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This is from "insider"... Good to see ESPN giving us some love for once...
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By: Kevin Pelton
Is it possible to win too much? Fans eyeing the 2014 NBA draft lottery have had to ask that about their teams this season, and none more so than fans of the Phoenix Suns, who have gone from projected West cellar-dwellers to surprising playoff contenders. While Phoenix still could have as many as four first-round choices next June, the Suns' own choice now looks likely to fall in the tail end of the lottery if not outside it entirely.
The real question here is whether Phoenix's future is brighter now than it was when we were penciling it in for a win total in the teens way back in October. For an answer to that, we can use my SCHOENE projection system, which compares the 2014-15 and 2015-16 projections for the Suns' rotation players before the season to updated ones (and incorporates everyone in the rotation exceeding what was projected of them this season). Let's take a look:
Phoenix's WARP projections
Player October January Change
Eric Bledsoe 16.7 19.3 2.6
Goran Dragic 13.6 16.1 2.4
Channing Frye 2.2 9.2 7.0
Markieff Morris 6.2 7.3 1.1
Gerald Green -0.6 6.2 6.7
Miles Plumlee -1.5 5.9 7.3
Marcus Morris 2.5 5.3 2.8
P.J. Tucker -2.4 0.7 3.1
Archie Goodwin -2.9 -1.2 1.6
Total 33.9 68.6 34.7
Before the season, guards Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic were far and away the most promising Phoenix players. Bledsoe was projected for 16.7 wins above replacement in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons combined, with Dragic not far behind at 13.6. Still, both players have managed to improve their projections by performing at near All-Star levels this season. More than anything, the two point guards have demonstrated that they can not only coexist but thrive; per NBA.com/Stats, the Suns are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions with the Bledsoe-Dragic backcourt on the floor.
Channing Frye is the other proven veteran on the Phoenix roster, but despite his long track record as a stretch big man, he had to demonstrate his health after missing all of last season due to a viral infection in his heart. Not only is Frye back starting and playing more minutes than he did in 2011-12, he's shooting a robust 42.5 percent from 3-point range.
Still, nobody on the Phoenix roster has done more to enhance their long-term outlook than the two players the Suns acquired from the Indiana Pacers in the Luis Scola heist trade. After playing just 55 minutes last season, Miles Plumlee stepped into the starting spot at center vacated by the preseason trade of Marcin Gortat and has been one of the league's most improved players. And Gerald Green, whose salary the Pacers dumped in the trade, has proved to be a bargain as one of the league's most prolific 3-point shooters. The Scola trade would be great for Phoenix even if the Suns didn't have Indiana's first-round pick coming in June.
The Morris twins had shown flashes of potential in their first two years out of Kansas. This season, they've contributed on a more consistent basis. Markieff has been more efficient by cutting down on 3-point attempts and getting to the free throw line more frequently, while Marcus has improved his accuracy from downtown.
Because his primary strength is individual defense, P.J. Tucker is never going to shine statistically, but by becoming a dangerous shooter from the corners (he's shooting 43.5 percent from there, according to NBA.com/Stats), he's made himself into a useful specialist. And even rookie Archie Goodwin appears closer to contributing than his college stats portended.
Together, Phoenix's nine rotation players have more than doubled their projections for 2014-15 and 2015-16, adding an estimated 35 wins to the Suns' bottom line the next two seasons. No draft pick could compare. Over the life of their rookie contract, the typical No. 1 pick produces 21.6 WARP. And while that's three times more than, say, the No. 14 pick (6.8 WARP in that span), it would take most of a draft pick's second contract for the gap between the first pick and the last of the lottery to exceed how much the Suns have improved their outlook by surpassing expectations.
To tank or not isn't the question
The conclusion here isn't necessarily that tanking is a bad idea under the current lottery setup. There's still an argument that Phoenix would be better off with a high draft pick than this year's unexpected success. If you believe this is an uncommonly strong draft, the value of a top-five pick might be higher than the averages indicate, and the Suns' ceiling would probably be greater several years down the road with a high pick than this group. That goes double for teams like the Utah Jazz with a strong cast of complementary players in need of a star. Phoenix might have such an anchor in Bledsoe.
Instead, the lesson to me is in the Gortat trade. Had they kept the veteran big man, the Suns would probably be as successful as they are now if not better, but their future would not be so bright because Gortat has already maxed out his potential. Better to have those minutes going to Plumlee, who might be around for years to come.
The beauty of going young as part of the rebuilding process is that the franchise wins no matter what. Either the young core overachieves, as in Phoenix's case, or a rough season is rewarded with a lottery pick. The franchise's long-term outlook improves in both scenarios.
The chance to improve from within should also hearten fans conflicted about feeling they have to hope their team loses. As long as the team's success is led by players who are part of its long-term future, winning games now doesn't have to be seen as a bad thing. So feel free to cheer on an unexpected run at a playoff spot, Suns fans. (Or unexpected wins, Sixers and Jazz fans.) Your future looks brighter either way.
-------------------
By: Kevin Pelton
Is it possible to win too much? Fans eyeing the 2014 NBA draft lottery have had to ask that about their teams this season, and none more so than fans of the Phoenix Suns, who have gone from projected West cellar-dwellers to surprising playoff contenders. While Phoenix still could have as many as four first-round choices next June, the Suns' own choice now looks likely to fall in the tail end of the lottery if not outside it entirely.
The real question here is whether Phoenix's future is brighter now than it was when we were penciling it in for a win total in the teens way back in October. For an answer to that, we can use my SCHOENE projection system, which compares the 2014-15 and 2015-16 projections for the Suns' rotation players before the season to updated ones (and incorporates everyone in the rotation exceeding what was projected of them this season). Let's take a look:
Phoenix's WARP projections
Player October January Change
Eric Bledsoe 16.7 19.3 2.6
Goran Dragic 13.6 16.1 2.4
Channing Frye 2.2 9.2 7.0
Markieff Morris 6.2 7.3 1.1
Gerald Green -0.6 6.2 6.7
Miles Plumlee -1.5 5.9 7.3
Marcus Morris 2.5 5.3 2.8
P.J. Tucker -2.4 0.7 3.1
Archie Goodwin -2.9 -1.2 1.6
Total 33.9 68.6 34.7
Before the season, guards Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic were far and away the most promising Phoenix players. Bledsoe was projected for 16.7 wins above replacement in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons combined, with Dragic not far behind at 13.6. Still, both players have managed to improve their projections by performing at near All-Star levels this season. More than anything, the two point guards have demonstrated that they can not only coexist but thrive; per NBA.com/Stats, the Suns are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions with the Bledsoe-Dragic backcourt on the floor.
Channing Frye is the other proven veteran on the Phoenix roster, but despite his long track record as a stretch big man, he had to demonstrate his health after missing all of last season due to a viral infection in his heart. Not only is Frye back starting and playing more minutes than he did in 2011-12, he's shooting a robust 42.5 percent from 3-point range.
Still, nobody on the Phoenix roster has done more to enhance their long-term outlook than the two players the Suns acquired from the Indiana Pacers in the Luis Scola heist trade. After playing just 55 minutes last season, Miles Plumlee stepped into the starting spot at center vacated by the preseason trade of Marcin Gortat and has been one of the league's most improved players. And Gerald Green, whose salary the Pacers dumped in the trade, has proved to be a bargain as one of the league's most prolific 3-point shooters. The Scola trade would be great for Phoenix even if the Suns didn't have Indiana's first-round pick coming in June.
The Morris twins had shown flashes of potential in their first two years out of Kansas. This season, they've contributed on a more consistent basis. Markieff has been more efficient by cutting down on 3-point attempts and getting to the free throw line more frequently, while Marcus has improved his accuracy from downtown.
Because his primary strength is individual defense, P.J. Tucker is never going to shine statistically, but by becoming a dangerous shooter from the corners (he's shooting 43.5 percent from there, according to NBA.com/Stats), he's made himself into a useful specialist. And even rookie Archie Goodwin appears closer to contributing than his college stats portended.
Together, Phoenix's nine rotation players have more than doubled their projections for 2014-15 and 2015-16, adding an estimated 35 wins to the Suns' bottom line the next two seasons. No draft pick could compare. Over the life of their rookie contract, the typical No. 1 pick produces 21.6 WARP. And while that's three times more than, say, the No. 14 pick (6.8 WARP in that span), it would take most of a draft pick's second contract for the gap between the first pick and the last of the lottery to exceed how much the Suns have improved their outlook by surpassing expectations.
To tank or not isn't the question
The conclusion here isn't necessarily that tanking is a bad idea under the current lottery setup. There's still an argument that Phoenix would be better off with a high draft pick than this year's unexpected success. If you believe this is an uncommonly strong draft, the value of a top-five pick might be higher than the averages indicate, and the Suns' ceiling would probably be greater several years down the road with a high pick than this group. That goes double for teams like the Utah Jazz with a strong cast of complementary players in need of a star. Phoenix might have such an anchor in Bledsoe.
Instead, the lesson to me is in the Gortat trade. Had they kept the veteran big man, the Suns would probably be as successful as they are now if not better, but their future would not be so bright because Gortat has already maxed out his potential. Better to have those minutes going to Plumlee, who might be around for years to come.
The beauty of going young as part of the rebuilding process is that the franchise wins no matter what. Either the young core overachieves, as in Phoenix's case, or a rough season is rewarded with a lottery pick. The franchise's long-term outlook improves in both scenarios.
The chance to improve from within should also hearten fans conflicted about feeling they have to hope their team loses. As long as the team's success is led by players who are part of its long-term future, winning games now doesn't have to be seen as a bad thing. So feel free to cheer on an unexpected run at a playoff spot, Suns fans. (Or unexpected wins, Sixers and Jazz fans.) Your future looks brighter either way.
