

[Banned 10x]

Just throwing some more gas on the fire

The market's most intriguing name, Masahiro Tanaka, will undoubtedly continue to generate ample speculation, rumors, and discussion until he chooses a destination. Here are today's notes on the former Rakuten ace, including multiple accounts that tilt towards a reunion in Seattle with Hisashi Iwakuma, who once fronted the rotation of the Golden Eagles alongside Tanaka:

• Competing executives view the Mariners as a real threat to land Tanaka, [ame="[MEDIA=twitter]418802067461791744[/MEDIA]"]tweets[/ame] ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The industry perception, says Stark, is that Seattle can make one more big splash to accompany its signing of Robinson Cano.
• Based on his own conversations with industry sources, Baseball America's Ben Badler agrees that Seattle is the odds-on favorite amongst the ten most likely landing spots. Badler believes that the team has the strongest blend of need and available cash with respect to Tanaka. The other top contenders for Tanaka are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cubs, says Badler, while the Tigers figure as a "sleeper" team and "lurkers" include the Rangers, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels
• Looking at things from the perspective of need, rather than handicapping the results of the market, Seattle again comes out in the lead, according to Dave Szymborski of ESPN.com (Insider piece). Adding Tanaka could be the best way for the Mariners to build towards the approximately ten WAR that the club still needs to add to be a full-blown threat in a reloaded AL West, Szymborski says. Other teams that could most use the 25-year-old Japanese hurler include the Phillies and Orioles.
• Attempting to find comparable players for Tanaka, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron argues that his upside may not come with a sufficient floor to justify a nine-figure investment. Given Tanaka's anticipated blend of low walk, average strikeout, and high groundball rates, says Cameron, reasonable expectations should perhaps be that he'll be above average but not great. While a series of attractive starters have thrived with Tanaka's skillset, Cameron explains, there are plenty of other potential comparables who would never receive those kinds of dollars.