Super Bowl Losers Since the Turn of the Century

[richig07]

I was thinking about how good of a team/coach (and seemingly GM?) that I truly do believe that San Francisco has. I was discussing it with a friend and we both sort of took the "Ah, they'll be back" position. Without giving it much thought.

Then, I got to thinking... and the truth of the matter is that the odds are against it happening soon or even under this regime. That is far and away the statistical probability. Not a certainty, to be sure. However, modern history is rough on their chances. Unless you are the Patriots... basically, it has taken a turnover of coaching and personnel.

2000 - Giants lose. Return in 7 years after turnover.
2001 - Rams lose. Return in 17 years after multiple turnovers.
2002 - Raiders lose. No playoff wins since.
2003 - Panthers lose. Return 12 years later after multiple turnovers.
2004 - Eagles lose. Return 13 years later after turnover.
2005 - Seattle loses. Returns 8 years later after multiple turnovers.
2006 - Bears lose. No return.
2007 - Patriots lose. Return 4 years later.
2008 - Cardinals lose. No return.
2009 - Colts lose. No return.
2010 - Steelers lose. No return.
2011 - Patriots lose. Return 3 years later.
2012 - Niners lose. Return 7 years later after multiple turnovers.
2013 - Denver loses. Return 2 years later after coaching turnover (albeit not much other turnover)
2014 - Seattle loses. No return.
2015 - Panthers lose. No return.
2016 - Atlanta loses. No return.
2017 - Patriots lose. Return following year.
2018 - Rams lose. No return.
2019 - Niners lose. ???

So, you basically have the Patriots, the GOAT dynasty with arguably the GOAT QB/HC tandem ever. Then, one other team did it in a short period of two years. The Broncos with Peyton (not that he did much) and an all-time great defense. Even they needed a HC change to do it.

After that, the shortest is 7 years and all had at least one coaching turnover or rebuild. Most had two. No one has returned the following season since the Kelly/Levy Bills.

Making it to the SB is hard. When a really well put together team like SF loses a tight one. The inclination is to think "they'll be back". But... you only tend to get one shot at the big game per contending window. We shall see if the Niners can buck this strong statistical trend.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

That Niners roster is just stacked man and they just had a great draft to reload offensively with guys like Deebo.

I think they're still the NFC favorite going into next year. The thing that really works against them going forward is that the Seahawks won't go away, the Cardinals are getting better, and the Rams are lurking in the grass too. The NFC West is set up to be a very tough division.

There's a lot of Jimmy G slander going around right now, but truth is he has hardly played in his career and has had more good than bad moments.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

That Niners roster is just stacked man and they just had a great draft to reload offensively with guys like Deebo.

I think they're still the NFC favorite going into next year. The thing that really works against them going forward is that the Seahawks won't go away, the Cardinals are getting better, and the Rams are lurking in the grass too. The NFC West is set up to be a very tough division.

There's a lot of Jimmy G slander going around right now, but truth is he has hardly played in his career and has had more good than bad moments.

Jimmy G sucks.. they got incredibly lucky with the division (rebuilding team, half a team injured with Seattle, Rams ZERO cap room/picks)... and they have ONE pick in the first 4 rounds for draft restocking...

Sherman, Ford, Bosa are all going to be healthy next year? History shows that's likely not the case. And they probably wont be able to retain Sanders since they are bottom 10 in cap room at the moment, not to mention not being able to resign anyone significant. Samuel was decent, Metcalf for Seattle BY FAR was the better choice and has the higher ceiling though.

They barely won the division against Seattle and required half of Seattle's starters out to pull it off. 9ers go 9-7 next year..

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Jimmy G sucks.. they got incredibly lucky with the division (rebuilding team, half a team injured with Seattle, Rams ZERO cap room/picks)... and they have ONE pick in the first 4 rounds for draft restocking...

Sherman, Ford, Bosa are all going to be healthy next year? History shows that's likely not the case. And they probably wont be able to retain Sanders since they are bottom 10 in cap room at the moment.

They barely won the division against Seattle and required half of Seattle's starters out to pull it off. 9ers go 9-7 next year..

I guess what I am struggling with is this:

Who has a better roster than SF in the NFC? Not sure anyone is all that close when ignoring the QB. Jimmy G is probably closer to 12-13-14, but he's not super experienced either. Would be unsurprised to see him turn into a true top 10 guy. Don't buy Jimmy G sucks. He's good. He only looks bad when you put him up against Wilson, Brees, Mahomes, etc. Don't at all feel this is a Goff-like situation where Goff is just a fraud being excessively protected

 

[Clayton]

That Niners roster is just stacked man and they just had a great draft to reload offensively with guys like Deebo.

I think they're still the NFC favorite going into next year. The thing that really works against them going forward is that the Seahawks won't go away, the Cardinals are getting better, and the Rams are lurking in the grass too. The NFC West is set up to be a very tough division.

There's a lot of Jimmy G slander going around right now, but truth is he has hardly played in his career and has had more good than bad moments.

While I agree, I remember thinking almost the exact same thing about Carolina and their roster after their loss.

Niners getting Bosa when Jimmy G got hurt is just something that doesn't normally happen.

The reality is, though, that history will tell you that the best QB in a division will usually make the playoffs and that QB is on the Seahawks. Seattle hit every injury bug this year but DK Metcalf looks legit and they are built to run. That team is set to contend for multiple Super Bowls if they hit on some defensive players in another draft.

I think the Niners are right there with them. I think the Rams coach is also legit and they were 12th in DVOA this year so if their passing game stays online then the Rams aren't that far off. Kyler Murray year 2 could be anything.

I like the Niners odds but they are going to have to go to war to make it back

 

[Robotech]

I was thinking about how good of a team/coach (and seemingly GM?) that I truly do believe that San Francisco has. I was discussing it with a friend and we both sort of took the "Ah, they'll be back" position. Without giving it much thought.

Then, I got to thinking... and the truth of the matter is that the odds are against it happening soon or even under this regime. That is far and away the statistical probability. Not a certainty, to be sure. However, modern history is rough on their chances. Unless you are the Patriots... basically, it has taken a turnover of coaching and personnel.

2000 - Giants lose. Return in 7 years after turnover.
2001 - Rams lose. Return in 17 years after multiple turnovers.
2002 - Raiders lose. No playoff wins since.
2003 - Panthers lose. Return 12 years later after multiple turnovers.
2004 - Eagles lose. Return 13 years later after turnover.
2005 - Seattle loses. Returns 8 years later after multiple turnovers.
2006 - Bears lose. No return.
2007 - Patriots lose. Return 4 years later.
2008 - Cardinals lose. No return.
2009 - Colts lose. No return.
2010 - Steelers lose. No return.
2011 - Patriots lose. Return 3 years later.
2012 - Niners lose. Return 7 years later after multiple turnovers.
2013 - Denver loses. Return 2 years later after coaching turnover (albeit not much other turnover)
2014 - Seattle loses. No return.
2015 - Panthers lose. No return.
2016 - Atlanta loses. No return.
2017 - Patriots lose. Return following year.
2018 - Rams lose. No return.
2019 - Niners lose. ???

So, you basically have the Patriots, the GOAT dynasty with arguably the GOAT QB/HC tandem ever. Then, one other team did it in a short period of two years. The Broncos with Peyton (not that he did much) and an all-time great defense. Even they needed a HC change to do it.

After that, the shortest is 7 years and all had at least one coaching turnover or rebuild. Most had two. No one has returned the following season since the Kelly/Levy Bills.

Making it to the SB is hard. When a really well put together team like SF loses a tight one. The inclination is to think "they'll be back". But... you only tend to get one shot at the big game per contending window. We shall see if the Niners can buck this strong statistical trend.

It really makes you realize the greatness of that Bills team. It's really just basic probability and statistics. What's the rate of the Super Bowl loser making the playoffs the next season? That would be interesting to know. The Niners chances of making it to the Super Bowl is almost assuredly less than 30%, and it may be much lower than that. They can be as good next year as they were this year, but I'd count them very lucky if they were to make it to the Super Bowl next year.

 

[Robotech]

I guess what I am struggling with is this:

Who has a better roster than SF in the NFC? Not sure anyone is all that close when ignoring the QB. Jimmy G is probably closer to 12-13-14, but he's not super experienced either. Would be unsurprised to see him turn into a true top 10 guy. Don't buy Jimmy G sucks. He's good. He only looks bad when you put him up against Wilson, Brees, Mahomes, etc. Don't at all feel this is a Goff-like situation where Goff is just a fraud being excessively protected

Yeah, the Jimmy G sucks thing is a narrative that is really very popular. I think I had ranked him as 8 or 9 this season, which might be too high, but I think he is safely in the top half of NFL QB's.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

It really makes you realize the greatness of that Bills team. It's really just basic probability and statistics. What's the rate of the Super Bowl loser making the playoffs the next season? That would be interesting to know. The Niners chances of making it to the Super Bowl is almost assuredly less than 30%, and it may be much lower than that. They can be as good next year as they were this year, but I'd count them very lucky if they were to make it to the Super Bowl next year.

The Bills and especially the Vikings are two franchises you really are just left baffled they haven't stumbled into a SB victory. The Vikings in particular have had a lot of damn good teams that just flopped unceremoniously in big moments.

 

[NinerSickness]

Jimmy G sucks..

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Jimmy G sucks.. they got incredibly lucky with the division (rebuilding team, half a team injured with Seattle, Rams ZERO cap room/picks)... and they have ONE pick in the first 4 rounds for draft restocking...

Sherman, Ford, Bosa are all going to be healthy next year? History shows that's likely not the case. And they probably wont be able to retain Sanders since they are bottom 10 in cap room at the moment, not to mention not being able to resign anyone significant. Samuel was decent, Metcalf for Seattle BY FAR was the better choice and has the higher ceiling though.

They barely won the division against Seattle and required half of Seattle's starters out to pull it off. 9ers go 9-7 next year..

Almost certainly not. The Seahawks aren't winning a zillion 1 score games either next year so they better get their roster together or the hobbit is going to need a lot of magic to ensure something better than 3rd place in the West, let alone winning it.

I am acutely aware that Sherman and especially Ford are major red flags in the potential injury/decline department.

 

[msgkings322]

I was thinking about how good of a team/coach (and seemingly GM?) that I truly do believe that San Francisco has. I was discussing it with a friend and we both sort of took the "Ah, they'll be back" position. Without giving it much thought.

Then, I got to thinking... and the truth of the matter is that the odds are against it happening soon or even under this regime. That is far and away the statistical probability. Not a certainty, to be sure. However, modern history is rough on their chances. Unless you are the Patriots... basically, it has taken a turnover of coaching and personnel.

2000 - Giants lose. Return in 7 years after turnover.
2001 - Rams lose. Return in 17 years after multiple turnovers.
2002 - Raiders lose. No playoff wins since.
2003 - Panthers lose. Return 12 years later after multiple turnovers.
2004 - Eagles lose. Return 13 years later after turnover.
2005 - Seattle loses. Returns 8 years later after multiple turnovers.
2006 - Bears lose. No return.
2007 - Patriots lose. Return 4 years later.
2008 - Cardinals lose. No return.
2009 - Colts lose. No return.
2010 - Steelers lose. No return.
2011 - Patriots lose. Return 3 years later.
2012 - Niners lose. Return 7 years later after multiple turnovers.
2013 - Denver loses. Return 2 years later after coaching turnover (albeit not much other turnover)
2014 - Seattle loses. No return.
2015 - Panthers lose. No return.
2016 - Atlanta loses. No return.
2017 - Patriots lose. Return following year.
2018 - Rams lose. No return.
2019 - Niners lose. ???

So, you basically have the Patriots, the GOAT dynasty with arguably the GOAT QB/HC tandem ever. Then, one other team did it in a short period of two years. The Broncos with Peyton (not that he did much) and an all-time great defense. Even they needed a HC change to do it.

After that, the shortest is 7 years and all had at least one coaching turnover or rebuild. Most had two. No one has returned the following season since the Kelly/Levy Bills.

Making it to the SB is hard. When a really well put together team like SF loses a tight one. The inclination is to think "they'll be back". But... you only tend to get one shot at the big game per contending window. We shall see if the Niners can buck this strong statistical trend.

This also adds to the value of a guy like Mike McCarthy. Not many coaches have ever won a Superbowl. It's hard to even get there.

 

[Robotech]

The Bills and especially the Vikings are two franchises you really are just left baffled they haven't stumbled into a SB victory. The Vikings in particular have had a lot of damn good teams that just flopped unceremoniously in big moments.

That Bills team was very unlucky to not win once. They faced great competition in all 4 Super Bowl games, but with some normal luck, they emerge with 1 to 2 titles. If they had only won once, people would still say they were unlucky. That they didn't win at all is super unlucky.

 

[msgkings322]

Yeah, the Jimmy G sucks thing is a narrative that is really very popular. I think I had ranked him as 8 or 9 this season, which might be too high, but I think he is safely in the top half of NFL QB's.

I can't think of 10 I'd rather have, and neither can Shark

 

[Fountain City Blues]

This also adds to the value of a guy like Mike McCarthy. Not many coaches have ever won a Superbowl. It's hard to even get there.

Will be really interesting to see if he has learned some lessons. He went from a progressive coach to a guy who got lapped by the rest of the NFL very quickly.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Almost certainly not. The Seahawks aren't winning a zillion 1 score games either next year so they better get their roster together or the hobbit is going to need a lot of magic to ensure something better than 3rd place in the West, let alone winning it.

I am acutely aware that Sherman and especially Ford are major red flags in the potential injury/decline department.

Let's see where things land after free agency.

Seattle has a lot of cash to spend and a lot of picks. The 49ers have ZILCH in both areas.

I'm not talking about where the roster is now... I'm talking about where it is in 7 months.. and the 49ers have fuck all to improve/REPLACE IT, which means - they'll likely be worse. Jimmy Gapoerolololo isn't improving. That guy is a dud and an Andy Dalton clone of terrible when playing from behind or under pressure.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Let's see where things land after free agency.

Seattle has a lot of cash to spend and a lot of picks. The 49ers have ZILCH in both areas.

You're right. Seattle has a big talent deficit to make up though. Won't be a slam-dunk by any means.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

You're right. Seattle has a big talent deficit to make up though. Won't be a slam-dunk by any means.

Fair enough... but I think it's safe to say we all agree they could plug in an 70 lb anorexic girl at right tackle to replace Ifedi and it'd be improvement alone.

 

[Robotech]

The Bills and especially the Vikings are two franchises you really are just left baffled they haven't stumbled into a SB victory. The Vikings in particular have had a lot of damn good teams that just flopped unceremoniously in big moments.

I thought that the Vikings were going to win the Super Bowl with Cunningham and Moss in his rookie season. They looked unstoppable. I thought for sure that they would at least make the Super Bowl. Just goes to show that there are no sure things and that a teams that looks like a juggernaut can quickly drop out of the top.

 

[broncosmitty]

Yeah, the Jimmy G sucks thing is a narrative that is really very popular. I think I had ranked him as 8 or 9 this season, which might be too high, but I think he is safely in the top half of NFL QB's.

I think he's safely mediocre.


Like 70% of the starters in the league.


That said, he hits Sanders instead of overthrowing him, he's prolly SB MVP.

 

[broncosmitty]

I can't think of 10 I'd rather have, and neither can Shark

It's pretty easy for anyone that doesn't own 9ers gear.